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[Pureauthor]

Not seeing it.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

So 2 years into what is unprecedented domination we're still willing to entertain this kind of foolishness?

Let's just draw the line right now: Whoever still thinks this is an idiot. Plain and simple.

 

[Dabookerman]

Wake me when Nintendo releases more than 3 great games on the console and when they cease to have a shitty online service.
Also, when they stop releasing peripherals like some Power Rangers toy. Oh and charging £70 for a weighing scale.

This won't happen of course, so I will be in my deep slumber FOREVER.

 

[Dirtbag]

Way to much money in DLC for ANY console next generation to launch without a harddrive, and a marketplace.

So 2 years into what is unprecedented domination we're still willing to entertain this kind of foolishness?

Let's just draw the line right now: Whoever still thinks this is an idiot. Plain and simple.

I agree with this. I keep expecting some kind of drop-off.. but I am constantly proven wrong.
I find it more amusing that we are talking 3 years till a nintendo refresh on a console that hasn't needed a price drop yet.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Thinking about it a bit more, the one thing I think Nintendo will try to avoid with Wii 2/II (Wii~ii! ..?) is a built-in HDD. It's just not like Nintendo to install another finicky and delicate piece of breakable equipment into their hardware. They do like their stuff to be kid-proof and there's nothing wrong with that, for their wide-ranging market demographic.

Solid state?

No wait, wasn't there a Speculation-Age thread a few weeks ago after Nintendo licensed some kind of Holographic storage? That'll probably be the next in-built memory.

Then again this is Nintendo and they could go the cheapest route, aka spinning-plate hard disks. It really is a big question mark.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

Maybe in 2006, where have you been?

Nintendo will fuck up my "generations" and people will get used to buy hardware more often.

The videogame industry will become a clusterfuck of hardware upgrading, swaping, etc just like cellphones, portables, players and PC hardware.

And i don't like this shit. Extreme consumerism.

Where is this coming from? Even the GCN, a disaster from nearly every conceivable metric, lasted 5 years.

 

[Suburban Cowboy]

I still say Microsoft will be the first. Wii will continue to dominate while PS3 will continue to gain on 360. I really don't see any evidence that points to Nintendo being in a rush to put out the next gen Wii seeing how their current limitations are not hurting them and sales have yet to slow over the past 2 years

 

[otake]

the point of my stupid sarcastic posts is that nintendo is barely relevant to hard core gamers anymore. they could come out with wii 2 next year and it wouldn't make a difference for us because MS and sony know their audience,

 

[Jokeropia]

Wake me when Nintendo releases more than 3 great games on the console and when they cease to have a shitty online service.
Also, when they stop releasing peripherals like some Power Rangers toy. Oh and charging £70 for a weighing scale.

This won't happen of course, so I will be in my deep slumber FOREVER.

All of these things have happened actually (though to be specific, some were never the case to begin with), but suspect you don't wanna hear about it in the first place.

the point of my stupid sarcastic posts is that nintendo is barely relevant to hardly core gamers anymore. they could come out with wii 2 next year and it wouldn't make a difference for us because MS and sony know their audience,

Fixed.

 

[Pureauthor]

the point of my stupid sarcastic posts is that nintendo is barely relevant to hard core gamers anymore. they could come out with wii 2 next year and it wouldn't make a difference for us because MS and sony know their audience,

They also happen to know that their current audience is a heck of a lot smaller than Nintendo's current audience.

But hey, don't let me dissuade you from thinking that the suits at MS and Sony can't be bothered with what Nintendo's doing.

 

[Suburban Cowboy]

They also happen to know that their current audience is a heck of a lot smaller than Nintendo's current audience.

But hey, don't let me dissuade you from thinking that the suits at MS and Sony can't be bothered with what Nintendo's doing.

Please, we all know Microsoft and Sony care more about making hard core gamers happy than making money

 

[JasoNsider]

I get a really good kick out of reading these. Please keep posting them!

