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[s_mirage]

Petrol cars don't simply materialise you know. We are already working on largely sustainable manufacturing infrastructure on EVs and battery recycling is already largely possible too.
Moreover, distribution of electricity is much cleaner than petrol too and the infrastructure is there already by and large.

Yes, the production of regular cars has an environmental impact, that much is obvious. My bone of contention is that most people who praise battery powered electric cars as the future act as if the batteries and the power to charge them are pulled from the ether. I'd like to see some figures on the actual potential impact.

Are there any figures on the power demands of charging an equivalent number of electric cars as there are petrol/diesel driven cars today? Would extra power stations need to be built, and what would they be powered by? Also, is there any information on the environmental impact of the disposal/recycling of millions of car size battery packs, considering they tend to have a limited life span?

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Technology changes and market disruptions happen fast. I'm quite confident that in 2040 the vast majority of cars sold will be electric, with petrol vehicles limited to a specialty/collectors market. They'll probably be self driving too.

Oh, what you wrote seemed to imply that the technology would be sold off and companies would black ball the tech, sorry

 

[Theonik]

Shit if the rest of the world goes EV the gas will be so cheap in the US it will be mostly tax lol.

Demand of gasoline will drop but so will supply of gasoline refineries will simply shift to other more lucrative petroleum products. That will increase it's cost. Also there is lots of room for punitive taxation when we are not relying in gasoline as a fuel.

 

[leatherhat]

Oh, what you wrote seemed to imply that the technology would be sold off and companies would black ball the tech, sorry

Rereading I can see it could be read as electric cars not being sold in 2040. I'm going to edit for clarity.

 

[Vixdean]

But wait, I thought everyone said Macron was some awful centrist who would ruin liberalism in Europe?

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

But wait, I thought everyone said Macron was some awful centrist who would ruin liberalism in Europe?

He is.

This doesn't change that.

 

[Reg]

Hopefully Canada makes bold moves like this as well.

 

[Hello? This is Hailun!]

You have your priorities pretty messed up.

Have you driven a high-end EV?

There really aren't any. The Tesla Roadster is pretty good but with spirited driving it gets around 50 miles tops and has no super charger, so it's out of commission for an entire day after a very few laps.

The only other High End EVs are giants like the Rimac are well outside of purchase for anyone.

 

[Always-honest]

Goooood. Maybe they can make Paris look nice again.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Demand of gasoline will drop but so will supply of gasoline refineries will simply shift to other more lucrative petroleum products. That will increase it's cost. Also there is lots of room for punitive taxation when we are not relying in gasoline as a fuel.

Gas prices are mostly inflated based on speculation on future demand, not on the cost to produce it. If demand continues to drop gas prices will definitely drop. Punitive taxation on gasoline requires fantasy land thinking of democrats actually winning state elections so you might as well wish for aliens to land and solve all of our tech problems.

 

[Flo_Evans]

This is true but there is probably some collective superadditivity; i.e. each individual car replacement is a small net negative environmentally, but transitioning society to being able to support better electric infrastructure and lowering cost of electric cars through economies of scale might compensate for this. So we may have a situation where something is individually irrational but collectively rational. The other thing is that the government is optimizing both over environmental considerations and economic considerations, and it's probably a net good for employment and business in France if everyone is buying new cars, even if the state is subsidizing the purchases. Hard to say the overall impact of the transition.

The problem is not all cars are equal.

https://www.boston.com/cars/news-an...ated-air-pollution-comes-from-only-25-of-cars

Its mostly old and broken crap producing the loins share of pollution.

Rather than forcing everyone to upgrade they really should be more strict with inspecting older cars. To scrap a newer ICE engine car doesn't make much sense.

I'd imagine most people driving old run down cars aren't doing it because they are classics though, if offered enough incentive it would make sense to get these "problem cars" off the road.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The problem is not all cars are equal.

https://www.boston.com/cars/news-an...ated-air-pollution-comes-from-only-25-of-cars

Its mostly old and broken crap producing the loins share of pollution.

Rather than forcing everyone to upgrade they really should be more strict with inspecting older cars. To scrap a newer ICE engine car doesn't make much sense.

Errr, the presumption is that some time between 2017 and 2040 they will be phasing out older cars, that the upgrade incentives will be commensurate with the car you currently had, and that there will be a time period (probably at least 10 years) between when you can effectively only buy an electric car and when you are no longer permitted to drive a non-electric car. There won't be any model 1 Hummers or w/e on the roads by the time this ban takes effect.

