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[farnham]

Yes, its lifetime lead is quite secure.

However, for the last couple of months at least, in total WW terms it has been outsold by both PS3 and 360. And in terms of insult upon injury, it's not because they've dramatically accelerated or anything - the leading console WW at the moment is down YoY in these last two months, in two out of the three major territories anyway. So that's quite a dramatic turnaround for a console that's sold so well to date. Of course people will talk about that.

I think this thread would be better kept til after the holidays though. There could still be a big Nov/Dec bounce.

there better be

 

[Fafalada]

It is.

Not Software wise - Wii hit 200M yearly in 3rd year, and has been dropping since (this year looks headed for ~170M).
PS2 first hit it in 4th year (though 3rd was damn close already), but continued tracking ~200M yearly until its 8th year. And that was IMO the biggest reason to talk about a 10year cycle.

 

[Bisnic]

I'm really curious about the Wii in 2011...

Because, seriously, what do they have other than Zelda and maybe DQ? Maybe they will finally decide to release all these interesting Japan-only RPGs?

I don't want DKCR to be my last Wii game until Zelda release in summer/fall 2011.

 

[farnham]

I'm really curious about the Wii in 2011...

Because, seriously, what do they have other than Zelda and maybe DQ? Maybe they will finally decide to release all these interesting Japan-only RPGs?

Wii Relax, Wii Sports 3 and Wii Fit 3

 

[ElFly]

I don't think that's it. In fact, that barely makes sense; third parties saw how high sales were and thought "bail out"? Did sales need to be low? The DS manages to have amazing 3rd party support and sales while supporting premiere Nintendo franchise titles. I just think its the nature of why people bought the Wii in the first place- either as 1) a toy that they could occasionally play at parties or 2) a Nintendo system that they could play Mario on.

The DS has wonderful third party support because the alternative was terrible. That's not the case with the Wii.

The problem is not that Nintendo own games sell well or not, but the fact that Nintendo makes a very unique product that third parties cannot copy. If third parties were afraid of competing with a first party they wouldn't have released tons of FPSs on the Xbox and 360, cause Halo was in an unassailable position.

 

[Sipowicz]

Nintendo flooded the market with first party titles to pump the userbase up to levels that third parties would feel comfortable developing for it. But the third parties saw this high userbase and then saw the sales of Brawl and Mario Kart and the like and decided they couldn't compete with Nintendo's games on Nintendo's system.

I really doubt that's what happened. the initial burst of first party software contained a lot of gamecube remnants. Something that was posible because of the similarity in hardware and the complete abandonment of the gamecube. the sucess of the system seems to have taken even nintendo by surprise, which is why we saw over a year of nothingness after brawl.

third parties were a mixed bag and a lot of them did well. ubisoft got on board as quickly as possible and (eventually) brought some good quality software out, which included the imaginitve jsut dance games.activision tried their hardest to get their multiplatform titles up to par and they've been doing a good job since. sega made some good/successful stuff too as did capcom.

but most third party games were copycat, low-budget bullshit . and in those rare instances where this shit would have a smattering of appeal to gamers they would hype it up as the second coming of christ and charge way over the odds for it. which unsurprisingly put every right-minded gamer off.

 

[BobsRevenge]

This image strikes me as more sexual than it probably ought to.

 

[zigg]

If third parties were afraid of competing with a first party they wouldn't have released tons of FPSs on the Xbox and 360, cause Halo was in an unassailable position.

FPS on consoles is also a growth genre, so there was lots of room for more of them. Someday, it'll reach maturity (it's starting to get there now, I think), and there will only be room for Halos, Calls of Duty, etc. Wel-known "classic" (for lack of a better word) Nintendo franchises, on the other hand, occupy almost exclusively mature or post-mature genres, so there isn't a whole lot of interest in newcomers.

Ultimately, the real problem is that Nintendo seems to have simply run out of interesting ideas to keep Wii going. I don't think Wii Party's relatively low appeal is because the nobody wants new Wii x titles, but rather because Nintendo hasn't introduced anything compelling in the Wii franchise in a relatively long time. Wii Party has only itself to blame for being uninteresting.

