The Wii U was also on the list last year, I believe. Look how that turned out.
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Dice Summit: "nobody talking about the new WiiU projects they started, only canceled"
- Thread starter Pachterballs
- Start date
The Wii U was also on the list last year, I believe. Look how that turned out.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
And we have evidence uptake will be slow. I guess we'll know in a year.
Calamari41
41 > 38
My thesis isn't so much that Nintendo is set to kill it this holiday (though I do think they will have a successful season if they can get Mario Kart, 3D Mario and Retro's game out), but more that we are going to find out either that people are sick of Nintendo and love MS/Sony, or that people don't care who you are as long as you are at the right price point.
I don't think its a coincidence that the PS3 and 360 started to sell like hotcakes as soon as they hit the impulse-buy range.
Big enough improvement in what though? Gameplay? That is generally the same due to them finding a sweet spot to the general masses. Graphics? I think we can agree COD is just good enough in the graphics department for the masses to play. Online? I really don't see an improvement in this. XBL is top notch.
You have a point with Madden, but I think the comparison is weak when you consider the huge jump in online communities this gen compared to last gen. It's crazy how many concurrent players are online on many different games.
I do believe a sizable amount of COD players will go with next gen consoles, but they may be underwhelmed by the size of the community. IF, they allow multi-console-online play (i.e. 360 and Durango) then I think there would be more people jumping on board with next gen COD.
Pachterballs
Banned
where?
also people posting ITT like generation transitions and its associated teething problem is a new thing/detrimental. Product gets superced and people move on. People just haven't moved on to wiiU.
Graphics and online features. Also, just overall bigger and more impressive maps; possibly for more players. All of that would be attractive to many COD players.
I think it's pretty inevitable that there will be big improvements in those areas. In terms of online, the next Xbox should have major improvements to its online gaming alone-- features built into the OS.
Online gaming has definitely gained popularity this gen. But just like Madden, I think people will jump. It's going to eventually get to the point in which next gen COD will make improvements while the 360/PS3 versions remain largely the same each iteration before getting phased out on those consoles.
Now this is a good point, however I still believe that there will be enough players to be able to have matches online 24/7.
The first say, 2 years may be a bit low but after that I can see things becoming similar to how they were this gen in terms of number of players online.
You shut your whore mouth!
Well we can only go by past information and current trends seen in the market, we can't just throw it out because it doesn't fit your point of view. The last launch of both PS3 and Xbox was middling at best with low supply and very drawn out. It's the only reason why this generation went on two years longer than normal, because they wanted to recoup some of the costs.
And current trends and economic factors all point to anything launching north of 399 will get off to a even slower start. So take both of those factors and it seems highly... optimistic of you to preach how great the Nextbox and PS4 will do despite everything happening, not including their own potential debacles like always on DRM, no used games, Apple like pricing, very low inventory etc. So unless this upcoming generation is going to magically be different no, most people don't "move on" until year 2 or so of a new console.
You mean we'll know in 2+ years, right?
Because O/B will be cannibalizing each other's sales. I doubt they'll both do 400k+ if they launch at the same time. There will undoubtedly other "problems" as well, disappointing software, dodgy hardware, online shenanigans, supply issues. Stuff every console goes through. At which point people will say, wait until next year!
There's always the off chance that one company will move a huge number of systems starting from day one and never stop, but really, how likely is that?
As a Wii U owner and lifetime Nintendo fan (owned everything except Virtual Boy...~shudder~) I have three primary bones to pick with the Wii U that I think are and will continue to lead to struggles for Nintendo:
1. "A day late, and a dollar short." The Wii U should have come out 5 years ago. As soon as Nintendo saw that they were starting to falter a bit with the software sales of Wii games outside of their own offerings, they should have forged ahead and put the rumored "Wii HD" on the market, effectively drawing even with hardware specifications with the competition. A lot of people complain, and state "well, you don't need hardware to compete - clearly the Wii outsold the competition." That's all well and good, but developers want to work with cutting edge hardware. Developers also want to be able to reach as many consumers as possible with multiplatform offerings, particularly big-sellers like the Madden franchise among others. The best way to ensure that you don't get left out in the cold is to have the hardware that developers can use.
