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[Fine Ham Abounds]

The Witcher 3 is overrated trash though. Notice how nobody talks about it anymore now that the hype is gone? Just like what happened with Dragon Age: Inquisition and Bioshock Infinite kii. XV already has a lot more hype than W3 ever had, and we're still half a year away.

XV will undoubtedly double W3's numbers, mark my words.

There's a lotta people talking about the next W3 expansion, actually. And if I'm supposed to judge that FFXV will have better combat than TW3 off the demo just released, it didn't work.

BI and DA maybe I can agree with, although there's a BI thread every 3 months here still.

 

[GhostTrick]

I see it easily doing 5 million in launch month.
2 million in Japan/Asia
1.5 million in North America
1.5 million in EU/ROTW

Now the March to 10 million depends on wom and PC port-rereleases.

The march to 10 millions will depend on the game quality and word of mouth. As for PC release, it's already too late.

 

[Sumio Mondo]

Yeah, not happening.

 

[LeleSocho]

Crazy.
This game has nowhere near the traction in the west than some title that sold "only" 5-6 million.
If it's a complete success everywhere (unlikely) it will arrive at 7 imho.

 

[gamechanger87]

Bethesda's games gained traction over seven iterations overwhelmingly on the strength of their incredible legs (even look at Skyrim, a 7 million launch shipment to a 20+ million LTD) to the point that so many people were sold on their brand of game design that Fallout 4 could achieve the debut it did.

That was not a success driven by commercials, but the continued strength of the products themselves.

Correct. Also, the Bethesda ARPG structure and stylization has become the benchmark for the genre.

I think people are really underestimating how much the PC/Console gaming market has moved towards the west. The traditional Japanese console market is ded.

 

[Arkeband]

Bethesda's games gained traction over seven iterations overwhelmingly on the strength of their incredible legs (even look at Skyrim, a 7 million launch shipment to a 20+ million LTD) to the point that so many people were sold on their brand of game design that Fallout 4 could achieve the debut it did.

That was not a success driven by commercials, but the continued strength of the products themselves.

Skyrim had a pretty ambitious advertisement campaign. Fus-roh-dah playing over and over again in Best Buys, 11/11/11, TV commercials, enormous Times Square murals, etc.

 

[Sydle]

We're talking about 10 million in sales. How many of the other great FF games sold 10 million?

Lifetime? Didn't VII do that?

I think XII came in over 5 million a decade ago. The gaming market is bigger and XV is not tied to just one console like XII was (hopefully they come to their senses on a PC version too).

The style and setting already guarantees it won't be one of the best FF games yet.

Maybe I'm just high off the event last night, but I'm really excited for it.

FFIX will probably always be my favorite, with XII and VII right up there, but this new world looks really good to me. I want to explore it.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Will FFXV even sell 1 million copies in Japan? I don't remember how many copies FFXIII sold and that was back when consoles had some relevancy over there.

 

[ghostjoke]

They're really banking on the past 10 years being entirely a hype train and not a "oh, come on, can we just get it over and done with and move on". Looking over the past sales and considering this will be paying for the sins of its predecessor in the mainline SP series... well, gotta be optimistic when selling.

 

[Z3M0G]

Yeah, they mentioned that as an approximate goal about three years back in a financial report. I see that wasn't just corporate puffery.

On the one hand, this is the sort of product that looks like it should be a 10 million copy game based on production values and scope.

On the other hand, I get the feeling it's also going to have enough rough edges and cultural dissonances to end up at 4-6 million instead.

It looks like a game stuck between two worlds (or more specifically, two geographic regions), and also like a first attempt at making an open world action RPG in an effort to be in tune with the market.

I'm expecting a Metacritic average in the 77-83 range, with a lot of people making positive statements about the direction of the series, but having a laundry list of complaints and flaws.

I'm curious to see how Square Enix ends up changing their game development going forward if this ends up hitting around half its target.

Great analysis! Your last point is interesting. Will this Final Fantasy be supplemented by DLC and micro-transactions? If not, the next mainline Final Fantasy surely will...

 

[Aters]

We're talking about 10 million in sales. How many of the other great FF games sold 10 million?

FFXIII and FFXIII-2 combined.

 

[vainglorious]

and FFVX-3.

They have put a decade of various levels of pre-production into this thing, you'd be crazy to think they wouldn't try to get as much as they can out of this.

The mobile games as mini-games makes perfect sense too from a financial stand point. Expect Justice Monsters V on iOS and Android to provide in game perks through some type of optional freemium payment system.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

I bet 7 remake demo/first episode is gonna be inside the disc

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Correct. Also, the Bethesda ARPG structure and stylization has become the benchmark for the genre.

