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[Squirrel Killer]

cynicism explosion

Truer words were ne'er spoken.

I don't get how everyone seems to be saying that Gruco's post is awesome except perhaps as an example of tight writing. That level of cynicism is caustic.

Tomorrow, a minority of people from the fine state of Iowa, itself a small, unrepresentative state, will go and vote. After having forced the candidates to spend a ridiculous amount of time campaigning in their state (instead of, you know, governing, legislating, etc) and pretending that their parochial interests are far more import than they actually are, these people will exercise a hugely disproportionate influence on the process. It’s not really clear why this is the case, but one has to assume it’s because people from Iowa are really fucking awesome. Or something.

So as an Iowan, I guess I better defend my state.

First, while it's ranked 30th, that means there are 20 states that are smaller. It's really only small compared to the biggest 8-9 states, and while there are several states that are count their blessings to have even one Congressional representative, Iowa has a sure lock on five for some time to come. Let's call it on the small side of average.

Second, it's more representative than people think. In the last seven presidential elections, it tracked with the national popular vote six times, going narrowly for Gore in '00 and narrowly for Bush in '04. (For some reason, we liked Dukakis in '88.) Also, while everyone stereotypes it as a farm state (which it is), it is still over 60% urban.

Third, forcing candidates to campaign is a good thing.

Fourth, the disproportionate influence is over-blown. As I've mentioned before, the Iowa winner has only won the nomination six out of twelve times. While that sounds pretty good, the fact of the matter is that most nominations are really only between 2-3 people. The only people who drop out because they lost in Iowa are those who didn't have the support nationally to continue (i.e. the people who didn't have a chance anyway.) Counter-intuitively, I think one way to decrease Iowa's influence is to slow down the nomination process, this front-loaded process forces a massively expensive national campaign and no recovery time. For example, Dean could have come back from the scream if he had a little more time to get back on message.

Finally, why Iowa? Why not? It's cheap to campaign in, voters are educated and active, it tracks with national preferences, and both parties are competitive. That's a combination that's hard to beat.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

It's too late to fight it probably. If you realized this a week ago maybe you could do something. But the day of the election? You'll probably just have to suck it up and dry again next time.

Fight for temp chair? Yeah, that ship sailed long ago. But suck it up? Nah, I can still get perm chair. The question is, do I want to?

national primary. every state, every precinct, all at the same time.

Do you have any idea how expensive that would be? Let me put it this way, there is no way in this green earth that Bill Clinton becomes president in that scenario, and it almost ensures a George W. Bush presidency.

 

[Souldriver]

Do you have any idea how expensive that would be? Let me put it this way, there is no way in this green earth that Bill Clinton becomes president in that scenario, and it almost ensures a George W. Bush presidency.

Why?

Why?

(Genuine question)

 

[Cheebs]

Why?

Why?

(Genuine question)

Bill Clinton was an unknown going into the early primaries. Suprise third place finish in NH (No one campaigned in Iowa that year since the senator of Iowa was running for president) got him noticed in '92. In a full on national primary we would never have seen Bill win.

 

[Mandark]

Because national campaigns cost a ton of money. In the current system, a candidate can establish themselves as legit contenders by good showings in the early states, then build from there.

A national primary would raise the financial bar pretty high, so people like Bush, who had the party infrastructure behind them, would be almost guaranteed a victory. McCain was only able to make noise in 2000 because of the NH upset.

That's the argument, anyway. I'd rather go national primary with instant-runoff voting.

Also, scrap the Senate while I'm at it. Old and busted.

 

[Fragamemnon]

My beef with Iowa isn't really that it isn't representative, it's that the way the caucuses, specifically the Democratic one, work are just horrible. I'll let wikipedia do my work for me, since the day-quil is really laying into me right now:

Participants indicate their support for a particular candidate by standing in a designated area of the caucus site (forming a "preference group"). An area may also be designated for undecided participants. Then, for roughly 30 minutes, participants try to convince their neighbors to support their candidates. Each preference group might informally deputize a few members to recruit supporters from the other groups and, in particular, from among those undecided. Undecided participants might visit each preference group to ask its members about their candidate.

