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[Vinci]

Guess I've been reading/talking to the wrong sensationalists when it comes to the level of how doomed Nintendo is. I'll let that go.

The only time I see people use the line 'Nintendo is doomed' is when they're being smartasses and/or preemptively trying to defend against an attack that, more often than not, is never made. So yes, I think most people believe that Nintendo is rich as Scrooge Motherfucking McDuck and has some annoying characteristics that keep it from being as successful as it might otherwise be. Not that the company isn't already stupidly successful, but that has less to do with Nintendo being ingenious and more to do with how stupid everyone else is.

 

[JordanLMiller]

I think this is the last stages in the Wii's life I (a hardcore Nintendo fanboy at times) can see the writing on the wall,

How can you be a hardcore fanboy only at times?

 

[shaowebb]

I don't really see the Wii as over. The motion controlled casual market is attempting to saturate, but the Wii is still the only one of these types of consoles with any strong titles to appeal to the casual markets strongly. The numbers dropping is to be expected with two systems trying to cut into their casual market, and a half billion dollar budget being used from one of them to do it.

Problem is neither of the competitors have a strong enough line up to keep these audiences happy in the market they shop for. I see a drop this year correlating to the system launches, but a resurgence occurring in spring in numbers when 3ds hits market. At which point they have an exclusive market to themselves locked in again ( the 3d market).

I see their main threat being Apple since their handheld devices are starting to get some serious titles, and are considered trendier to have.

Overall, Nintendo is fine. A lot of you just hope to see them fail because your backing a different horse for various reasons of your own.

 

[Sadist]

Yes, people need to recognize that saying the Wii has declined in sales in just pure fact; it has. Is this understandable? Yes. The Wii was going to decline. Nothing maintains that level of sales forever; it's unrealistic.

So yes, there will be no WiiHD and Nintendo is not doomed.

Pretty much.

I just really hate all the guys "OMG WII IS DOOMED WE NEED WII HD BY 2011" squawking and shit. My most realistic guess would be that the Wii will be in it's last full year next year and they'll have some software ready to keep some interest, with Skyward Sword slated as the big holiday title. It won't be as good as 2010, but it will have it's moments.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Is Skyward Sword for holiday?

I thought someone said Spring.

 

[jufonuk]

How can you be a hardcore fanboy only at times?

because I have a 360 and like playing that at times and a Dreamcast

the rest of the time I am batman

 

[Tutomos]

Is Nintendo's next home console going to be a shoo-in as the most successful console next gen like some have thought here ? I have a hard time seeing them having this kind of success again. I know they would love to have GTA and COD on their next console. I think even if their console is still not as powerful as the other guys, as long as their online infrastructure is on par, they can have those games.

 

[Sadist]

Is Skyward Sword for holiday?

I thought someone said Spring.

Yeah that's the plan according to Nintendo.

But a Zelda game without delays? Ha.

 

[turnbuckle]

It's been FOUR years people (pretty much an entire console lifespan) and it's merely "declining". This is completely normal, nothing is out of the ordinary. This happened with pretty much ever console in the previous generation. The only reason why the 360 and PS3 aren't seeing such sharp decline is probably because they weren't at the $199 price barrier.


:lol Talk about straw grasping.

So fixing for accuracy is grasping at straws?

What about the $199 price barrier makes those consoles less likely to decline than the Wii? The Wii's descent started before it was $199 and the 360 had a $199 model 2 years ago. The only reason the 360 and PS3 aren't having as sharp of declines is because they didn't have as far to fall, though that doesn't explain why the ps3 and 360 have been overall more resilient unless the argument of "everybody already has one" is now being applied to the Wii.

And I really am confused by anyone who might get defensive about the Wii's sales faltering while at the same time bringing up the legitimate point that "consoles can't sell at such a high rate for so long". Isn't making that point just a nicer way of saying the phenomenon is over? Phenomenon being over != Wii is dead, Nintendo should go 3rd party, or any other nonsense.

 

[onipex]

Is Nintendo's next home console going to be a shoo-in as the most successful console next gen like some have thought here ? I have a hard time seeing them having this kind of success again. I know they would love to have GTA and COD on their next console. I think even if their console is still not as powerful as the other guys, as long as their online infrastructure is on par, they can have those games.

No console is a "shoo-in". If Nintendo does launch a new home console in a year or two and can get starting support like the 3DS has then they could force Sony and Microsoft to either react earlier than they want or caused them to be too late jumping in.