I think people are really underestimating how much the PC/Console gaming market has moved towards the west. The traditional Japanese console market is ded.

Maybe tapping the Western talent and making an expensive CG movie was the best idea they could come up with for building western interest in the title, considering in the 10 years it took them to make this game their entire primary audience stopped buying consoles

 

[Kusagari]

The Witcher 3 is overrated trash though. Notice how nobody talks about it anymore now that the hype is gone? Just like what happened with Dragon Age: Inquisition and Bioshock Infinite kii. XV already has a lot more hype than W3 ever had, and we're still half a year away.

XV will undoubtedly double W3's numbers, mark my words.

Lmao. XV has more hype if you live in a bubble where Japanese games are still king. A bubble like GAF.

 

[sublimit]

I really hope the game sells well but i don't think it will sell more than 6-7 million units (lifetime.)
The market unfortunatelly has changed and they also have to win the fans they lost from all the XIII shitfest.

 

[Curufinwe]

I guess that also explains the song they chose. They think pandering of this sort will get them more sales. Like others have said, good luck with that.

Pandering to who?

 

[GunBR]

Will FFXV even sell 1 million copies in Japan? I don't remember how many copies FFXIII sold and that was back when consoles had some relevancy over there.

1.7 mi in the first month

But the market got way worse now

 

[True Fire]

If XV turns out to be one of the best FF games yet I'd expect it to do better than the garbage that was XIII.

Agreed, XV is going to sell more than XIII for a number of reasons.

XIII was aimed towards the weeb crowd with its bright colors/outrageous outfits/nonsensical anime storyline, while XV has a lot more casual appeal. It's very cool, collected, and neutral. They use a lot of Latin terms that people of all languages understand. The theme of friends going on a road trip is simple enough to reel people in. I still have no idea what XIII was about, really, and I've played it three times. XV is also open world and action-based, while XIII was a linear turn based game. XV is probably going to launch on Steam around the time of its PS4/XBox One launch, so it will sell millions on that alone. XIII was really hurt by its delayed launch and toxic word of mouth by the time it finally made it to PC.

Bringing Breaking Bad and Game of Thrones actors on board was a brilliant idea. The trailer last night was also aimed towards casual fans (the first trailer to do so, imo). It also blew up on Twitter and Facebook. Trending sections were dominated by XV last night, so imagine the visibility the game has gotten due to that. Last night's presentation was REALLY was this game needed.

 

[JayWood2010]

Talk about a financial risk. Better release this on everything if you want to have a chance at that. PS4/XBO/PC/NX.

 

[Zekra Dezivad]

Well, it's a project started ten years ago, with a whole new engine developed ad-hoc for this game.
New know it will be a financial nightmare. No way they will make up the costs.

I'll do my part, but they need to absord the losses with a variety of high quality console games.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

It will sell between 2-3 mil tops, no way in hell will it do 10 no matter how good the game is.

This will be fun....

 

[silva1991]

It's not a turn based game anymore. God knows how many newcomers will buy it because of that and it raises the chances of it reaching those sales expectations.

I've seen countless people in forums or real life that never cared about Final Fantasy and are hyped for this game.

 

[Kysen]

No chance, would have been a stretch in the PS2 gen. But current gen? No JRPG has even got close.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Lmao. XV has more hype if you live in a bubble where Japanese games are still king. A bubble like GAF.

And judging by the demo thread, that bubble's already burst for about 3/4 of GAF

 

[Dark Cloud]

1.7 mi in the first month

But the market got way worse now

Yep it's way worse. Japan won't care much. Sounds like Square is banking on 9 million coming from the west.

 

[Movalpolos]

PC version confirmed

Yeah. They are really going to need that on release now too. Or close to it.

 

[KillerMan91]

1.7 mi in the first month

But the market got way worse now

While overall the market is worse now in Japan it's not like PS3 was doing gangbuster numbers back then either. PS4 is actually slightly outpacing PS3 at the moment in Japan. Bigger question is that in what shape the brand of FF is in Japan. XIII-2 and lightning returns had pretty shitty sales but that could be because of bad reputation of XIII.

 

[Gator86]

The Witcher 3 is overrated trash though. Notice how nobody talks about it anymore now that the hype is gone? Just like what happened with Dragon Age: Inquisition and Bioshock Infinite kii. XV already has a lot more hype than W3 ever had, and we're still half a year away.

XV will undoubtedly double W3's numbers, mark my words.

This post is amazing. I hope people remember to go back and laugh at it after FFXV launches.

 

[Movalpolos]

Well, at least we're getting another Nier game before SE goes under.

