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[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Avatar has a 83% which is good, but not great...

It's not like there weren't a lot of people that, even when admiring the technology, did not like the movie when it was released.

 

[weshes195]

Ayyyyyyyyyyyy




Also the idea that Avatar hate is limited to just NeoGAF seems kinda silly to me. I've seen plenty of backlash against the film elsewhere on other forums. Maybe it ultimately just comes down to whether or not you're looking for hate/praise on the film or something along those lines?

I don't know if you are responding to me or some others (either way I might as well make it clear!), I never meant to imply that Avatar never gets backlash in Real life or other forums, sites, etc... I have been to many different sites and, like other blockbusters that eventually end, people troll everywhere.

However, I mention Neogaf 1. because I browse this site the most often, 2. this isn't a public forum in the sense that anyone can just quickly pop in the first time they see this site.

Additionally, the main problem with users on Neogaf is that the vitrol they have with Avatar is pretty infamous. Google Avatar Neogaf and any thread about (with a few exceptions) gets entirely derailed for some reason by people posting crap that the thread wasn't even about.

I wouldn't be surprised that other forums are 10 times worst but this is a site that is heavily moderated, not intirely public, and a place where so many posters that have preached about how people should be more open minded, that people should not troll, and criticizes many things that makes them sound like they have a moral high ground and then...when a thread gets made that either criticizes Avatar with an opinion or even something about a delay, they quickly go and act like Avatar is all shit.

What makes it worse is that a crap ton of users have done this (unironically) and I don't mean 3 months after the movie came out. People still do it (i.e. this thread) its just that many people don't realize it since no one talks about Avatar as much anymore and wouldn't think that there would be so much shitposting and hate over a silly movie.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I would say it's wrong to assume Avatar 2 will be close to as big as the original. That shouldn't be the expectation.

Literally in the post you quoted, he tells you how it WON'T be as big and WHY it is not the expectation.

I mean...

 

[kevin1025]

It could collapse as hard as Alice Through the Looking Glass did compared to Alice in Wonderand and still make well over a billion.

Unless the budget is $500 million not including marketing (not impossible, but very improbable), thats not a flop.

I'm wondering if we'll ever see a split budget, or if the numbers we see closer to release will be some absurd number of what they all cost together.

 

[TDLink]

Literally in the post you quoted, he tells you how it WON'T be as big and WHY it is not the expectation.

I mean...

What he's saying is it could have a huge drop, take in say 1.6 bil and still be in the top 5 worldwide. I think it's wrong to expect even that. It's just incredibly rare for any film to hit that sort of number despite the original film going much further. It's wrong to expect it to be in the top 5 of all time or anything like that. I think it's going to do well, but that's still having unreasonably high expectations in my opinion.

The movies that have gotten to that point since Avatar was released were revivals of Jurassic Park and Star Wars which were both long running franchises that had a groundswell around them the likes of which Avatar has never built (or really had a desire to build).

 

[Htown]

2015: "Hey guys, remember Mad Max?"

you know, I should probably watch the rest of those movies

I watched Fury Road, which was fantastic.

Then I watched Mad Max, which was awful.

Is The Road Warrior streaming anywhere?

 

[ryutaro's mama]

What he's saying is it could have a huge drop, take in say 1.6 bil and still be in the top 5 worldwide. I think it's wrong to expect even that. It's just incredibly rare for any film to hit that sort of number despite the original film going much further. It's wrong to expect it to be in the top 5 of all time or anything like that. I think it's going to do well, but that's still having unreasonably high expectations in my opinion.

The movies that have gotten to that point since Avatar was released were revivals of Jurassic Park and Star Wars which were both long running franchises that had a groundswell around them the likes of which Avatar has never built (or really had a desire to build).

We just saw Mad fucking Max rejuvenated in 2015 after the last movie of note was Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome in 1985. Guess what? It performed extremely well, 30 years later.

And why would there be a ground swell when there is nothing new to report? Believe me, when the marketing machine kicks into overdrive for A2, people will be reminded of what it was. That first trailer release is gonna be bananas around here, regardless of how you feel about A1.

So what you are saying is, Avatar 2, in 2020, won't be able to muster about what Furious 7 made in 2015?

I think I will take my chances with KSwizzle.