After 30 minutes, the electioneering is temporarily halted and the supporters for each candidate are counted. At this point, the caucus officials determine which candidates are "viable". Depending on the number of county delegates to be elected, the "viability threshold" can be anywhere from 15% to 25% of attendees. For a candidate to receive any delegates from a particular precinct, he or she must have the support of at least the percentage of participants required by the viability threshold. Once viability is determined, participants have roughly another 30 minutes to "realign": the supporters of inviable candidates may find a viable candidate to support, join together with supporters of another inviable candidate to secure a delegate for one of the two, or choose to abstain. This "realignment" is a crucial distinction of caucuses in that (unlike a primary) being a voter's "second candidate of choice" can help a candidate.

When the voting is closed, a final head count is conducted, and each precinct apportions delegates to the county convention. These numbers are reported to the state party, which counts the total number of delegates for each candidate and reports the results to the media. Most of the participants go home, leaving a few to finish the business of the caucus: each preference group elects its delegates, and then the groups reconvene to elect local party officers and discuss the platform.

Peer pressure by neighbors and no secret balloting. Oh, and it takes hours on end and absentee balloting is barred, so turnout is always extremely low-if you are an Iowa Demoacrat trapped by Dear Leader's adventures in the shifting sands, then you get no say in who you want to be your party's next candidate for President. What a shitty, shitty system.

Don't blame Iowa for this IMO-the Iowa Democratic Party in Iowa owns a large share of the culpability for this travesty of democracy.

 

[Fragamemnon]

All we really need is a set of primaries tightly packed (say, five weeks of primaries starting in middle of January) together with each primary date having a diverse "basket" of representative states voting, and the set rotates each year to allow different states variable primacy over the others.

For example, Group 1 could be New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire, Florida, Wyoming, Virginia, Delaware and Louisana. Group 2 could be Washington, Nebraska, Texas, Mississippi, Utah, Vermont, South Carolina, and Alaska. And so on. The groups stay the same and rotate out of the top spots and bottom slots each cycle.

 

[thefro]

You know what my main concern is. Which one of the two (Obama or Hillary) has the best chance of winning against whoever get the republican nomination? I think my views aline best with Obama's, but I kind of support Hillary cause I have the idea she'll do better in the presidential election.

Anybody got an idea about this?

Most polls show Obama doing better and him having much lower negatives. I don't think he has any skeletons in his closet that could drive them up a bunch either... he seems like a pretty genuine person so he'll just get the "TOO LIBERAL/RAISES TAXES/FUNNY NAME" stuff.

On the other hand, it's pretty unlikely anyone can get Hillary's negatives any higher since pretty much everyone has an opinion on her already.

national primary. every state, every precinct, all at the same time.

The big problem with that is you get the establishment/richest candidate winning every time. There's no chance for an upset and people just fly into airports for photo-ops. Nobody has to get asked tough questions by voters. Retail politics are really important.

I'd pick 6 congressional districts at random (either from the whole country or a set of six that border each other) to go first, and gradually have more and more go over a period of a few months. That'd give an Iowa-sized population area going first every time that'd be fair to everyone, and would be more representative of the country.

 

[JayDubya]

Good idea

*thumbs up*

 

[Mandark]

That rotation noise is just disenfranchising different people each cycle.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Don't blame Iowa for this IMO-the Iowa Democratic Party in Iowa owns a large share of the culpability for this travesty of democracy.

People keep thinking of the caucus as an election. It's not. That doesn't make it a travesty of democracy, it's just a different form, like town hall meetings.

Why?

Why?

(Genuine question)

Cheebs nailed it. Before exceeding expectations in the early primaries, Clinton was an obscure governor from a small Southern state who had polled well early but faded.

 

[Fragamemnon]

That rotation noise is just disenfranchising different people each cycle.

I'd be up for a national primary if there was some means of controlling how much money gets dumped into the primary process. Of course, there is a whole host of valid free speech issues to tackle before we can get there.

I realize that the argument exists that the general election doesn't have any restrictions on money either and it "works", but I think the degree of difference in terms of absolute fundrasing capacity between the primary and general elections warrant a proper distinction of the two.

