Alright, you want my prediction? here's my prediction:
Tomorrow, a minority of people from the fine state of Iowa, itself a small, unrepresentative state, will go and vote. After having forced the candidates to spend a ridiculous amount of time campaigning in their state (instead of, you know, governing, legislating, etc) and pretending that their parochial interests are far more import than they actually are, these people will exercise a hugely disproportionate influence on the process. Its not really clear why this is the case, but one has to assume its because people from Iowa are really fucking awesome. Or something.
The Democrat will either win because we recognize her last name (howd that turn out last time, America?) or because he makes really pretty speeches about unity.
The Republican will either win because he has a lot of money, because he was mayor of a city that got attacked by terrorists, or because hes an unknown governor from a small state with previously unknown public profile.
Whoever it is, well be blessed with a ton of stories about how they positioned themselves, about how their personal background helped them win, and about how theyre set up for the rest of the horse race. We might get a couple about what positions theyve taken, but almost none of these will be a reasonable, intelligent analysis (that is, more horse race implications!)
Cokie Roberts will probably lead the charge, and some DC schmuck who takes the Metro in to work at 10:00 because he has a sweet government contract and doesnt need to work very hard might even listen and, if hes dumb enough, find it interesting.
Regardless, whoever wins will have an enormous advantage. Maybe the subsequent states will decide to think for themselves, more likely theyll just play along, but either way politicians will be running around, kissing ass, and spending ridiculous amounts of money to look and act like a robot in order to convince people that theyre a leader.
Then people drop out, then somebody wins, and thats when the fun starts.
Thats when we get the months of the gotchas, the Wolf Blitzer special on historical debate faux pas, countless stories on he said this, no I didnt, well I didnt mean it that was in 1893 anyways, fuck you. While were running this very important, very interesting news segment, nobody will take the motherfucking time to look through the countless academic studies that might have been published on a subject, or to make a note of facts tending to tip the scales in one direction or another. After all, we dont want to alienate people, and its so much easier to say well, on the one hand followed by but on the other! and then shrug and go back to checking your hair and your perfect news man voice.
So anyways, we put up with this shit for months, and some people get really passionate about it and even yell at each other. Nobody talks about social security because they dont want to piss off the old people who nothing to do with their free time but vote. Nobody talks about cutting the military budget because they dont want to look like a pussy. Yet they still insist that we can all get puppies and rainbows. And then somebody wins, and if were really lucky, its because a majority of Americans wanted them to.
So the new guy takes the office, and his supporters are really optimistic about everything he can accomplish. This lasts for approximately one day. Soon enough, the rabid parochial nature of the congress will turn the plan for comprehensive energy reform (if it even existed) into the Free money for people who grow corn bill. The education and health care bills probably barely get off the ground. But thats not such a bad deal, because lets be honest if somebody had education and health care reform plans and actually won, they were probably pretty stupid plans anyways.
So maybe we leave Iraq, maybe we dont. Either way, we sure as fuck arent investing in development in Africa. And by virtue of not running any stories about the federal budget, people tend to think we already spend 60% of federal revenues feeding starving children or some other hippie ass shit.
So maybe terrorists find a new base. Or Pakistan blows up. Or robots conquer the earth. Or glaciers melt the fuck out all over everything. Either way, all that exciting ("exciting") domestic reform has to get put to the side for a while, everything goes to hell, lather, rinse, repeat.
So, I guess what I am saying is, I disagree. This is not politics at its best.
Yeah, sorry about that. I think everything that Ive bottled up since I was old enough to vote just broke out.