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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

Javin98

Banned
Yeeeesh off to a rough start this year. Didn't even make the top 50 -_-

FFS Javin was only ~10k units different from my PS4 prediction. It's crazy how much of a difference that made.
Haha, hey, even though my PS4 prediction is 10K higher, it's still quite a bit off from the actual numbers. Great to see our XB1 predictions so close though. :p The PS4 just blew everyone's expectations away while the XB1.... Well, it dragged most of our predictions down.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Haha, hey, even though my PS4 prediction is 10K higher, it's still quite a bit off from the actual numbers. :p The PS4 just blew everyone's expectations away while the XB1.... Well, it dragged most of our predictions down.

Yep... I wonder what my actual points were this month. Can't believe that I started off out of the top 50 T_T
 

Javin98

Banned
Yep... I wonder what my actual points were this month. Can't held the I started off out of the top 50 T_T
To be fair, January was a pretty tough month to predict. I bet the question in most of our heads were "Will both consoles sell poorly after the amazing holiday season?" and the predictions reflect this. Well, on the bright side, February should be easier to predict. And after seeing the XB1 sales in January, I think it's safe for most of us to predict that it will be down YoY.
 

Elios83

Member
NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2016

Units

1. Twinsanity - 37,000
2. Tubie - 45,000
2. biglittleps - 45,000
4. EventHorizon - 47,000
5. Stanng243 - 48,000
6. Elandyll - 50,000
6. pitseleh - 50,000
8. Raylan - 52,000
9. Fat4all - 55,000
10. slavesnyder - 56,000
11. Raist - 58,000
12. FullMetaltech - 59,000
12. Hydrargyrus - 59,000
12. Toli08 - 59,000
15. 1st Course - 60,000
15. ConfusedGamer - 60,000
15. Maniel - 60,000
15. gtj1092 - 60,000
19. Javin98 - 62,000
19. freefornow - 62,000
21. KillerMan91 - 63,000
22. jbluzb - 64,256
23. 5Twist - 65,000
23. Elios83 - 65,000
23. Fdkn - 65,000
23. Jamix012 - 65,000
23. Loris146 - 65,000
23. andy_lhc - 65,000
23. anexanhume - 65,000
30. GAF_Agg - 66,900
31. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 67,000
31. Tarrin - 67,000
33. travisbickle - 68,000
33. wachie - 68,000
35. Rymuth - 69,000
36. Cornbread78 - 70,000
36. Darth Smurf X - 70,000
36. DieH@rd - 70,000
36. Nouzka - 70,000
36. daniel77733 - 70,000
36. orfax - 70,000
36. theprodigy - 70,000
43. Tratorn - 70,852
44. noobie - 72,000
45. Opt1kon_ - 73,000
45. allan-bh - 73,000
47. AmaterasuOni - 74,000
47. Krakn3Dfx - 74,000
47. robo - 74,000
50. BlackBuzzard - 75,000
50. Crimson_Gold - 75,000
50. Megadragon15 - 75,000
50. RED_RING - 75,000
50. Rand6 - 75,000
50. Sterok - 75,000
50. madp0k - 75,000
57. ZachzOOming - 76,000
57. archnemesis - 76,000
57. jayu26 - 76,000
60. ascii42 - 77,000
61. Danthrax - 78,000
62. astrogamer - 79,000
63. GribbleGrunger - 80,000
63. Hammer24 - 80,000
63. OleGunner - 80,000
63. Shizza - 80,000
67. Final Verdict - 82,000
67. skedar897 - 82,000
69. Bruno MB - 83,000
69. TheCarrotKiller - 83,000
71. mejin - 84,000
72. Kill3r7 - 85,000
72. The Last One - 85,000
72. harrisk954 - 85,000
72. jjonez18 - 85,000
76. Tsosie - 86,000
76. ferrasvansen - 86,000
78. RexNovis - 87,000
79. Kayant - 89,000
79. Xumbrega - 89,000
81. Bgamer90 - 90,000
81. Conduit - 90,000
81. Primethius - 90,000
81. Welfare - 90,000
81. anothertech - 90,000
81. prag16 - 90,000
87. Chobel - 91,000
87. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 91,000
89. donny2112 - 92,000
89. panda-zebra - 92,000
91. Ombala - 94,000
92. Apt101 - 95,000
92. Bioshocker - 95,000
94. Jigorath - 97,000
95. Cow Goes Moo - 100,000
95. DriftingSpirit - 100,000
95. Pillville - 100,000
95. Possumowner - 100,000
99. jroc74 - 105,000
100. Asd202 - 110,000
101. madstarr12 - 114,000
102. Pachter - 115,000
103. Vena - 120,000
104. foxbeldin - 129,000
105. Jack The Nipper - 142,000
106. ghost4soul - 160,000
107. CorporateClown - 242,000
108. Prototype Viktor - 284,300