 

[Madness]

The GRRM of film directors now it seems. He will deliver and it will be the biggest grossing movie of all time again, but you'll have someone who wasn't born when the first released be in middle school, on the cusp of high school.

 

[Lord Morairty007]

How does 20th-century fox not stop funding this? This most likely means they would get increase the licensing fee of the Avatar IP for Disney. Or is that already settled?

 

[mgarnica89]

Does this film get released as Avatar 2 ( or Avatar II) or does it get released with some type of subtitle? I think they stay with 2/ but you never know. Maybe a combination of both like Terminator 2: Judgement Day.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

I know people have a hard on for practical effects, but they ain't coming back for big budget sci-fi/fantasy movies. Practical creatures almost always look like shit.

I mean, I know it's limited data points, and not to say that CG isn't/won't be very prominent in either, but there's definitely a significant increase in practical effect work in the newest Star Wars films vs the prequels, and Jurassic World 2 is also promising far more practical effects than Jurassic World. Particularly in the creature departments of both.

 

[gamz]

Does this film get released as Avatar 2 ( or Avatar II) or does it get released with some type of subtitle? I think they stay with 2/ but you never know. Maybe a combination of both like Terminator 2: Judgement Day.

Avatar World

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Avatar World

It would be called Pandora if anything.

 

[kswiston]

What he's saying is it could have a huge drop, take in say 1.6 bil and still be in the top 5 worldwide. I think it's wrong to expect even that. It's just incredibly rare for any film to hit that sort of number despite the original film going much further. It's wrong to expect it to be in the top 5 of all time or anything like that. I think it's going to do well, but that's still having unreasonably high expectations in my opinion.

The movies that have gotten to that point since Avatar was released were revivals of Jurassic Park and Star Wars which were both long running franchises that had a groundswell around them the likes of which Avatar has never built (or really had a desire to build).

Avatar 2 is still going to be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, and every form of news media with even the slightest entertainment coverage is going to be sure to cover that fact. It will have a level of awareness that very few films receive. The fact that James Cameron is so eccentric will just generate even more free buzz.

 

[gamz]

Avatar 2 is still going to be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, and every form of news media with even the slightest entertainment coverage is going to be sure to cover that fact. It will have a level of awareness that very few films receive. The fact that James Cameron is so eccentric will just generate even more free buzz.

The delays and such only heighten the mystique.

 

[kswiston]

The delays and such only heighten the mystique.

There's also the fact that the first film made so much that there is a ton of wiggle room. $500M in China + 40% of the last film worldwide outside of China is $1.5B.

Granted, by the end of 2020, I doubt that $1.5B will be good enough to crack the Worldwide Top 10.

 

[2Smashed4U]

Man, do that many people give a shit about Avatar to warrant an 11 year gap between the first one and its sequel?

 

[Dash_Riprock]

The GRRM of film directors now it seems. He will deliver and it will be the biggest grossing movie of all time again, but you'll have someone who wasn't born when the first released be in middle school, on the cusp of high school.

Please don't compare the two. I imagine Avatar 2 is not getting made because Cameron is a perfectionist when it comes to technology and wants the 3D/4D/VR/whatever the fuck he'll use this time to be perfect and able to meet his vision. I have no doubt he's already written and re-written the script(s) several times already (cliche and generic as they might be).

GRRM, meanwhile, I imagine sitting on his ass watching a football game and/or posting nonsense on his blog, all while coming up with excuses for why he shouldn't write today.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Man, do that many people give a shit about Avatar to warrant an 11 year gap between the first one and its sequel?

Doesn't matter what we think; the guy making them seems to think it needs the time.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

There's also the fact that the first film made so much that there is a ton of wiggle room. $500M in China + 40% of the last film worldwide outside of China is $1.5B.

Granted, by the end of 2020, I doubt that $1.5B will be good enough to crack the Worldwide Top 10.

Huh, wow, yeah you're right. 6/10 are above that mark right now, and Star Wars 8 and 9, at least one of the Avengers, and Lion King should easily round out the rest, and I'm sure there's more than that. Crazy. I still remember when $1b was insane and now we're at almost 30 (albeit with a couple re-releases).

 

[old manatee]

Man, do that many people give a shit about Avatar to warrant an 11 year gap between the first one and its sequel?

