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Clinton aiming for Arizona, as 538 shows her leading in the state

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J

johnsmith

remember me
There's been a lot of talk of expanding the battleground map this year, but this is the first state where she's really investing resources outside the traditional battleground states. She's been tied or leading in all the post-tape polls, and with all the stories of increased voter registration with Mexican Americans I think she has a good chance of flipping it.

http://nytimes.com/2016/10/18/us/po...campaign.html?referer=https://www.google.com/

Clinton 58% to win Arizona
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/

Sam Wang also thinks she can win it
http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is planning its most ambitious push yet into traditionally right-leaning states, a new offensive aimed at extending her growing advantage over Donald J. Trump while bolstering down-ballot candidates in what party leaders increasingly suggest could be a sweeping victory for Democrats at every level.

Signaling extraordinary confidence in Mrs. Clinton’s electoral position and a new determination to deliver a punishing message to Mr. Trump and Republicans about his racially tinged campaign, her aides said Monday that she would aggressively compete in Arizona, a state with a growing Hispanic population that has been ground zero for the country’s heated debate over immigration.

Mrs. Clinton is “dramatically expanding” her efforts in Arizona, her campaign manager, Robby Mook, told reporters on Monday. She is pouring more than $2 million into advertising and dispatching perhaps her most potent surrogate, Michelle Obama, for a rally in Phoenix on Thursday.

In Indiana and Missouri, Mr. Mook said, the campaign will spend a total of $1 million to drive voter turnout, despite what he acknowledged was an “uphill battle” for Mrs. Clinton in two states that could determine control of the Senate. Mrs. Clinton is also directing more money to a series of presidential battleground states with competitive House races.

The most brazen push, though, is in Arizona, where the campaign has also scheduled appearances on Mrs. Clinton’s behalf from her daughter, Chelsea, and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Mr. Mook added that Mrs. Clinton may appear there herself in short order. “We certainly hope to get her there,” he said.

Mrs. Clinton’s aides were intrigued by both Arizona and Georgia, and they surveyed voters in each state. Arizona appeared more promising, officials said, because of its combination of Mormons, Hispanics and Native Americans and because the officials found white voters in Georgia to be more resistant to Mrs. Clinton.
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Put me in Arpaio's tent city if old.
 
C

Corpekata

Banned
Not too surprising, I think Trump will struggle with the normally Red states that have a high Hispanic population. Though I do know more than a few people here that are diehard Trumpeters.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
Corpekata said:
Not too surprising, I think Trump will struggle with the normally Red states that have a high Hispanic population. Though I do know more than a few people here that are diehard Trumpeters.
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Not to mention the relationship between Trump and McCain, who is still a fairly popular politician in his own state (and probably going to win his election).
 
S

Syncytia

Member
hodayathink said:
Not to mention the relationship between Trump and McCain, who is still a fairly popular politician in his own state (and probably going to win his election).
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Anecdotal and whatnot, but I know that McCain has lost support for having endorsed Trump and then unendorsing Trump. How much remains to be seen. The diehard R's will still vote for him at the end of the day. McCain losing is a longshot.
 
B

BuggyDClown

Member
I wish they would campaign hard in Texas, just to get it as tight as possible. I know it's more important to spend time in AZ and the like, but man would it be a sight to see one day.
 
S

Sheroking

Member
Bruce Springsteen said:
and that's all that matters. Clinton is going to win, it doesn't matter if it's by 1% or 12%. The senate seats are far more important in needing to switch parties
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Flipping red states today has advantages in the future. It's how you take a former red stronghold, put down roots and turn it into a swing state over time.

This is likely to be McCain's last term. The man is 80.
 
L

leroidys

Member
I don't have a huge amount of faith in this single poll, but oh man oh man oh man if these numbers are real and we could kick old man McCain out of office that would really be something.
 
B

Bruce Springsteen

Member
Sheroking said:
Flipping red states today has advantages in the future. It's how you take a former red stronghold, put down roots and turn it into a swing state over time.

This is likely to be McCain's last term. The man is 80.
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Is Arizona really a swing state or is Trump just that terrible? I think it's the latter
 
B

Bluth54

Member
GiantEnemyGoomba said:
What the heck is the GOP gonna do when Texas starts becoming blue? Actually make a change in their party?
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That's what they're going to have to do if they want one of their candidates to have a decent chance of becoming president but I don't see them doing ti for another few election cycles, I'm sure their loss this cycle will be blamed on Trump.
 