Points
Code:
     January 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (1/1)
01.  biglittleps            117.54   biglittleps              117.54
02.  Tubie                  116.09   Tubie                    116.09
03.  Twinsanity             112.42   Twinsanity               112.42
04.  EventHorizon           110.83   EventHorizon             110.83
05.  Raylan                 105.92   Raylan                   105.92
06.  Stanng243              104.94   Stanng243                104.94
07.  Elandyll               104.59   Elandyll                 104.59
08.  pitseleh               102.75   pitseleh                 102.75
09.  slavesnyder            102.21   slavesnyder              102.21
10.  1st Course             100.52   1st Course               100.52
11.  Fat4all                100.49   Fat4all                  100.49
12.  Jamix012               100.17   Jamix012                 100.17
13.  ConfusedGamer           99.92   ConfusedGamer             99.92
14.  FullMetaltech           99.22   FullMetaltech             99.22
15.  Maniel                  99.07   Maniel                    99.07
16.  Raist                   98.78   Raist                     98.78
17.  freefornow              98.50   freefornow                98.50
18.  travisbickle            98.36   travisbickle              98.36
19.  Toli08                  98.22   Toli08                    98.22
20.  jbluzb                  98.00   jbluzb                    98.00
21.  theprodigy              97.96   theprodigy                97.96
22.  Javin98                 97.95   Javin98                   97.95
23.  Tratorn                 97.85   Tratorn                   97.85
24.  Megadragon15            97.81   Rymuth                    97.81
25.  Rymuth                  97.81   Megadragon15              97.81
26.  DieH@rd                 97.61   DieH@rd                   97.61
27.  Darth Smurf X           97.42   Darth Smurf X             97.42
28.  wachie                  97.39   wachie                    97.39
29.  ZachzOOming             97.20   ZachzOOming               97.20
30.  panda-zebra             97.10   panda-zebra               97.10
31.  gtj1092                 97.03   gtj1092                   97.03
32.  andy_lhc                96.88   andy_lhc                  96.88
33.  Loris146                96.71   Loris146                  96.71
34.  allan-bh                96.68   allan-bh                  96.68
35.  Fdkn                    96.55   Fdkn                      96.55
36.  noobie                  96.54   noobie                    96.54
37.  Hammer24                96.53   Hammer24                  96.53
38.  Tarrin                  96.45   Tarrin                    96.45
39.  Nouzka                  96.32   Nouzka                    96.32
40.  astrogamer              96.31   astrogamer                96.31
41.  KillerMan91             96.24   KillerMan91               96.24
42.  ascii42                 96.21   ascii42                   96.21
43.  anexanhume              95.93   anexanhume                95.93
44.  orfax                   95.76   orfax                     95.76
45.  archnemesis             95.62   Kayant                    95.62
46.  Kayant                  95.62   archnemesis               95.62
47.  skedar897               95.37   skedar897                 95.37
48.  BlackBuzzard            95.24   BlackBuzzard              95.24
49.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      94.94   GifGafIsTheBestGaf        94.94
50.  Hydrargyrus             94.83   Hydrargyrus               94.83

Congratulations, Twinsanity by Units and biglittleps by Points! :D

I'm going to spot check some results, but feel free to double-check your own results, since the calculation was modified this month. Points per system (3 of them) were 33.333 (just 3 decimal points used). Thanks!

Edit:
For reference, here's the Top 10 Units Bonus for your calculations, too. Checked Twinsanity and biglittleps, and both looked good to me.
1. 17
2. 13
3. 11
4. 9
5. 7
6. 5
7. 4
8. 3
9. 2
10. 1

Ummm I was n. 23 in units and nowhere in the points top 50?
 

freefornow

Member
Congrats to Twinsanity and biglittleps. Thanks to donny2112 for number crunching.

To steal a tag from a regular salesgaf poster "I'm never underestimating the PS4 again"!!
 
Ahh 63rd overall -_-

My XB1 prediction was too optimistic, the thing tanked harder than I expected in January.

PS4/Wii U predictions were kind of close to the actual numbers so I'm pleased there.

Thanks, what did I win though!?

My PS4 and xbone numbers were spot on at 228K/130K. I just underestimated Nintendo as usual.

