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[TheCochese]

See #1, home charging stations, also the large network of charging stations that will be built between now and 2040

You're not the first one to think about "remote rural towns" when it comes to this.

The batteries and the vehicles are also going to have to meet the demands of the people in these rural towns. This isn't just an infrastructure issue.

I'm sure at some point they will, but we have to get to that point or at least have it on the horizon and make the technology in these trucks (usually) the same price as conventional or it's a non-starter.

 

[subrock]

This kind of announcement from major governments has the added bonus of affecting the R&D investment decisions of major car manufacturers.

Yep, this is what I’m most excited about. Make a few big markets electric only and they all start to fall like dominos.

 

[Nastrodamous]

good news. the sooner we get rid of petrol/diesel vehicles the better.

i hope more countries/manufacturers back this. it's unbelievable what we are putting out into the earth. i myself have decided to get rid of my car and buy a bicycle.



you care more about the sound your car makes than it spewing disgusting emissions into the air we breathe? alright then.

if we actually cared about emissions we would start regulating freighter ships. So until they start caring I won't.

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

And some people have a really narrow view of how things will change in the future.

Cars will basically go like this eventually:

Stage 1) Go electric
Stage 2) Go self-driving
Stage 3) Introduce self-driving taxis
Stage 4) offer subscription service so you can schedule a car to drive you around when you need it.
Stage 5) This becomes the standard way of using cars

Why spend thousands on a car when you can spend a fraction less and still get a private pod/car come pick you up and drive you where you want? By this point humans wont be allowed to drive anyway so what is your motivation for buying a car?

Why buy a car and own that equity, stop paying for it, and have something of value to sell or trade later when you can just rent it in perpetuity forever, vastly overpaying for it in the end!



People who want to drive, or have sports cars, or petrol cars will be able to get their fix as there will be a market for enthusiasts. Everyone else who'd rather take Uber or Taxis or buy a Point A to Point B appliance will get their cheap plastic box to sit in.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Well, they aren't taking my WRX away from me. Will gladly invest in an electric car in the future, but my wrex stays.

I'd imagine owning it will be ok but it might be illegal to drive on public roads. Might have to be track days only.

See #1, home charging stations, also the large network of charging stations that will be built between now and 2040

You're not the first one to think about "remote rural towns" when it comes to this.

I think it will actually be easier/cheaper from an infrastructure standpoint to generate electricity locally in rural places than trucking gas all over the country,

 

[Khaz]

Well I guess cities will need to evolve with society anyway... It's not like the "use your car to do everything" culture is that old, it's barely 50 years of our history.

And before that we used horses for the exact same purpose. The problem of personal transportation is slightly older than 50 years.

 

[kswiston]

I think that all developed countries should ban the sales of new gas-powered cars by 2030, and then ban the general use of gas-powered cars by 2050. Make it so that you can apply for a permit to drive classic cars. Given that fully automated cars should be the standard by 2050, those "dumb cars" should probably be limited anyhow.

 

[bionic77]

Last I checked the main way to produce hydrogen was cracking hydrocarbons, so it doesn't really help with renewable energy.(another way would be electrolysis, but then we'd be back to needing electricity)

I don't know if there are enough rare earth minerals to produce a few billion electric cars so that is why I wondered if hydrogen was the next step.

I know a few car companies have made some bad ass prototypes. And in theory it is something that a "gas station" or its equivalent could make locally.

 

[Alx]

And before that we used horses for the exact same purpose. The problem of personal transportation is slightly older than 50 years.

In horses times, people had everything at walking distance. Not everybody owned a horse, and even those who did spent a major part of the time walking at its side.
Horses were mostly useful for communications and long distance travel (provided you changed them at stations), and we have better solutions than individual transport for those already.

 

[s_mirage]

So, I have a few questions:

Is lithium battery production environmentally friendly?
Does France mine the raw materials and produce the batteries that this will require, and if not, what do they intend to do to to ensure that the mining process has minimal environmental impact to the countries it is taking place in?
Can the French electricity grid actually supply the necessary power required for all cars to be charged, and if not, what is the environmental impact of additional capacity?