 

[Mandark]

Yeah, I wouldn't mind presidential campaigns being publicly funded over the last couple months or what have you.

Course, I wouldn't mind scrapping the entire system and going parliamentary, at that.

 

[Incognito]

Wow, that Zogby tracking poll sure is good news for Obama. It's not that unreliable piece of shit internet poll, either.

 

[thekad]

I'm sort of warming to Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee now, you know, for the lolz. Of course that could backfire and by some bizarre mishap he could become our next President.

But still it would be funny.

 

[HawkeyeIC]

I thought Edwards was going to win in IA until the last two days. Obama getting support from Richardson's voters where Richardson isn't viable is HUGE. It will be interesting to see how far this carries Obama in N.H.

http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1782

Huckabee pulls it out on the Republican side in IA. McCain gets 3rd and then wins in N.H. and that carries him to the nomination.

 

[Fragamemnon]

People keep thinking of the caucus as an election. It's not. That doesn't make it a travesty of democracy, it's just a different form, like town hall meetings.

I find lack of secret balloting and no mechanism for representation of deployed servicemen or working people with offshifts revolting and an affront to modern democratic voting procedures. It's sounds like a country club meeting than a town hall meeting.

Course, I wouldn't mind scrapping the entire system and going parliamentary, at that.

I'd be totally down with that-even running the risk of a Belgian-style regionalism clusterfuck, it would be so much better, especially if we bit the bullet and bumped up the number of members of the House of Representatives to a more reasonable number.

 

[thekad]

I find lack of secret balloting and no mechanism for representation of deployed servicemen or working people with offshifts revolting and an affront to modern democratic voting procedures. It's sounds like a country club meeting than a town hall meeting.

Heck, I'd wish we found out everyone who voted for Bush.

 

[deadbeef]

Clinton and Romney, both by a nose

 

[scorcho]

Yeah, I wouldn't mind presidential campaigns being publicly funded over the last couple months or what have you.

Course, I wouldn't mind scrapping the entire system and going parliamentary, at that.

you are a man after my own heart.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I find lack of secret balloting and no mechanism for representation of deployed servicemen or working people with offshifts revolting and an affront to modern democratic voting procedures. It's sounds like a country club meeting than a town hall meeting.

So you find Congress revolting?

Although secret ballots are no more a requirement of a democratic process than whichever type of ballot machine is used, I have to say again, it's not an election, it a process for the party to determine their direction. Discussion and persuasion are natural parts of that process. Candidate nominations are only one part of that process, there's also delegate selection and party platform issues that are taken care of. Just because it doesn't conform to your one interpretation of "democratic" doesn't mean that it isn't.

I will say this though, while I haven't been in many country clubs, the caucus process sounds about as far from one of their meetings as I can imagine.

 

[scorcho]

it has the same effect as an election, which leaves it completely open to criticism.

 

[Tobor]

I'm sort of warming to Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee now, you know, for the lolz. Of course that could backfire and by some bizarre mishap he could become our next President.

But still it would be funny.

This scenario scares the living shit out of me.

 

[Incognito]

Under no scenario does Mike Huckabee become our next president. Well, I shouldn't be sure. This is the Democratic party we're talking about and this is a presidential election. Anything is possible...

 

[Mandark]

So you find Congress revolting?

Bad comparison.

The principle behind a secret ballot is to protect voters from the fear of eventual reprisal. So that they don't worry about their boss, landlord, what-have-you punishing them for supporting the "wrong" candidate.

By contrast, a representative government depends on the politicians fearing reprisal, in the form of losing votes. It's just as important for their legislative record to be transparent as it is for citizens' voting records to be confidential.

The Australian ballot hasn't been so widely adopted by accident.

It may qualify as democracy, but that's no shield against legitimate criticism of its flaws.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

it has the same effect as an election, which leaves it completely open to criticism.

Yeah, but saying, "it doesn't follow the same procedure as an election!" is a bit of a hallow criticism when it's not an election but something else. The parties decided against a primary election in favor of caucuses for a variety of reasons, and they decided those reasons were more important than secret ballots or absentee ballots.

