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March 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes April 9

donny2112

Member
What is it?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, April 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: February 26-March 31 (5 weeks, February was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: April 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000


Potential hardware impacting events in March:


February's Results - thanks to NPD, EviLore, Nirolak, and Nintendo

Hardware
Xbox 360 - 426K (-20.4%)
PlayStation 3 - 360K (-11%) (PR Math)
Nintendo 3DS - 262K
Nintendo Wii - 228K (-50%)
PlayStation Vita - 225K (PR Math)

February 2011 NPD thread
March 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
How spooky.

If you take the February Y/Y for the home consoles and multiply the Mar 2011 numbers you get:

[360] 344.7813084
[PS3] 326.0545906
[WII] 145.3186813

If you take the Feb 2011 -> Mar 2011 M/M and multiply the Feb 2012 numbers you get the exact same numbers.

-----

Anyway, my predictions:

[360] 345K
[3DS] 210K
[PS3] 326K
[PSV] 180K
[WII] 145K
 

UberTag

Member
Hmmm... I see a 5-week month.
I see Xbox 360 selling 426K in February.
I see a bunch of people having it sell less than that despite the extra week in March.

Hmmm...

Then again, that DID happen last year. Hmmm... some more.
After further reflection, I agree with you guys.
 
Hmmm... I see a 5-week month.
I see Xbox 360 selling 426K in February.
I see a bunch of people having it sell less than that despite the extra week in March.

Hmmm...

Then again, that DID happen last year. Hmmm... some more.
After further reflection, I agree with you guys.

Despite it having one more week, hardware sales tend to fall in March, with the exception of years when Easter is in March.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I would be shocked if the Vita number actually leaks. It's going to be super awful, the question is how much. Sony is going to blow up whoever leaks it out into the open.

The fact that you can go to Amazon right now and not only get a FEB, but get a FEB at a $20 discount? Yeaaaah.
The numbers can indeed be low, but that Amazon offer alone doesnt mean much though. If anything, it only shows that the 3G model is in less demand.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
It shows they never even sold the limited bundles, thats pretty rough
The limited bundle is 3G only in the US, and it cost $100 more than the WiFi only model. So that Amazon alone has this bundle available doesnt really mean much other than showing that the 3G model might sell bad.
 

Nemo

Will Eat Your Children
oooh, almost missed this month

[360] 360k
[3DS] 266k
[PS3] 260k
[PSV] 143k
[WII] 201k
 
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