2. Marketing Failure. "Wii U" as a name is probably about the worst name that Nintendo could have decided on. I thought that the right idea would've been calling it the Wii 2...or even just the Nintendo U (building on the Wii "we" naming convention, now shifting more to single player experience focusing on U "you"). Fanboys will of course say that it's not that bad, it's easy to distinguish, but it really isn't. I said it in another less-detailed post that gamers these days are not die hards like the rest of us - they don't read GAF, gaming websites, etc. They only know about new games coming out when they see them on TV, hear someone talk about them, or see them at GameStop. To them, there is likely no tangible difference between Wii and Wii U. This is one thing that I think has hurt them at the onset.
3. Marketing Fail, Part 2 -- multiple models/SKUs. I think just about everyone is starting to finally realize that unlike cars, we don't really care for a ton of options on our consoles, at least in my opinion. Offer one model for one price point with all the great things that you need to have a great gaming experience. Again, casual gamers don't know the difference between 8GB vs 32GB of storage space. Just split the difference for us and go with one 16GB model, or just nix the 8GB model altogether -- give us everything we need. For those of us that need more than 32GB (die hards/hardcores) we'll take advantage of the additional hard drive features, etc.
These are things, in my opinion, that have hurt the console, with #1 being the biggest going forward. In my opinion, Sony would be extremely wise to not only unveil the PlayStation 4 on February 20th, but to set the price point as well. If it's close to the Wii U's price...it's going to be tough for Nintendo to forge ahead with the somewhat anemic release schedule for 2013.
I love the console, though. For those of us that simply buy Nintendo consoles for first party titles, it's just the usual waiting game, and with Wind Waker HD approaching this fall I think it will be so, so worth the wait!
1. "A day late, and a dollar short." The Wii U should have come out 5 years ago. As soon as Nintendo saw that they were starting to falter a bit with the software sales of Wii games outside of their own offerings, they should have forged ahead and put the rumored "Wii HD" on the market, effectively drawing even with hardware specifications with the competition. A lot of people complain, and state "well, you don't need hardware to compete - clearly the Wii outsold the competition." That's all well and good, but developers want to work with cutting edge hardware. Developers also want to be able to reach as many consumers as possible with multiplatform offerings, particularly big-sellers like the Madden franchise among others. The best way to ensure that you don't get left out in the cold is to have the hardware that developers can use.
2. Marketing Failure. "Wii U" as a name is probably about the worst name that Nintendo could have decided on. I thought that the right idea would've been calling it the Wii 2...or even just the Nintendo U (building on the Wii "we" naming convention, now shifting more to single player experience focusing on U "you"). Fanboys will of course say that it's not that bad, it's easy to distinguish, but it really isn't. I said it in another less-detailed post that gamers these days are not die hards like the rest of us - they don't read GAF, gaming websites, etc. They only know about new games coming out when they see them on TV, hear someone talk about them, or see them at GameStop. To them, there is likely no tangible difference between Wii and Wii U. This is one thing that I think has hurt them at the onset.
3. Marketing Fail, Part 2 -- multiple models/SKUs. I think just about everyone is starting to finally realize that unlike cars, we don't really care for a ton of options on our consoles, at least in my opinion. Offer one model for one price point with all the great things that you need to have a great gaming experience. Again, casual gamers don't know the difference between 8GB vs 32GB of storage space. Just split the difference for us and go with one 16GB model, or just nix the 8GB model altogether -- give us everything we need. For those of us that need more than 32GB (die hards/hardcores) we'll take advantage of the additional hard drive features, etc.
These are things, in my opinion, that have hurt the console, with #1 being the biggest going forward. In my opinion, Sony would be extremely wise to not only unveil the PlayStation 4 on February 20th, but to set the price point as well. If it's close to the Wii U's price...it's going to be tough for Nintendo to forge ahead with the somewhat anemic release schedule for 2013.
