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Is the Wii phenomenon over?

Regulus Tera

Romanes Eunt Domus
Vinci said:
I think Nintendo, rather foolishly, thought M+ would correct one of the prevailing issues that developers and gamers had brought up regarding the Wiimote and, thus, would get more interest from developers than it did. In essence, I agree with you.

I'm not saying Nintendo shouldn't try to lure third parties in, but when it was obvious they weren't interested Nintendo should have pushed the peripheral fully. Now the Wiimote is at risk of being rendered obsolete in the market's eyes against Kinect.
 
Atomski said:
Also I would not be surprised if Nintendo is pushing all its efforts on the 3DS. I feel like in Japan handhelds are slowly replacing consoles so it would not surprise me if it gets way more attention game wise.
I think it's much different actually. The market for a hardcore gaming device like the 3DS will rapidly decline in favor of experiences found on Android/iPhone handhelds. You have to remember the majority of casual gamers that jumped into the Nintendo DS now have a better and more robust library of $2 iPhone games. I'd be surprised if the 3DS does even half the numbers of the DS.
 
evilromero said:
I think it's much different actually. The market for a hardcore gaming device like the 3DS will rapidly decline in favor of experiences found on Android/iPhone handhelds. You have to remember the majority of casual gamers that jumped into the Nintendo DS now have a better and more robust library of $2 iPhone games. I'd be surprised if the 3DS does even half the numbers of the DS.
Despite the iPhone, the DS is still a top selling gaming platform every single month. Nobody is moving on to anything, the two devices can exist together just fine, and are currently.
 

farnham

Banned
evilromero said:
I think it's much different actually. The market for a hardcore gaming device like the 3DS will rapidly decline in favor of experiences found on Android/iPhone handhelds. You have to remember the majority of casual gamers that jumped into the Nintendo DS now have a better and more robust library of $2 iPhone games. I'd be surprised if the 3DS does even half the numbers of the DS.
doubt it. the iOS devices dont have the right interface for many games. and the 3DS will also have smaller downloadable titles for cheap. also people are not buying the iOS devices to play games. they are buying it as a phone, mp3player, internet device etc etc.
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Let's have a look back in time

NES- No blood, no crosses. Every game must adhere to a strict code and must be appropriate for all ages!

Genesis- Sega does what Nintendon't. Mario is a kiddy baby, and Sonic is too cool for school. Genesis has the xtreme games the nineties kid adores.

PSX- Nintendo is for kids, look at this crazy high quality music and videos! That's HARDCORE, not crappy compressed textures and videos of the N64. Also, we have Square's games!

Xbox/PS2- The GCN is for kiddies. Look at this mature content found on these two systems. Nintendo has no third party support, but we do!


I'm not entirely sure what their image is to you, but they've always been the family friendly, casual gamer system.
haha well, that does put things into perspective i guess

still, you're only taking into account nintendo's image with gamers. what about their reputation of screwing with third parties during the n64 days? that's what really screwed up the n64's third party support. and then with the gamecube they managed to recover some of it, though they couldn't keep it due to the crappy sales

with the wii they had the sales, so all they needed was to go after the third party support. instead they gave them the middle finger
 

farnham

Banned
Green Biker Dude said:
haha well, that does put things into perspective i guess

still, you're only taking into account nintendo's image with gamers. what about their reputation of screwing with third parties during the n64 days? that's what really screwed up the n64's third party support. and then with the gamecube they managed to recover some of it, though they couldn't keep it due to the crappy sales

with the wii they had the sales, so all they needed was to go after the third party support. instead, they gave them the middle finger
or maybe the third parties gave nintendo the middle finger ?
 
farnham said:
doubt it. the iOS devices dont have the right interface for many games. and the 3DS will also have smaller downloadable titles for cheap. also people are not buying the iOS devices to play games. they are buying it as a phone, mp3player, internet device etc etc.
People don't care about interface all the much. You have to remember games like Angry Birds are the top sellers and that only requires one button. The general gaming population will just want games as a distraction, maybe while they're waiting for something or in the bathroom. From my perspective I'd much rather play OoT 3D or Kid Icarus Rising on a bigass TV, rather than cramped for hours on a little handheld.
 
