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[Supervlieg]

Gaming is dead

 

[LCfiner]

No one has yet demonstrated an actual trend. You have the disparate trends of the burgeoning smartphone game market growing in revenue and the transitional period between dedicated handhelds, but no one has actually proven a trend associating both together.

Most of the actual data we have points to the opposite, that both industries are trending on their own terms.

this is true.

but Nintendo is obviously doing much worse than they expected with the 3DS hence the recent massive price drop. Now, if the Vita does not meet internal sales expectations, either, then I'd say it's a trend.

after all, there's only two established players to judge. if they both falter, there's no other competitor data points to compare against.

But to provide the other view, we need to see what happens to the 3DS now that the bigger nintendo titles are dropping and the price is under 200 bucks. if it takes off and sells consistently high after the holiday season, then there would no longer be a trend downward for the dedicated mobile gaming hardware. (And we will also know what consumers value a dedicated mobile gaming device to cost at most)

 

[Jokeropia]

Nintendo posted some charts in their last financial results briefing.

 

[Alexios]

but Nintendo is obviously doing much worse than they expected with the 3DS hence the recent massive price drop. Now, if the Vita does not meet internal sales expectations, either, then I'd say it's a trend.

But what they expected was much better than the DS, it still wasn't doing worse. The hardware price drop being all it took to get back in the race would show, if anything at all, that it's got nothing to do with phones and everything to do with needing a good business strategy. I mean, companies can fail on their own, they don't need a competitor to do bad. Nobody is saying Nintendo and others can do fine no matter what, of course they need to work for it, regardless of Apple.

 

[devildog820]

Why? Money is the same regardless of where it comes from. An indie dev puts out a game in hopes of making money from what he loves, and the platform being mobile or immobile doesn't affect that, only the potential success. You spoke as if iOS is the savior of indies. I simply disagreed with that as indies didn't need a savior. And yes, it's nice to have another viable platform, I never said it isn't. I don't think I name called but whatever.

Phones are what? Going by 3DS it seems its issues had nothing to do with phones as it's picking up pace in the same manner systems before it did once the pricing and games were there. Why would anyone assume Vita doesn't have the potential to do similar based on Sony's own decisions and instead Phones have to dominate everything within the next 5 years (since major business shifts can be done past that by handheld developers also if the issues mentioned here do become a real problem, it's not like they've remained static up until now, a few years ago we were discussing Nintendo similar to how Apple is discussed now, and other companies still did more than fine despite that as previous audiences for certain types of games don't disappear just because new audiences are added to the pool).

In the end, maybe some of the casual DS crowd will move to phones and tablets. But even kids will want a 3DS once games like Pokemon show up, nevermind the more serious gamer. Nintendo and other companies can still attract both casual and core gamers in their own way. If they fail or not is up to their own decisions, not phones.

Ah, I see the disconnect. I'm not saying cell phones are the savior of the indie industry. I'm saying that people decrying games on iOS/Android have it wrong and should be happy that there will likely be more breakout hits from people who might have avoided game development in the past. I'm saying it's an additive effect and not substitution.

I understand what you are saying about Nintendo five years ago, and Apple now. I guess I just trust Apple's/Android's roadmap more than Nintendo's. I'm also not saying Nintendo and Sony can't take full advantage of the trend. I'm just saying the model they are following now is in serious danger from cell phones. I'm proud of Nintendo for owning up to mistakes with the 3DS and it gives me hope that they won't become sidelined in the future. But fighting the growing cell phone trend is going to take a lot more than a 3D console and kick-ass games (as stupid as that sounds). I don't have the answer (if I did, I'd be a billionaire), but I'm certain what won't work.

 

[hyp]

Meh, most people don't want that level of depth in their handheld games, and for those that do there will always be ports. They are porting FF III and IV now, in a year they will be porting FF VII and VIII and in five years they can port FFXII and FFXIII.

so true. i love the bite sized, 99c nature of the games offered on the app store. i find i play way more new IPs and indie games on iOS than the games published by the big boys. if I want to play those type of games, I've got my PC and consoles. dedicated handheld "real games" can die a horrible death as far as I'm concerned.