I think Nintendo is better off focusing on the 3DS and lauchning more motion plus software for the Wii ,as well as bringing over Xenoblade , Zangeki No Reginleiv , and The Last Story.

 

[Sadist]

Give me Fatal Frame doublepack

:/

 

[onipex]

Give me Fatal Frame doublepack

:/

Yeah, this too.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Actually, one of the best possible results of the Wii declining in America might be that it could light a fire under NOA's ass to get localizing some riskier titles in hopes of stemming the tide.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Hopefully, they already said they'd bring over imports for NDS.

I think Zelda will be delayed to Holiday 2011 and DQ X in 2012. Could it be that both could be "enhanced" for Wii's successor?

Again though...what's everyone's opinion on Wii's successor: evolution or revolution?

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Next gen will be nothing more then an evolutionary generation.

A refinement of the HD and motion controller generation.

 

[chespace]

The phenomenon is over.

Doesn't mean the Wii business is dead, however.

They just need to adjust their forecast accordingly to account for the saturation.

 

[wrowa]

Is Skyward Sword for holiday?

I thought someone said Spring.

It's pretty much guaranteed that Skyward Sword will slip into the holiday season, since Nintendo announced that they are planning to release OoT 3D in Spring.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Anyone else?

I think there will be something new beyond just a refined WiiMote/visuals/online. You could argue that 3DS is another revolution since it has a 3D screen.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Hopefully, they already said they'd bring over imports for NDS.

I think Zelda will be delayed to Holiday 2011 and DQ X in 2012. Could it be that both could be "enhanced" for Wii's successor?

Again though...what's everyone's opinion on Wii's successor: evolution or revolution?

Evolution.

And DQX in 2012? Not a hope, and there won't be any "enhancements" - the next home console from Nintendo is very, very unlikely to be backwards-compatible, and a DQ game isn't going to get shifted to a just-launched system over an established platform with a large userbase.

Unless something has really shifted behind the scenes, I'm betting on DQX for 2011 to see the Wii out before its successor arrives in late 2011/early 2012.

 

[wind_steaker]

It's pretty much guaranteed that Skyward Sword will slip into the holiday season, since Nintendo announced that they are planning to release OoT 3D in Spring.

I dunno, Galaxy 2 is one of their big games this holiday...

As for those wanting a superior version on Wii 2, I imagine it'll play the same disc in HD...

 

[DrGAKMAN]

Evolution.

And DQX in 2012? Not a hope, and there won't be any "enhancements" - the next home console from Nintendo is very, very unlikely to be backwards-compatible, and a DQ game isn't going to get shifted to a just-launched system over an established platform with a large userbase.

Unless something has really shifted behind the scenes, I'm betting on DQX for 2011 to see the Wii out before its successor arrives in late 2011/early 2012.

Well many would argue against you saying Wii's successor won't be BC. I suggested it once (when I said the next system would be so different that it wouldn't use discs and be another a 3RD Pillar) and lost a pinky for it.

We've seen/heard nothing of DQ X so I'm thinking 2012. And Wii's successor...no way will it be 2011 unless it's a bitty evolutionary bump.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

So fixing for accuracy is grasping at straws?

Being honest both of the posts didn't make sense.

First of comparing gaming market this generation to 20 years or + ago doesn't make much sense. The gaming market today is widely different than back then as launching a console use to be merely a fraction of todays cost.

Second off, it would be best to start comparing systems that were not only successful, but reached further than one region. Yes the PC Engine was a success in Japan...but not anywhere else. The fact that Nintendo didn't bother to respond to this in the west proves this. And yes the Genesis launched in North America in 1989...but wasn't a mass market product (or at the very least anything to make Nintendo fearful). It wasn't until 1991 that the Genesis started playing in the big leagues, and the system was in no way, shape, or form a success in Japan. It isn't like today in which if any of the big 3 launches an entirely new system, it's a mass marker success right off the bat. So in reality that timeline is (going by North America is your 1999 128-bit age post seems to indicate) 1991 to...

1995. That's when the Playstation was released. Yes the Saturn predated it was but that bombed everywhere but Japan where it found mediocre success. So that's a total of 4 years so far of mass market consoles.

After the first 3D era, the Playstation 2 (2000) was the first console to start the next generation. Yes there was the Dreamcast but it bombed. I'm sorry SEGA fans but just because a console was good doesn't mean it was successful. So there you have 1995 to 2000. Five years.

Finally there was the Xbox 360 released in 2005. So 2000 - 2005, once again five years.