They really, really don't understand Nintendo very well, let alone the industry.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Nintendo will be last, as winning consoles always are.

 

[charlequin]

When you are winning, your incentive is to keep the current generation going for as long as possible. There is literally no conceivable reason to deviate from this plan; there are no external factors (besides when your competitors launch) that would making in a specific year more favorable, and launching itself is a huge money sink that is only made worthwhile by the years of profit it brings on the tail end.

To see who will start a new generation, you have to look at who's not getting the benefit of that profit tail. Last generation, it was Microsoft: their system cost them tons of money to manufacture, so the longer the generation lasted the worse off they were. This time around, it's not clear that anyone really has a good incentive to start over yet: 360 has finally become profitable, PS3 has been improving in overall sales, and all three systems have tons of room for pricecuts. This is why the 2012 figure they cite makes sense despite putting the overall length of the generation at noticeably longer than last time around.

For the record, the market leader has never led off a new generation, and Nintendo has never led off a new generation either.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Wake me when Nintendo releases more than 3 great games on the console

*wakes you*

and when they cease to have a shitty online service.

Also, when they stop releasing peripherals like some Power Rangers toy.

There's the Zapper and the Wheel, both of which are free/come with a free game so I don't see the problem. They're not required to play *any* Wii game, so that's a moot point. The only other non-bundled peripheral is the Classic Controller, which isn't required for most Virtual Console games either. Ignorance...

Oh and charging £70 for a weighing scale.

Don't want it, don't buy it? Even HARDXCORE game reviews know Wii Fit isn't a bathroom scale.

 

[DefectiveReject]

We'll have the PS1 to PS2.
Leading console, hype still high. DOn't give your competitors time to recover and hit them with a next gen machine, with the same hype, same (Although Improved) controls, and a slightly better output than 360 can do, for $250.

It's win win for Nintendo as Wii will continue to sell to masses, some will hop over, and the HD crowd will finally jump on board

 

[schuelma]

I thought it was pretty well accepted on NeoGAF that Nintendo would probably be the first to release a new hardware system due to the limitations the Wii has.

No, that is only well accepted by the same people who believe in Sony's "10 year plan".

 

[otake]

Please, we all know Microsoft and Sony care more about making hard core gamers happy than making money

they do want that wii money but how could a wii 2 prompt them to release their next console? will it be as powerful as the xbox this time? really....

 

[MobiusPigeon]

at the rate nintendo is going starting the next gen war would only be joing sony and MS tech wise the next go round. all sony and MS have to do is repackage the ps3 and 360 with better motion controllers. MS already is already rumored to be doing so so basically you'll get 2 nintendo consoles in 1 sony/ms cycle. Longest gen ever. and i'm all for it if it pans out that way. 360 and ps3 are ridiculously powerful. MS adding bigger drives and allowing installs solves storage issue and helps them prolong this gen and keep pace with sony.

 

[PowderedToast]

Why would they? Wii's still selling like hotcakes. Why invest money into developing more hardware when you can invest into software? Nintendo will hold out as long as they can.

 

[M3wThr33]

A new version of the Wii is NOT a new console.

 

[Pureauthor]

they do want that wii money but how could a wii 2 prompt them to release their next console? will it be as powerful as the xbox this time? really....

Assuming Wii 2 comes out and Sony and MS don't bother to retaliate, that means Nintendo seizes near 100% of the mindshare for the next generation - and since the market largely resets itself each generation, that means Sony and MS are going to have a very, very difficult time catching up. Unless you're implying they skip a generation altogether.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

For the record, the market leader has never led off a new generation, and Nintendo has never led off a new generation either.

The NES was a new generation, unless you consider it to be a part of the Atari or Amiga generation. Otherwise I agree.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

*wakes you*

You know better than to respond to that. Come on.

 

[Gabyskra]

the point of my stupid sarcastic posts is that nintendo is barely relevant to hard core gamers anymore. they could come out with wii 2 next year and it wouldn't make a difference for us because MS and sony know their audience,

You're so deep.