 

[StevieP]

new devices with an Apple TV do it wirelessly. works well for most apps but there is some lag so it's not gonna be great for twitch games

AppleTV is an extra $120.

so true. i love the bite sized, 99c nature of the games offered on the app store. i find i play way more new IPs and indie games on iOS than the games published by the big boys. if I want to play those type of games, I've got my PC and consoles. dedicated handheld "real games" can die a horrible death as far as I'm concerned.

You're on a forum where the majority of its discussion revolves around games. I mean the kind that aren't 5 minute time wasters.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

This! Everyone read this! I keep screaming this and people still don't seem to get it. This is the bubble that's going to burst with massive fallout that will hurt both developers and consumers in the end. People don't seem to get it.

People don't understand that just because there is a surge of popularity and a rising trend that it means that it's a viable model. We see it all the time. The dot.com era, Netflix, social gaming, and now this.

If you're ok with shorter and more simple games, then that's fine, but it's the death of higher quality, more in depth games that we'll be losing as a result of this change in handheld gaming. I don't deny that people are moving towards iOS; in fact I fully see it, and that's the problem. It just amazes me that people seem to think everything can be dramatically lowered in price with no side effects. People think they can get rid of the $30 to $60 game for a 99 cent game and still get the same experience. People want to cut their $70 cable bill to pay $8 a month for the same content. What crazy unrealistic expectations do people have?

If a business practice isn't sustainable then too fucking bad, it's not going to succeed. Welcome to capitalism.

(not sure if that's what you were getting at but that's what I got)

While I don't think Nintendo will drop out of the portable race, I think they will certainly have to think hard about what strategy they're going to use next time around. $40 first party titles? That was already ridiculous when it was the norm, but now with the cheaper iOS pricing structure they'll have to adapt. Again, I don't see them dropping out when they have such powerful IPs, but they can't just keep going in the same direction. They need another big change a la Wii or DS.

 

[devildog820]

Apple or anyone else is the cause.

Apple/Android are definitely not the cause of this. They just predicted consumer electronics trends a lot better. Even then, they didn't get it right the first time. Apple didn't even want an app store and Android used to look more like a Blackberry. Fire up Game Center on an iOS device if you still think that Apple has a handle on how to deal with gaming. The problem is that people will buy a cell phone before a handheld gaming device in many cases. Before, lots of people would also buy a gaming device (see DS's sales numbers over the past seven years).

 

[SmokyDave]

You're on a forum where the majority of its discussion revolves around games. I mean the kind that aren't 5 minute time wasters.

Oh, you mean PC games?

 

[jman2050]

Before, lots of people would also buy a gaming device (see DS's sales numbers over the past seven years).

What do you mean "before"? This was unequivocally true as recently as nine months ago. And I suspect after the 3DS's holiday sales it will continue to be true.

While I don't think Nintendo will drop out of the portable race, I think they will certainly have to think hard about what strategy they're going to use next time around. $40 first party titles? That was already ridiculous when it was the norm, but now with the cheaper iOS pricing structure they'll have to adapt. Again, I don't see them dropping out when they have such powerful IPs, but they can't just keep going in the same direction. They need another big change a la Wii or DS.

$40 first party games aren't the problem. They know that they can and will sell their own games for that price with no issues whatsoever.

Also the idea that Nintendo would need to change their strategy if their current one isn't working is obvious. No one (should) be arguing that. However, more often than not when I see someone say "Nintendo needs to change their strategy!" it's basically code for "Nintendo needs to adopt a smartphone gaming strategy!" which is not the same statement at all.

 

[hyp]

AppleTV is an extra $120.



You're on a forum where the majority of its discussion revolves around games. I mean the kind that aren't 5 minute time wasters.

