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[Perfo]

What is the point to invest such an obscene amount of money to just break even?

That's what I'm saying, I'm sure the "break-even" point is way less than 10 millions. 10 mil is the mark to be "popular" in the current gen so is only normal for this company to claim they want to sell as much. But it's all PR-talk at this point imho. They'll be fine with 6-7 ml copies sold and everything beyond that will make them super positive.

 

[MilkBeard]

It's probably best if they would keep information like this secret, at least until long after the game releases.

It replaces hype with cynicism.

 

[Rektash]

Maybe we are all stupid and squenix knows more than us? Maybe it'll get ported to mobile?

Spoiler

Because that's the only way this is gonna sell 10 million units.

 

[Lister]

"Gotta sell 10 million copies!"

"Let's spend hundreds of millions more in making some crappy CGI movie no one will care about, like the others!"

"Great idea! Anyone else?"

"Let's exlclude one of the largest gaming platforms on the planet right now!!"

"BRILLIANT!"

 

[Mortemis]

Final Fantasy XV will be ported to refrigerators once they're powerful enough to run it. I fully expect Square Enix to milk XV in ways that would even make ATLUS uncomfortable.

FFXV Dancing All Night incoming

 

[JuanLatino]

Why are people listing PS4K separately. Having not gone through the PS4K thread I assumed newer PS4 games would work on PS4 and PS4K. Just like playing a game on a high end pc and a lower spec'ed pc, you don't need to buy the game twice. It's just game settings.

didn't the rumours from Osiris say, that gamse, that are already released won't look better on PS4K, unless the developers make an Upgrade/Patch??

I could imagine Square Enix releasing an ultimate Edition with all DLC, that also runs better on the Ps4k

 

[TheTux]

Yeah, they mentioned that as an approximate goal about three years back in a financial report. I see that wasn't just corporate puffery.

On the one hand, this is the sort of product that looks like it should be a 10 million copy game based on production values and scope.

On the other hand, I get the feeling it's also going to have enough rough edges and cultural dissonances to end up at 4-6 million instead.

It looks like a game stuck between two worlds (or more specifically, two geographic regions), and also like a first attempt at making an open world action RPG in an effort to be in tune with the market.

I'm expecting a Metacritic average in the 77-83 range, with a lot of people making positive statements about the direction of the series, but having a laundry list of complaints and flaws.

I'm curious to see how Square Enix ends up changing their game development going forward if this ends up hitting around half its target.

I cannot agree more. I wanted to write a post like this but you already listed all my points. Great post.

 

[Platinumstorm]

Maybe a decade ago but no so much anymore.

And people really need to stop using forums and internet reactions to speculate how much a title would sold because if that was a good indicator then almost every single Ubisoft game would be bombing.

Neogaf has a large section of people who love to speculate on things that don't matter to them. This isn't good or bad, it just is, I don't think you're going to stop that.

Not posting here to tell you that, but I was thinking about Ubisoft and Square this morning, and how Ubisoft must be an excellently run business to often put out average to garbage titles, literally burning communities every few years [Might and Magic] but still remain profitable, where I see Square as more of a company that is all in with every development cycle trying to make the best game ever conceived and missing realistic expectations.

I'm not too worried about Square because they have plenty of money from FFXIV's extreme success from 100% failure in the MMO world, but they're really a company that seems to be about passion development and not business decisions until they hit that moment.

I know nothing about market research, nor do I care, but if I had to pick a game to sell at least 10 million units I don't see why FFXV couldn't be that one.

 

[Honey Bunny]

What is the point to invest such an obscene amount of money to just break even?

Building the brand long term. FF has lost a lot of cachet since Xii.

 

[GhostWriter24]

Depends on the critical reception. I'm in for 1, though.

 

[MilkBeard]

But did you see the size of that boat?

 

[Squire]

Final Fantasy XV will be ported to refrigerators once they're powerful enough to run it. I fully expect Square Enix to milk XV in ways that would even make ATLUS uncomfortable.

They're milking it now and if it doesn't pay off I expect it's going to come to a hard stop.