It may qualify as democracy, but that's no shield against legitimate criticism of its flaws.

I'm not saying it doesn't have flaws, I'm saying it has advantages.

 

[Fragamemnon]

So you find Congress revolting?

Congress doesn't have secret balloting for a reason-it allows the people to hold their representatives accountable for their record.

As for deliberation and peer persuasion, that is very much a part of electioneering and I'm all for it when it has its place. I don't think it's healthy to have it as part of the actual "voting" mechanism-it would be far better if the Iowa Democratic Caucus process would let the final votes be recorded by secret ballot.

 

[ToxicAdam]

I thought conventional wisdom said that Hillary had no chance in Iowa?

 

[eznark]

This scenario scares the living shit out of me.

If Mike Huckabee wins Iowa it will solidify the GOP elsewhere behind a single candidate (probably Romney) so it seems damn near impossible for him to do anything beyond Iowa.

But if Hillary wins the Dem nomination, Huckabee could probably stand a chance. Christ, either of those two are God awful.

 

[scorcho]

I thought conventional wisdom said that Hillary had no chance in Iowa?

who said that besides other Dem campaigns?

 

[Mandark]

I thought conventional wisdom said that Hillary had no chance in Iowa?

I don't know what you're talking about. She's led a bunch of polls there.

 

[AlternativeUlster]

I am predicting an Obama / Paul win because I am an American and I like to dream.

 

[McFly]

Everyone that votes for Huckabee should get their voting rights removed or even better, they should be moved into a very deep hole, labeled hell for some extra laughter, with no way out, removing them from evolution. Sadly I think that hole would be pretty damn huge.

 

[Incognito]

I thought conventional wisdom said that Hillary had no chance in Iowa?

Wha? :lol

Her and Edwards led practically the whole summer. Now she's trotting out the "back when we were in single digits no one thought we had a chance" claptrap. It's garbage and frankly, offensive. She thought she could bring her vaunted machine and her starpower within the Democratic party to Iowa and that would instantly propel her towards victory. Oh how times change... and memories.

Stolen from a diarist at dkos:

[/IMG]

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I don't think it's healthy to have it as part of the actual "voting" mechanism-it would be far better if the Iowa Democratic Caucus process would let the final votes be recorded by secret ballot.

Why?

Maybe your goals and the goals of the state parties aren't the same. The Democratic Party didn't just stumble upon their horribly convoluted set of rules on accident, they chose them. It's public for a reason. They don't care who each individual wants to see nominated, they want to determine which candidate can get the party as a whole to rally behind them.

 

[Thomper]

Seems that we, the rest of the world, are so interested in the American elections that a University here in the Netherlands, the 'Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam', has created both an English and a Dutch version of the Electoral Compass for your elections. Basically, you answer some questions, and it shows you which candidates match up most with your opinion. I was closest to Obama and Edwards.

http://extra.volkskrant.nl/kieskompas/

 

[Frank the Great]

Everyone that votes for Huckabee should get their voting rights removed or even better, they should be moved into a very deep hole, labeled hell for some extra laughter, with no way out, removing them from evolution. Sadly I think that hole would be pretty damn huge.

yeah, fuck democracy

 

[Dilbert]

Ugh, compulsory voting in any form is a bad idea. If you're too lazy to research candidates and get off your ass and vote then you don't deserve to have a say in this government.

The problem is with people who are too lazy to research candidates -- and issues and facts, for that matter -- and STILL get off their asses to vote.

You need to pass a test to get a driver's license, but we don't screen people for the most important things they do in society: have children and vote.

(Yeah, I'm feeling even more cynical than Gruco.)

Also, re: the caucus system and why it isn't even close to being a primary, read this.

 

[mckmas8808]

Everyone that votes for Huckabee should get their voting rights removed or even better, they should be moved into a very deep hole, labeled hell for some extra laughter, with no way out, removing them from evolution. Sadly I think that hole would be pretty damn huge.

Why?

 

[ToxicAdam]

I don't know what you're talking about. She's led a bunch of polls there.