 

[Mael]

Gas prices are mostly inflated based on speculation on future demand, not on the cost to produce it. If demand continues to drop gas prices will definitely drop. Punitive taxation on gasoline requires fantasy land thinking of democrats actually winning state elections so you might as well wish for aliens to land and solve all of our tech problems.

On top of that, Diesel is heavily subsidized in France.
So much that it actually cost less at the gas station than regular gas because it was deemed "safer" for the environment.

Goooood. Maybe they can make Paris look nice again.

The effect of atmospheric pollution cannot be overstated.
It's costing cities millions to make sure the cities don't look like soot covered PoS.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

Not really, the majority of the population lives in and around major metropolitan areas, and that's only going to grow as time goes on.

And yet over 90% of the population still owns at least one car. Our country is too big and spread out to rely on public transportation.

 

[TheCochese]

Errr, the presumption is that some time between 2017 and 2040 they will be phasing out older cars, that the upgrade incentives will be commensurate with the car you currently had, and that there will be a time period (probably at least 10 years) between when you can effectively only buy an electric car and when you are no longer permitted to drive a non-electric car. There won't be any model 1 Hummers or w/e on the roads by the time this ban takes effect.

There should never be a time where you aren't allowed to own/drive a non-electric car. Want to make it cost-preventative to do so, that's one thing.

I need my '69 Camaro.

 

[Mael]

There should never be a time where you aren't allowed to own/drive a non-electric car. Want to make it cost-preventative to do so, that's one thing.

I need my '69 Camaro.

In France?
If you have a Camaro you probably can afford another car to drive anywhere at all.

 

[Hari Seldon]

The problem is not all cars are equal.

https://www.boston.com/cars/news-an...ated-air-pollution-comes-from-only-25-of-cars

Its mostly old and broken crap producing the loins share of pollution.

Rather than forcing everyone to upgrade they really should be more strict with inspecting older cars. To scrap a newer ICE engine car doesn't make much sense.

I'd imagine most people driving old run down cars aren't doing it because they are classics though, if offered enough incentive it would make sense to get these "problem cars" off the road.

I remember the buy back program in the US for old and shitty cars being pretty effective. They should do that for like a month out of every year, it seemed really popular. Also that study forgot the big asterisk of modern diesel cars that just cheat the damn emissions test.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

And yet over 90% of the population still owns at least one car. Our country is too big and spread out to rely on public transportation.

Yes, as of right now. That is going to change in the coming years

 

[Stumpokapow]

There should never be a time where you aren't allowed to own/drive a non-electric car. Want to make it cost-preventative to do so, that's one thing.

I need my '69 Camaro.

You seem very worried about a regulatory change in a country you don't live in that will take effect when you're a senior citizen.

 

[TheCochese]

In France?
If you have a Camaro you probably can afford another car to drive anywhere at all.

Anywhere.

Cars need to be run and driven periodically to keep them in shape. Unless you are just interested in a museum piece.

America needs to work on it's dependence on fossil fuels elsewhere first before this is even a starter.

You seem very worried about a regulatory change in a country you don't live in that will take effect when you're a senior citizen.

As stated earlier, the conversation expanded outside France some time ago.

 

[Straight Edge]

Their needs to be at least 20 years between a sales ban and an outright ban.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

But wait, I thought everyone said Macron was some awful centrist who would ruin liberalism in Europe?

Nicolas Hulot though

 

[thehypocrite]

Fuck this.

An outright ban is garbage.

Let enthusiasts drive petrol/diesel cars.

Nah. I rather not.

 

[mrklaw]

By then driverless will be more widespread and perhaps the idea of 'owning' a car at all will be less prevalent. I'd be perfectly happy to pay a reasonably amount to just have access to a car to get me from A to B and while I'm there it can be driving other people around

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

Yes, as of right now. That is going to change in the coming years

I assume you're referring to the fantasy of everyone using driverless taxis to go everywhere.

 

[Stumpokapow]

As stated earlier, the conversation expanded outside France some time ago.

Right, so let's assume the US bans your Camaro in 2050-60 (a reasonable time delay given the US's traditional lag on these issues), and let's assume there are absolutely no recourse for driving non-electric cars anywhere -- you'll be like 70-80 years old, maybe 80-90 if you're older now, years old and your 80-91 year old car will be banned from driving. I ... don't think the time horizon we're talking about here is going to massively ruin your life.