To say I'm sceptical that this will work without some pretty major caveats is an understatement.

 

[O_Atoll]

WOW. I am blown away by France leadership. So forward thinking.

 

[fantomena]

Nice stuff. Hopefully it works out for them. but I'll remain skeptical.

 

[Mivey]

What will they do if people in the country side refuse to buy new cars and continue using their old timers?
I suppose their only choice would be to build a giant car-destroying robot (powered by solar, of course) that liberates them from their Earth-killing death traps.

 

[Wiped89]

What will they do if people in the country side refuse to buy new cars and continue using their old timers?
I suppose their only choice would be to build a giant car-destroying robot (powered by solar, of course) that liberates them from their Earth-killing death traps.

Well once they are illegal you won't be able to tax or insure them. Which means the moment you take it onto a road the police could pull you over and seize the car.

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

We shouldn't look at this through the lens of current petrol engines either. 90s cars by 2030 will be few and far between, only classic cars will remain, and those will be in the dozens, at most.

A Porsche in 2030 will probably be a very efficient, low carbon foot print, hybrid model.

 

[TheCochese]

In horses times, people had everything at walking distance. Not everybody owned a horse, and even those who did spent a major part of the time walking at its side.
Horses were mostly useful for communications and long distance travel (provided you changed them at stations), and we have better solutions than individual transport for those already.

Again, ONLY IN AND AROUND CITIES.

Why is this so hard to understand?

Well once they are illegal you won't be able to tax or insure them. Which means the moment you take it onto a road the police could pull you over and seize the car.

Good luck getting rural states to sign off on that.

 

[Alx]

Again, ONLY IN AND AROUND CITIES.

Why is this so hard to understand?
.

Because in France we also have good support for transport and communication outside of cities.

 

[TheCochese]

Because in France we also have good support for transport and communication outside of cities.

Well, the conversation has long since pivoted to the entire world.

Europe, this is going to be much easier to do than the US.

 

[Alx]

The point being : it can be done, you just have to build it.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

If any country has a prospect of going all electric, it's Canada with it's low population and dense yet vast lands. Sadly, we sell oil for a living.

 

[TheCochese]

Almost anything can be done, it's a matter of how much, when, and are the right people in place to support it.

The US has none of those three, and no timeline as to when that might change.

 

[Wiped89]

Again, ONLY IN AND AROUND CITIES.

Why is this so hard to understand?



Good luck getting rural states to sign off on that.

That's how it works here in the UK. If you have no tax or no insurance the police seize your car.

I imagine that's how it will work in France too. I'm sure there will be a long transition period.

 

[shiba5]

If they made an electric pickup truck that could pull a horse trailer, I'd totally buy it. As it is, I'll be hanging on to my Ford ecoBoost for awhile.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

Well, the conversation has long since pivoted to the entire world.

Europe, this is going to be much easier to do than the US.

Yeah, regardless of technological improvements, personal vehicles will always be the main mode of transportation for the vast majority of the US. There's no getting around it.

 

[AstroNut325]

Needs to be sooner. 2025 or 2030 at the latest.

 

[Ithil]

Fuck this.

An outright ban is garbage.

Let enthusiasts drive petrol/diesel cars.

"I like cars" is a pretty shitty reason to let you continue to pollute.

 

[otake]

Paris is going to be even more beautiful without the petrol cars.

 

[Neo C.]

Well, the conversation has long since pivoted to the entire world.

Europe, this is going to be much easier to do than the US.

I don't 100% agree with Tony Seba, but his analysis is quite coherent. The cost of driving is going to be so cheap that it shouldn't cost prohibitive to call an autonomous driving service in the rural area.

I think he underestimated the car as a status symbol and the privacy we enjoy in our own car, but I don't doubt that owning a car will become a luxury instead of a necessity. I'm a car owner and I already feel this way.

