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[MadOdorMachine]

In no way is the Wii or DS over. As a matter of fact, it may be their lifeline for a while. The cost of creating Wii and 3DS games are equal. People want to shrug off slower sales of Wii but fail to take into consideration the economic downturn which is going to get much worse. If people aren't buying a Wii at $199, what makes you think they'll buy a 3DS at $249 plus? The only people doing that will be hardcore gamers or people that can afford them but a large percentage of Wii and DS owners will not be able to afford it at that price. A weak dollar could also eat into Nintendo's profit margins on 3DS which would stick the price for it longer than usual. Wii and DS on the other hand can be lowered in price substantially and can generate revenue with quick cash ins like another NSMB or DKCR2. I predict adoption of 3DS will be high initially in the US and that sales will taper off rather quickly probably in the second year. I think the 3DS will have long legs, but it will take longer than Wii and DS to reach mass market adoption until the economy stabilizes.

 

[BocoDragon]

I remember when people talked like the PS2 was on its way out in 2005. I just don't see how the Wii doesn't get support for a few more years with that crazy install base. If Nintendo doesn't support it into the future (which I've yet to believe), then some segment of the third parties will find a way to capitalize on it.

 

[abstract alien]

It's weird how we perceive the Wii now.

After so long of looking at it and going, "wow, its doing amazing. again" every month, we now go, "wow, its doing so poorly" when it finally levels out with the competition.

I don't get it either honestly.

 

[Shard]

In these sense the Wii has pretty much hit saturation point these days, then yes, in the sense that the Wii is near death, then no.

 

[Medalion]

Third party confirmed again?

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

I really don't think the new Dragon Quest will be developed for the Wii. Level 5 seems to have too many projects going on at the moment and their focus has shifted completely to 3DS and PS3, do they have any experience with the system?

There's already a Dragon Quest game for the normal DS, 3DS has 0 installed base and a long way till it's here and the Playstation 3 seems an unlikely candidate at this point, since the development would take too long a time.

I assume the order of things goes like this:


- Game moved to late 2011-early 2012
- Enix not sure where it'll land anymore
- Rumors about 3DS/PS3
- Game lands on 3DS?

Or it could just come to Wii

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

In no way is the Wii or DS over. As a matter of fact, it may be their lifeline for a while. The cost of creating Wii and 3DS games are equal. People want to shrug off slower sales of Wii but fail to take into consideration the economic downturn which is going to get much worse. If people aren't buying a Wii at $199, what makes you think they'll buy a 3DS at $249 plus? The only people doing that will be hardcore gamers or people that can afford them but a large percentage of Wii and DS owners will not be able to afford it at that price. A weak dollar could also eat into Nintendo's profit margins on 3DS which would stick the price for it longer than usual. Wii and DS on the other hand can be lowered in price substantially and can generate revenue with quick cash ins like another NSMB or DKCR2. I predict adoption of 3DS will be high initially in the US and that sales will taper off rather quickly probably in the second year. I think the 3DS will have long legs, but it will take longer than Wii and DS to reach mass market adoption until the economy stabilizes.

Not necessarily. The handheld market is much more supportative of lower budget titles. Games like Resident Evil Revelations will probably cost around the same as Wii titles sure, but games like Nintendogs & Cats and Steel Diver wouldn't cost nearly as much to make (Hell I reckon thatsOOT 3DS, SF64 3DS and SSF4 3DS are much cheaper to develop as well, since they're ports/remakes)

Nintendo is not a big company? how so?

He means in terms of the amount of staff they have. (Roughly 4,000 employees world wide and of course that includes non game development staff as well, so yes, Nintendo are only a medium sized company really)

 

[iamaustrian]

Nintendo is not a big company? how so?

Nintendo's nest egg was bigger than Sonys at the end of the gamecube era.
you can imagine how much cash they have now.


while the Wii is indeed going down slowly I can see big things coming with the 3DS.
also don't forget that there are still some Wii blockbusters coming like Zelda SS etc

side-note: No, I didn't read through all the replies

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

Strictly speaking about the Wii "phenomenon", Nintendo's blue ocean isn't so blue anymore. I think their strategy was to support the Wii with strong casualcore software once the rest of the big three caught up, but we kind of know what happened to third-party support on that end.

 

[MadOdorMachine]

Not necessarily. The handheld market is much more supportative of lower budget titles. Games like Resident Evil Revelations will probably cost around the same as Wii titles sure, but games like Nintendogs & Cats and Steel Diver wouldn't cost nearly as much to make (Hell I reckon thatsOOT 3DS, SF64 3DS and SSF4 3DS are much cheaper to develop as well, since they're ports/remakes)

I don't know, there's a lot of shovel ware on that was cheap to make. Plus there's always WiiWare and 3DSware. You also have to take into install base when determining your ROI. Demand will be high for 3DS games during launch, but if people can't afford the system it may be harder to maintain it. Sequels are where the money's at.