<- goes back to playing junk jack. (a really awesome "fake game" that costed 2.99 and have spent more than 2 hours playing)

 

[XOMTOR]

so true. i love the bite sized, 99c nature of the games offered on the app store. i find i play way more new IPs and indie games on iOS than the games published by the big boys. if I want to play those type of games, I've got my PC and consoles. dedicated handheld "real games" can die a horrible death as far as I'm concerned.

I'd prefer to live in a world where both types of games are an option. I can't fathom the rationale of having less choice.

 

[jman2050]

I'd prefer to live in a world where both types of games are an option. I can't fathom the rationale of having less choice.

That's what fanboys do.

 

[Alexios]

<- goes back to playing junk jack.

If you have something worthwhile to say, say it. "I love it and I play Junk Jack" and whatever else doesn't qualify as an argument, or discussion of the topic. The thread isn't about what you love and your love and wishful thinking for it doesn't make the data in the OP and the resulting discussions any more true, or false.

 

[hyp]

I'd prefer to live in a world where both types of games are an option. I can't fathom the rationale of having less choice.

your ideal scenario will exist and you will have more choice. I'm just stating my opinion which is not a popular one gaf shares. people are just freaking out over nothing.

 

[rpmurphy]

I'd prefer to live in a world where both types of games are an option. I can't fathom the rationale of having less choice.

Some people feel something gurgle inside when products that they don't like or they don't use are successful.

 

[AbsoluteZero]

Some people feel something gurgle inside when products that they don't like or they don't use are successful.

Which certainly explains the massive rage towards Nintendo this generation, lol.

 

[Last Hearth]

Sure we'd all love more options, but economic realities means that certain options will eventually not be viable. I loved my Dreamcast and would have really liked the option of playing games on it but Sega pulled the plug because they couldn't make enough money to keep it going.

I do not believe dedicated hand-held devices that charges $30 per game will long survive in the market given the competition out there, I think the handwriting is on the wall and people just don't want to read it. Time will tell if I'm right.

 

[rpmurphy]

Which certainly explains the massive rage towards Nintendo this generation, lol.

Happens in a lot of places. See: discussion of Flash on OT.

 

[Alexios]

I do not believe dedicated hand-held devices that charges $30 per game will long survive in the market given the competition out there, I think the handwriting is on the wall and people just don't want to read it. Time will tell if I'm right.

How about telling us why you think so? The "handwriting" is on the wall? Humour us and show it to us, rather than just make a 50/50 random guess based on nothing in a manner that implies people are not to discuss it until 10-20 years from now that it will actually be proven if it came true or not.

 

[hyp]

How about telling us why you think so? The writing is on the wall? Show us, rather than just make a 50/50 random guess based on nothing.

why? you of all people should know that iOS/mobile gaming is the future, man! weren't you the one raving about how you've lost your life to real racing 2 HD?

 

[StevieP]

Oh, you mean PC games?

PC games have the spectrum to be playing both flash/FB time wasters, as well as your standard $100 million dollar blockbusters.

<- goes back to playing junk jack. (a really awesome "fake game" that costed 2.99 and have spent more than 2 hours playing)

Where did I say I didn't love my tiny "time waster" type games? I do. I own a (free) copy of Angry Birds on my smartphone and my tablet, too. But I also own dedicated consoles and handhelds. The multimillions it cost to make Xenoblade a 100+ hour game or to have high production values in general aren't sustainable on the race-to-the-bottom model, that's all I'm saying. That GTA port you may be enjoying is the result of said expensive development that required a full retail price and footprint.

 

[Alexios]

why? you of all people should know that iOS/mobile gaming is the future, man! weren't you the one raving about how you've lost your life to real racing 2 HD?