Software drives the market. The Wii platform is still healthy, even if it's not pulling astronomical numbers. Interesting software would pull it to high heights once again.

 

[farnham]

looks like wii got a minor sales hike in japan this week due to the red wii release

FPS on consoles is also a growth genre, so there was lots of room for more of them. Someday, it'll reach maturity (it's starting to get there now, I think), and there will only be room for Halos, Calls of Duty, etc. Wel-known "classic" (for lack of a better word) Nintendo franchises, on the other hand, occupy almost exclusively mature or post-mature genres, so there isn't a whole lot of interest in newcomers.

Ultimately, the real problem is that Nintendo seems to have simply run out of interesting ideas to keep Wii going. I don't think Wii Party's relatively low appeal is because the nobody wants new Wii x titles, but rather because Nintendo hasn't introduced anything compelling in the Wii franchise in a relatively long time. Wii Party has only itself to blame for being uninteresting.

Software drives the market. The Wii platform is still healthy, even if it's not pulling astronomical numbers. Interesting software would pull it to high heights once again.

platformers was quite the growing genre this gen compared to last gen looking just at the numbers. its just that no one makes platformers outside of nintendo and sega (sonic)

 

[big_z]

the days of the wii being the must have hard to find item are over sure but it's still selling. considering the system has sold about the same amount as the two HD systems combined you cant say nintendo is screwed. they sold a ton of units in a smaller amount of time than normal so they've reached market saturation a lot faster.

considering they're using 10 year old tech and the average 5 year life cycle of the console is nearing, it's time for them to focus on their next offering. i think next november will be wii2. spring/summer 2012 at the latest.

could be a bit tricky for nintendo if the 360/ps3 successors dont hit until 2013. i think nintendo will need a system closer in power with the rest next time along with whatever advanced controller they design. launching early would give sony and microsoft a chance to out do them which would be a huge risk.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

So a system that has a sharp decline in its sales after 4 years of release is a fad?

GAF is priceless! :lol


It's as if people magically forgot about pretty much every game system in existence prior to this generation.

 

[GCX]

Wii Relax, Wii Sports 3 and Wii Fit 3

All of those require large first party teams. With a ton of 3DS software in development, Wii2 software pre-production + Skyward Sword/Pikmin 3, I don't think Nintendo has capacity for those projects.

 

[farnham]

All of those require large first party teams. With a ton of 3DS software in development, Wii2 software pre-production + Skyward Sword/Pikmin 3, I don't think Nintendo has capacity for those projects.

Wii Relax has been in development for a long time now

and do you really think a new Wii Sports or Wii Fit would require that much time ?

 

[jetjevons]

The Wii may be in decline but Nintendo is doing just fine.

Look, I'm a poet.

And I didn't even know it.

 

[Plinko]

I guess I'm just not seeing the insane holiday bump many people are predicting. I can't see Donkey Kong selling systems and Kinect is the "big thing" that does what the Wii does with better graphics and no controllers.

I think the failure of Wii Party was, for me, the sign that the system is definitely in its downfall. That seemed like the perfect style of game for the Wii casual base and they completely ignored it.

 

[Ninja Moomin]

Yes, its lifetime lead is quite secure.

However, for the last couple of months at least, in total WW terms it has been outsold by both PS3 and 360. And in terms of insult upon injury, it's not because they've dramatically accelerated or anything - the leading console WW at the moment is down YoY in these last two months, in two out of the three major territories anyway. So that's quite a dramatic turnaround for a console that's sold so well to date. Of course people will talk about that.

I think this thread would be better kept til after the holidays though. There could still be a big Nov/Dec bounce.

gofreak. I love you - you are easily one of my favourite gaffers.

So reasonable and nice. (Hugs)


I think with DKCR and Epic Mickey Wii is going to clean up with the family crowd... and agree we should reopen the conversation in january when the dust settles.

 

[GCX]

Wii Relax has been in development for a long time now

and do you really think a new Wii Sports or Wii Fit would require that much time ?