S

Sheroking

Member
Bruce Springsteen said:
Is Arizona really a swing state or is Trump just that terrible? I think it's the latter
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It's not a swing state, it can be someday. Taking advantage of these openings to grow roots, particularly with younger voters and undecided or unengaged voters, is how you make that happen.

It's not like red and blue states are just permanently frozen in their ideology for all future generations. Especially when they have an increasingly large immigrant population.
 
A

antonz

Member
Bruce Springsteen said:
Is Arizona really a swing state or is Trump just that terrible? I think it's the latter
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As someone living in Arizona it is still very much a Red State. Trump however is just way too much of a piece of shit for many elements of the Conservatives in the state. He is extremely toxic to the Mormons and many of the republicans in Arizona are not of the bible belt variety so changes perspective a lot.

I mean Arizona is likely to approve passage of a bill raising minimum wage to $12 an hour over the next 3 years so the state has its issues but it progresses better than most red states. Big Business is trying hard to stop it though by going after the seniors claiming raising the minimum wage would render senior health care more expensive.
 
C

Cairnsay

Banned
Sheroking said:
It's not a swing state, it can be someday. Taking advantage of these openings to grow roots, particularly with younger voters and undecided or unengaged voters, is how you make that happen.

It's not like red and blue states are just permanently frozen in their ideology for all future generations. Especially when they have an increasingly large immigrant population.
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As a UK'er, I'm not fully aware of just how, erm... swingy (or unswingy) some states are. If Arizona goes Dem this election, does Clinton have any chance at keeping it blue in 4 years. Or will any 'regular' Republican be able to win it back pretty easily?
 
S

Sheroking

Member
Cairnsay said:
As a UK'er, I'm not fully aware of just how, erm... swingy (or unswingy) some states are. If Arizona goes Dem this election, does Clinton have any chance at keeping it blue in 4 years. Or will any 'regular' Republican be able to win it back pretty easily?
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It'd likely swing back to the Republicans. But you won an election, put up roots, set precedent and "weakened" the stronghold - so to speak.

I live in Edmonton, Alberta. Alberta is Canada's biggest den for conservative politics. About a year ago, the NDP (the leftist of the three major Canadian parties) took advantage of conservative foibles and unpopular leadership and took over the Provincial government, ending a decades long run of unchallenged conservative governments.

Same principle.

They'll lose it back soon enough, but you've taken something that was strong and broken it. There's ground work now. There are going to be more NDP supporters in Alberta than there was 10 years ago for the next two or three generations. Alberta has a better chance to swing left a bit in the next 10-20-30 years than they did before the NDP upset the conservatives.
 
J

jakomocha

Member
I really hope she flips it. Even though she obviously doesn't need it to win or even to have a landslide victory, it going to her would lay down the groundworks for it becoming a swing state and then maybe one day even a blue state.

It'd be amazing if she flipped any other red states too. I know Georgia and Utah are looooong shots (and Texas is a dream), but man, that'd be awesome. Didn't polling show that Alaska is really close? Why isn't she campaigning there? I guess it's not really worth it when it's only 3 electoral points, but I'd still love to see it go blue.
 
H

HariKari

Member
jakomocha said:
I really hope she flips it. Even though she obviously doesn't need it to win or even to have a landslide victory, it going to her would lay down the groundworks for it becoming a swing state and then maybe one day even a blue state.

It'd be amazing if she flipped any other red states too. I know Georgia and Utah are looooong shots (and Texas is a dream), but man, that'd be awesome. Didn't polling show that Alaska is really close? Why isn't she campaigning there? I guess it's not really worth it when it's only 3 electoral points, but I'd still love to see it go blue.
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Demographically, AZ should turn blue eventually. The cities are relatively progressive for the southwest.

It's nice for the state I live in to be relevant for once. I've only seen one Trump poster so far and that was in some guys backyard sticking up over his fence. Plenty of Hillary commercials.
 
M

Mully

Member
Arizona is a swing state this election and Clinton has a good chance at winning Alaska, Utah, Missouri, and Georgia as well; but none of these states would be in play if say John Kasich was the GOP candidate. Arizona won't permanently swing blue for a while.