6 hours are my life? God damn is it shorter than I thought. And what does what I personally do have to do with the realities of the industry? You must have also missed my other posts where I said I wouldn't recommend the iPad2 for anyone who can't get one cheaply as I just make the best use of it I can since I got it for free from someone who bought it cheap during a trip to Thailand and how any gamer who likes what I spoke of would be better off investing in a racing wheel for his other platforms instead since the tilt controls are the main reason I'm enjoying it so much compared to racing games elsewhere as I never invested in a wheel which is far, far better and often cheaper for someone willing to invest an amount to get that kind of experience. But no, I have no irrational hate for it, it's a good yet normally overpriced and way too locked down device with some worthwhile software I too will seek, but that has nothing to do with the topic I was discussing there and in fact this whole thread.

 

[ThatCrazyGuy]

I hope vita/3ds don't die out. I love buttons and d-pads for control mechanisms. Touchscreen gaming is just different and not optimal for everything. I hope both survive.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

I wouldn't trade even one of the PSP/DS best games for the entirety of the iOS and Android library.

 

[hyp]

jesus christ I was joking with you, Alextended. 6 hours is a long life in iPad gaming time btw.

 

[googleplex]

Sure we'd all love more options, but economic realities means that certain options will eventually not be viable. I loved my Dreamcast and would have really liked the option of playing games on it but Sega pulled the plug because they couldn't make enough money to keep it going.

I do not believe dedicated hand-held devices that charges $30 per game will long survive in the market given the competition out there, I think the handwriting is on the wall and people just don't want to read it. Time will tell if I'm right.

I think a more likely and a far less shitty future is one, where dedicated handhelds(with actual controls), home consoles and tablets become one device.

 

[Marty Chinn]

You're missing my point, which is that you don't need a dedicated hand-held system/ to keep that ecosystem going. Instead of porting PSP games they can port PS2 and Xbox games, and in the future PS3 and 360 games, etc. Unless you think the home console market is dying, there will be no shortage of olders games they can port over to mobiles devices on the cheap.

But you're missing one huge factor here. Look at Scribblenauts. That is an original development title for the DS that was ported to iOS. If you start porting PS2 and Xbox games, you're just porting old games, not recent new games over. You're not going to port current console games over because of the huge disparity in hardware capability. So what you are losing out on is new original development of deeper and involved gaming by going this route. Handheld systems are not just ports of console games; they're original development. How do you not see that you'll lose that?

 

[rezuth]

Nintendo posted some charts in their last financial results briefing.

Great! Guess thats why Nintendo is making their first year loss in 20+ years.

 

[Marty Chinn]

If a business practice isn't sustainable then too fucking bad, it's not going to succeed. Welcome to capitalism.

(not sure if that's what you were getting at but that's what I got)

While I don't think Nintendo will drop out of the portable race, I think they will certainly have to think hard about what strategy they're going to use next time around. $40 first party titles? That was already ridiculous when it was the norm, but now with the cheaper iOS pricing structure they'll have to adapt. Again, I don't see them dropping out when they have such powerful IPs, but they can't just keep going in the same direction. They need another big change a la Wii or DS.

What I'm getting at is people want their cake and eat it too but don't realize at what expense it comes at. That's the bubble growing. The bubble popping is going to be a huge fall out from developers and consumers when the harsh reality sets in. The business practice was sustainable until Apple came along and gave it a big push. That push wasn't necessarily for the good of the industry or the consumer. It may look like it, but the long term effects aren't going to be great and in the end we all lose out because of it.

 

[Alexios]

Great! Guess thats why Nintendo is making their first year loss in 20+ years.

People have said why. If you want to ignore reality and just say Apple is why be my guest though.

 

[Last Hearth]

But you're missing one huge factor here. Look at Scribblenauts. That is an original development title for the DS that was ported to iOS. If you start porting PS2 and Xbox games, you're just porting old games, not recent new games over. You're not going to port current console games over because of the huge disparity in hardware capability. So what you are losing out on is new original development of deeper and involved gaming by going this route. Handheld systems are not just ports of console games; they're original development. How do you not see that you'll lose that?