I love the console, though. For those of us that simply buy Nintendo consoles for first party titles, it's just the usual waiting game, and with Wind Waker HD approaching this fall I think it will be so, so worth the wait!
This holiday, the console market realistically could look like this:
X360: $99
PS3: $250
WiiU: $299/349
XBOX: $399/$499 (?)
PS4: $399/$499 (?)
360/PS3 will have a wonderful and massive library of titles. Wii U will be home to Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, Yoshi, and whatever else million+ seller IP Nintendo is willing to produce this year. Durango and Orbis will have a small selection of surely impressive looking titles and the usual big multiplat IPs.
You tell me what the mass market is going to buy? Hell if I know, but I wouldn't bet on $400+ consoles with that many options + iOS/Tablet/Smartphone/Ouya/AppleTV/etc on the market.
X360: $99
PS3: $250
WiiU: $299/349
XBOX: $399/$499 (?)
PS4: $399/$499 (?)
360/PS3 will have a wonderful and massive library of titles. Wii U will be home to Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, Yoshi, and whatever else million+ seller IP Nintendo is willing to produce this year. Durango and Orbis will have a small selection of surely impressive looking titles and the usual big multiplat IPs.
You tell me what the mass market is going to buy? Hell if I know, but I wouldn't bet on $400+ consoles with that many options + iOS/Tablet/Smartphone/Ouya/AppleTV/etc on the market.
Yea they will improve, but I don't think a majority care about the graphics. You're right about the maps and stuff, I didn't take that into factor, but I think the appeal of COD is close-quarter combat. That's why smaller maps are more apparent in the games. Battlefield on the other hand has many, many benefits going to next-gen. Online though I'm not entirely sure what they can add, do you have some ideas?
I don't know about this. With sports games they typically only have to change the roster and keep the same gameplay mechanics (i.e. Fifa on Vita, sports games on Wii). With COD there have been typically more changes than that.
I don't doubt that there won't be enough for matches 24/7. I just think that some of the game modes won't be populated 24/7. TDM, Domination, Headquarters, FFA, S&D, and etc will be populated, but I don't think Hardcore modes, CTF, Team Tactical, and etc will be.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Every console launch over $300 has had a pretty slow start, though some recovered better than others.
It is worth noting that at least in the US, the highest launch performers are Xbox and GameCube which launched within days of each other.CrunchyB said:
airmangataosenai
Member
What evidence is that? PS3 stabilized when it hit $400 and 360 did quite well when it launched at that price. Yet you're expecting some sort of cataclysmic drop-off of the market for some reason.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That's hard to say. If Wii U shipped at the rate X360 was 7 years ago, it would probably still be in shortage.
Don't worry, all signs point to Nintendo dropping Mario and Zelda very soon.
Bel_Air_Jeff
Banned
What if Microsoft cut off XBL on 360, enticing consumers to buy Durango....
Steve Youngblood
Member
I think there was a perception of the console doing quite well because it shipped in low quantities for some time. It's that reason that makes an apples to apples comparison of the Wii U versus 360 launch quite useless. If you're arguing that the Wii U must be doing well because it bested the 360 launch, you're making a bad case because inventory simply wasn't there for the 360 to compete in this particular race. However, it's also erroneous to flip that argument and go at it from the other direction suggesting that the 360 was a bonafide sellout that set the world on fire right out of the gate, and the Wii U's availability on store shelves compared to the 360 is in and of itself an indicator that the former launched well while the latter is tanking.
prag16
Banned
2005/2006 was the "land of milk and honey everybody's rich" economy.
Right now we're not quite in the 2008/2009 doldrums, but it's certainly an entirely different playing field.
PS4/720 will probably track behind Wii U for awhile. After all, Wii U is tracking AHEAD of PS360.
Does that indicate who's going to win ultimately? Not at all. But don't expect any miracles.
nope, situation is very different (of course, IMO).