Greg Miller was comfortable enough to make a joke at FFXIII's expense last night. I think they know internally now that brute-forcing popularity isn't something they're capable of.

 

[Huge Succeeded]

No, that is not going to happen when the aesthetic alone is incredible out of touch and divisive among long time fans.

Okay how is this game's aesthetic 'out of touch'?
Especially compared to any of the other notable aesthetics this series has toyed around with? Like FFIX, like FFVIII, like the Final Fantasy: Flash over Substance Trilogy from last gen?
i'm trying to wrap my head around this. I can't make it make sense.

This is the most 'in touch' and mainstream-penetrable a Final Fantasy game's aesthetic has been since Final Fantasy 7. Easily. And without question.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

He did say lifetime, so factoring in all potential releases.....

1. PS4 + XB1
2. PC
3. NX
4. PS4K/XB1.5
5. PS5/XB2 Remaster

I think they are going to expose this game on as many platforms as possible.

 

[Mcdohl]

What about revenue from other sources?

DLC/merch/4K edition/PC version/Audi (lol)/in app purchases of the pinball mobile game/etc?

Taking that into account, do they still need 10 million copies sold? D:

 

[Shaanyboi]

Lol

Way to plan, Square. It's almost like spending 10+ years making a spectacle-heavy RPG is bad business.

 

[dickroach]

it'll do that in 3 months.

3 months after the PC, NX, PS4K, and XB1.5 versions come out

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

Could sell that across PC, PS4 and Xbox one if it gets witcher level reviews.

 

[paragonpro]

So, thats not going to happen. But hopefully they learn to scale production the hell down. Im flad we are getting this massive new ff game, but hopefully it not doing what they want doesnt kill plans for 7 remake or other ff games

 

[CHC]

Oh I'm not faulting them at all! I hope it works out for them. There's definitely a feeling of it being too western focused out there though. But that's just what you have to concede to hit anywhere near the numbers they want.

Yeah definitely. I'm just sort of implying the connection between XV and the older games like VI, VII, IX, etc. They were very universal stories, anyone could relate to them. I don't really think this is the case for later games.... I won't say that FFXIII is bad (I sort of enjoyed it) but it's the kind of game that needs a lot of disclaimers, ie; "it's a great game if you just ignore [such-and-such aspect]."

I feel like maybe I'm rambling, and I think we agree, but I'm just trying to justify the Western focus because I also sort of think it's needed, even without the astronomical sales goals.

 

[JuanLatino]

wrong thread

 

[Fdkn]

10 million lifetime is not that crazy in this age, counting with the late pc port and future pricedrops.

CDP-Red announced that TW3 is at almost 10million this month btw, so that kotaku quote is very wrong.

And they're not betting the company on this game at all. Their financials are fine and they can afford the failure even if they obviously will try to make it succeed.

 

[kswiston]

That's what I'm saying, I'm sure the "break-even" point is way less than 10 millions. 10 mil is the mark to be "popular" in the current gen so is only normal for this company to claim they want to sell as much. But it's all PR-talk at this point imho. They'll be fine with 6-7 ml copies sold and everything beyond that will make them super positive.

The 10 Million figure probably also includes the costs of the abandoned FF13 Vs version of the game.

A lot of these costs are sunk costs though. This game has been in development off and on for 10 years. Square Enix probably won't hit their 10M LTD figure, but 7-8M is not completely unreasonable (especially if we get that PC release). If the game is received positively, they can also push out a recycled asset sequel to another 4-5M sales. Square-Enix isn't going to lose their shirt over FFXV.

 

[MilkBeard]

What is the point to invest such an obscene amount of money to just break even?

They're doing a lot to try and rebuild the image. And perhaps even if they don't hit their goal, at least it will erase the cynicism surrounding the series after the XIII trilogy.

 

[No_Style]

I'm going to ignore the fact that you're charging $119.99 CAD for the Deluxe Edition and will be doing my part with a discounted regular edition, Square Enix.

--

So... if doesn't meet sales expectations, will there be a change in leadership? Will they bring in Western executive from Square Enix Europe or something along those lines?

 

[Chola]

How much did MGSV do?

It's definitely not hitting that.