Yeah, you might not know this because you've been living in a gaf echo chamber, but in the real world, people are fucking mad about Avatar. To this day. If I'm talking to the hair dresser that dresses my hair and we've already exhausted the weather, I go right to the Avatar because it's so universal.

 

[kswiston]

Huh, wow, yeah you're right. 6/10 are above that mark right now, and Star Wars 8 and 9, at least one of the Avengers, and Lion King should easily round out the rest, and I'm sure there's more than that. Crazy. I still remember when $1b was insane and now we're at almost 30 (albeit with a couple re-releases).

Avatar was the fifth film to pass $1B worldwide.

 

[gamz]

He talks a lot about glasses free 3D. I wonder if that's even possible in 3 years. Or he's waiting for theater owners get up to speed on tech he wants to deliver.

 

[Rentahamster]

It's funny how in the pop culture zeitgeist, the movie industry can be shit on for churning out sequel after sequel like fast food, or it can be shit on for taking too long. We just love to argue.

 

[Livingskeletons]

Does this film get released as Avatar 2 ( or Avatar II) or does it get released with some type of subtitle? I think they stay with 2/ but you never know. Maybe a combination of both like Terminator 2: Judgement Day.

A2.

 

[jett]

This franchise got a new logo last year so I'd say it's definitely keeping the name.

He talks a lot about glasses free 3D. I wonder if that's even possible in 3 years. Or he's waiting for theater owners get up to speed on tech he wants to deliver.

It's not. Don't expect it. We'll get glasses 3D+HFR of some sort.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's funny how in the pop culture zeitgeist, the movie industry can be shit on for churning out sequel after sequel like fast food, or it can be shit on for taking too long. We just love to argue.

It's funny how in our fast food culture, a McDonalds can be shit on for serving me cold coffee or for serving me coffee that gives me third degree burns for drinking it.

Sorry, but lots of people want things in moderation, lol.

 

[reptilescorpio]

I would have met my now wife and our kid would be old enough to see Avatar 2 in theaters with me in the time it takes between Avatar 1 and 2.

Same lol

 

[Bobby Roberts]

The word "vitriol" is, I feel, not really appropriate as a descriptor of the negative (ish) responses to the film being remarked upon/defended against

It's getting used a lot in this thread and I feel like it's kinda skewing and/or shoving straw up the sleeves of those arguments.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

There's more vitriol over the supposed vitriol than the actual vitriol that's being vitriolically discussed. Some would probably vitriolically claim Bobby is vitriolic over balance of vitriol over claimed vitriol versus actual vitriol.

 

[TDLink]

We just saw Mad fucking Max rejuvenated in 2015 after the last movie of note was Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome in 1985. Guess what? It performed extremely well, 30 years later.

And why would there be a ground swell when there is nothing new to report? Believe me, when the marketing machine kicks into overdrive for A2, people will be reminded of what it was. That first trailer release is gonna be bananas around here, regardless of how you feel about A1.

So what you are saying is, Avatar 2, in 2020, won't be able to muster about what Furious 7 made in 2015?

I think I will take my chances with KSwizzle.

Mad Max Fury Road brought in less than 400k worldwide. It was still a huge success and a great movie, but it didn't come anywhere close to 1.6 billion much less what Avatar did.

I am not saying Avatar 2 won't be a success. I absolutely think it will be. I just don't think it's guaranteed to be a top 5 grossing film of all time success just because the original was #1.

Fast and Furious has gotten as popular as it has because of shift in the franchise's genre to ridiculous widely appealing action stunts, promotion of a very diverse non-white focused cast, and international locations. The money Furious 7 made was built on films that were slowly building up to it every couple of years. It also had the Paul Walker dying factor which I am sure provided some boost (though how much is uncertain). But all that put together, the film still didn't quite make it to 1.6 billion.

Avatar 2 is still going to be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, and every form of news media with even the slightest entertainment coverage is going to be sure to cover that fact. It will have a level of awareness that very few films receive. The fact that James Cameron is so eccentric will just generate even more free buzz.

I completely agree with you. I am simply skeptical that it is going to reach top 5 status under the assumption that since the first one did then this one will too. Again, I liked Avatar. I am excited about Avatar 2 (and any Cameron film). I just also think we should temper expectations a little bit.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

The word "vitriol" is, I feel, not really appropriate as a descriptor of the negative (ish) responses to the film being remarked upon/defended against

It's getting used a lot in this thread and I feel like it's kinda skewing and/or shoving straw up the sleeves of those arguments.