Green Biker Dude said:
haha well, that does put things into perspective i guess

still, you're only taking into account nintendo's image with gamers. what about their reputation of screwing with third parties during the n64 days? that's what really screwed up the n64's third party support. and then with the gamecube they managed to recover some of it, though they couldn't keep it due to the crappy sales

with the wii they had the sales, so all they needed was to go after the third party support. instead, they gave them the middle finger
The reason they all left around the N64 time, is because Sony provided them with an outlet that was cheaper and more cutting edge. They were tired of the tyranical rule Nintendo had over them for 2 generations, and found a nicer way out than supporting the Genesis.

The loss of Square is what set other third parties up to leave. After being burned by Nintendo's ridiculous rules, they saw creative freedom in the PSX. Also the N64 was not lining up to sell well, and was very expensive to make games for. This was a change from the raging success of the SNES, versus the Genesis.

evilromero said:
People don't care about interface all the much. You have to remember games like Angry Birds are the top sellers and that only requires one button. The general gaming population will just want games as a distraction, maybe while they're waiting for something or in the bathroom. From my perspective I'd much rather play OoT 3D or Kid Icarus Rising on a bigass TV, rather than cramped for hours on a little handheld.
I don't see Dragon Quest, Pokemon or Monster Hunter working well as a 2 dollar game on the iPhone, and those three series basically drove handhelds this generation (along with other Nintendo franchises)
 

Brera

Banned
Quite clearly the Wii is nearing the end of the line.

The casual market will always be there but were never big buyers of games as can be seen by third party sales where great games died a death in the sales charts.

Wii Music was the first sign, and since then, it's looking like more of the same to come.

That said, I'm excited by DKR and other games being used to woo the hardcore/mainstream gamers, but they really should have woo'd the casuals and hardcore at the same time, much like Sony did with the PSX.
 
Green Biker Dude said:
with the wii they had the sales, so all they needed was to go after the third party support. instead they gave them the middle finger

Really? You could certainly argue that they didn't go as far as Sony or MS in terms of incentives, but they certainly seem to have been far more open to collaborations and marketing deals than they were in the GC days.

"Not doing quite enough" is not the same as "giving them the finger".

evilromero said:
People don't care about interface all the much. You have to remember games like Angry Birds are the top sellers and that only requires one button. The general gaming population will just want games as a distraction, maybe while they're waiting for something or in the bathroom. From my perspective I'd much rather play OoT 3D or Kid Icarus Rising on a bigass TV, rather than cramped for hours on a little handheld.

Is that the same general gaming population that has been buying the DS in record numbers, and spending $30 a pop on games?
 

Vinci

Danish
Regulus Tera said:
I'm not saying Nintendo shouldn't try to lure third parties in, but when it was obvious they weren't interested Nintendo should have pushed the peripheral fully. Now the Wiimote is at risk of being rendered obsolete in the market's eyes against Kinect.

The Wiimote was always going to be rendered obsolete. It's called technology. M+ was a relatively inexpensive way to attempt to fend off a massive amount of money and engineering being thrown at it. That's all.

M+, or its lack of use, isn't the reason the Wii is slowing down - it's slowing down because Nintendo isn't bringing out as innovative of software for it while the others are getting the new tech novelty bonus from coming out now. [This is less true of Sony, obviously; MS will score a lot more sales from their solution.] Doesn't matter if that software used the M+ or not. Nintendo simply ran out of ideas for the system. And it would honestly be stupid of them to put whatever Wii Relax is meant to be on it when they could use that as another feature on their next system.

I mean, hell, the system is still selling PS2 numbers; it's in 1/3rd of all households in America. What more do you guys want from it?

If there's one area that Nintendo 100% fucked up on it was not supporting the smaller 3rd parties that actually were trying to bring out quality, interesting software for the thing. They should have babysat the hell out of those guys.
 
Green Biker Dude said:
haha well, that does put things into perspective i guess

still, you're only taking into account nintendo's image with gamers. what about their reputation of screwing with third parties during the n64 days? that's what really screwed up the n64's third party support. and then with the gamecube they managed to recover some of it, though they couldn't keep it due to the crappy sales

with the wii they had the sales, so all they needed was to go after the third party support. instead, they gave them the middle finger

it was more like 3 parties gave Nintendo the middle finger by
a) releasing 99% absolut shit on wii
b) not even considering to advertise said shit
c) blaming Nintendo then for lack of sales

edit: beaten (sort of)
 
I don't think the Wiimote is going to be rendered obsolete by the Kinect. That's like saying the iPod is obsolete because the Zune HD came out and is selling well at launch!