Everybody that bought a 360/PS3 in the first couple of years has massive blue balls right now waiting for the next ones. Those that haven't spent eight zillion dollars on a gaming PC will want either Durango or Orbis.
I expect both to be supply constrained for ages after launch.
I think this is why some think rayman will bomb now
airmangataosenai
Member
I probably need to clarify that when I talk about the 360 "Launching" at that price I mean continued sales following launch until the point where the premium model was being sold for $300 or less. The system launched at $400 and then introduced a more expensive model a year and a half later for $50 extra and it did fine.
More succinctly: The 360 launched at a higher price 7+ years ago and still never sold as poorly in NA as the Wii U is looking to do this month.
More succinctly: The 360 launched at a higher price 7+ years ago and still never sold as poorly in NA as the Wii U is looking to do this month.
This is a very interesting issue. How likely do you think people will buy a new platform for a new IP over something people are familiar with? I can promise you most people who buy Microsoft's and Sony's new platform early on will be mostly doing it for familiar IP. Those are the safe bets to make, and this is something all of these companies do.
I think a big issue for Wii U, and this is something that was hurting 3DS sales for a while, was that the previous generation has more enticing platforms for value. For a number of months people were buying more of the DS instead of the 3DS, because that offered better value to consumers. The exact same thing happened with PS3. The issue I find, and it seems to have been one that has effected all current eighth generation platforms thus far, could be one of value. They're coming off of the longest video game generation in history, and perhaps the consumer who hasn't bought a platform at all or hasn't done so in a while may just bunker down with one of these other machines. You can get more value out of Wii, PS3, 360, DS, and PSP more than you can get from 3DS, Vita, and Wii U. It's going to be an uphill climb for those platforms, and potentially Durango and Orbis, because they're going to be offering scraps compared to the tables of content found on their predecessors out of the gate. I think, especially in this economy, there are consumers who are more attuned to that situation.
Steve Youngblood
Member
We'll see what happens. It's kind of tough to figure out where people are coming from on this one. It's Rayman. Whether it stayed exclusive or not, it probably wasn't going to put up big numbers. So when we start seeing the results in October, it's going to be tough to assess whether or not it's actually tanking, or it's tanking in the sense that it looks bad to people who had no idea what kind of numbers a Rayman title is expect to post.
True I just hope it was the right move .
I agree. People are coming in thinking: "Well Nintendo turned the 3DS around! They'll do it again with the Wii U!" The situation is different when you are comparing handhelds to consoles . I just think it's ridiculous to automatically assume Orbis/Durango aren't going to sell at $400 or less just because the Wii U isn't selling as well. These machines are going to offer a whole lot more out of the box then Wii U did which will influence what people buy. Now, do I think Orbis/Durango are going to see 5 millions units this Christmas? Of course not. You have supply constraints among other things to worry about. However, do I think we'll see a higher adoption rate than we did for Wii U? Certainly.
anon_mastermind
Member
You're flat our ignoring the MILLIONS of new Xbox customers would purchased the system since the price drop and release of Kinnect. That is a huge piece of Microsoft's install base, and I doubt you'll see a majority of that segment run out and buy a $400 system.
The huge success of 360 was not built on the wallets of the early adopters. Not even close.
That's true. Wii sales this past holiday were, frankly, unbelievable. A $69 Wii would probably sell quite well (and profitably) for Nintendo. Maybe the wretched Wii Mini will come down from the North?
anon_mastermind
Member
I would think Nintendo would try to convince people why they should get a Wii U and not buy a Wii this Christmas. Yeah, a lower priced Wii would sell but that's less people jumping on Wii and spurring third parties to put games on Wii U.
Correct. He simply asked what it meant for a console to "fail early." Dreamcast is an example of a console failing early, just for the reasons that you specified instead of industry apathy.
faceless007
Member
I think the Wii is still $129 in the U.S. So there's still some room to drop.