Congrats guys!

Well done!

You win Gaf Gold, check your PM's :p
 

Apt101

Member
I actually guessed extremely close to the correct units for PS4 and XB1, but decided to change it at the last second. I just didn't think the PS4 would take it by so much. Had I kept them I would have had about a 10k difference. :(
 

donny2112

Member
Here's #51-100, if you want to see how far out of the Top 50 for the month you are in points. Remember that the lowest points month will be dropped with March's ranking, and the two lowest point months (or just missing months) will be dropped for the annual rankings.

Code:
51.  jayu26                  94.83
52.  madp0k                  94.70
53.  Cornbread78             94.63
54.  Kill3r7                 94.52
55.  AmaterasuOni            94.02
56.  Krakn3Dfx               93.96
57.  Pillville               93.95
58.  Rand6                   93.91
59.  GribbleGrunger          93.91
60.  RED_RING                93.91
61.  Opt1kon_                93.79
62.  5Twist                  93.71
63.  ferrasvansen            93.61
64.  Asd202                  93.46
65.  The Last One            93.40
66.  Final Verdict           93.39
67.  Sterok                  93.38
68.  Bruno MB                93.38
69.  mejin                   93.35
70.  daniel77733             93.20
71.  RexNovis                92.95
72.  TheCarrotKiller         92.49
73.  Elios83                 92.43
74.  robo                    92.39
75.  OleGunner               92.08
76.  Chobel                  91.62
77.  Primethius              91.56
78.  jjonez18                91.56
79.  Shizza                  91.00
80.  prag16                  91.00
81.  Jigorath                90.81
82.  madstarr12              90.80
83.  Cow Goes Moo            90.66
84.  Welfare                 90.35
85.  harrisk954              90.26
86.  Tsosie                  90.24
87.  donny2112               90.17
88.  Bgamer90                90.06
89.  Vena                    89.96
90.  DriftingSpirit          89.35
91.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     88.89
92.  jroc74                  88.60
93.  anothertech             88.44
94.  Crimson_Gold            88.43
95.  Apt101                  87.73
96.  Xumbrega                87.55
97.  Possumowner             87.53
98.  Ombala                  86.53
99.  Bioshocker              84.38
100. Pachter                 82.01
 
NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2016

Units

1. Twinsanity - 37,000
2. Tubie - 45,000
2. biglittleps - 45,000
4. EventHorizon - 47,000
5. Stanng243 - 48,000
6. Elandyll - 50,000
6. pitseleh - 50,000
8. Raylan - 52,000
9. Fat4all - 55,000
10. slavesnyder - 56,000
11. Raist - 58,000
12. FullMetaltech - 59,000
12. Hydrargyrus - 59,000
12. Toli08 - 59,000
15. 1st Course - 60,000
15. ConfusedGamer - 60,000
15. Maniel - 60,000
15. gtj1092 - 60,000
19. Javin98 - 62,000
19. freefornow - 62,000
21. KillerMan91 - 63,000
22. jbluzb - 64,256
23. 5Twist - 65,000
23. Elios83 - 65,000
23. Fdkn - 65,000
23. Jamix012 - 65,000
23. Loris146 - 65,000
23. andy_lhc - 65,000
23. anexanhume - 65,000
30. GAF_Agg - 66,900
31. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 67,000
31. Tarrin - 67,000
33. travisbickle - 68,000
33. wachie - 68,000
35. Rymuth - 69,000
36. Cornbread78 - 70,000
36. Darth Smurf X - 70,000
36. DieH@rd - 70,000
36. Nouzka - 70,000
36. daniel77733 - 70,000
36. orfax - 70,000
36. theprodigy - 70,000
43. Tratorn - 70,852
44. noobie - 72,000
45. Opt1kon_ - 73,000
45. allan-bh - 73,000
47. AmaterasuOni - 74,000
47. Krakn3Dfx - 74,000
47. robo - 74,000
50. BlackBuzzard - 75,000
50. Crimson_Gold - 75,000
50. Megadragon15 - 75,000
50. RED_RING - 75,000
50. Rand6 - 75,000
50. Sterok - 75,000
50. madp0k - 75,000
57. ZachzOOming - 76,000
57. archnemesis - 76,000
57. jayu26 - 76,000
60. ascii42 - 77,000
61. Danthrax - 78,000
62. astrogamer - 79,000
63. GribbleGrunger - 80,000
63. Hammer24 - 80,000
63. OleGunner - 80,000
63. Shizza - 80,000
67. Final Verdict - 82,000
67. skedar897 - 82,000
69. Bruno MB - 83,000
69. TheCarrotKiller - 83,000
71. mejin - 84,000
72. Kill3r7 - 85,000
72. The Last One - 85,000
72. harrisk954 - 85,000
72. jjonez18 - 85,000
76. Tsosie - 86,000
76. ferrasvansen - 86,000
78. RexNovis - 87,000
79. Kayant - 89,000
79. Xumbrega - 89,000
81. Bgamer90 - 90,000
81. Conduit - 90,000
81. Primethius - 90,000
81. Welfare - 90,000
81. anothertech - 90,000
81. prag16 - 90,000
87. Chobel - 91,000
87. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 91,000
89. donny2112 - 92,000
89. panda-zebra - 92,000
91. Ombala - 94,000
92. Apt101 - 95,000
92. Bioshocker - 95,000
94. Jigorath - 97,000
95. Cow Goes Moo - 100,000
95. DriftingSpirit - 100,000
95. Pillville - 100,000
95. Possumowner - 100,000
99. jroc74 - 105,000
100. Asd202 - 110,000
101. madstarr12 - 114,000
102. Pachter - 115,000
103. Vena - 120,000
104. foxbeldin - 129,000
105. Jack The Nipper - 142,000
106. ghost4soul - 160,000
107. CorporateClown - 242,000
108. Prototype Viktor - 284,300