That shit has been out for less than a month. Of course you might think it's the biggest thing on the planet; Microsoft is spending $500 million to make sure you see it goddamn EVERYWHERE.

That's why when you go to Burger King, it's Kinect ads and giveaways. That's why most videogame commercials on TV this month (and likely next month too) are ads for Kinect (and Call of Duty and Assassin's Creed). I'm imagining there's probably been - or going to be - product placement for it in popular and not-so-popular TV shows, too. Don't be fooled, though - the real test is going to be in 6 months, when Kinect has been out and is an "old" device.

It's cool to buy now because everything from your TV to your cheeseburgers says it's the coolest thing out. Will it matter when that $500m runs out, and it's not in your face every minute/hour/day?

The Wiimote is the standard. It's the standard, as a function of more than 70M consoles sold, and countless Wiimotes sold. It's why the the Move is a pointer, too. It's why all those little shitty $19.99 knockoff TV motion games are designed to resemble Wiis and Wiimotes. It's the standard because the lead console established it. Let's wait for that to change before we decide on obsolescence.
 
Cosmonaut X said:
Really? You could certainly argue that they didn't go as far as Sony or MS in terms of incentives, but they certainly seem to have been far more open to collaborations and marketing deals than they were in the GC days.

"Not doing quite enough" is not the same as "giving them the finger".
yeah, you're right. they didn't do enough as opposed to outright getting in the way
 

turnbuckle

Member
captmcblack said:
All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
The signs of the Wii fading at a pretty substantial rate were around over a year ago, especially outside of North America. And how did you get a Wii 4.5 years ago? And regardless what a typical generation has historically been, a generation is defined by itself...and all indication is that this has been expected to be, and will turn out to be, longer than a typical generation.

- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
I'm not a fan of motion controls so that bothers me in general, but are you saying adapting to what the market responds favorably to is a bad thing? Is it a hollow victory for you when the Yankees win by desperately copying what's worked for other teams (by paying more to acquire those players than what most teams are willing to do?)
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
That's pretty much been the case for Nintendo since the N64 era, and it's not a coincidence that since that time Nintendo has tended to put out home consoles that bucked the trend the rest of the industry was moving in (cartridges, gd roms, standard resolution, technical bottlenecks, hackneyed online support, etc). Sure, 3rd party efforts have been pretty pathetic on the whole, but Nintendo's got plenty of money they could use to court more adequate support. There's no law saying 3rd parties have to put their A teams on the Wii, and supporting the 360/PS3/PC has been moderately successful.

- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
Too many, but it's not as if developing on the Wii is some guarantee of success either. Plenty of companies went kaput in preceding generations too.
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
I wish the generation would end soon myself, but it's in developer's best interests to have this one continue as long as possible. How many more third parties need to go bankrupt or suffer spectacular layoffs?
- have the global economy meltdown
Wouldn't the Wii, generally being the lower cost alternative, actually benefit from this relative to its HD competitors?

All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).
Well, I guess the HD twins won!

Why declare a winner now? The generation is still going. What the Wii managed to do for its first 2-3 years was historic. Unfortunately that means they're held to a higher expectation through the end lest they be considered a fad relative to #1 consoles of generations past. A fad like My[____] which was relevant for a couple of years, not a fad like the the 2006 Detroit Tigers. And who knows, a price drop may invigorate sales and the HD twins split focus on traditional and motion games may stunt their appeal to non-casuals.
 

Vinci

Danish
captmcblack said:
I don't think the Wiimote is going to be rendered obsolete by the Kinect. That's like saying the iPod is obsolete because the Zune HD came out and is selling well at launch!

Kinect isn't rendering it obsolete on its own, but it's taking away a sense of the novelty that the Wiimote earlier offered and thrived on. The fact that it's hitting at a time when Nintendo isn't offering anything of significant note to maintain the Wii's momentum is a massive issue and it will make Kinect's initial reception far more than it would have been otherwise.

That said, I agree with you on the 6 months note about Kinect, but unless Nintendo is waiting in the wings with something just spectacular or innovative, I don't see the Wii getting back to where it was. And it's debatable that it even has to.
 
iamaustrian said:
it was more like 3 parties gave Nintendo the middle finger by
a) releasing 99% absolut shit on wii
b) not even considering to advertise said shit
c) blaming Nintendo then for lack of sales

edit: beaten (sort of)
and what did nintendo do to remedy the situation? nothing you say?
 