Wii Relax has been in development such a long time that we don't even know if it exists in its original form anymore.

And yeah, Wii Fit+ and WiiSports Resort did require quite large teams so I'm basing my claim on that.

 

[evangd007]

looks like wii got a minor sales hike in japan this week due to the red wii release

I have a feeling people are going the underestimate the impact of the red Wii. This despite numerous threads previously saying, "All Nintendo needs is new colors to reinvigorate sales."

 

[markatisu]

I think the failure of Wii Party was, for me, the sign that the system is definitely in its downfall. That seemed like the perfect style of game for the Wii casual base and they completely ignored it.

I think in Jan you can make that statement but not now

 

[captmcblack]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

 

[turnbuckle]

I have a feeling people are going the underestimate the impact of the red Wii. This despite numerous threads previously saying, "All Nintendo needs is new colors to reinvigorate sales."

Are new colors ever really something that invigorate meaningful sales? I'm just not sure there are enough marginal Wii holdouts that can be tipped just by a new color, and outside of padding financial and install base figures I'm not sure what utility increasing sales to people who already own a Wii is.

 

[FrankT]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

Makes for a heck of a generation right. Or at least part of one.

I do not think the Wii is done just yet, but who knows where it goes from here.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Are new colors ever really something that invigorate meaningful sales? I'm just not sure there are enough marginal Wii holdouts that can be tipped just by a new color, and outside of padding financial and install base figures I'm not sure what utility increasing sales to people who already own a Wii is.

I thought new colors did well for the N64 and GCN, but they were in much more dire situations, and the GCN was dirt cheap around this time last generation.

 

[farnham]

Are new colors ever really something that invigorate meaningful sales? I'm just not sure there are enough marginal Wii holdouts that can be tipped just by a new color, and outside of padding financial and install base figures I'm not sure what utility increasing sales to people who already own a Wii is.

new colors helped wii in japan all the time

but as i said. the black wiis release was also exactly the time when wii fall behind 360 without a particular reason.

 

[markatisu]

new colors helped wii in japan all the time

but as i said. the black wiis release was also exactly the time when wii fall behind 360 without a particular reason.

Yeah Colors do not move Wiis in America, price does.

 

[Ushojax]

All it takes for the Wii to get back to the ridiculous sales is for a single killer app to come out. DKCR, Other M, Galaxy 2, and all their other franchises are not going to do that, those are selling to existing console owners, but I'm sure Nintendo is beavering away on something that will attract new users the way that Wii Fit and Sports did, maybe using the Vitality Sensor.

 

[TheKurgan]

I bought a Wii for my kids for Christmas. +1 Sales!

 

[jay]

But the third parties saw this high userbase and then saw the sales of Brawl and Mario Kart and the like and decided they couldn't compete with Nintendo's games on Nintendo's system.

I am prone to think that this is more of a matter of 3rd party relations than anything. These companies flood extremely competitive markets frequently without claiming the competition is too intense. There could be some truth to the idea that these same companies don't want to compete with Nintendo in genres they have comparatively less expertise in, but that reasoning seems overblown. I know that you acknowledged 3rd party relations as being relevant, but I think that issue has got to be much significant than most of us think or at one time thought.

As for the phenomenon, yes it is over or ending. And as many have said, that is a separate issue from is the Wii dead.

 

[iamaustrian]

a price cut to 150 or even 99 and they would sell another 10 millions in year

I can see a Zelda SS+Wiisports plus+NSMB+2 wiimotes plus - Wii bundle for 199 next year.

 

[Green Biker Dude]

the fad is dead

it just proves no single company can keep a system going just with their games. nintendo may have made money out of it, but it would've been much better for them in the long run to have spent some of that money by helping third parties

suck it, nintendo fans

 

[captmcblack]

The *second* the Wii is $149 with a game or two, it is going to destroy the human race again.

In a crazy economy, money talks - and there are more than a few families still clinging to that PS2 that would love to have a "new" console without having to visit their cousin's house to play. None of the other console manufacturers are providing that immediate value, yet - instead of legitimately cutting the price, they add more bulletpoint stuff and more crap to the bundles.

