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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
*offensive_nickname*
Banned
why do i always hear that...
makes me sad
sony is silence on infamous sales, too
ea is silence on titanfall sales, too
maybe they wait to surpass killzone shadowfall so they can announce the best selling next gen game*
* on a single platform
Why PS3 and WIU are not included in point result when PS3 and 360 are so close in the first two months of 2014 atleast?
ultratruman
Banned
Implying that Infamous Second son had more than a fraction of Titanfall's marketing or vested corporate interests is a little disingenuous.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
Any leaked nuggets on info from Geoff and the like? I feel like this is gonna be a historic March for sure.
Megadragon15
Member
[360] 140K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 110K
[PS4] 340K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 420K
[3DS] 150K
[PS3] 110K
[PS4] 340K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 420K
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
If Sony starts releasing numbers again, it would be a complete admittance that they only hide their numbers when they're under a certain threshold, or being beaten by their competitive. It would set a dangerous precedent moving forward. So for consistency, I imagine, they're sticking to this new policy.
Syphon Filter
Member
[XB1] 421k
[PS4] 350k
[360] 150k
[PS3] 120k
[WIU] 100k
[3DS] 100k
[PS4] 350k
[360] 150k
[PS3] 120k
[WIU] 100k
[3DS] 100k
Prototype Viktor
Member
I'm obviously going to change this late just a placeholder
[PS4] 390K
[XB1] 393K
[3DS] 94K
[360] 66K
[PS3] 51K
[WIU] 66K
[PS4] 390K
[XB1] 393K
[3DS] 94K
[360] 66K
[PS3] 51K
[WIU] 66K
Gonzo The Great
Banned
[360] 105k
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 260k
[PSV] 0k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 270k
Are people seriously expecting Infamous to bump the PS4 to above 400k?
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 90k
[PS4] 260k
[PSV] 0k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 270k
Are people seriously expecting Infamous to bump the PS4 to above 400k?
SwiftDeath
Member
I would imagine most people are expecting actual stock at the majority of brick and mortar stores to boost sales to above 400K while ISS might boost PS4 desirability by some small amount actually having steady and widespread supply should help sales of the PS4 this month
PS3's December making Nov+Dec ~= Wii U pushed it out. Only other considered change back in January (with December's results; don't like changing the setup once the year starts, if possible) would've been to pull 360 out of points, too, but wanted to keep 4 systems in points. The actual performance during the year wouldn't then change how it's handled during the year, but it does go into what to do with it for next year.
Exploratory
Banned
[360] 107K
[3DS] ???
[PS3] ???
[PS4] 310K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 340K
If XB1 can't beat PS4 this month then I doubt they'll beat them ever barring something crazy.
[3DS] ???
[PS3] ???
[PS4] 310K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 340K
If XB1 can't beat PS4 this month then I doubt they'll beat them ever barring something crazy.
Green Yoshi
Member
[PS4] 310K
[XB1] 375K
[3DS] 135K
[360] 56K
[PS3] 44K
[WIU] 64K
[XB1] 375K
[3DS] 135K
[360] 56K
[PS3] 44K
[WIU] 64K
Those wouldn't come until shortly before the results thread on NPD release day (April 17th).
*offensive_nickname*
Banned
do u really expect a drop in hardware sales for most platforms in a 5 over 4 week timeframe?
Scully Scully Scoo
Member
ps4 will sell more than x1 but both will be healthy. i expect around 450k for both
prag16
Banned
Damn, some people are predicting massive Titanfall bumps. I guess we'll see. PS4 should be up as well due to the 5 week month, but I doubt Infamous moved a crazy amount of consoles. Certainly not enough to keep it above xbone.
Wii U should be up slightly month to month due to the 5 week month, but I'd be shocked if it's up on a per week basis. DKCTF probably wasn't a huge system seller, but with basically no March releases of any kind, I don't think we can reasonably expect six figures.
Wii U should be up slightly month to month due to the 5 week month, but I'd be shocked if it's up on a per week basis. DKCTF probably wasn't a huge system seller, but with basically no March releases of any kind, I don't think we can reasonably expect six figures.
ethomaz
Banned
Infamous? Nope... supply.
TheRagnCajun
Member
I was initially expecting a huge Titanfall bump, but now I'm wondering how many people bought in early to play the beta...
Aquamarine
Member
I also expect a Wii U regression this month back to March 2013 norms. March and April are completely dead months for the Wii U retail-wise.
sjagolinzer
Member
[360] 123K
[3DS] 111K
[PS3] 115K
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 69K
[XB1] 420K
[3DS] 111K
[PS3] 115K
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 69K
[XB1] 420K
Nintendo could do something in early May with either a price drop, new color, or new bundle in the run-up to Mario Kart 8. Black Wii was an early May release, IIRC.
I Don't know why it would be interesting, the biggest multi plats will all be advertised as ps4 games. Assassins creed, destiny, batman and watchdogs. Together they will make sure ps4 stays ahead for the while year now. Then next year they can cut price to 350 and again be 100 dollars cheaper if they want to.