Vinci

Danish
Green Biker Dude said:
and what did nintendo do to remedy the situation? nothing you say?

Beyond providing them a 70 million strong install base? What do you suggest that they do?
 
Green Biker Dude said:
and what did nintendo do to remedy the situation? nothing you say?
Publish DQIX, help pay to advertise Monster Hunter Tri, premiere Goldeneye at their E3 conference, have Retro help various FPS developers

But I can see how those can be viewed as "nothing"
 
balladofwindfishes said:
Publish DQIX, help pay to advertise Monster Hunter Tri, premiere Goldeneye at their E3 conference, have Retro help various FPS developers

But I can see how those can be viewed as "nothing"
wow 4 games in the span of 2 years

i'm convinced

vinci said:
When? Now or before?
i think now would be pointless
 
entrement said:
Another troubling sticking point is Japan. Software sales for the Wii third parties titles have been mediocre. Didn't Sengoku Basara PS3 outsell the Wil version 2 to 1 in its debut?

I know DQX is still the oven, but other than that I can't think of any big 3rd party Japanese title that's in the pipeline.

Inazuma Eleven Wii is pretty big IMO and it wouldn't surprise me to see MH3G next summer for Wii.
 

TunaLover

Member
Vinci said:
If there's one area that Nintendo 100% fucked up on it was not supporting the smaller 3rd parties that actually were trying to bring out quality, interesting software for the thing. They should have babysat the hell out of those guys.
Completly agree, makes me wonder if Nintendo is really that big financial company that GAF thinks it is, some of their practices towards development are pretty damn conservative, so I really think that Nintendo simply doesn't have the money necessary to help all those small developers for the simple fact they will not get mayor benefits in a fickle bussiness like this, no thinking even in moneyhating big developers.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
The way I see it, It took 3-4 years of redesigns and price cuts for the Ps3 and 360 to become broad market machines, they are aiming for longer console cycles out of necessity. The only fault I see in the whole Wii strategy (and is a big one) is the use outdated architecture, not power. Had they delivered on the original speculation of near 360 graphics, but in SD, and get rid of stupid limitations like 40MB for Wiiware, they would be in a much better position right now.

So, no. I don't agree with the premise "that MS/Sony were right after all".
 
captmcblack said:
All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!


LOL :lol

OMG!

Quoted for hilarious truth!


balladofwindfishes said:
You also have to remember that MS and Sony can dip into funds from their other brands to fund their game sections. Nintendo can't do that.


Good job they have never ever once made a loss from their gaming sales and are one of the most cash-rich companies in japan then!
 
Vinci said:
Then give me a timeframe: When in the Wii's lifetime would have been the best time?
i don't know, nor do i claim to be an expert - if i was, i'd be making money working in the industry. but if microsoft/sony can get games and nintendo can't, they are obviously doing something wrong
 
turnbuckle said:

Tigers suck.
Kenny Rogers cheated with pine tar.
Dave Dombrowski is going to die.
Miguel Cabrera is going to go crazy and murder Austin Jackson in a Santeria ritual.

Now that we've got that out of the way, if you want to move the goalposts for things you can do so - but let's acknowledge that you are doing so. Traditionally, a console generation lasts 5/6 years. If we start from the time of the crash in 1983, we can say this is true.

8-bit/third generation (1983 - 1989)
16/32-bit/4th generation (1989 - 1995)
32/64-bit/5th generation (1995 - 2000)
128-bit/6th generation (2000 - 2005)
Current/7th generation (2005 - present)

This gen is the first time mfgrs have tried to extend the gen past the usual 5/6 years...and that has everything to do with the massive amount of money they spent making these machines (given the uncertain global economy, they need this shit to stretch so they can eat), and the fact that Nintendo came in with this machine that undercuts the typical "increase power, increase cost" of the last 20 or so years of industry rules. MS and Sony both came in with powerful machines at immediately high consumer cost...which is a problem when the entire world is strapped for cash. Nintendo walked in with a machine that was much cheaper than their competitors, and had a unique and compelling feature that until now - 4 years later - was exclusive to the Wii. MS and Sony needed this gen to continue because the only way they were making back their money is through time and attrition, not the typical "razors and razorblades" sales model, especially since it took them both several revisions and pricecuts to even get people to buy the razors (consoles) in the firs tplace.