Nintendo needs to drop the Wii to $149, drop the DS Lite to $99, and the DSi to $129. Produce all colors for all regions, and bundle everything with at least 1 evergreen game that's been out long enough (Mario Kart in the DSes, NSMB/Galaxy and Wii Sports Resort in the Wiis). End this generation once and for all.

 

[Hooj]

Some crackin Wii games coming out soon and next year to tide them over anyways.

Amazon knockin 60% off their Wii console will boost it all too.

But to answer the title i'd say the phenomenon in regards to the new way to play is over but not for specific games. Come this Christmas there will be phenomenon for Kirby, Donkey Kong, Epic Mickey etc.

Next year it will be Skyward Sword.

 

[dacuk]

hardcore gamers dont dig nintendo games

Sorry to disappoint you, but after 25 yrs. playing games, (starting from 2600), and having owned GB, GBA, SNES, Atari Lynx, Game Gear, NeoGeoPocket, game.com (don't laugh at me), PC engine, DreamCast, DS, PSP, Wii, and 360, I can consider myself a hardcore gamer. And I love DKC and other Nintendo games.
You are delusional thinking that playing only 360 or PS3 will give you the monopoly of "hardcorism"

Spoiler

I know the last word does not even exists...

 

[Sipowicz]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown

hey. a win is a win. party at my place whooo!!

 

[Dunlop]

the fad is dead

it just proves no single company can keep a system going just with their games. nintendo may have made money out of it, but it would've been much better for them in the long run to have spent some of that money by helping third parties

suck it, nintendo fans

While I am not the biggest Wii fan to be sure, how does any of this hurt them? It's not like Nintendo would stop making games for their own system and third party support was already a joke...also if the Wii stopped selling tomorrow it would still end the generation with most consoles sold

 

[balladofwindfishes]

the fad is dead

it just proves no single company can keep a system going just with their games. nintendo may have made money out of it, but it would've been much better for them in the long run to have spent some of that money by helping third parties

suck it, nintendo fans

The Wii is still doing better than the PS2 at this time in its life. It was never a fad to start with, just a highly successful electronic device.

Nintendo spent money to help third parties in the GCN days, and the third parties found a way to use that funding to make PS2 games. I doubt it would have helped them in the long run.

 

[Green Biker Dude]

While I am not the biggest Wii fan to be sure, how does any of this hurt them? It's not like Nintendo would stop making games for their own system and third party support was already a joke...also if the Wii stopped selling tomorrow it would still end the generation with most consoles sold

i never said they were hurt, i said it would have benefited them more

although i think it does hurt their image with the hardcore gaming community and, most importantly, the third parties. the wii has shown nintendo don't really give a shit about them while microsoft and sony offer them all sorts of incentive

The Wii is still doing better than the PS2 at this time in its life. It was never a fad to start with, just a highly successful electronic device.

Nintendo spent money to help third parties in the GCN days, and the third parties found a way to use that funding to make PS2 games. I doubt it would have helped them in the long run.

the gamecube sold 20 million in its lifetime though. the wii sold much more than that. even if the majority of the userbase was casual people with no real interest in real games, that userbase would've definitely helped them. plus, the developers couldn't just port wii games to the xbox 360 or the ps3 this time

 

[farnham]

the fad is dead

it just proves no single company can keep a system going just with their games. nintendo may have made money out of it, but it would've been much better for them in the long run to have spent some of that money by helping third parties

suck it, nintendo fans

you are talking like the wii is a financial desaster. it is still no.1 and nintendo actually proved that they can make a system no.1 without the help of third parties. and if 4 years is not long term i dont know what is as it is the normal lifespan of a console.

i never said they were hurt, i said it would have benefited them more

although i think it does hurt their image with the hardcore gaming community and, most importantly, the third parties. the wii has shown nintendo don't really give a shit about them while microsoft and sony offer them all sorts of incentive

i dont know

being dead last in the console race is by far the worst image you can have. i think nintendo is rather happy about their image as no.1 compared to the image as the worst selling console out there

i never said the wii was a financial disaster or that nintendo was hurt from it. learn to read and stop being so defensive. nintendo wasted a great opportunity with it

dealwithit.gif

wasnt the wii pretty much the dream scenario for nintendo until today ?

they were dead last and people like pachter were predicting nintendo to go third party

 

[Dunlop]

Nintendo spent money to help third parties in the GCN days, and the third parties found a way to use that funding to make PS2 games. I doubt it would have helped them in the long run.