So much bitterness in this thread.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

You know better than to respond to that. Come on.

I have nothing better to do so I though what the hell.

 

[CreatureX3]

is nintendo even part of this war anymore?

Nope. Nintendo is not part of the war for second place.

 

[Dabookerman]

Ha. Ha. Ha.

Too easy.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

When you are winning, your incentive is to keep the current generation going for as long as possible. There is literally no conceivable reason to deviate from this plan; there are no external factors (besides when your competitors launch) that would making in a specific year more favorable, and launching itself is a huge money sink that is only made worthwhile by the years of profit it brings on the tail end.

Not that this sounds bad, but do you have a thought on why PS2 launched when it did? Dreamcast was solidly a non-threat, and GCN and Xbox were quite a lot later to the party.

A new version of the Wii is NOT a new console.

It probably is if it has "faster processing power".

 

[Evander]

Not exactly. There is the argument that Nintendo has no incentive to essentially "kill" the insane momentum of the Wii by releasing a new console. A large number of people feel Nintendo will just ride it out as long as they can.

Yup.

The fact that some folks are upset by the lack of power in the Wii is more than made up for by the fact that, two years in, they are still consistantly flying off shelves.

Look at all of the PS3 revisions and price drops and bundles (360 has done this too, but PS3 is a better comparison point because it launched the same weekend.) Sony has had to switch things up in order to keep the public intereted. That's no strike against them; it's the way that the game has always been played. Nintendo is the fluke here, in that for two years they've been selling the exact same package at the exact same price.

I remember a little before Wii Fit came out an interviewer asked Reggie if there was going to be a Wii Fit bundle. His response was that there was absolutely no reason that Nintendo needed to incentivise sales, since the system is having no problem retaining demand.

 

[Threi]

Ha. Ha. Ha.

Too easy.

Your avatar didn't get quoted.

YOU LOSE

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You know, it simply amazes me that people still think this despite Nintendo's movements. Why would Nintendo go so far in a different direction with the Wii, insisting along the way that super high fidelity graphics don't matter, just to release a console with increased graphics and storage, dusting their hands off and calling it a day?

 

[Opiate]

No, that is only well accepted by the same people who believe in Sony's "10 year plan".

This is intended to be snarky, I know, but really hits on a key point in this discussion. I think many people are unable or unwilling to recognize that the video game industry is moving away from technology as a main driver of sales.

Or applying that directly to the examples at hand: I believe some people, despite incredible sales, despite record profits, and despite current trends, do not think the Wii will last simply because they can't fathom a system with lower technology keeping up. It really wouldn't matter how overwhelming the immediate evidence is. Similarly, despite slow sales and despite losses and despite effectively all the evidence we currently have, some people believe the PS3 will rise through sheer technological force of will.

Actually, I think this is particularly difficult to analyze for people who have been studying the industry for a long period of time. The industry has been driven by raw horsepower for 30 years, since its nascent days; as such, a sudden, unexpected shift of this nature is difficult to cope with.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I remember a little before Wii Fit came out an interviewer asked Reggie if there was going to be a Wii Fit bundle. His response was that there was absolutely no reason that Nintendo needed to incentivise sales, since the system is having no problem retaining demand.

......I'm a bit shocked to discover that that is actually a real word.

You know, it simply amazes me that people still think this despite Nintendo's movements. Why would Nintendo go so far in a different direction with the Wii, insisting along the way that super high fidelity graphics don't matter, just to release a console with increased graphics and storage, dusting their hands off and calling it a day?

Anal-cysts

 

[ThatObviousUser]

Ha. Ha. Ha.

Too easy.

And here I thought I was good at this.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Do these guys realize who they're talking about? These are the same people that kept the Gameboy around for like ten years.

The most likely scenerio is that when HD penetration is high, they'll release a Wii with a better processor, etc, to upscale Wii games with AA (sort of like those awesome emulators for the GC and PS2). This new Wii will probably have new features and better storage.