 

[TheCochese]

I don't 100% agree with Tony Seba, but his analysis is quite coherent. The cost of driving is going to be so cheap that it shouldn't cost prohibitive to call an autonomous driving service in the rural area.

I think he underestimated the car as a status symbol and the privacy we enjoy in our own car, but I don't doubt that owning a car will become a luxury instead of a necessity. I'm a car owner and I already feel this way.

So the car/truck is going to drive itself 60-100 miles to where you are, and you're going to have to wait on it?

"The dog is sick, we need to get it to the vet."
*There are no vehicles currently available*

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Yeah, regardless of technological improvements, personal vehicles will always be the main mode of transportation for the vast majority of the US. There's no getting around it.

Not really, the majority of the population lives in and around major metropolitan areas, and that's only going to grow as time goes on.

 

[nabe_shogun]

Needs to be sooner. 2025 or 2030 at the latest.

You need affordable electric cars on the market that are as good as gas powered cars for this to work. That's why its so far away as you need the technology to advance and automakers to get on board.

Until electric cars can do what gas/diesel cars can already do when it comes to refueling time, cost, ect., the majority of the population won't consider buying an electric car.

 

[KingSnake]

So the car/truck is going to drive itself 60-100 miles to where you are, and you're going to have to wait on it?

"The dog is sick, we need to get it to the vet."
*There are no vehicles currently available*

"Our vet cabinet offers free pickup"

 

[s_mirage]

Paris is going to be even more beautiful without the petrol cars.

Yeah, but what about where the huge amount of extra batteries will have to be produced and the materials mined? I'm guessing that's not France, and if not, doesn't that just push a different environmental problem onto someone else?

 

[Stumpokapow]

It's actually better for the environment to keep the car you have for as long as you can then replace it with a new one, even if it's electric.

This is true but there is probably some collective superadditivity; i.e. each individual car replacement is a small net negative environmentally, but transitioning society to being able to support better electric infrastructure and lowering cost of electric cars through economies of scale might compensate for this. So we may have a situation where something is individually irrational but collectively rational. The other thing is that the government is optimizing both over environmental considerations and economic considerations, and it's probably a net good for employment and business in France if everyone is buying new cars, even if the state is subsidizing the purchases. Hard to say the overall impact of the transition.

 

[Emperor_Uriel]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if, by 2040, all manually operated cars are banned as well. The future is electric and self-driving.

 

[Fantastapotamus]

Fuck this.

An outright ban is garbage.

Let enthusiasts drive petrol/diesel cars.

Fuck enthusiasts.
Get enthusiastic about something less world destroying.

 

[pr0cs]

If any country has a prospect of going all electric, it's Canada with it's low population and dense yet vast lands. Sadly, we sell oil for a living.

Our weather makes this notion a pipe dream. With current technology anyway

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

How is this expected to work in apartment complexes and other living quarters where you wouldn't necessarily have the capability of charging your car overnight? Are you gonna have charging cables hanging out of everyone's window, are the complexes going to build outdoor charging stations with locks on them for each resident? Or are we going to be a less to fully charge these vehicles at a station as quickly as we can refill with gas?

I'm speaking from a US perspective where public transportation isn't enough to reliably get around in the overwhelming majority of this country.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Our weather makes this notion a pipe dream. With current technology anyway

it makes solar a pipe dream, not wind, geothermal, tidal, or hydroelectric.

 

[Marvie_3]

Fuck enthusiasts.
Get enthusiastic about something less world destroying.

This.

Love what France is doing here. Hopefully more countries do the same.

 

[Theonik]

Here's a clip from Adam Ruins Everything on the subject.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQLbakWESkw

This argument is built on several pretty major assumptions that make the argument kind of sketchy. For one France is 80% nuclear with coal slated to be completely phased one by 2022 and already only getting some 4% of their power from coal with another 5% coming from natural gas and the rest from renewables and other EU countries import energy from France or you have Sweden and Norway which inter-depend with one another with Norway getting 90% of their power from renewables and also being one of the leading natural gas producers on top of being one of the most EV dependent countries!