So so far that's 4 for 16-bit, 5 for first 3D age, and 5 for the previous generation. It doesn't make sense to include systems that weren't successful, and it doesn't make too much sense to include systems that were only (mildly) successful in one region. But even if you'd include the latter that would be five years for the 16-bit era, and five (technically five years and three months) for the Playstation 2.

This generation started with the Xbox 360 launch in 2005. It's currently 2010, five years later and no new system is coming out this year. The absolute earliest a new console can be released is Holiday 2011, so by default this will have to be the longest generation.

What about the $199 price barrier makes those consoles less likely to decline than the Wii? The Wii's descent started before it was $199 and the 360 had a $199 model 2 years ago.

Yes the 360 had a $199, the shitty tard pack nobody wanted. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Xbox 360 and the Playstation 3 (especially) started off at a higher price and thus took longer to have desirable products reach the mass market price of $199/$299 (yes I know I said $199 before, I admit that but it's widely considered that $199 - 299 are the normal prices for consoles as history has shown). The result of this is that a lot of people who wanted these products but couldn't afford them can get them. The Wii on the other hand has been at consumer entry price since launch.

The only reason the 360 and PS3 aren't having as sharp of declines is because they didn't have as far to fall

The 360 is gaining, not falling. But still good point.

Phenomenon being over != Wii is dead

Unfortunately that's what many people in this thread are indicating.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Well many would argue against you saying Wii's successor won't be BC. I suggested it once (when I said the next system would be so different that it wouldn't use discs and be another a 3RD Pillar) and lost a pinky for it.

We've seen/heard nothing of DQ X so I'm thinking 2012. And Wii's successor...no way will it be 2011 unless it's a bitty evolutionary bump.

It's unlikely to be BC because:

-- Unlike Wii, it isn't going to be basically a turbo-charged GameCube, so no "free" BC
-- It's unlikely to be powerful enough to run Wii/GameCube games smoothly and problem-free through brute software emulation

2011 for a Wii successor is just about do-able, but with the slipping release date of the 3DS it is perhaps unlikely. I'd bow to the experts here, but I think Nintendo could put together something superior to a PS3/360-class system for around the $250-299 mark and have it out in time for this Winter.

We've not seen anything of DQX, but we're two years on from its announcement (and over a year on from DQIX's launch in Japan) and there's plenty of time to do a proper unveiling and launch for late-2011.

 

[Woffls]

Honestly, if Zelda is delayed until Fall 2011 then I wouldn't mind. 3DS will take up enough time as it is, not to mention all the games that have been avoiding CodBlops for a few months. That and Kirby isn't out yet over here

 

[ryan-ts]

Honestly, if Zelda is delayed until Fall 2011 then I wouldn't mind. 3DS will take up enough time as it is, not to mention all the games that have been avoiding CodBlops for a few months. That and Kirby isn't out yet over here

It wouldn't be delayed as there's no release date just some general comments from Miyamoto.

 

[Woffls]

Well you know what I mean. Everyone assumes it's Spring, so that turns into the expected release date despite nobody have actually said anything about it. Unless it was suggested for 2010 at some point then put back? I can't remember.

 

[antonz]

Well you know what I mean. Everyone assumes it's Spring, so that turns into the expected release date despite nobody have actually said anything about it. Unless it was suggested for 2010 at some point then put back? I can't remember.

Zelda was touted as a title coming in 2010 at one point for sure though being a Zelda title its expected that it wont reach the original window

 

[Amir0x]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

 

[Drkirby]

Yeah that's the plan according to Nintendo.

But a Zelda game without delays? Ha.

I thought it was Winter, people seem to always over look that Winter doesn't end till March.

 

[antonz]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

I think a Spring cut to 150 and a refocusing on the brand while the 3DS is taking the headlines could be good. If Wii2 is 2012 then cut it to 99 after the holidays 2011 or just before depending on slowdowns etc

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

Actually, one of the best possible results of the Wii declining in America might be that it could light a fire under NOA's ass to get localizing some riskier titles in hopes of stemming the tide.

because that worked so well for all those other titles on the market?


even Enslaved, and that might be the very definition of 'casual' from a 'hardcore' perspective.
(which is like saying that casuals like bad games, which they usually don't. Unless it says Call of Duty on the front. Then, sadly, the mob does like them. Mobs can be smart, but not all the time)

 

[dragonfart28]

All they need is a price drop to $150 and market: "Buy a peripheral or a whole system for the same price?"