I don't accept your assertion that a game like Scribblenauts couldn't have been developed for the iOs anyway even if there were no DS. Furthermore, all I see people being hyped about the Vita is "Uncharted!" or "GOW!". To me those games are glorified ports and add nothing original, if they can be excited about that they can be equally excited over playing a direct port of Uncharted.

 

[Alexios]

Yes because sequels with new content, stories and gameplay equal replaying a game you already own on another platform. So true. Are you reading what you're typing or are you way too far in that "to me" deal you stressed to ever acknowledge what's going on around your own little world?

 

[Codeblue]

I don't accept your assertion that a game like Scribblenauts couldn't have been developed for the iOs anyway even if there were no DS. Furthermore, all I see people being hyped about the Vita is "Uncharted!" or "GOW!". To me those games are glorified ports and add nothing original, if they can be excited about that they can be equally excited over playing a direct port of Uncharted.

This is some bizarre logic.

 

[jman2050]

Great! Guess thats why Nintendo is making their first year loss in 20+ years.

This is so strange, people have been talking about Nintendo potentially shooting themselves in the foot for years without it having been borne out, and then the one time when they actually do, everyone wants to blame the competition!

 

[AranhaHunter]

I think Sony sees the writing on the wall and that's the main reason they're buying Ericsson's shares on their JV. I expect a PSV phone SKU by 2013 and possibly a redesign of Vita to be slide out like that original leaked photo showed. They might keep the brick sku though for folks that want a bigger screen.

 

[dark10x]

I don't accept your assertion that a game like Scribblenauts couldn't have been developed for the iOs anyway even if there were no DS. Furthermore, all I see people being hyped about the Vita is "Uncharted!" or "GOW!". To me those games are glorified ports and add nothing original, if they can be excited about that they can be equally excited over playing a direct port of Uncharted.

Wait, what? Uncharted for Vita is a completely new game from a different development studio with an excellent track record. That is completely 100% different than a port of an old game.

Why would you even compare the two?!

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Nintendo posted some charts in their last financial results briefing.

I posted the first one already.

Nobody cared.

 

[Marty Chinn]

I don't accept your assertion that a game like Scribblenauts couldn't have been developed for the iOs anyway even if there were no DS. Furthermore, all I see people being hyped about the Vita is "Uncharted!" or "GOW!". To me those games are glorified ports and add nothing original, if they can be excited about that they can be equally excited over playing a direct port of Uncharted.

Have you played God of War on the PSP? It's a completely original title and not a port. Uncharted is an original title that fits within the storyline and not a port. Just because it uses a familiar IP doesn't mean it's not original content that isn't worth playing.

How is it any different on iOS where you have a bunch of glorified unknown ports? A lot of stuff is just rehash except you've never heard it before. I don't buy that somehow iOS is all original new fresh concepts when it comes to games but handhelds aren't.

Maybe if you understood the economics of game development you'd realize why it couldn't happen. The budget that it costs to make these types of games prevent it from being sold at 99 cents. Why can't you grasp that? You think games are priced at $30, $40, $60, etc all because of a huge profit margins and they could really be sold for $5 or less?

It is an unrealistic expectation to think you can get games of that calibre at iOS price points. That's the bottomline and anyone who thinks otherwise just doesn't understand game development at all.

 

[Game Guru]

Sure we'd all love more options, but economic realities means that certain options will eventually not be viable. I loved my Dreamcast and would have really liked the option of playing games on it but Sega pulled the plug because they couldn't make enough money to keep it going.

Yes, Sega did pull the plug on the Dreamcast, but then there were three other devices EXACTLY like it in the marketplace in its generation: The PS2, the Xbox, and the GameCube. A person could play games like Shenmue, Sonic Adventure, Crazy Taxi, and Skies of Arcadia just as well on any of those systems as they could on the Dreamcast. In fact, games in those series were brought to those systems, in some cases being ported from the Dreamcast.