The reactions to Avatar being referenced are not limited on this forum to THIS particular thread.

Avatar, on this forum, has been met with baseless hatred at several points since its initial release.

 

[kswiston]

Same lol

I was married a few months before Avatar came out. My daughter will be just shy of 7 by the time the sequel releases.

At least I will still be in my 30s if they don't delay the film again!

 

[TDLink]

There's more vitriol over the supposed vitriol than the actual vitriol that's being vitriolically discussed. Some would probably vitriolically claim Bobby is vitriolic over balance of vitriol over claimed vitriol versus actual vitriol.

Real talk, I see the word "vitriol" used more on neogaf in a given week than any other time in my entire life put together.

 

[Psychoward]

It would be called Pandora if anything.

so something like Avatar 2: The Pandora World?

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Real talk, I see the word "vitriol" used more on neogaf in a given week than any other time in my entire life put together.

There are definitely words that pop up in the GAF lexicon and become massively overused.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Mad Max Fury Road brought in less than 400k worldwide. It was still a huge success and a great movie, but it didn't come anywhere close to 1.6 billion much less what Avatar did.

Sigh...this isn't a 1:1 comparative.

MM:FR was the most successful entry in the series and it came out 30 years after the last one.

You are the one suggesting that it is a better bet that Avatar will massively underachieve (due to time away and/or public indifference) when the factors that Bobby and KSwizzle are positing are actually reasonable and closer to a projected reality.

 

[Quintin DM]

My god I can't believe how many times this has been delayed, it's getting a bit pathetic at this point tbh. Whenever this does come out though I feel the impact won't be anywhere near what the first one was. Obliviously tons of people went to go see it mostly I think for its technical achievements but I don't know anyone who loved the movie. Most people I know thought was ok or good, but not amazing. I suspect no where near as many people will see the sequel, but it'll probably still do quite well.

 

[TDLink]

Sigh...this isn't a 1:1 comparative.

MM:FR was the most successful entry in the series and it came out 30 years after the last one.

You are the one suggesting that it is a better bet that Avatar will massively underachieve (due to time away and/or public indifference) when the factors that Bobby and KSwizzle are positing are actually reasonable and closer to a projected reality.

No. I think Avatar will clear 1 billion easy, which is still a massive success, because that's just what big blockbusters with good marketing tend to do now. That's not underachieving, it's still fantastic. I think it exceeding that and getting into the top 5 of all time range is possible but not a sure bet, and people are treating it like it is due to how well the first one did. Time away is not going to necessarily hurt the Avatar franchise, but it's not going to help. Especially with all these big franchises with 2-3 movies per year vying for attention now.

Fury Road, money it made being much lower than Avatar (or Avatar 2 probably will make) is irrelevant. Fury Road had legs at the box office because it was a damn good movie which happened to also be expertly directed and that generated good word of mouth. It's not the same type of success Avatar had. It didn't have smash hit success from its opening weekend. It was a slow and steady wins the race type of thing. Avatar was a smash hit and had the legs that continued it being a smash hit for literally months.

 

[kswiston]

At some point in the near future, we are going to have to give up $1B as a box office high water mark. By the time Avatar comes out, that's already going to be bottom of the Top 50 of all time territory. We're also already at the stage that missing the $1B mark for certain mega-budget ($225M+) films elicits a "what went wrong?" response.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

No. I think Avatar will clear 1 billion easy, which is still a massive success, because that's just what big blockbusters with good marketing tend to do now. That's not underachieving, it's still fantastic. I think it exceeding that and getting into the top 5 of all time range is possible but not a sure bet, and people are treating it like it is due to how well the first one did. Time away is not going to necessarily hurt the Avatar franchise, but it's not going to help.

You honestly think, with a straight face, that a movie hemorrhaging $1.7 of a $2.7 billion take would be viewed as "fantastic"?

You HAVE to be trolling.

Fury Road, money it made being much lower than Avatar (or Avatar 2 probably will make) is irrelevant. Fury Road had legs at the box office because it was a damn good movie which happened to also be expertly directed and that generated good word of mouth. It's not the same type of success Avatar had. It didn't have smash hit success from its opening weekend. It was a slow and steady wins the race type of thing. Avatar was a smash hit and had the legs that continued it being a smash hit for literally months.

