lol sure thing pal
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Fivethirtyeight has Republicans at almost 70% chance of taking the Senate.
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lol sure thing pal
Earthstrike
Member
How successful have they been in this endeavour? The party the usually vote for (republican), still oppose the freedom to marry irrespective of gender and the freedom to choose what we drink and smoke (opposition to marijuana, and all drugs for that matter).
Considering these are two of the major social issues of the 21st century, libertarians are necessarily doing a pretty bad job at protecting freedom.
Sadly, that's not going to get through to anyone in here.
No liberal Democratic policy or rhetoric is wrong or should be unpopular. Independent 'Murikans all just become idiots joining conservative 'Murkians when their votes go to Republicans.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
You can facepalm it all you want, but it is true. The right has moved the bar so far to the right that the left is basically the right from years past.
Yeah, if even a slight majority of people think that repealing it would in some way hurt their lifestyle, it won't be repealed. 'Pubs were pushing hard to repeal it in 2012 because they knew that once it became implemented, it would be near impossible to repeal barring disastrous results.
Not even just compared to years past, but also compared to a lot of the world right now.
Basically a lot of the right in this country is crazy pants mustache twirling sort of faaaaar right. A lot of the left has stepped to the right. Are there some dems that are actually left? Yes (Warren). And some republicans that are actually more sane right? Sure. But, by and large the political spectrum is right wing here in this country.
Coriolanus
Banned
This might shock you, but so are Republicans, despite what they say. They also say they are fiscally conservative, even while spending out the ass.
All a difference of where the money is going.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
Great, do nothing congress will actually become even more do nothing congress.
And raising taxes on the middle class is not something Obama or Democrats want to do. If anything, Republican tax policies end up hurting the middle class more than anything. Just look at what Reagan did.
Empirically, the middle class has gained from Democratic policies than Republicans. As Archer would say, READ A BOOK.
And raising taxes on the middle class is not something Obama or Democrats want to do. If anything, Republican tax policies end up hurting the middle class more than anything. Just look at what Reagan did.
Empirically, the middle class has gained from Democratic policies than Republicans. As Archer would say, READ A BOOK.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
As far as social issues, can you ever imagine having anything other than a libertarian view? Which party can you see in the future supporting those views?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Libertarians are worse than Ralph Nader. All bullshit fantasy talk.
Left-right single line spectrum is an ineffective way to academically label belief systems. It works as a quick way to refer to what party you are speaking about(in America the left is composed of democrats/liberals, the right is conservatives/republicans/tea party...internationally speaking our democrats would be more to the right if their party existed in say France) and generally libertarians have more common ground with conservatives then liberals. But the idea that libertarians are center in any spectrum is nonsense. Simply because they hold very specific views against taxation, property rights, government and exceptions for military that will almost always put them in their own unique spot. Certainly not in the middle.
As for your elementary school assessment of liberals, lol. At least make an attempt to accurately protray them otherwise you just come off ignorant.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
An actual libertarian or the water downed I'm going to run as a republican but call myself a libertarian because I want to distance myself from those batshit crazies. Then proceed to caucus with said batshit crazies and mysteriously lose all your libertarian convictions on social issues when it comes time to vote.
Agreed.
Is dumb Murcia really to blame for this election? The democrats can't run fast enough from they're own party's accomplishments. Hell delegates for Obama won't admit they even voted for the guy. When people see a party that won't even claim what they've passed the last six years why would anyone look at that and go wow that's a group I can get behind. Bill Maher really nailed it last night on what the real problem this cycle has been, the democrats have blew the messaging. Don't run the campaign to the popular polling data, fucking move the polls to your message!
starwarsfan541
Banned
Considering polls average a R+2.5 to 4 advantage compared to reality, Its very possible dems hold the senate and its also quite possible we wont know the majority due to run offs in LA and GA.
The democrats have a fairly strong history since the 80's of trying too hard to come off as republicans. They borrow conservative language, conservative marketing and often try and mix in conservative legislation as a means to appear more conservative.