 

[MYE]

They are going 4th party confirmed.

There wont even be a party

 

[ShinNL]

their target audience is the casual gamer

not the hardcore gamer

they focused on hardcore gamers these year but those people wont move from 360 and PS3

while the casual gamer now moved on to move and kinect

Hardcore gamers have all 3 consoles. Casual gamers are on 360/PS3.

Non-gamers* are on Wii. Soon also on Kinect.

There's no hardcore gamer who goes: oh, I have a 360 now, I love Donkey Kong but I won't budge.

* People who usually don't play videogames or own game consoles.

 

[farnham]

Hardcore gamers have all 3 consoles. Casual gamers are on 360/PS3.

Non-gamers are on Wii. Soon also on Kinect.

There's no hardcore gamer who goes: oh, I have a 360 now, I love Donkey Kong but I won't budge.

hardcore gamers dont dig nintendo games

I really don't think the new Dragon Quest will be developed for the Wii. Level 5 seems to have too many projects going on at the moment and their focus has shifted completely to 3DS and PS3, do they have any experience with the system?

There's already a Dragon Quest game for the normal DS, 3DS has 0 installed base and a long way till it's here and the Playstation 3 seems an unlikely candidate at this point, since the development would take too long a time.

I assume the order of things goes like this:


- Game moved to late 2011-early 2012
- Enix not sure where it'll land anymore
- Rumors about 3DS/PS3
- Game lands on 3DS?

Or it could just come to Wii

what makes you think level 5 will be developing DQ X ?

the rumor was that genious sonority is making it

also you do realize that DQVII was released on PSone despite the fact that PS2 was out right ?

 

[ShinNL]

hardcore gamers dont dig nintendo games

Again, you're confusing the CoD generation with the actual term: hardcore gamer.

 

[Tabris]

Hardcore gamers love Nintendo games. Hardcore gamers do not love non-games.

Non-games was the reason for the Wii success and also it's failure (as I predicted FYI)

 

[farnham]

Hardcore gamers love Nintendo games. Hardcore gamers do not love non-games.

Non-games was the reason for the Wii success and also it's failure (as I predicted FYI)

its pretty hard to call the no.1 system a failure. it is not doing well right now but failure is something like gamecube or n64

 

[1-D_FTW]

Considering how badly they undershot the performance to get huge margins, they have to be pretty ecstatic that they had the number one selling system (by a huge margin) for all these years. Almost lasted until the 3DS launch. What ever anyone thinks of the strategy, it clearly was a genius business move.

hardcore gamers dont dig nintendo games

Joke post? Entrenched fanboys don't love Nintendo games. But said fanboys have all different sides. Some hate MS. Some hate Sony. Whatever. Nobody blindly hates one of the best developers in the world on any rationale ground.

 

[farnham]

Considering how badly they undershot the performance to get huge margins, they have to be pretty ecstatic that they had the number one selling system (by a huge margin) for all these years. Almost lasted until the 3DS launch. What ever anyone thinks of the strategy, it clearly was a genius business move.

it was a genius business move but they need to get back on track to secure the top spot next gen.

if they keep on loosing against 360 and ps3 in the market the next system will be perceived as Gamecube 3

 

[[Nintex]]

Yeah, but they did manage to run ahead of the pack with a souped up GameCube for 4 years. Nintendo should've had WiiRelax or something else with a WiiFit impact. Maybe some variety in the holiday line-up as well but they've moved their focus to 3DS now and for good reason.

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

Genius Sonority?? YUK!!

 

[jump_button]

two more year's to go im sorry

 

[farnham]

Genius Sonority?? YUK!!

hey armored project got arte piazza (a hohum developer) to make the DQ 4 - 6 remakes which are excellent

armored project also got chunsoft (which is an okay dev i guess) to make DQ 5 (which is the series best)

genius sonority made pretty good console pokemon games (colosseum and xd) and with armored project im sure they will do a fine job.

 

[Vigilant Walrus]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

 

[marc^o^]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

Mario Kart in HD would be enough to convince people to buy a new Nintendo console. Even the new Zelda and its cell shading art style would translate very well. I see your point and I agree with it to an extent, but Nintendo games rely more often than not on a unique palette of colours, instead of high level of details.