Points
Code:
     January 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (1/1)
01.  biglittleps            117.54   biglittleps              117.54
02.  Tubie                  116.09   Tubie                    116.09
03.  Twinsanity             112.42   Twinsanity               112.42
04.  EventHorizon           110.83   EventHorizon             110.83
05.  Raylan                 105.92   Raylan                   105.92
06.  Stanng243              104.94   Stanng243                104.94
07.  Elandyll               104.59   Elandyll                 104.59
08.  pitseleh               102.75   pitseleh                 102.75
09.  slavesnyder            102.21   slavesnyder              102.21
10.  1st Course             100.52   1st Course               100.52
11.  Fat4all                100.49   Fat4all                  100.49
12.  Jamix012               100.17   Jamix012                 100.17
13.  ConfusedGamer           99.92   ConfusedGamer             99.92
14.  FullMetaltech           99.22   FullMetaltech             99.22
15.  Maniel                  99.07   Maniel                    99.07
16.  Raist                   98.78   Raist                     98.78
17.  freefornow              98.50   freefornow                98.50
18.  travisbickle            98.36   travisbickle              98.36
19.  Toli08                  98.22   Toli08                    98.22
20.  jbluzb                  98.00   jbluzb                    98.00
21.  theprodigy              97.96   theprodigy                97.96
22.  Javin98                 97.95   Javin98                   97.95
23.  Tratorn                 97.85   Tratorn                   97.85
24.  Megadragon15            97.81   Rymuth                    97.81
25.  Rymuth                  97.81   Megadragon15              97.81
26.  DieH@rd                 97.61   DieH@rd                   97.61
27.  Darth Smurf X           97.42   Darth Smurf X             97.42
28.  wachie                  97.39   wachie                    97.39
29.  ZachzOOming             97.20   ZachzOOming               97.20
30.  panda-zebra             97.10   panda-zebra               97.10
31.  gtj1092                 97.03   gtj1092                   97.03
32.  andy_lhc                96.88   andy_lhc                  96.88
33.  Loris146                96.71   Loris146                  96.71
34.  allan-bh                96.68   allan-bh                  96.68
35.  Fdkn                    96.55   Fdkn                      96.55
36.  noobie                  96.54   noobie                    96.54
37.  Hammer24                96.53   Hammer24                  96.53
38.  Tarrin                  96.45   Tarrin                    96.45
39.  Nouzka                  96.32   Nouzka                    96.32
40.  astrogamer              96.31   astrogamer                96.31
41.  KillerMan91             96.24   KillerMan91               96.24
42.  ascii42                 96.21   ascii42                   96.21
43.  anexanhume              95.93   anexanhume                95.93
44.  orfax                   95.76   orfax                     95.76
45.  archnemesis             95.62   Kayant                    95.62
46.  Kayant                  95.62   archnemesis               95.62
47.  skedar897               95.37   skedar897                 95.37
48.  BlackBuzzard            95.24   BlackBuzzard              95.24
49.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      94.94   GifGafIsTheBestGaf        94.94
50.  Hydrargyrus             94.83   Hydrargyrus               94.83

Congratulations, Twinsanity by Units and biglittleps by Points! :D

I'm going to spot check some results, but feel free to double-check your own results, since the calculation was modified this month. Points per system (3 of them) were 33.333 (just 3 decimal points used). Thanks!