I would be more worried about how you're going to pay for the hip replacement necessary to drive comfortably after the insurance market collapses and medicare doesn't cover them anymore, or how you'll afford not to sell the car after social security collapses and you get nothing when you retire. This is assuming a robot doesn't take your job in the next 10-20 years. And that the city you live in isn't underwater. And that our life expectancy doesn't continue declining because of the epidemic of heart disease and diabetes so you actually live to 70. And that the country doesn't get nuked.

 

[Theonik]

Gas prices are mostly inflated based on speculation on future demand, not on the cost to produce it. If demand continues to drop gas prices will definitely drop. Punitive taxation on gasoline requires fantasy land thinking of democrats actually winning state elections so you might as well wish for aliens to land and solve all of our tech problems.

Erm... Yes? But major refineries won't bother making it if the demand isn't there. There will be other more valuable petroleum products.
Opportunity cost of producing gas will be high. There is no economic scenario where ICE enthusiasts get to have their cake and eat it too.

 

[SmackDaddy]

Electric vehicles have better acceleration than gas stuff.

"Enthusiasts" should love this!

 

[TheCochese]

Right, so let's assume the US bans your Camaro in 2050-60 (a reasonable time delay given the US's traditional lag on these issues), and let's assume there are absolutely no recourse for driving non-electric cars anywhere -- you'll be like 70-80 years old, maybe 80-90 if you're older now, years old and your 80-91 year old car will be banned from driving. I ... don't think the time horizon we're talking about here is going to massively ruin your life.

I would be more worried about how you're going to pay for the hip replacement necessary to drive comfortably after the insurance market collapses and medicare doesn't cover them anymore, or how you'll afford not to sell the car after social security collapses and you get nothing when you retire. This is assuming a robot doesn't take your job in the next 10-20 years. And that the city you live in isn't underwater. And that our life expectancy doesn't continue declining because of the epidemic of heart disease and diabetes so you actually live to 70. And that the country doesn't get nuked.

You took that off the rails rather quickly.

Back to the actual subject at hand, my possessions don't stop existing when I do. It's something that I would hope to hand down, much like any other asset I have. We took a huge leap from banning sales to banning ownership, and I think that's the wrong track. Let the used market peter out on it's own, because it will. The average person who would keep own and maintain such a vehicle after a sales ban went into place is going to be the enthusiast, and would be interested in keeping it running as it should.

Let the market thin out the herd, so to speak. Gas stations will drop in number until eventually it in and of itself becomes an enthusiast's market. Your average driver isn't going to hold onto his or her petrol Citroen for an eternity. You could even position it like a carbon tax, which could be offset by having other aspects of your life even more green.

I just tend not to side with an approach to "ban all the things."

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Right, so let's assume the US bans your Camaro in 2050-60 (a reasonable time delay given the US's traditional lag on these issues), and let's assume there are absolutely no recourse for driving non-electric cars anywhere -- you'll be like 70-80 years old, maybe 80-90 if you're older now, years old and your 80-91 year old car will be banned from driving. I ... don't think the time horizon we're talking about here is going to massively ruin your life.

I would be more worried about how you're going to pay for the hip replacement necessary to drive comfortably after the insurance market collapses and medicare doesn't cover them anymore, or how you'll afford not to sell the car after social security collapses and you get nothing when you retire. This is assuming a robot doesn't take your job in the next 10-20 years. And that the city you live in isn't underwater. And that our life expectancy doesn't continue declining because of the epidemic of heart disease and diabetes so you actually live to 70. And that the country doesn't get nuked.

Lol what is all this crap? You can't be worried about this because there's other stuff to worry about? Why can't you do both?

 

[commedieu]

this is happening quickly. god damn.They'll probably have a luxury tax for wealthy people that want to use petrol, but seeing the performance of the hybrids/electric. Theres really no competition.I imagine companies doing conversions will make a mint, and technology will just get better and better.

If you all want your petrol fix, come to america.

 

[Trace]

this is happening quickly. god damn.

They'll probablty have a luxury tax for wealthy people that want to use petrol, but seeing the performance of the hybrids/electric. Theres really no competition.

I imagine companies doing conversions will make a mint, and technology will just get better and better.

Needs to happen faster IMO. A 2040 ban isn't fast enough assuming they don't actually ban the cars from the road on top of that.