Trump is just that bad; in fact the poll differences between Trump and Clinton in Texas and South Dakota are within the margin of error (+/- 5%) which show that even in stalwart red states he's doing very poorly in context of how largely Romney won both states in 2012.

Trump is a toxic candidate and he's done a great job at convincing 15-20% of loyal GOP voters to either vote Clinton or a third party candidate, or simply not vote at all. That said, it's an intelligent future proof strategy to take advantage of Trump's poor numbers in major red states and convince younger voting blocs to vote Democratic should certain demographics align (See: Texas, Arizona, Georgia).
 
K

Korey

Member
Aren't we just waiting for all the old people to die?

Are young people in red states red enough to keep the states red as the 40+ year olds start dying out? I'm not familiar with this demographic (young people in red states). Are they still pretty conservative?

I mean everything's trending towards the left. Young people are less religious, have more access to information, have more gay friends, etc. Doesn't this guarantee all these states moving left as time goes on?
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Korey said:
Aren't we just waiting for all the old people to die?

Are young people in red states red enough to keep the states red after that happens? I'm not familiar with that demographic (young people in red states). Are they still pretty conservative?

I mean everything's trending towards the left. Young people are less religious, have more access to information, have more gay friends, etc. Doesn't this guarantee all these states moving left as time goes on?
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If I recall, support for Trump among 18-30 year olds is under 20% in most polls. Even if you add up Trump + Gary Johnson support it's not really a daunting number, I think it still falls shy of Clinton.
 
R

Rayis

Member
It's so weird to me that the state that passed the SB1070 could turn blue against a candidate who has a strongly anti-immigrant platform, perhaps it was actually unpopular with the majority of its residents.
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Bruce Springsteen said:
and that's all that matters. Clinton is going to win, it doesn't matter if it's by 1% or 12%. The senate seats are far more important in needing to switch parties
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People are less bipartisan now. Forcing a Clinton win for Presidency will push the state blue quicker. Probably not this election, but every following election will be a bit more blue.
 
M

moffattron9000

Member
Korey said:
Aren't we just waiting for all the old people to die?

Are young people in red states red enough to keep the states red as the 40+ year olds start dying out? I'm not familiar with this demographic (young people in red states). Are they still pretty conservative?

I mean everything's trending towards the left. Young people are less religious, have more access to information, have more gay friends, etc. Doesn't this guarantee all these states moving left as time goes on?
Click to expand...

People have said that about youth for decades. For a great amount of them, they will move to the right as they get older.
 
K

Korey

Member
moffattron9000 said:
People have said that about youth for decades. For a great amount of them, they will move to the right as they get older.
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They didn't have the internet though.

I think people who've grown up with technology will stay way more informed than the current batch of religious, conservative old people from the flyover states.
 
M

moffattron9000

Member
nubbe said:
Trump is so toxic.
Wouldn't the Senate race be a better indication if states are swinging?
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Well looking at FiveThirtyEight, we're now at 73.8% Dem to 26.2% GOP. That however is not an ideal way to view things, as they are all separate races. For example, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Illinois are largely driven by their blue nature, and there being good Democratic options; New Hampshire swung blue after Kelly Ayotte said that Trump is a good role-model; Missouri swung due to this fantastic ad; Indiana got revived as Evan Bayh reentered the race; and Nevada seems to be driven in part to a late Hispanic swing, which has proven difficult to gauge.
 
M

Maledict

Member
aeolist said:
hmm by 10 points too

weird i didn't remember that
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For a number of reasons.

1) Iowa loves Obama. His entire primary campaign was based on Iowa, and he motivated people to an extent no-one thought possible. He has a real, honest connection to the state and it's people that pushes the numbers in a way that doesn't effect national trends.

2) Iowa borders Illinois, where he was senator. That means in terms of media market he got free publicity for a while beforehand, and he gained a small bump due to a 'home state' advantage.
 
A

AYF 001

Member
Korey said:
They didn't have the internet though.

I think people who've grown up with technology will stay way more informed than the current batch of religious, conservative old people from the flyover states.
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"The Internet" also includes 4chan, infowars, and stormfront. There's plenty of angry young white men latching onto Donald's messages, as evidenced by the whole GG affair. What proportion out of the voting population they represent and whether or not their views will change as they grow older are entirely separate questions. You can take a person to knowledge, but you can't make them think.
 
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