 

[Last Hearth]

Wait, what? Uncharted for Vita is a completely new game from a different development studio with an excellent track record. That is completely 100% different than a port of an old game.

Why would you even compare the two?!

Same reason when Gameloft makes Modern Combat, people consider it a glorified port of Modern Warfare.

 

[StevieP]

I don't accept your assertion that a game like Scribblenauts couldn't have been developed for the iOs anyway even if there were no DS.

Accept it.

 

[Apenheul]

In my opinion it's just about different players emphasizing different values in games and not so much about platforms. People value a certain type of controls, visual fidelity, or a pricetag differently. I don't believe handhelds will go away because of mobile devices. Charts make it seem like iOS is completely taking over the game world, but those figures often include people that never bought handhelds in the first place and lots of dedicated handheld devices are still being sold.

 

[mrklaw]

You're missing my point, which is that you don't need a dedicated hand-held system/ to keep that ecosystem going. Instead of porting PSP games they can port PS2 and Xbox games, and in the future PS3 and 360 games, etc. Unless you think the home console market is dying, there will be no shortage of olders games they can port over to mobiles devices on the cheap.

The depressing thing is, you're right. There are enough games to shovel over to maintain the pretence of a business model for quite some time. Then by the time you run out of old shit to rehash, it'll be too late and dedicated handhelds will be dead

 

[rezuth]

People have said why. If you want to ignore reality and just say Apple is why be my guest though.

If you want a reason its that the idea and format is dying. If Apple contributed or not to that is not that relevant.

 

[dark10x]

Same reason when Gameloft makes Modern Combat, people consider it a glorified port of Modern Warfare.

That's...not the same thing at all. First of all, Gameloft very specifically and shamelessly rips off of every game developer under the sun. That's what they do. I don't have a problem with this specifically, but the products they produce are almost always sub-par. I would never consider them ports, rather, poor attempts at clones (which I believe is the case with most people). If Gameloft were responsible for the creation of Uncharted on Vita I would have little to no interest.

You can't make your point using Gameloft.

Sony Bend, the creators of Uncharted Vita, have a very strong track record producing games in series that have existed for a while. Resistance on PSP, for instance, was a new type of game that, in some ways, played even better than the original console titles on which it was based. It was not a low budget clone with poor gameplay, it was a full blown title with a solid story, great new gameplay mechanics, and excellent visuals. Their Siphon Filter titles before that were also excellent. Comparing them directly to the copy machine that is Gameloft is kind of an insult.

 

[BurntPork]

This is so strange, people have been talking about Nintendo potentially shooting themselves in the foot for years without it having been borne out, and then the one time when they actually do, everyone wants to blame the competition!

iFans just love to show their support of Apple monopolies!

 

[Cipherr]

I posted the first one already.

Nobody cared.

The data in the OP is ridiculous, out of context, misleading as hell, and not sourced. Upon deeper inspection its downright ridiculous, and the yen comment made by the site in the OP shows a very critical lack of common sense.

The charts were never meant to 'prove' anything. The sensationalist thread title, and bullshit 'stats' were just a means to get this retreaded dead horse of a smartphone gaming circle jerk started again on a board that was so over run with it a month ago, that it had to be corralled into a garbage thread.

Any actual data we look at seems to suggest that both of these markets may very well co-exist quite nicely. Its the inner fanboy in people that want to try and twist it so that one side has to rule all, and that there is no room for both. Getting real close to Christmas, and the Vita launch. Lets just get all the bullshit out of the way now, once the handhelds start moving more and more software and hardware these guys will do us a favor and disappear back into the iPhone OT's.

 

[mrklaw]

No, because they are completely different markets. Playing on the big screen on your couch at home is a completely different experience from playing on the train on your way to work/school. That's like saying being able to watch movies on your iPhone/iPad is going to kill the big screen TV market.

You're assuming that because the device is portable, people only play out and about? That's naive.