6 million+ GZ, so probably around 9-10 million

 

[jony_m]

it did take ten+ years, even if on and off.. of course it was gonna be a huge money pit

 

[vinnygambini]

It's probably best if they would keep information like this secret, at least until long after the game releases.

It would have appeared in their financial forecast regardless.

 

[enigmatic_alex44]

Easy 10 million sold:

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
- PC release --- 1 million
- later on, a port to NX. *Nintendo fans are starved for a real Final Fantasy --- 1 to 3 million

Do you see how my educated guess totals up to the # S-E needs? The brand awareness for Final Fantasy has grown since VII released, so it's not crazy to think XV can beat it.

 

[NotMyPsn]

Holy wow!
well...it has been in development for 10 years...
But still, with all the tie in stuff surrounding this game, I bet it will be just fine, financially.

 

[xorx]

wat

 

[MilkBeard]

I'm going to ignore the fact that you're charging $119.99 CAD for the Deluxe Edition and will be doing my part with a discounted regular edition, Square Enix.

--

So... if doesn't meet sales expectations, will there be a change in leadership? Will they bring in Western executive from Square Enix Europe or something along those lines?

They will...



wait for it...



Bring back Sakaguchi

 

[Sub_Level]

FF brand is rolling in that Record Keeper and XIV money.

And you can tell they are staggering ports of old games to modern consoles. They don't wanna blow their revenue load all in one fiscal year.

 

[True Fire]

They're milking it now and if it doesn't pay off I expect it's going to come to a hard stop.

Greg Miller was comfortable enough to make a joke at FFXIII's expense last night. I think they know internally now that brute-forcing popularity isn't something they're capable of.

They made a movie and an anime before the game even came out. They're definitely still trying to brute-force popularity, but in this case it might actually work because the game looks like it's going to be good fundamentally, unlike XIII.

On the otherhand, a Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice scenario might happen where, after all of the hype, the game gets panned critically and although the game makes a lot of money based on early hype, the hype dies instantly.

 

[addik]

Not sure if they're going to hit the 10M+ mark, but damn did Uncovered generate a lot of hype for this game. Even my non-gaming friends are talking about it.

Well, they are more excited about the movie because of the VO and because of the visuals. I can imagine a few who are only interested in the movie, but would later purchase the game down the line.

 

[The End]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that the Collector's Edition will be in no way actually limited, and a good chunk of the dedicated fanbase will opt for the $90 version of this game.

My guess is that they won't hit 10 mil until a PC version and some sales happen, but the ARPU will be pretty high even before taking account cosmetic DLC, tie-in properties, etc.

 

[Chase17]

I wonder what the sales projections for KH3 will be like.

 

[Memento]

Now that I am thinking... by September 30, PS4 could be at 50 million worldwide already. Sounds reasonable to think it will hit 10 million. But again, I think it all depends on the reception. Hope it is good. I am there day 1 no matter what!

 

[Mass_Pincup]

That's too much, I don't see it passing 8 million units. But on the other end there's not much to look forward except the yearly franchise.

 

[kromeo]

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
.

However many they sell I'm pretty sure the ratio will be much higher for ps4 than that

 

[Ydelnae]

Game does 10M -> "Okay, the game didn't just perform good, it was also proof that it's viable to invest in big budget games like this" -> More ambitious games from S-E like FFXV
Game does ~8.5M -> "Well, the game sold very well and it gave us benefits, but we need more revenue to make these long development cycles and investments worthy -> Next FF is still an AAA release, but with another focus
Game does ~7.5M -> "We need to think about our strategy while developing AAA games" -> Mainline FF takes another type of focus, less budget involved

It's not "game does 8M, square declares bankrupcty, ubisoft buys final fantasy" like some people in here are making it out to be. I know my explanation is aproximated, but success =/= regain budget invested.

 

[Thorn]

Easy 10 million sold:

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
- PC release --- 1 million
- later on, a port to NX. *Nintendo fans are starved for a real Final Fantasy --- 1 to 3 million

Do you see how my educated guess totals up to the # S-E needs? The brand awareness for Final Fantasy has grown since VII released, so it's not crazy to think XV can beat it.