If this gen ends here, everyone that isn't Nintendo suffered massive failure by comparison - in terms of sales, profits, and every other numerical metric you can find. If you're a third party developer/publisher, you sold less units and made less money than you did last gen (and you're thanking God that there is DLC and digital distribution so at least you got free money off of that to stanch your losses).

Is the Wii fading? Of course it is. It's 4 years into the typical lifecycle. Think of where your PS1 was in 2000, or where your original Xbox was in 2005. It makes sense that the Wii would be down from WHATTHEFUCK sales to regular decent sales given the thing's been out since Bush was president. The other consoles were well below that too, but they have done things to extend the generation and justify their prices.

Nintendo cannot fight in that way, since their console is very old tech. If they're going to fight in an extended generation, they need to speak in the only language people know during a global recession - $$$$$$$$$$$$.

That's it, and that's all.

Tigers suck. :lol
 

Vinci

Danish
Green Biker Dude said:
i don't know, nor do i claim to be an expert - if i was, i'd be making money working in the industry. but if microsoft/sony can get games and nintendo can't, they are obviously doing something wrong

Well, lets look at the beginning of this generation - which was massively impacted by the last generation:

MS brings out the 360. The system is alone for a year. MS uses its massive warchest and influence on PC developers to build a strong library of willing supporters.

Sony, meanwhile, is bringing out the successor to the most popular video game system of all time. The company has always had a very strong relationship with 3rd parties. They price the system higher than people want, but everyone still believes Sony will end up the victor in the market.

Gearing up for these two, 3rd parties invest a huge amount of capital and effort into HD development and tools. Every game they produce is going to cost a fortune, but MS and Sony are good for it from their perspective.

Nintendo, dead last the former generation and generally shunned by 3rd parties for two generations in a row, releases the Wii as a way to differentiate themselves and keep their costs down, but also to attempt to appeal to a large audience from the start.

Given this scenario at the beginning of this generation, do you honestly feel Nintendo was in any position to out-spend or out-do either MS or Sony on moneyhatting or general support for 3rd parties?
 

jay

Member
Green Biker Dude said:
i don't know, nor do i claim to be an expert - if i was, i'd be making money working in the industry. but if microsoft/sony can get games and nintendo can't, they are obviously doing something wrong

Figuring out why who does what can be very hard because while I agree with you that Nintendo clearly didn't do enough based on the results, there have been instances of entire industries being myopic, short sighted and stupid.

I think the question you should ask the people you're discussing this with is, "why exactly do you think publishers have given Nintendo the middle finger?" You may get some interesting responses but you'll also likely get some decent conspiracy theories.

Edit - Vinci's post is pretty good
 
If this is going to move into 3rd party territory, then I have to say, I'm completely satisfied with the current offerings for the system. Don't really give a shit if Chad Warren is in denial.
 
Kinect will shine this holiday season, but Wii is not out of the game just yet. And it will still sell very well this holiday season. As for the 3DS, you better believe it'll be huge. It's something new coming to the market: a handheld 3D device that just happens to play video games too and those games just happen to be Nintendo games. Not to mention the support from 3rd parties we've seen so far and those we have yet to see.
 

jorma

is now taking requests
dragonfart28 said:
2 WEEK OLD PERIPHERAL IS PERMA SUCCESS WHILE 4 YEAR OLD CASHCOW IS ACTUALLY A FAD.

NEWS AT 11

While i've read far from the entire thread, it seems to me that the only ones using the word "fad" are the ones sarcastically dismissing the OP.
 

Bizzyb

Banned
Skyward Sword WILL be Nintendo's last Big Wii game. The Wii is clearly a sinking ship (or at least on the very onset) Investing any further major resources into the machine at this point would be suicide.

The last batch of great games (The Conduit2 , Epic Mickey, Skyward Sword, etc) we have to see for Wii be all but exhausted by Summer of Next year. I simply do not see Wii survivng another Christmas, Unless Nintendo plans to launch Skyward Sword for next Holiday.

That said I fully expect to NOT see either Pikmin 3 or DQX on Wii. Not with the current trend of less than expected Software sales on Wii. Those titles would do better on a console that HASN'T lost what remaining mindshare of hardcore gamers it already had.
 

WillyFive

Member
It's too early to tell, especially before the biggest season in the industry.

And besides, even if the 'phenomenon' was over, it just means it is now at the same level of popularity as the other two.

captmcblack is right. This isn't much of a bad thing for the Wii, just a good thing for it's competition.
 
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