 

[Fenderputty]

are they going to get them off the streets or just have them not be sold anymore by 2040.

If it's the latter, it's not particularly ambitious imho.

What are you basing your wild opinion on?

 

[Mael]

Anywhere.

Cars need to be run and driven periodically to keep them in shape. Unless you are just interested in a museum piece.

America needs to work on it's dependence on fossil fuels elsewhere first before this is even a starter.

America's infrastructure is dogshite compared to the EU.
Of course cars are needed there.
If you travel from the US to the EU, don't presume that the places you're going will accommodate cars at all.
Heck if you're in the north of italy and want to go to the East of France you have to cross actual mountains.
Drilling through mountains to make ways for inefficient cars isn't the soundest approach.

As stated earlier, the conversation expanded outside France some time ago.

Don't bring your Camaro into it then, it's not about your little life in somewhere America.
It wasn't why this decision was taken at all.
In France, you don't need to repeal 2 regulations to put this one in place.

I just tend not to side with an approach to "ban all the things."

I guess you would keep asbestos in construction if you had your way?

 

[Flo_Evans]

I remember the buy back program in the US for old and shitty cars being pretty effective. They should do that for like a month out of every year, it seemed really popular. Also that study forgot the big asterisk of modern diesel cars that just cheat the damn emissions test.

I remember the GOP going nuts about it for some reason.

"cash for clunkers"

I was pissed my old car was too new at the time to get free money.

I think we really need a federal emissions standard for cars on the road not just new cars. Its annoying to do inspections in my state and they can be quite troublesome if you have an older POS car... but it blows my mind there is basically nothing in some states and you can just drive whatever rust bucket death trap on public roads.

 

[TheCochese]

America's infrastructure is dogshite compared to the EU.
Of course cars are needed there.
If you travel from the US to the EU, don't presume that the places you're going will accommodate cars at all.
Heck if you're in the north of italy and want to go to the East of France you have to cross actual mountains.
Drilling through mountains to make ways for inefficient cars isn't the soundest approach.


Don't bring your Camaro into it then, it's not about your little life in somewhere America.
It wasn't why this decision was taken at all.
In France, you don't need to repeal 2 regulations to put this one in place.



I guess you would keep asbestos in construction if you had your way?

Pretty dumb thing to say, considering they did ban use of it but didn't mandate it be removed from all homes already built.

At least not here.

 

[Khaz]

Because in France we also have good support for transport and communication outside of cities.

lol no they don't. Countryside is isolated as fuck.

 

[nabe_shogun]

Electric vehicles have better acceleration than gas stuff.

"Enthusiasts" should love this!

There's more to driving than acceleration. The miata being popular is proof of this. I don't think there's a current electric car available that I would call exciting. Batteries still add a lot of weight compared to an ICE car. The technology still needs to improve a lot.

I remember the GOP going nuts about it for some reason.

"cash for clunkers"

I was pissed my old car was too new at the time to get free money.

I think we really need a federal emissions standard for cars on the road not just new cars. Its annoying to do inspections in my state and they can be quite troublesome if you have an older POS car... but it blows my mind there is basically nothing in some states and you can just drive whatever rust bucket death trap on public roads.

Well, as a car enthusiast I didn't like the program either. I live in a city that has emissions tests for cars all the way back to 1968. I was working at a dealership at the time, and pretty much every car in this program that came through was in perfect running condition. Because to eligible for the program, your car had to be registered for the past 12 months or something like that. On the upside anyway, I at least I made some good money selling parts off cars before they went to the scrapyard.

 

[Mael]

What a stupid thing to say.

There's sometime good reasons to just "ban things" you know.

lol no they don't. Countryside is isolated as fuck.

We found a solution :
No one gives a shit because no one lives there.
I'm not even kidding if you look at general policies for countryside, it's pretty much this.

 

[Goro Majima]

There should never be a time where you aren't allowed to own/drive a non-electric car. Want to make it cost-preventative to do so, that's one thing.

I need my '69 Camaro.

If the only thing remaining in 50 years is maybe ~50,000 gasoline powered sports cars in the US, I don't think that'd be an issue carbon wise. Hell all the sports cars on the road today probably is a small fraction of total US automobile carbon output. Car culture in general isn't a growing hobby so it'll die off naturally if they demand gasoline only.