Vehicle replacement wise that's a point but it's not the full picture again because it disregards the economic realities of the situation. Most people will either be replacing vehicles every 3-5 years either because of maintenance costs or just as an upgrade. But there is limits to their spending. Then you consider the vehicles don't just disintegrate but are re-used or recycled. Then if EVs are more reliable then they will live longer in the car ecosystem and require less replacement parts over time which is a good thing.

If any country has a prospect of going all electric, it's Canada with it's low population and dense yet vast lands. Sadly, we sell oil for a living.

Oil producers are the best candidates for renewable energy because you don't want to burn oil you can sell so if you can channel the profits on renewable that's a huge benefit. Solar is also not the only alternative energy source out there either!

Yeah, but what about where the huge amount of extra batteries will have to be produced and the materials mined? I'm guessing that's not France, and if not, doesn't that just push a different environmental problem onto someone else?

Petrol cars don't simply materialise you know. We are already working on largely sustainable manufacturing infrastructure on EVs and battery recycling is already largely possible too.
Moreover, distribution of electricity is much cleaner than petrol too and the infrastructure is there already by and large.

 

[Frankfurter]

Fuck enthusiasts.
Get enthusiastic about something less world destroying.

I'm totally fine with those "enthusiasts", they just need to pay the proper price. Say $15 per gallon.

 

[Hoo-doo]

until electric engines sound as good as my V8, I'm not in.

You have your priorities pretty messed up.

Have you driven a high-end EV?

 

[leatherhat]

With they way electric is growing and battery technology is improving petrol cars will probably not be sold in 2040 simply due to the realities of capitalism. This seems more like a PR move than an actual goal to achieve.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

With they way electric is growing and battery technology is improving they will probably not be sold in 2040 simply due to the realities of capitalism. This seems more like a PR move than an actual goal to achieve.

Nothing you wrote reflects the realities of capatilism or the market as it stands, or where the market will be in a decade

 

[Mael]

Why the fuck would you do long distance travel by car in France anyway?
Because train fucking sucks.
If they're serious about this, they need to seriously improve train infrastructure or some places will be very very hard to reach.
And yeah if you wanna go from Spain to Germany, you won't use your car unless you're actually visiting France.
A car is one of the least efficient way to do that.

 

[Hari Seldon]

I'm totally fine with those "enthusiasts", they just need to pay the proper price. Say $15 per gallon.

Shit if the rest of the world goes EV the gas will be so cheap in the US it will be mostly tax lol.

 

[leatherhat]

Nothing you wrote reflects the realities of capatilism or the market as it stands, or where the market will be in a decade

Technology changes and market disruptions happen fast. I'm quite confident that in 2040 the vast majority of cars sold will be electric, with petrol vehicles limited to a specialty/collectors market. They'll probably be self driving too.

 

[titiklabingapat]

This is how it starts. Many other countries will do exactly the same and gas powered cars will be relegated to museums. Eventually it'll even happen here in the US as gas stations eventually dry up later this century as all new cars will eventually switch to electric or hydrogen.

The air pollution and smog in localities will do more to push electric cars, I think. It is absolutely dreadful in many cities, including Paris.

It is somewhat happening here in California too, especially Los Angeles along with the state rebates. The smog is a good and visible reminder about what's at stake here.

 

[jstripes]

Because it won't hurt.
It's about classics mostly.
Some People like to drive 50 years old cars
I doubt those will be banned, unlike the traffic is not on the roads anymore or already 100% autonom

Ontario (Canada) has "heritage" plates available for cars that meet certain requirements, and it exempts them from things like emissions tests. I imagine something like that would be set up in France.

Of course, today's ordinary car is the "heritage" car of 50 years from now.