 

[Somnid]

It's certainly phasing out of superstar status. This year doesn't seem to have the umph needed to really push it but maybe DCKR might help things. With Wii Party and Kirby posting ho-hum numbers it's hard to read. Continued sales isn't going to happen with price cuts and rebranding though. Maybe some sales bumps. I don't think Zelda is going to help that much either. They need a new social phenomenon, Wii Relax might hit that otherwise from here Wii might just wind down.

If I were Sony or MS I'd be afraid of the later. Nothing is going to punch a hole in their longevity plans like the market leader calling next-gen.

 

[Gram Negative Cocci]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

I don't think this will work. They essentially have to release a string of desirable 'fresh' concepts like they did early on in the system's life. Just Dance, terribleness aside, is doing so well because it capitalised on a hole in the software lineup. Beforehand Nintendo was hitting the marks with their sports, fitness, and party games. Those concepts are tired now and the momentum was lost as a result. I guess you could ask what popular lifestyle concepts they haven't exploited yet.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

It's unlikely to be BC because:

-- Unlike Wii, it isn't going to be basically a turbo-charged GameCube, so no "free" BC
-- It's unlikely to be powerful enough to run Wii/GameCube games smoothly and problem-free through brute software emulation

I can't believe no one is jumping on you for this. Most are under the convictions that it WILL have B/C. When I suggested it in the past (suggesting a console/portable hybrid that wouldn't play discs) I was certainly blasted since everyone is so absulutly sure it will have B/C. I had reasons beyond what I'll talk about here, but since that console/portable hybrid is dead in my mind for now I had conceded that it would be B/C afterall.

I think your reasons for no B/C are assuming too much. While I'm not expecting Wii's successor to be a PS4/X720-killer I do think it should be able to emulate Wii games...and if not, then they certainly could put an old Wii chip in there to help that.

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

I agree with the nostalgia/retro angle certainly. It's too bad there's so much Zelda saturation next year 'cos I'm totally with you on releasing something like 4 Swords on Wii...it'd be like NSMBros. all over again (it could be splitscreen and/or use the NDS WiFi for seperate screens). While they're at it they should get on a 4 player (retro 2D side-scroller) Metroid bounty hunter type game where players race through a maze to a bounty and work either competitivly or co-operatively. Counter-co-operative games on the calliber of Balloon Fight with 4 players would be amazing fun! Both these suggestions could help bring Zelda & Metroid back into legitimacy again.

Another suggestion. Yamauchi wanted Nintendo to get involved in movies...while some disagree with that I really do think it'd be an outlet for some of the developers to "keep up" with new animation/rendering/visual techniques all while fleshing out their want for story/movies without muddying up a game to do it. This would be helpful in many ways for Nintendo:
-as suggested above, it could be an side "outlet" so that there isn't too much story/movies in Nintendo's games
-make more legitimate video game movies (why should Hollywood ruin it or profit from it?)
-Nintendo could collaborate with other game companies (like, say Square or CAPCOM) who want to make movies based on their franchises and this could help influence future support on the gaming side too (certainly helped Sony in the past)
-would help advertise games the movies are based on
-extra source of revenue for Nintendo
-3DS versions of the movie could certainly be a big sell for the movies, the 3DS and for other companies to bring their 3D content to it as well

 

[Mooreberg]

They've sold more hardware than anyone, so there isn't really a problem there even with the recent slowdown. Plus they still got an eventual $149 MSRP to fall back on next year.

If there is a problem, it is that there is a ton of Wii hardware out there right now that they don't seem to be connecting with in terms of recent software releases. Maybe DKCR will reverse the trend, but if not, than it would be a good indication that a large number of Wii owners stopped buying games and are not coming back. It would be strange for well reviewed games getting published by Nintendo to start getting the cold shoulder the way a lot of well reviewed third party games have.

The lineup this holiday season seems kind of barren, but Microsoft and Sony aren't publishing a whole lot of amazing games this season either.

 

[aeolist]

I think it's funny that Microsoft was able to distort the market enough by entering it with no concern about profitability that they were able to convince Sony to tag along and then have everyone blame Nintendo for not subsidizing an unsustainable business model so that third parties would put out sub-par ports for their system.

Wait did I say funny? I mean horrible.

 

[sfried]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or serious.

 

[Ninja Moomin]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

Just quoting this for a new page - it's the only logical answer to this thread.

 

[marc^o^]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

This. And start next gen in Q4 2011.

 

[Mael]

I think Wii should drop to $150 and refocus on 'nostalgia' offerings instead of specifically hardcore offerings. Think they should do a classic old-school Zelda style game and call it NEW! ZELDA: THE ADVENTURES OF LINK, for example.