And you have a time machine where you know for certain that A2 won't be a damn good movie which happens to also be expertly directed and that generates good word of mouth with legs?

 

[GhaleonEB]

The first sequel will now be released on Dec. 18, 2020, followed by Dec. 17, 2021 and then three years later on Dec. 20, 2024 and then Dec. 19, 2025.

The first might happen. The second won't, it will push to make it a two year gap. No way they get out films in back to back years.

 

[FyreWulff]

The first might happen. The second won't, it will push to make it a two year gap. No way they get out films in back to back years.

i thought he was filming all 4 sequels at once?

 

[Caddywompus]

It's funny how in the pop culture zeitgeist, the movie industry can be shit on for churning out sequel after sequel like fast food, or it can be shit on for taking too long. We just love to argue.

There just needs to be a balance. You're never going to please everybody, they want something familiar and nostalgic but at the same time fresh and different.

Personally I wish these recent rash of movies would take a little more time to polish the films for the better, but I don't think 11 years is going to improve upon a movie considering what we got from the original that took 15 some old years to complete.

 

[Branduil]

Cameron releasing 4 films in 5 years seems wildly optimistic to me regardless of how he films them.

 

[TDLink]

You honestly think, with a straight face, that a movie hemorrhaging $1.7 of a $2.7 billion take would be viewed as "fantastic"?

You HAVE to be trolling.



And you have a time machine where you know for certain that A2 won't be a damn good movie which happens to also be expertly directed and that generates good word of mouth with legs?

I am not trolling. The movie isn't costing $1 bill to make. I don't even think all 4 put together are going to add up to that. I am sure FOX has expectations that are higher than that but it'd still be a great profitable success for the studio if it cleared $1 bil, which I don't think it will have a problem making.

All I am saying is, temper expectations. I think A2 will be great. I also think it has to be better than the original to have those kinds of legs again. People were wowed by the world of Pandora, now visual effects have come a long way where we're seeing those kinds of impressive visuals in films every year.

I don't get why you need to be so defensive about the film when I'm not even trying to say it will be bad or bomb or anything like that. I am simply stating it's not a guarantee it will reach the same level of success or the level of success we saw The Force Awakens hit.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I don't get why you need to be so defensive about the film when I'm not even trying to say it will be bad or bomb or anything like that. I am simply stating it's not a guarantee it will reach the same level of success or the level of success we saw The Force Awakens hit.

I'm not defensive at all. The difference between me and you is, I'm looking at actual data and trends (courtesy of KSwizz) and you are going on "gut" with nothing further.

I'll take the data.

TFA is a straw man that I don't quite understand you using...

 

[wachie]

What?

You Chilean, you

That North American qualifier.

When the film starts being hailed in headlines as the biggest film of all time, it's something different. And there is a big margin between TFA and Avatar.

jennifer lawrence okay.

 

[TDLink]

I'm not defensive at all. The difference between me and you is, I'm looking at actual data and trends (courtesy of KSwizz) and you are going on "gut" with nothing further.

I'll take the data.

TFA is a straw man that I don't quite understand you using...

TFA made 2 bil at the box office, is in the top 5 (the highest grossing non-Cameron film actually), but considerably lower than Avatar. That's why I was using it.

There is no real data or trends that are reliable for this situation. We're talking about the sequel to the biggest film of all time, but 11 years (at least) later, without a significant fanbase around the franchise.

If you want to look at data and trends, then look at the top grossing pictures after the two Cameron films. They're all sequels to huge franchises that have big followings, and in the case of #3 (TFA) and #4 (Jurassic World) they're both satiating demand after a very long gap in the last entry of that franchise. Avatar 2 doesn't have that fervent fanbase that is salivating for a new movie in the same way.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

There is no real data or trends that are reliable for this situation.

Sure, but we have a guy in KSwizz who is really good a crunching numbers and projecting plausible outcomes (come to the BO threads and watch him work). Case in point, dude was accurately predicting the performance of F8 vs. F7 almost a year out with scary accuracy.

Conversely, everything you are posting about expectations of performance are based on how you feel.

Not even close to the same but you are entitled to post just like everyone else.