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August 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
I'm still seeing the PlayStation 4 selling through more units this month.

Last year the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One sold through a total of 350,000 units in the USA. This year I expect the combined total to reach somewhere between 400,000 and 450,000 units.
 
C

cakely

Member
Looking at Abdiel's report plus August's Amazon's monthly results and I think we're looking at a close PS4 win.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-08/videogames

#13 500GB Playstation 4 Console - Batman Arkham Knight Bundle

#21 Xbox One Halo 5: Guardians Limited Edition 1TB Bundle (counts towards October 2015 results)

#31 Xbox One Halo: The Master Chief Collection 500GB Bundle

#33 500GB PlayStation 4 Console - Destiny: The Taken King Limited Edition Bundle (counts toward September 2015 results)

#85 Xbox One Halo: The Master Chief Collection 1TB Bundle

#98 Xbox One Madden NFL 16 1TB Bundle

Today is August 28, so those rankings may change for the final month count.
 
Z

ZhugeEX

Banned
Goodacre0081 said:
has the PS4 evened out the big numbers put up by XB1 during November/December last year?
Click to expand...

Mind the Gap

GAP1_zpszvsuvrqv.jpg
 
N

neogaffer1

Banned
ZhugeEX said:
Mind the Gap

GAP1_zpszvsuvrqv.jpg
Click to expand...

Question is if Battlefront will do what Destiny did for the gap last year or if the fact that it's later in the gen and it's very clear it's also on Xbox (a lot of people for a long time thought Destiny was PS4 exclusive) will prevent that from happening.

There's also CoD but it being such a big Xbox franchise for such a while I don't think it'll do as much for PS4 as people seem to hope it will.

Battlefield 4 had Xbox marketing after the last few in the franchise had PS marketing and BF4 PS3 still outsold BF4 360, iirc, as well as PS4>XB1.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[PS4] 250k
[XB1] 245k
[3DS] 105k
[WIU] 45k

Thanks to Abdiel, as always, for their insight^^ Yeah, I am leaning towards a PS4 victory, but with a much closer gap. 3DS keeps doing its thing. WiiU is flat, as Mario maker hype is building, but won't hit just yet.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
I did pretty ok last time, so here's another shot in the dark.

[PS4] 205K
[XB1] 215K
[3DS] 105k
[WIU] 40k

I think XB1 Madden Bundle and the Samsung TV deal push it over the top.

EDIT: Guessing Until Dawn goes for >= 200k. It will possibly be a slow burner though thanks to the YouTube and Twitch communities. People like Pewdiepie are hyping it up and it's attracting a nice size audience in live streams.
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
neogaffer1 said:
Question is if Battlefront will do what Destiny did for the gap last year or if the fact that it's later in the gen and it's very clear it's also on Xbox (a lot of people for a long time thought Destiny was PS4 exclusive) will prevent that from happening.

There's also CoD but it being such a big Xbox franchise for such a while I don't think it'll do as much for PS4 as people seem to hope it will.

Battlefield 4 had Xbox marketing after the last few in the franchise had PS marketing and BF4 PS3 still outsold BF4 360, iirc, as well as PS4>XB1.
Click to expand...

Doesnt matter which one sales the most for a particular game, what matters is that they market an exclusive bundle or special or limited edition. THATs what will push ps4s, battlefront and cod bundles.
 
C

crazyprac

Member
This gonna be good! I think that Xbox bundle did well pushing the hardware. I mean I knew a family getting the bundle just for the TV to upgrade their bedroom set and having the console for their kids.
 
S

stryke

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
I want predict even some software sales.

Madden: 1,000,000
Gears U: 200,000
U Dawn: 175,000
Splatoon: 50,000
Click to expand...

It's not too bad but Sony would probably hope for more with UD. Heavy Rain was a bit under 220k first month although I get the impression that had more marketing muscle behind it and it had the novelty factor of a cinematic interactive movie.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
stryke said:
It's not too bad but Sony would probably hope for more with UD. Heavy Rain was a bit under 220k first month although I get the impression that had more marketing muscle behind it and it had the novelty factor of a cinematic interactive movie.
Click to expand...

It only has 1 week of charting but I'm think some positive word of mouth will help it. Hopefully it can reach 2 million by years end.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Abdiel said:
All right lads and ladies. Abdiel's Best Buy NPD Update.
Click to expand...