And I wanted to skip that discussion entirely...
I disagree on the pricecut, seriously it will not do anything at all that a release of a good game can't do better.
On the other part, that's actually more sensible than the whole Core refocus they botched this year.

 

[radioheadrule83]

I don't want them to do this, as I enjoy Homebrew --

but if I were Nintendo, I would release software that plays just fine when pirated, but at some point, mid-way into the game(s) - the software should suddenly exploit the same loopholes as homebrew hacks to check for signs of dubious activity and if necessary - fix Boot 1 & Boot 2, and update all IOS' -- effectively closing the loopholes currently enabling piracy. Throw a disclaimer in the instruction booklets that no-one ever reads (but should). Even if consoles are inadvertantly bricked, the cost of fixing or replacing those consoles won't be as astronomical as the money they are probably losing through piracy.

They should drop the price of the console as soon as is feasible. Some of the peripherals are too expensive as well... but obviously that's a large part of how they make a profit.

I wouldn't mind seeing them release a Wii-Lite, but I do hope they announce Wii HD at E3 2011 for 2012 release.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This. And start next gen in Q4 2011.

Why would we start next gen? It's all about retro, baby!

 

[TekkenMaster]

I hope Skyward Sword is delayed to be a Wii 2 launch title. Keep it off Wii entirely and rebuild the entire game (character models, engine, graphic effects, etc) for the Wii's successor.

I don't want another situation where a mainline Zelda is released and looks outdated the day it comes out.

 

[Lard]

If the way the OP means I think they mean, then no, Nintendo is not doomed and people are not "abandoning" Nintendo.

If he means Nintendo has (nearly) reached saturation for the market, then maybe.

 

[hatchx]

All we had to do to declare the Wii was dead was:

- wait 4.5 years, almost the length of an entire console generation
- desperately copy everything that the Wii did
- have third parties desperately refuse to develop or respectably advertise any compelling software for it for anyone outside of children or ultra-niche core gamers
- have many of those third parties go bankrupt, die out or suffer spectacular layoffs
- extend the current console generation an additional [x] years as a function of any number of tacked-on motion or media features and redesigns (3D glasses! motion control/motion cameras! ESPN! Facebook! Twitter! last.fm! Netflix! Slim console!)
- have the global economy meltdown


All this, and the Wii still has an insurmountable global lead...and it still hasn't cut it's price negligibly past $189 or released multiple colors yet (in a non-limited/special edition fashion).

Well, I guess the HD twins won!

Truth.

Also not understanding the attitude wii doesn't have a strong holiday. Donkey Kong, Epic Mickey, and Goldeneye are three big exclusives, 2 or which are third party.

 

[Mojojo]

Anyone else?

I think there will be something new beyond just a refined WiiMote/visuals/online. You could argue that 3DS is another revolution since it has a 3D screen.

Crazy as it sound, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo was looking at a BCI interface for its next system. It will be super gimmicky and mixed with the wiimote +, but it could have some fun applications in games.
The technology is here, and cheap.

Recently a number of companies have scaled back medical grade EEG technology (and in one case, NeuroSky, rebuilt the technology from the ground up) to create inexpensive BCIs. This technology has been built into toys and gaming devices; some of these toys have been extremely commercially successful like the NeuroSky and Mattel MindFlex.

source Wikipedia
http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-09-06/news/17205965_1_headset-brain-control-mass-market
http://**********.com/viewstory.php?id=36246

"With Super Wii, harness the power of your Miind!"

 

[rpmurphy]

How many more generations until we get a VR console?

 

[1-D_FTW]

I hope Skyward Sword is delayed to be a Wii 2 launch title. Keep it off Wii entirely and rebuild the entire game (character models, engine, graphic effects, etc) for the Wii's successor.

I don't want another situation where a mainline Zelda is released and looks outdated the day it comes out.

I'm sure it'll look great in the emulator. I wouldn't discount how good that game would look at 1080P, 60fps, 8X AA/16X AF. And since it would look excellent at those specs, I wouldn't expect Nintendo to really push their engines much beyond that next gen. It'll still look great and wouldn't increase costs exponentially.

 

[hatchx]

I'm sure it'll look great in the emulator. I wouldn't discount how good that game would look at 1080P, 60fps, 8X AA/16X AF. And since it would look excellent at those specs, I wouldn't expect Nintendo to really push their engines much beyond that next gen. It'll still look great and wouldn't increase costs exponentially.

Are you suggesting wii 2 will have an emulator to download wii games in upscaled HD?