Really? They took Nintendo's money to make PS2 games?

....Really?

 

[Green Biker Dude]

i never said the wii was a financial disaster or that nintendo was hurt from it. learn to read and stop being so defensive. nintendo wasted a great opportunity with it

dealwithit.gif

 

[Vinci]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

Holy shit, I want to clone you. Perfect post. I love people who are able to put things into perspective.

EDIT:

Nintendo really fucked it up by not putting out more Motion Plus games.

I think Nintendo, rather foolishly, thought M+ would correct one of the prevailing issues that developers and gamers had brought up regarding the Wiimote and, thus, would get more interest from developers than it did. In essence, I agree with you.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Nintendo really fucked it up by not putting out more Motion Plus games.

Also they didn't have a Wii Whatever phenomenon this year. I mean something like Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit, not Wii Music and Wii Party.

 

[MarshMellow96]

The Wii is totally the Chopper Gunner killstreak...

- Its resented by its victims, who can't wait for it to be 'over'.
- Even if it does end, it's wiped the floor with everything you've got. At which point, the other team 'won'. :lol

Seriously though, I don't know the latest figures, but have Microsoft sold 30 million Xboxes in 7 months? Have Sony sold 35 million?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Everyone wasted a great opportunity with it

Fixed.

There's plenty of blame to slop around - everyone involved made mistakes, and everyone suffered because of that.

 

[Napoleonthechimp]

Nintendo really fucked it up by not putting out more Motion Plus games.

Also they didn't have a Wii Whatever phenomenon this year. I mean something like Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit, not Wii Music and Wii Party.

I came in to say this. People talk about lag and drift but on a purely practical level I don't see the average customer seeing much difference between the motion plus technology and ps3 move.

I'm a Nintendo fan but the 360 has appealed more to me over the last few years than the Wii.

 

[the_zombie_luke]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

:lol This is the greatest post I've ever read. Too true.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

i never said they were hurt, i said it would have benefited them more

although i think it does hurt their image with the hardcore gaming community and, most importantly, the third parties. the wii has shown nintendo don't really give a shit about them while microsoft and sony offer them all sorts of incentive

Let's have a look back in time

NES- No blood, no crosses. Every game must adhere to a strict code and must be appropriate for all ages!

Genesis- Sega does what Nintendon't. Mario is a kiddy baby, and Sonic is too cool for school. Genesis has the xtreme games the nineties kid adores.

PSX- Nintendo is for kids, look at this crazy high quality music and videos! That's HARDCORE, not crappy compressed textures and videos of the N64. Also, we have Square's games!

Xbox/PS2- The GCN is for kiddies. Look at this mature content found on these two systems. Nintendo has no third party support, but we do!


I'm not entirely sure what their image is to you, but they've always been the family friendly, casual gamer system.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Really? They took Nintendo's money to make PS2 games?

....Really?

Capcom 5. Nintendo paid for 5 exclusive games and ended up only getting 1. (3 ported to PS2 and 1 cancelled)

 

[Vinci]

I'm not entirely sure what their image is to you, but they've always been the family friendly, casual gamer system.

Well yeah, less competition there. Everyone else wants to be the badassingest badass around.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I think the Wii's not in a position where it's going to sell many more units, but I think they did close to the best they could. Moneyhatting developers to make games for Wii or starting studios to make more games for Wii would have lead to games that came out this year when people had already moved on. I don't think Nintendo can release a new system next year either because all of their developers are either making 3DS games or have just finished up on Wii games so they'd have nothing for a 2011 launch. It still is even with the competition, but it used to be easily the best selling console of all time and broke almost every sales record I can think of so just being on level with the competition after that is a disappointment I would say.