 

[Hentailover]

I wonder how it feels to know that a game of this caliber, ended up basically being charity, in a sense that there's no way they trully expect it to make to that mark...

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

This post is amazing. I hope people remember to go back and laugh at it after FFXV launches.

Likewise there are posts in here i'll be saving as well

 

[Boke1879]

It's definitely possible. It's important to note that they're giving lifetime sales expectations, which is factoring in 25-50% off sales that will happen over the months/years after the game's been released. I can totally see them coming close to that number. They're giving it such a huge push what with getting Aaron Paul, Lena Heady, and Sean Bean to star in the CGI movie, and the apparent resurgence in "mainstream" popularity of anime thanks to Netflix/Crunchyroll/Hulu (I'm just making a guess due to the prominent placement anime gets on those sites, and the popularity of anime conventions, not completely sure if a "resurgence" is true). This game is anime as fuck, but the FF franchise also crosses over into the mainstream the way few other anime-as-fuck franchises are able to (I think pretty much just DBZ and Sailor Moon do it to the same degree).

I can totally see the potential for the game to sell 10-12 million over a few years. With the huge crossmedia marketing push, the thirst for a good post-FF12 console FF game, it being pretty much the first mainline giant JRPG franchise on next gen aside from Zestiria (which is much more niche than FF), I think it has a decent chance of hitting their goal. Especially if its reviews settle somewhere between Xenoblade and Xenoblade Chronicles X.



Agree that PC has a ceiling of about 1-1.2 million based on sales of FF13/other JRPGs on Steam. Xbone I think will sell closer to 1.5 million, so they'll need to get close to 8 million on PS4. I'm expecting lots of bundling, probably some sort of patch/promotion bundle with the PS4K (maybe retrofit the advanced graphics options from the PC version to the PS4K version?), etc. Again, over a few years, I can totally see it being possible, but the game will need to have a really great debut and really long legs.

Agree with your assessment. Over the lifespan of the game it's possible. It's eventually coming to PC and with steam and retailer sales it'll definitely help.

Also wouldn't be shocked if you see a lot of Holiday bundles this year with the game included.

 

[T.O.P]

The Witcher 3 is overrated trash though.

 

[EVA UNIT 01]

Its not happening.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

Well, at least we're getting another Nier game before SE goes under.

Lol o god... They're not going anywhere

 

[hal9001]

 

[Godcannon]

Neogaf thinks it won't happen so it has a chance. Am I right guys?! Hah....guys? Wait where is everybody going?

 

[Fdkn]

"the market has changed"

yeah, they know that. That's the reason XV is a huge open world game with action gameplay instead of their usual linear turn based game.

I see many crystal balls in this thread tbh =/

 

[Boke1879]

And judging by the demo thread, that bubble's already burst for about 3/4 of GAF

And that's why using GAF as any sort of metric is stupid. The demo imo wasn't a problem. Combat will take some getting used to but other than that I have no issues with what it was. Unfortunately certain topics have become hyperbole central.

 

[VariantX]

Will FFXV even sell 1 million copies in Japan? I don't remember how many copies FFXIII sold and that was back when consoles had some relevancy over there.

If Splatoon can sell 1+ million in Japan alone, FFXV can do it for sure.

 

[AuthenticM]

They seriously need to stop developing engines. It's going to kill them.

 

[Movalpolos]

Lol o god... They're not going anywhere

I know, I know. I'm just being a schmuck.

 

[MultiJhonny]

And that's why using GAF as any sort of metric is stupid. The demo imo wasn't a problem. Combat will take some getting used to but other than that I have no issues with what it was. Unfortunately certain topics have become hyperbole central.

Yep. Literally everywhere else other than Gaf the response has been sooo much better lol

Other people are taking it for what it is instead of trying to hype up the demo itself

 

[narutomaki04]

if it gets nothing but 10/10 reviews I can see it doing maybe 8 mil at the most in a year

 

[Big Green Anus]

After that dreadful demo, I can see this doing 3-5 million on consoles and only making 10 million after big Steam sales like Tomb Raider.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

And that's why using GAF as any sort of metric is stupid. The demo imo wasn't a problem. Combat will take some getting used to but other than that I have no issues with what it was. Unfortunately certain topics have become hyperbole central.

Was just reading a couple of sites opinions...Waaaay different than that thread

Ps2 graphics..My god

 

[Interfectum]

10 million? lol gg SE

 

[Dark Cloud]

If Splatoon can sell 1+ million in Japan alone, FFXV can do it for sure.

I don't get the comparison.

 

[Arkeband]

They seriously need to stop developing engines. It's going to kill them.

They need to stop developing engines that aren't forward-leaning. The Fox engine seemed like it had incredible scalability, Luminous just looks like a headache.