Nice writeup. Leaves us room to go either way, but if Best Buy (the company that had the TV deal) doesn't have XB1 clearly the winner for the month, makes it seem less likely that it's the overall winner. Stuff to ponder ...

Ryng_Tolu said:
Was not 108k or so?
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175776933&postcount=661

Trust me said:
Yeah, I am leaning towards a PS4 victory, but with a much closer gap.
Click to expand...

The problem I have with that internally is that PS4 is usually a close victory, anyways, so to have PS4 still win, I have to assume that the incremental increase from XB1's sales (and later flatness) was less than whatever the PS4 win would've been for the month without the sale. That 12K first day report makes that hard to justify. Still not sure which way I'm going this month, but either way, it'll definitely be interesting to see on which side it falls!
 
N

neogaffer1

Banned
N.Domixis said:
Doesnt matter which one sales the most for a particular game, what matters is that they market an exclusive bundle or special or limited edition. THATs what will push ps4s, battlefront and cod bundles.
Click to expand...

i wouldn't agree. it's important to not understate how much ps marketing for destiny helped the ps4--just weeks before it released i knew people who semi-followed video games who still thought it was a ps4 exclusive. plus while the ps4 destiny bundle came with a white ps4 that many people (myself included) found to be very good looking, the battlefront ps4 is compartively decisive, with a lot of people finding it fugly and others liking it. the destiny ps4 also came at a time where it was a nice enough sku that quite a few on GAF (and I'd imagine others not on GAF) bought it as a second PS4 for another room or something similar. it was the perfect storm of being early enough in the gen to be an excuse to get a next gen console if you didn't have one already, having the looks to win people over, being late enough to convince some early adopters that they needed a second ps4, and being marketed well enough to make people think it was one of the only ways to play a highly anticipated game.

the battlefront ps4 has none of that, and we haven't even found out if there's a CoD PS4 or not.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Abdiel said:
Abdiel's Best Buy NPD Update.
Click to expand...

As always thanks for your input, always helps ;)

So, lets fill in the blanks:

PS4 had lead 1st Week (Aug 2-8),

Then XB1 TV deal came and XB1 took the lead the 2nd Week (Aug 9-15),

But then XB1 sales dropped hard after the TV deal and you said XB1 Madden Bundle didn't wow many, making PS4 catch up to XB1 lead in 3rd Week (Aug 16-22),

And finally in the last week people saw Walmart and GS ads and went to BB to price match the deals (supervisor overrides) making PS4 take the lead from XB1 deal on the 4th Week (Aug 23-29)

BB win: PS4

Now on to Amazon Monthly Charts:

PS4 was the clear winner this month with the Arkham Bundle topping the charts but XB1 didn't give up with 3 SKU's charting:

14. PS4 Arkham
32. XB1 MCC
82. XB1 1TB
98. XB1 Madden

Amazon win: PS4

Now Walmart:

Walmart didn't have that many deals for XB1 this month but it's clear it had the best deal of the month for PS4 making people buy a PS4 Arkham with Free Madden, A game of choice and 3 months of PS Plus.

Walmart Win: PS4


Now if we only had GameStop input we could finally close off this post with a clear winner and with GS having the most retailer market share we really need it too.

But since GS had the free Madden for PS4 deal too/XB1 Madden Bundle lets just call it

GameStop Win: Undecided
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
[3DS]250K
[WIIU]65K
[PS4]210K
[XB1]215K

As for software, Madden being #1 and Minecraft being on the top ten is a given, and I think Until Dawn and Rare Replay have a shot at cracking the top ten. Gears Ultimate could go either way, tbh.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Gamestop had the better deal for the Xbox One Madden Bundle. In the final week alongside the launch of Madden 16, Gamestop included the Deluxe edition of the game in the bundle at no extra charge.
 
S

stryke

Member
Boke1879 said:
It only has 1 week of charting but I'm think some positive word of mouth will help it. Hopefully it can reach 2 million by years end.
Click to expand...

Games are usually front loaded. 1 week is enough time for the bulk of the sales.