Edit:
For reference, here's the Top 10 Units Bonus for your calculations, too. Checked Twinsanity and biglittleps, and both looked good to me.
1. 17
2. 13
3. 11
4. 9
5. 7
6. 5
7. 4
8. 3
9. 2
10. 1

Really cool to see my name on top :)
 

Ombala

Member
Here's #51-100, if you want to see how far out of the Top 50 for the month you are in points. Remember that the lowest points month will be dropped with March's ranking, and the two lowest point months (or just missing months) will be dropped for the annual rankings.

Code:
51.  jayu26                  94.83
52.  madp0k                  94.70
53.  Cornbread78             94.63
54.  Kill3r7                 94.52
55.  AmaterasuOni            94.02
56.  Krakn3Dfx               93.96
57.  Pillville               93.95
58.  Rand6                   93.91
59.  GribbleGrunger          93.91
60.  RED_RING                93.91
61.  Opt1kon_                93.79
62.  5Twist                  93.71
63.  ferrasvansen            93.61
64.  Asd202                  93.46
65.  The Last One            93.40
66.  Final Verdict           93.39
67.  Sterok                  93.38
68.  Bruno MB                93.38
69.  mejin                   93.35
70.  daniel77733             93.20
71.  RexNovis                92.95
72.  TheCarrotKiller         92.49
73.  Elios83                 92.43
74.  robo                    92.39
75.  OleGunner               92.08
76.  Chobel                  91.62
77.  Primethius              91.56
78.  jjonez18                91.56
79.  Shizza                  91.00
80.  prag16                  91.00
81.  Jigorath                90.81
82.  madstarr12              90.80
83.  Cow Goes Moo            90.66
84.  Welfare                 90.35
85.  harrisk954              90.26
86.  Tsosie                  90.24
87.  donny2112               90.17
88.  Bgamer90                90.06
89.  Vena                    89.96
90.  DriftingSpirit          89.35
91.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     88.89
92.  jroc74                  88.60
93.  anothertech             88.44
94.  Crimson_Gold            88.43
95.  Apt101                  87.73
96.  Xumbrega                87.55
97.  Possumowner             87.53
98.  Ombala                  86.53
99.  Bioshocker              84.38
100. Pachter                 82.01
Now you are just twisting the knife.
Good to know this might not count tho.
 

Elios83

Member
Here's #51-100, if you want to see how far out of the Top 50 for the month you are in points. Remember that the lowest points month will be dropped with March's ranking, and the two lowest point months (or just missing months) will be dropped for the annual rankings.

Code:
51.  jayu26                  94.83
52.  madp0k                  94.70
53.  Cornbread78             94.63
54.  Kill3r7                 94.52
55.  AmaterasuOni            94.02
56.  Krakn3Dfx               93.96
57.  Pillville               93.95
58.  Rand6                   93.91
59.  GribbleGrunger          93.91
60.  RED_RING                93.91
61.  Opt1kon_                93.79
62.  5Twist                  93.71
63.  ferrasvansen            93.61
64.  Asd202                  93.46
65.  The Last One            93.40
66.  Final Verdict           93.39
67.  Sterok                  93.38
68.  Bruno MB                93.38
69.  mejin                   93.35
70.  daniel77733             93.20
71.  RexNovis                92.95
72.  TheCarrotKiller         92.49
73.  Elios83                 92.43
74.  robo                    92.39
75.  OleGunner               92.08
76.  Chobel                  91.62
77.  Primethius              91.56
78.  jjonez18                91.56
79.  Shizza                  91.00
80.  prag16                  91.00
81.  Jigorath                90.81
82.  madstarr12              90.80
83.  Cow Goes Moo            90.66
84.  Welfare                 90.35
85.  harrisk954              90.26
86.  Tsosie                  90.24
87.  donny2112               90.17
88.  Bgamer90                90.06
89.  Vena                    89.96
90.  DriftingSpirit          89.35
91.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     88.89
92.  jroc74                  88.60
93.  anothertech             88.44
94.  Crimson_Gold            88.43
95.  Apt101                  87.73
96.  Xumbrega                87.55
97.  Possumowner             87.53
98.  Ombala                  86.53
99.  Bioshocker              84.38
100. Pachter                 82.01

Thanks donny, I was wondering where I was.
I see that most people are very close, with decimals having an impact.
 
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