 

[Annoying Old Party Man]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

The Tokyo studio alone can produce amazing looking games, same with the studio that produced the Brawl Game (if they haven't dissolved yet). Retro seem to beg to have something more powerful to work with. In general, I would not underestimate Nintendo's technical output, though they would obviously need to outsource a little for high end, next generation projects.

 

[farnham]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

well they just have to hire people that have experience

as long as they have money they will be fine

 

[Bending_Unit_22]

Save this thread and do it again in January. There's not much point in debating it right now with the 2 biggest months of the year by far still out.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.

Could the result be disaster?

...and the devs who made "beautiful and technical" games for the HD twins or PC never had any experience of post-PS2 development at one stage either.

The question isn't whether Nintendo can handle the generational shift from GameCube-level hardware to post-360-level - they have the technical and artistic staff to do it - it's whether they can do it with the grace of, say, Capcom or whether we're in for a couple of years of the "growing pains" we saw with many other developers transitioning to HD systems.

It's also worth noting that the 3DS could be seen as a "stepping stone" of sorts from GameCube/Wii-level development - non-standard architecture and old tech - to a more modern environment, given that it seems to incorporate more modern hardware (fixed-function pixel shaders etc.)

 

[Suzzopher]

Wasn't the belief that the phenomenon would only last a year or two max? It managed to remain a phenomenon for the best part of four years. I doubt Nintendo mind too much about the current situation.

I just wish they would show their next home console soon.

 

[farnham]

Third party confirmed again?

i wonder if 360 will finally start selling when pokemon or mario comes out on 360

 

[J-Rock]

Man... DS, Wii, 3DS and Wii2. Nintendo seems to be having a hell of a run.

The 3DS is getting a lot of love. All they need to do is solidify interest in Wii2 and they're set for the next round.

 

[Paracelsus]

Man... DS, Wii, 3DS and Wii2. Nintendo seems to be having a hell of a run.

The 3DS is getting a lot of love. All they need to do is solidify interest in Wii2 and they're set for the next generation.

They need to rebuild their third party strategy from scratch.

 

[rezuth]

it has sold 30 million units and nintendo wants it to trickle to 45million units before talking successor. However sales have fallen so flat I don't see the Wii selling 45million in its lifespan

In the US alone.

 

[Prine]

Wii visuals are pretty offensive these days. Given the HD twins just barely put out decent looking games, Nintendo's gamble was their console would age horrendously.

Lack of online, poor display, media integration (bare bones) doesn't help either, its these components that keep peoples machine switched on and connected. Its not uncommon to use your 360 just to watch movies or chat with friends - and not play any games.

What MS have done is rejuvenate their old machine, but its the consoles ability to deliver rich media and respectable visuals which help sell it to new owners (if your impressed with Kinect) i believe.

 

[Rahxephon91]

Well I just got one and hell if they just dropped the price I'm sure that would create an even bigger bump.

 

[rezuth]

Well I just got one and hell if they just dropped the price I'm sure that would create an even bigger bump.

Rahxephon91
I have bad taste.
(Today, 12:09 PM)
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[GCX]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

Nintendo has expanded their internal teams with new staff lately, many of them probably have experience on HD development.

 

[Plinko]

They need to rebuild their third party strategy from scratch.

This won't be that hard after the success of the 3DS. My guess is that was their plan all along (when reading some comments from Nintendo about 3rd-party software).

As for the OP's question, it's clear the Wii has definitely peaked and is on the downward slide in popularity. I really think Nintendo needs to strike first in the next wave of consoles.

 

[Plinko]

Wii visuals are pretty offensive these days. Given the HD twins just barely put out decent looking games, Nintendo's gamble was their console would age horrendously.

Some are, yes. There's no excuse for companies to be putting out garbage like the Wii version of NFS: Hot Pursuit.

However, Sonic Colors is absolutely gorgeous.

 

[J-Rock]

They need to rebuild their third party strategy from scratch.

When I said "interest" I was also talking about Devs too. The 3DS is getting love from every direction. I'm curious to see if they can gain that kind of support for Wii2. I'm sure they want to but it'll be tricky. We'll see.

 

[trinest]

I say game wise we might not see much more from Nintendo- they will be working on the 3DS push- which is alright- we are nearing the end of the generation- there are a few more AAA titles left- so yeah.

 

[Suzzopher]

When I said "interest" I was also talking about Devs too. The 3DS is getting love from every direction. I'm curious to see if they can gain that kind of support for Wii2. I'm sure they want to but it'll be tricky. We'll see.

Well they'll never get the support of Valve or Epic sadly.

 

[Easy_D]

Well they'll never get the support of Valve or Epic sadly.