Had it been a quieter period maybe it could have had some legs but a lot of games are coming out now.
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
neogaffer1 said:
i wouldn't agree. it's important to not understate how much ps marketing for destiny helped the ps4--just weeks before it released i knew people who semi-followed video games who still thought it was a ps4 exclusive. plus while the ps4 destiny bundle came with a white ps4 that many people (myself included) found to be very good looking, the battlefront ps4 is compartively decisive, with a lot of people finding it fugly and others liking it. the destiny ps4 also came at a time where it was a nice enough sku that quite a few on GAF (and I'd imagine others not on GAF) bought it as a second PS4 for another room or something similar. it was the perfect storm of being early enough in the gen to be an excuse to get a next gen console if you didn't have one already, having the looks to win people over, being late enough to convince some early adopters that they needed a second ps4, and being marketed well enough to make people think it was one of the only ways to play a highly anticipated game.

the battlefront ps4 has none of that, and we haven't even found out if there's a CoD PS4 or not.
Click to expand...
The battlefront marketing will kick in as we get closer to the release of the movie, that should push Star Wars fever higher than ever since the last movie. THAT is what will propel ps4 for the holidays. This ps4 is made for Star Wars fanboys, they will buy it. And others who just want a Star Wars ps4. Don't see how you can say it won't do as well as destiny, Black Friday is right around the corner when this bundle releases, Black Friday is the largest portion of that month'a sales. I'm sure sony will push it big. Add in a possible price cut and a cod bundle and they are golden for this holiday.
 
N

neogaffer1

Banned
N.Domixis said:
The battlefront marketing will kick in as we get closer to the release of the movie, that should push Star Wars fever higher than ever since the last movie. THAT is what will propel ps4 for the holidays. This ps4 is made for Star Wars fanboys, they will buy it. And others who just want a Star Wars ps4. Don't see how you can say it won't do as well as destiny, Black Friday is right around the corner when this bundle releases, Black Friday is the largest portion of that month'a sales. I'm sure sony will push it big. Add in a possible price cut and a cod bundle and they are golden for this holiday.
Click to expand...

it wouldn't do as well because A. while Battlefront is highly anticipated, it's not nearly as anticipated as Destiny was, B. people know despite PS marketing that there's going to be a XB1 copy so if they're on 360 and have yet to buy a next gen system, they won't necessarily go with PS4 due to the BC thing, C. a lot of people (possibly even a majority) find it ugly and not alluring like the white PS4 that came with Destiny was, D. Black Friday would push consoles, sure, but that's whether or not the Battlefront PS4 even exists, and E. there aren't going to be people who already own a PS4 selling their current one to buy this one or buying this one as a second one like there was with the Destiny PS4.

I don't find it likely that they'll do a pricecut because they really don't need to. They haven't announced a CoD bundle yet, so I'm starting to think it won't be a limited edtiion special bundle but just a normal console bundled with BLOPSIII. Which is fine, but it's not going to push consoles as hard as people seem to think--remember, we saw with Battlefield 4, it switched marketing from PS to XB after having PS marketing for the last few in the series, and it still sold better on PS platforms despite the fact that XB had timed exclusive DLC. I think we're going to see the same thing with CoD for at least this year's version, and maybe even next year, where it's so associated with XB that any effect PS marketing will have will be much smaller than anyone expects.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
neogaffer1 said:
snipsnip snappity snip
Click to expand...

I find many of your points highly questionable.

A. Anticipation at this point is hard to judge because Disney has yet to start it's marketing campaign in full for the next Star Wars movie. This will drive up interest in the bundle through name alone.

B. Knowing that it will be available on the Xbox One as well is negligible as marketing will be in full effect not only for the PS4 version of the game, but for the bundle as well. Backwards compatibility will be on the back of some peoples minds, but in the end it will be the marketing push this November that will draw more eyes and wallets.

C. Considering we have no barometer at all on how people feel about the consoles design other than on Gaf, this seems like a silly thing to say. People will buy it because it has Vader on it, not because the design is slightly off. Not only that, but the fact that there will be a Battlefront Bundle and a Disney infinity Bundle with the same design gives us a good idea of how many are likely to be produced for the holidays.

Even if people aren't a fan of the design, the fact that there will be a Battlefront Bundle without the design as well will be a drawing point.

D. I'm not even sure what this point means.

E. This point really doesn't matter at all in the long run. Also, do we have any hard numbers on the amount of people who did this for Destiny? I doubt it.
 
F

Fdkn

Member
there aren't going to be people who already own a PS4 selling their current one to buy this one or buying this one as a second one like there was with the Destiny PS4.
Click to expand...

what's this? lol
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Well, Welfare, our friendly bet we made so long ago is about to begin. Are you still feeling good about it? I'm not even sure I remember all the details
 
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