People need to relax. The WiiU won't sell like the Wii but it will sell a decent amount when the games come out.
Nintendo made a huge mistake with releasing it without a steady stream of games. This is the same mistake they made with the 3DS. The 3DS was bombing at first too. Now that it has some great games coming out it is selling.
I think from March on the WiiU should be getting a decent amount of good games released every month. March kicks it off with Lego City and Monster Hunters.
Nintendo made a huge mistake with releasing it without a steady stream of games. This is the same mistake they made with the 3DS. The 3DS was bombing at first too. Now that it has some great games coming out it is selling.
I think from March on the WiiU should be getting a decent amount of good games released every month. March kicks it off with Lego City and Monster Hunters.
Steve Youngblood
Member
The 3DS is doing all right, but is only really soaring in Japan. It's also worth noting that they took drastic steps with the 3DS to get it where it is outside of merely releasing games. There was a major price cut in there coupled with working feverishly to make sure some big games made it out for the holidays. Also, it's primary competition in terms of dedicated handheld game devices was the Vita, which hasn't put up much of a fight.
I'm not saying that Nintendo is incapable of going all out and getting things back on track, but I don't really buy into the argument that one only needs look at the 3DS to know where the Wii U is headed.
Depends on our definition of fire, but I generally agree. Our predictions are normally way off. Even more than Pachter's.
I'm not saying that the WiiU will sell as well as the 3DS but it will sell a respectable amount. I am just saying that they made the same boneheaded mistake that they made with the 3DS and everyone was all doom and gloom about it too.
The WiiU will do fine when the games start coming out.
I expect it to perform like Gamecube did.
mattiewheels
And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
I think that the big problem with discussing WiiU on a hardcore enthusiast message board is that a lot of people here think all Nintendo needs is Metroid/FZero/Mario/Third-party-favor to do really well. That would only win over a small portion of the hardcore audience; and meanwhile they've essentially turned their back on the casual crowd with the WiiU, the same crowd that turned the Wii into a smash hit that would have otherwise had the same impact as GameCube sales-wise, judging from the software attach rate.
So instead of continuing to appeal to non-gamers with Wii Sports type amusements and continuing their success in a space that the other consoles can't compete, they choose to try to appeal more to the core market in a space that they themselves find it very hard to compete. They should have kept chasing the casual market, because I know they would have had a much bigger impact with this thing if they did.
So instead of continuing to appeal to non-gamers with Wii Sports type amusements and continuing their success in a space that the other consoles can't compete, they choose to try to appeal more to the core market in a space that they themselves find it very hard to compete. They should have kept chasing the casual market, because I know they would have had a much bigger impact with this thing if they did.
Did you expect the "doomed" phrase to not be bandied about?
Steve Youngblood
Member
My only problem is I think that we generally have no common understanding of what these adjectives imply. "Fine" seems to cover a lot of ground as far as I can tell.
Gamecube would be disasterous. I think Nintendo is better positioned in 2013 to generate more interest than they got on Gamecube. If that's where they end up, heads need to roll.
Well, clearly, you owe that company your resources!
;-)
Indeed. No amount of Mario or Zelda is going to save them.
They should have been cultivating that casual crowd with the Wii these past 2 years, and preparing them for Wii 2. Instead, they did nothing and screwed up the launch with a stupid name to boot. If anything, they should have kept their specs within reason of where Orbis/Durango were going to be, and then gone for both markets. As it stands, they pretty much screwed themselves out of both.
The end of 2013 will be very interesting.
I agree with this
mattiewheels
And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
It just feels like they know that they lost an audience to smart phones, and just gave up on chasing them instead of pressing further. The iPad connotations of the new gamepad made me think that they were trying for that audience, but the actual product came out a bit differently then I'd imagined.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
So NOT fine, then!
No way
The gamepad idea came before the ipad came out
2 similar ideas - but different execution
One is primarily for gaming while the other is a tablet for multi media use
mattiewheels
And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
Sure, I don't doubt that but its just first impressions I'm talking about here.