You actually believe the Xbone version will sell that much

 

[Nirolak]

Easy 10 million sold:

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
- PC release --- 1 million
- later on, a port to NX. *Nintendo fans are starved for a real Final Fantasy --- 1 to 3 million

Do you see how my educated guess totals up to the # S-E needs? The brand awareness for Final Fantasy has grown since VII released, so it's not crazy to think XV can beat it.

Where do you foresee this game selling those numbers on those platforms?

Like, give me a regional breakdown here.

 

[Squire]

Yeah definitely. I'm just sort of implying the connection between XV and the older games like VI, VII, IX, etc. They were very universal stories, anyone could relate to them. I don't really think this is the case for later games.... I won't say that FFXIII is bad (I sort of enjoyed it) but it's the kind of game that needs a lot of disclaimers, ie; "it's a great game if you just ignore [such-and-such aspect]."

I feel like maybe I'm rambling, and I think we agree, but I'm just trying to justify the Western focus because I also sort of think it's needed, even without the astronomical sales goals.

We do agree, yeah. Not everyone is happy, but universal appeal is something they should strive for, I think. And I think the game still feels very Japanese even still, fwiw. I like a lot of the choices they've made aesthetically, myself.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

XB1 version will struggle to sell 1 million copies.

 

[gamechanger87]

Easy 10 million sold:

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
- PC release --- 1 million
- later on, a port to NX. *Nintendo fans are starved for a real Final Fantasy --- 1 to 3 million

Do you see how my educated guess totals up to the # S-E needs? The brand awareness for Final Fantasy has grown since VII released, so it's not crazy to think XV can beat it.

Brand awareness has grown? The sales decline of the series would say otherwise. When 7 came out, Final Fantasy was a cross-over hit and was the series that everyone talked about. In the 20 years since, the game/series has gotten more and more niche.

Hell its largest source of fans are in Japan and they aren't even buying consoles there anymore.

 

[napata]

The Witcher 3 is overrated trash though. Notice how nobody talks about it anymore now that the hype is gone? Just like what happened with Dragon Age: Inquisition and Bioshock Infinite kii. XV already has a lot more hype than W3 ever had, and we're still half a year away.

XV will undoubtedly double W3's numbers, mark my words.

Can't say I've noticed this. Still see lots and lots of people talk about the W3.

You're right about XV being more hyped, but it's riding on the FF name. The W3 had almost no console presence before its release.

The W3 surprised loads of people with how good it was. Based on the demo's so far I think the opposite is going to happen for XV.
I see it following in the footsteps of XIII as a massive disappointment. I'd like to be wrong though.

 

[Arkeband]

Neogaf has a large section of people who love to speculate on things that don't matter to them. This isn't good or bad, it just is, I don't think you're going to stop that.

Not posting here to tell you that, but I was thinking about Ubisoft and Square this morning, and how Ubisoft must be an excellently run business to often put out average to garbage titles, literally burning communities every few years [Might and Magic] but still remain profitable, where I see Square as more of a company that is all in with every development cycle trying to make the best game ever conceived and missing realistic expectations.

I'm not too worried about Square because they have plenty of money from FFXIV's extreme success from 100% failure in the MMO world, but they're really a company that seems to be about passion development and not business decisions until they hit that moment.

I know nothing about market research, nor do I care, but if I had to pick a game to sell at least 10 million units I don't see why FFXV couldn't be that one.

FFXIV being an "extreme success" is hyperbolic, their active sub numbers barely moved with Heavensward based on parsing their their public-facing lodestone.

- Xbone version --- 3 million

I'd be surprised if XB1 breaks half a million, the install base isn't huge and RPG support on Xbox has been basically nonexistent.

 

[jony_m]

Concerns over piracy (and diminished sales) may be a reason why a PC version is not been announced, but at the same time needing more sales is the reason why we can be almost certain it will be released on PC eventually.. that double dip.

 

[Man Called Aerodynamics]

Are they saying that it needs to... or that they actually expect it to? Because the former is just being real. They've been throwing money at this game for 10 years. But the latter... Good luck.