The ACA is a perfect encapsulation of this problem. You start with a already compromised position by adopting republican legislation and then allow yourself to get dragged even further right. More conservative democrats are worried about the day to day media cycle so they help push legislation even more conservative. Democrats bend to republicans who were never going to vote for it. And since the conservative legislation they modified was always a fairly weak method of reform, the outcome was poor. So now those conservative democrats that weakened the legislation are safe for a few months, maybe even years. But when the weak legislation becomes a liability because of how much they neutered it, the other party gets to disown it and the conservative democrat now looks bad because the legislation wasn't a roaring success. Which it could of been if they just took a more long term approach to governing their self image and were true to their beliefs to start.
CloudyTuba
Member
Yup. Don't like the way Walmart or McDonalds treats employees? Those chains are a republican wonderland. Apply it to the whole country and that's the republican future.
meanspartan
Member
So you think most Democrats cast "illegal" votes?
meanspartan
Member
I said earlier Id vote for a 1970S style Republican, and Id consider voting for someone like Huntsman.
But the Gop has gone so far to the right that for the most part I cant in good conscience vote for them.
I really hate how many people seem to think Huntsman was moderate. He just didn't sound like a loony bin mustache twirling idiot like a few of the rest, but he was still out there. He endorsed the Paul Ryan budget. That's faaaaaaaaaar right.
meanspartan
Member
facepalm.jpg
You thinking it is a lie doesn't make it a lie, as it is indeed true. Talk shit about fox news all you want, I don't watch their channel.
Why facepalm?
Obama has for the most part cut taxes (until the start of term 2 when the rich began payin a bit more), cut spending, and REDUCED the size of the federal workforce by hundreds of thousands.
Other than the first, no recent Republican President has done this other than HW Bush. Reagan and Bush 2 blew up the deficit and greatly expanded government jobs. Obama is a better conservative in practice than self proclaimed conservatives are.
Compare Democrats to today to those of FDR or LBJ's eras, and it's clear they are far more conservative now.
When FOX proclaims Obama "hurr durr moast liberal prez evar! Benghazi!" FDR, LBJ, and even TR roll around in their grave.
meanspartan
Member
I didnt say I would definitively, but yes, when you dont say crazy stupid shit you have my attention and can make your case to me.
meanspartan
Member
Traditionally, a sizable amount of the opposing party supports a newly elected or reelected President's platform (like Democrat Congress in 1981 giving Reagan his tax cuts that they dezpised).
Because the people had spoken in the election, and voted to support the Prez and his platform, so at least the main planks he'd get. With Obama, he campaigned on stimulus and health reform but Republicans decided before his inauguration to stonewall, fuck the voters.
"Our most important goal this session is to ensure Presidet Obama isnt reelected". -gop majority leader McConnell.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
We just have to unskew the polls, guys!
meanspartan
Member
I agree we should always hesitate to "unskew" to make us feel better. But in 2010, despite being very good for the GOP, DID have polls overstating their support by about that much.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
What's more likely:
a) Nate Silver is not aware of this fact
b) He is aware of this fact and there's something you're missing
Earthstrike
Member
I see the democrat party eventually supporting these views. It's just following a trend really. Support for the legalization of marijuana is coming out of the democratic camp, which is why democtratic states are legalizing the drug. Eventually support for other drugs will follow suit.
There are some other factors. For one, the private prison industry lobbies the republican party really hard, and drug laws are what makes them money, so the republican party has incentives to suppress individual freedom to do drugs at the cost of taxpayers paying for the welfare of all those incarcerated under such laws.
Bulbo Urethral Baggins
Banned
The prison industry is in no way just a Republican thing.
speculawyer
Member
Even on the off chance that Dems lose the whitehouse . . . it will be another 2 years down the road with Obamacare.
Good luck on the GOP taking away healthcare from millions.
Coriolanus
Banned
Given that it is intensely reliant on the war on drugs, weeeeelll......
You could always look at it from the "fuck minorities" angle too, should you ever overcome the drugs hurdle.
Democrats sure are some cretinous fucks for not running against that much, tho.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
Well 538 is ludicrously accurate, so it's happening
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
ACA isn't going anywhere it is here to stay. I'm sure there will be tweaks but the idea of a full-on repeal is mere fantasy. Good luck with that messaging as millions of currently insured individuals who couldn't get/afford insurance get it taken away. Lets not even discuss the individuals who got covered through expanded medicaid.