But a new console? No, no way. They're dominating the market, and Iwata himself has said that they want to keep the Wii around longer than the usual console cycle. An enhanced Wii is a big possibility, though.

 

[Stoney Mason]

Not exactly. There is the argument that Nintendo has no incentive to essentially "kill" the insane momentum of the Wii by releasing a new console. A large number of people feel Nintendo will just ride it out as long as they can.

This. Nintendo I would think would be in no great rush to bounce to next gen although they have that flexibility if they so choose. They are in the best of possible situations.

 

[otake]

Assuming Wii 2 comes out and Sony and MS don't bother to retaliate, that means Nintendo seizes near 100% of the mindshare for the next generation - and since the market largely resets itself each generation, that means Sony and MS are going to have a very, very difficult time catching up. Unless you're implying they skip a generation altogether.

sony and MS have their market. it's not as big as wii's but it's significant and it's growing. believe me wii people don't give 2 shits about MS or sony.

 

[Eteric Rice]

sony and MS have their market. it's not as big as wii's but it's significant and it's growing. believe me wii people don't give 2 shits about MS or sony.

Nintendo is probably going to try to get the entire market, though. It may not seem like it now, but looking at the DS it's reasonable to assume that they'll try again.

 

[Dark Octave]

For the record, the market leader has never led off a new generation, and Nintendo has never led off a new generation either.

What are these anylists getting paid for? Serious question.

Anylist: *wild and ridiculous guess spoken as fact that can't be proven for another three years* "where's my paycheck?"

Anyway, my points exactly. Why would the market leader cut it's lead short to usher in a new era where everyone is starting over from ground zero on an even field?

And when has Nintendo ever done anything like this? We all know how long the NES and even worse, the Gameboy was around before they finally moved on.

I think I may apply for an anylist position and make a few easy bucks.

 

[Pureauthor]

believe me wii people don't give 2 shits about MS or sony.

Whether or not they do is a debate for another time, but you're missing the point. The point here is that MS and Sony are the ones 'givings shits' about the Wii people.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Do these guys realize who they're talking about? These are the same people that kept the Gameboy around for like ten years.

The most likely scenerio is that when HD penetration is high, they'll release a Wii with a better processor, etc, to upscale Wii games with AA (sort of like those awesome emulators for the GC and PS2). This new Wii will probably have new features and better storage.

So, perhaps something like Gameboy -> Gameboy Color, then?

 

[polyh3dron]

Did anyone else initially read the thread title as "Nintendo May Trigger Next War"?

 

[Semantic Continuum]

First thing there is never a consensus in GAF in any matter.

Is it a consensus there are none ?

 

[titiklabingapat]

The Wii will have a ten year lifespan.

 

[Ploid 3.0]

I think Nintendo's will be the last to come out. If you have something that works, why fix it? This is also why I think it'll still be a while before the DS 2 comes out.

Look at how long it took them to make gameboy with color. PSP seem to have pushed them to release DS as soon as they did.

 

[polyh3dron]

Is it a consensus there are none ?

Yes, and this invalidates the above lol

 

[Eteric Rice]

So, perhaps something like Gameboy -> Gameboy Color, then?

More like the DS -> DS Lite. But instead of back lighting you'll probably have upscaling and AA.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

eh no.

First thing there is never a consensus in GAF in any matter.

Needs to be quoted. We had a bitch session in the hot girls threads. I heard gay people took it down. Some people don't like the dreamcast. The fricken triggers are horrible. Some people don't like Mario Galaxy. There will never be a consensus. Not even a solid majority of 70%. Just because they don't respond, doesn't mean they are there. They are just waiting for the inevitable backlash thread. Like Twilight Princess.

 

[Haunted]

Hoo, boy.


I don't think there's been a precedent for the winner of one console generation to be the first one to start the next. Brave prediction by that analyst. Stupid, but brave.