I'll be honest, I haven't followed the Iowa race, because I feel it is largely irrelevant. But, just skimming the Drudge Report I would always see headlines about how Hillary had given up in Iowa .. or had trouble finding supporters .. etc etc. It was probably just all spin, I guess.

 

[mckmas8808]

The problem is with people who are too lazy to research candidates -- and issues and facts, for that matter -- and STILL get off their asses to vote.

You need to pass a test to get a driver's license, but we don't screen people for the most important things they do in society: have children and vote.

(Yeah, I'm feeling even more cynical than Gruco.)

Also, re: the caucus system and why it isn't even close to being a primary, read this.

You have a right to vote, but not to drive.

 

[eznark]

Everyone that votes for Huckabee should get their voting rights removed or even better, they should be moved into a very deep hole, labeled hell for some extra laughter, with no way out, removing them from evolution. Sadly I think that hole would be pretty damn huge.

Democracy at it's finest

 

[Mandark]

The problem is with people who are too lazy to research candidates -- and issues and facts, for that matter -- and STILL get off their asses to vote.

I'll go one further and say that the political junkies aren't necessarily better informed. They tend to just reinforce their own biases.

Academic studies which I am too lazy to track down totally back me up on this.

 

[HawkeyeIC]

If Mike Huckabee wins Iowa it will solidify the GOP elsewhere behind a single candidate (probably Romney) so it seems damn near impossible for him to do anything beyond Iowa.

If Huckabee wins IA, he will place 3rd in N.H. (McCain will win), and win in S.C. Huckabee then needs to win in Florida (and raise crazy amounts of $) or else the nomination is McCain's.

But if Hillary wins the Dem nomination, Huckabee could probably stand a chance. Christ, either of those two are God awful.

If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, we will have another Republican in the WH for 4 years.

 

[McFly]

Why?

http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/000854.htm

1. Huckabee Calls for the Quarantine of AIDS Victims

2. Huckabee Enables the Politically-Motivated Parole of Repeat Rapist/Murderer

3. Huckabee Offers Faith-Based Pardons

4. Huckabee Undermines the Teaching of Evolution

5. Huckabee Speaks for God

6. Huckabee Speaks to God

7. Huckabee Claims God Behind His Rise in the Polls

8. Huckabee Proclaims His Theology Degree a Unique Qualification to Fight Terrorism

9. Huckabee Flip-Flops, Calls for Federal Abortion Ban

10. Huckabee Calls for Consumption Tax, Abolition of the IRS

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/01/huckabee-britney-iran/

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/02/huckabee-bloggers/

...

 

[ElectricBlue187]

You need to pass a test to get a driver's license, but we don't screen people for the most important things they do in society: have children and vote.

how deliciously fascist

 

[eznark]

If Huckabee wins IA, he will place 3rd in N.H. (McCain will win), and win in S.C. Huckabee then needs to win in Florida (and raise crazy amounts of $) or else the nomination is McCain's.



If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, we will have another Republican in the WH for 4 years.

I don't see Romney not winning NH. And i McCain win the GOP nomination there will be a democrat in the white house no matter who wins.

 

[Souldriver]

Since when did Romney become such a big candidate? And Guilliani is no were to be seen. Is this just the situation in Iowa, or has Romney risen like Huckabee has the past weeks nationwide? (Or was he always that big and I've never noticed it).

 

[eznark]

http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/000854.htm



http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/01/huckabee-britney-iran/

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/02/huckabee-bloggers/

...

Only McFly approved candidates may be voted for, by edict of McFly. Sounds like America to me.

 

[Tobor]

If Mike Huckabee wins Iowa it will solidify the GOP elsewhere behind a single candidate (probably Romney) so it seems damn near impossible for him to do anything beyond Iowa.

But if Hillary wins the Dem nomination, Huckabee could probably stand a chance. Christ, either of those two are God awful.

Hilary vs. Huckabee would seriously ring in the end of times. The sky would split open, evil would roam the Earth, all that jazz.

My problem with Huckabee is, on the surface, he should have no chance in a million.

But we elected Bush. Twice.