If Republicans get control of the Senate I'll enjoy watching the spin on why they are no longer pushing for repeal.
Eh, not like much was going to get done in the next few years anyways. Now I'm just looking forward to 2020, 2nd term dem president + house + senate
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
How are Dem's getting control of the house?
I take it you do not want to clarify why this is great news?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Democrats had a 6.4 point advantage in the house in 1984. That advantage was completely gone by 1990.
Gerrymandering decays over time. Part of gerrymandering is actually creating diverse districts that includes just enough to still have an easy election, making sure you leave enough of your party's voters to other districts so that the party wins multiple districts it wouldn't otherwise win. It's not easy to predict 8 years in the future if a 60-40 district all of a sudden becomes a 50-50 district because the group you don't want happened to grow faster than the group you do want.
The Albatross
Member
Historically a President's 6th year congressional election usually swings against him. The only one since world War two that did not, I think, was Clintons 6th, which maintained status quo. Although, I believe Obama has lost more seats in the house and Senate than any other 2 at term president in about 40 years if the predictions hold up on Tuesday. Much of that is also because he took the white house w with the largest single party majority in 70 years so he had more to loose.
No, that's the problem when you group people by halves and they shepherd themselves into predesignated sets of opinions.
speculawyer
Member
Barack Lesnar
Banned
What will the census do? I'm uninformed.
exmachina64
Banned
makingmusic476
Member
The census is when we redraw the district maps. If one party has control of way more state governments than the other when the census rolls around, as the Republicans did after the 2010 elections, they can gerrymander more districts than the other party, making them more favorable to their party's candidates.
This is why the Republicans had a couple million less votes than Democrats across all House races in 2012, but they won 35 more seats. the 2010 election results ultimately gave them a systemic advantage in subsequent elections.
People can only vote for what's on the ballot, and our primary system is designed to only allow people who can survive the party's selection process to get placed on it. Now, you could say that people could get more involved in the primary process, but America's system is so convoluted and deliberately confusing that anyone with any kind of life usually doesn't have time to pay attention to it.
exmachina64
Banned
Republicans controlled the process in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010, right?
Gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement have kept the Republican Party viable in elections this past decade.
benjipwns
Banned
I feel like we're going to need to pass a law forcing people to define "left" and "right" before they start talking about whether things are far-left or far-right or whatever.
I find two of those extremely doubtful, and the third highly questionable.
benjipwns
Banned
So 2000 redistricting round is the switch.
1982: Democrats controlled 34 of 49 state legislatures. Republicans controlled 10.
1992: Democrats controlled 26 of 49 state legislatures. Republicans controlled 7.
2002: Republicans controlled 21 of 49 state legislatures. Democrats controlled 16.
13ish states use commissions to draw the lines but you can look up on your own when these came into being.
1982: Democrats controlled 34 of 49 state legislatures. Republicans controlled 10.
1992: Democrats controlled 26 of 49 state legislatures. Republicans controlled 7.
2002: Republicans controlled 21 of 49 state legislatures. Democrats controlled 16.
13ish states use commissions to draw the lines but you can look up on your own when these came into being.
neurosisxeno
Member
This election cycle is pretty meaningless. You have an entire wave of Republicans running against Obama, who is out in 2 years anyway. This sets the stage for a Democratic Bloodbath in 2016 when Republicans get to explain why in 2 years with a House and Senate majority they did nothing but fail to repeal Obamacare, obstruct Obama, and try and pass nothing but Abortion legislation, all while the policies Obama passed in his first 4-6 years increase in effectiveness and popularity. I mean, what do Republicans really have to complain about? Unemployment is dropping, the Deficit is shrinking very fast, Government employment is below GWB-era levels, and Economic Growth is good.
They will have no platform outside of "Gays are bad, abortion is bad, vote Republican!" This is also as minorities, women, and young adults all continue to favor Democrats, and as they get older and Republicans fail to adequately block them from from voting they will start to drown out the voices of racist old white people.
They will have no platform outside of "Gays are bad, abortion is bad, vote Republican!" This is also as minorities, women, and young adults all continue to favor Democrats, and as they get older and Republicans fail to adequately block them from from voting they will start to drown out the voices of racist old white people.
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