I think the bigger issue is convincing somebody like young American rural white males to switch to electric pickup trucks versus some V8 thing with a rumbling masculine engine. There are several times more of those being driven than anything sporty. I don't think France has much of a pickup truck culture so they won't have to deal with that resistance.

 

[Mael]

considering they did ban use of it but didn't mandate it be removed from all homes already built.

At least not here.

This is horrifying.
If your building is old enough, you can have carcinogens particles flying in your building like it's nothing?
And yeah they mandate its removal in France, because usually the cost of removal was lower than the cost of people actually getting cancer.

 

[TheCochese]

If the only thing remaining in 50 years is maybe ~50,000 gasoline powered sports cars in the US, I don't think that'd be an issue carbon wise. Hell all the sports cars on the road today probably is a small fraction of total US automobile carbon output. Car culture in general isn't a growing hobby so it'll die off naturally if they demand gasoline only.

I think the bigger issue is convincing somebody like young American rural white males to switch to electric pickup trucks versus some V8 thing with a rumbling masculine engine. There are several times more of those being driven than anything sporty. I don't think France has much of a pickup truck culture so they won't have to deal with that resistance.

Agreed with all of this. In particular, with France having such a non-reliance (and shrinking) on fossil fuels, this shouldn't be that difficult of an ask. The amount of enthusiasts like this in France is probably even under the proportional population rate. The need to enact a driving ban after implementation probably isn't strictly needed.

As to the truck issue, in 2019 or so Ford will have a hybrid F-150 that can act as a generator. I'm extremely interested to see how that turns out. When trucks can approach the towing power of the HD truck lineups is when we'll see more of a shift.

The other thing that concerns me, as policies like this shift to bigger markets is - how ecologically sound are our battery-making processes? Are we shifting the impact from air to soil and water contamination? What is the outlook for any rare-earth minerals involved in this (or am I confusing that with other tech production)?

 

[TeddyBoy]

This is an excellent idea and I hope other countries start announcing similar plans soon.

The quicker we transition to electric cars the less damage we do to the environment.

 

[Hari Seldon]

If the only thing remaining in 50 years is maybe ~50,000 gasoline powered sports cars in the US, I don't think that'd be an issue carbon wise. Hell all the sports cars on the road today probably is a small fraction of total US automobile carbon output. Car culture in general isn't a growing hobby so it'll die off naturally if they demand gasoline only.

I think the bigger issue is convincing somebody like young American rural white males to switch to electric pickup trucks versus some V8 thing with a rumbling masculine engine. There are several times more of those being driven than anything sporty. I don't think France has much of a pickup truck culture so they won't have to deal with that resistance.

Well you have another CASH FOR PICKUPS program and buy the old shitty trucks. Young 18 year olds aren't going to be buying $60k brand new trucks.

 

[Boney]

Norway set aims for 2025

"Norway to 'completely ban petrol powered cars by 2025'" http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...-replace-with-electric-vehicles-a7065616.html

 

[takriel]

France and Norway are quickly becoming the Leaders of the World.

 

[MilkyJoe]

How will people get to Monaco?

 

[plagiarize]

Yes, the production of regular cars has an environmental impact, that much is obvious. My bone of contention is that most people who praise battery powered electric cars as the future act as if the batteries and the power to charge them are pulled from the ether. I'd like to see some figures on the actual potential impact.

Are there any figures on the power demands of charging an equivalent number of electric cars as there are petrol/diesel driven cars today? Would extra power stations need to be built, and what would they be powered by? Also, is there any information on the environmental impact of the disposal/recycling of millions of car size battery packs, considering they tend to have a limited life span?

Cradle to grave analysis puts my ev (based on the electricity generation in my state) equivalent to a hypothetical 86 mpg vehicle. as electricity continues to get greener, that'll keep climbing. That's ignoring that a good 2/3rds of the electricity we generate at home is solar to boot.

You can read more here:

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions#.WV6CiLpFyUm

 

[Mael]

How will people get to Monaco?

Fuck Monaco.
It's only notable because when France was on a spree to take over multiple city states near this place they 'forgot' about it.
Fucking tax haven for money laundering with shitty royalty.
If that fucks them over, good.

 

[nabe_shogun]

Well you have another CASH FOR PICKUPS program and buy the old shitty trucks. Young 18 year olds aren't going to be buying $60k brand new trucks.

Those rural 18 year olds who drive old trucks wouldn't have the money to buy anything new unless they got a new car for almost free. That and I think if they couldn't get a new truck, they'd just keep their old one.