The fact that you mention Valve reminds me of when there were rumours circling around saying that Half Life 2 was coming to the Wii (Only known as the Revolution at the time)

 

[dwu8991]

The wii is still pumping along, plenty of good games still to come.

I don't think it makes much of a difference playing on a 46 plasma, it honestly doesn't look, to bad. Just dance 2 looks amazing, really great visuals, much better than the first game. Its just so fun dancing to the music vids. Of course the music selection won't be to everyones taste.

As for motion controls, wii does it better because its simple and intuitive to use!
None of this waving around like a monkey stuff and the move is way too expensive.

 

[Amir0x]

Wii visuals are pretty offensive these days. Given the HD twins just barely put out decent looking games, Nintendo's gamble was their console would age horrendously.

Lack of online, poor display, media integration (bare bones) doesn't help either, its these components that keep peoples machine switched on and connected. Its not uncommon to use your 360 just to watch movies or chat with friends - and not play any games.

What MS have done is rejuvenate their old machine, but its the consoles ability to deliver rich media and respectable visuals which help sell it to new owners (if your impressed with Kinect) i believe.

If that was the case, then those features would have appealed to people on the hunt for a videogame system before it got the abysmal Kinect - and clearly, even though Wii's bubble has burst, 360 has done way, way worse.

Your theory is flawed.

As for motion controls, wii does it better because its simple and intuitive to use!
None of this waving around like a monkey stuff and the move is way too expensive.

Hey it's cognitive dissonance hour again. Wii has "none of that waving around like a monkey stuff"? It's entire catalogue is virtually DEFINED by that gimmick shit. Further, if you actually LIKE motion controls, Move does it better and more accurately than Wii ever had. How can it be "less" intuitive? It's translating natural motions, only more accurately than Wii. By definition that's more intuitive :lol

It's ok to dislike motion controls. I do! It's not ok to say you love motion controls, herald the wii motion tech, and then shit on the move tech.

 

[MYE]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

:lol

Retro Studios and EAD Tokyo could teach most developers a thing or two

Spoiler

or a million

 

[Suzzopher]

:lol

Retro Studios and EAD Tokyo could teach most developers a thing or two

Spoiler

or a million

Even Intelligent Systems or R&D1 could teach 90% of western studios a thing or two when it comes to polishing a game.

 

[farnham]

Wii visuals are pretty offensive these days. Given the HD twins just barely put out decent looking games, Nintendo's gamble was their console would age horrendously.

Lack of online, poor display, media integration (bare bones) doesn't help either, its these components that keep peoples machine switched on and connected. Its not uncommon to use your 360 just to watch movies or chat with friends - and not play any games.

What MS have done is rejuvenate their old machine, but its the consoles ability to deliver rich media and respectable visuals which help sell it to new owners (if your impressed with Kinect) i believe.

wii visuals were bad day one

if anything the wii finally got some good looking games

Even Intelligent Systems or R&D1 could teach 90% of western studios a thing or two when it comes to polishing a game.

they should just make fire emblem wii 2 or at least bring over fire emblem DS 2

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

I dont think Nintendo is even capable of making a high AAA visual grade industry game, if they wanted to make a powerful console next generation.

They dont have any experience post gamecube lvl of graphics, and now they have skipped an entire generation of technology. Unlike other high profile devs who have made beautiful and technical games for the other systems, Nintendo stayed at visual fidelity level of GC.


Could the result be disaster?

You're right in saying that Nintendo will lag behind 3rd party devs in terms of graphics. Nintendo's staff probably by and large have no experience with modern graphics tech and we can see this divide already with the 3DS, where 3rd party titles look significantly better in terms of visuals.

But that won't really matter since graphics aren't Nintendo's focus anyway. The updated tech would be there mostly to appeal to 3rd parties.

 

[NeonZ]

Wii visuals are pretty offensive these days. Given the HD twins just barely put out decent looking games, Nintendo's gamble was their console would age horrendously.

Lack of online, poor display, media integration (bare bones) doesn't help either, its these components that keep peoples machine switched on and connected. Its not uncommon to use your 360 just to watch movies or chat with friends - and not play any games.

Hasn't that been the situation since the beginning of this generation? I don't see why it'd affect Wii's sales only now. The factor that led to the end of the Wii's giant success was just lack of proper software support.

Nintendo created 4 hit titles to get most of those sales (Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and NSMB Wii), but they can't make new hit titles to find new user bases just because they need those hardware sales. Nor can they make a constant stream of software to keep selling to the existent user base just by themselves.

Users not bothered by the lack of titles probably don't buy much after their initial purchase anyway, so they aren't reliable to keep software sales going strong. The ones that needed that constant stream of titles left the console. The current state of the Wii is the result.