Dragonborn
Member
[360] 120K
[3DS] 205K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 120K
[XB1] 480K
I just don't see any way that the X1 doesn't take the month. Titanfall packed in for free, and the X1 had a de facto price cut for most of the month. If MS doesn't take this month, then I doubt they'll be able to keep up with the PS4, even if they reach price parity. This month is definitely make or break for MS, I don't see them having a shot at coming back on top from here on out (until an nice, big price cut). And even then, Sony's built the PS4 with quick price cut and adaptability in mind. They'll hold price advantage for the rest of this gen.
[3DS] 205K
[PS3] 100K
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 120K
[XB1] 480K
I just don't see any way that the X1 doesn't take the month. Titanfall packed in for free, and the X1 had a de facto price cut for most of the month. If MS doesn't take this month, then I doubt they'll be able to keep up with the PS4, even if they reach price parity. This month is definitely make or break for MS, I don't see them having a shot at coming back on top from here on out (until an nice, big price cut). And even then, Sony's built the PS4 with quick price cut and adaptability in mind. They'll hold price advantage for the rest of this gen.
Delusibeta
Banned
[360] 120k
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 100k
[PS4] 350k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 330k
I honestly think Titanfall would prove to be a bit of a damp squib in terms of moving Xbones, to be honest. Combined with Sony providing the biggest shipment of PS4s since launch means I'm going to give the nod to the PS4 this month, but in any case I wouldn't expect anywhere near a stomping victory for the Xbone.
[3DS] 160k
[PS3] 100k
[PS4] 350k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 330k
I honestly think Titanfall would prove to be a bit of a damp squib in terms of moving Xbones, to be honest. Combined with Sony providing the biggest shipment of PS4s since launch means I'm going to give the nod to the PS4 this month, but in any case I wouldn't expect anywhere near a stomping victory for the Xbone.
astrogamer
Member
[XB1] 340k
[PS4] 350k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 105k
[3DS] 140k
[WiiU] 70k
[PS4] 350k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 105k
[3DS] 140k
[WiiU] 70k
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
[360] 90k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 80k
[PS4] 275k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 290k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 80k
[PS4] 275k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 290k
michaelius
Banned
[PS4] 450k
[XB1] 400k
[3DS] 160k
[360] 100k
[PS3] 90K
[WIU] 70k
No I'm expecting finally arriving shipments of PS4 to push it above 400K.
[XB1] 400k
[3DS] 160k
[360] 100k
[PS3] 90K
[WIU] 70k
No I'm expecting finally arriving shipments of PS4 to push it above 400K.
airmangataosenai
Member
Probably the least confident I've been making a a prediction and will probably kill my average, but what the hell:
[360] 135K
[3DS] 175K
[PS3] 125K
[PS4] 400K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 350K
[360] 135K
[3DS] 175K
[PS3] 125K
[PS4] 400K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 350K
GoofsterStud
Member
Official price drop, it had a huge unofficial price drop with a free packin... Either way, if it doesn't completely dominate March it's embarrassing.
I don't think it well dominate but has a chance of edging ahead.\
It's a combination of the unusually large shipments, Metal Gear (PlayStation dominated brand), and Infamous.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
I think XboxOne will beat Ps4 in March, but it will be very close.
I could also imagine Ps4 winning if Sony managed to keep supply high.
[PS4] 350k
[XB1] 370k
[3DS] 140k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 80k
[WIU] 65k
I could also imagine Ps4 winning if Sony managed to keep supply high.
[PS4] 350k
[XB1] 370k
[3DS] 140k
[360] 110k
[PS3] 80k
[WIU] 65k
There are more than just (cross gen) multiplats coming out during the Fall.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
[PS4] 420k
[XB1] 405k
[3DS] 165k
[360] 115k
[PS3] 95k
[WIU] 75k
Think people overestimate the effect of Titanfall the silence from EA and MS is pretty telling, Blizzard had no problem saying RoS has already sold 2.7 million copies. So why wouldnt EA do this for Titanfall if it did so well. The hype for it also died pretty quickly after launch.
[XB1] 405k
[3DS] 165k
[360] 115k
[PS3] 95k
[WIU] 75k
Think people overestimate the effect of Titanfall the silence from EA and MS is pretty telling, Blizzard had no problem saying RoS has already sold 2.7 million copies. So why wouldnt EA do this for Titanfall if it did so well. The hype for it also died pretty quickly after launch.
Chobel
Member
You said the gap will continue to be around 300k until the fall, his point is that there's only multipats before the fall, and the big ones will be advertised for PS4, so the gap will widen (bigger than 300K before the fall).
SargerusBR
I love Pokken!
Console Sales:
[360] 120K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 105K
[PS4] 380k
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 400K
Game Sales:
1) Titanfall
2) Diablo III Reaper of Souls
3) Dark Souls II
4) Infamous Second Son
5) South Park Stick of Truth
6) Call of Duty Ghosts
7) Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes
8) Battlefield 4
9) Thief
10) Castlevania Lords of Shadow 2
[360] 120K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 105K
[PS4] 380k
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 400K
Game Sales:
1) Titanfall
2) Diablo III Reaper of Souls
3) Dark Souls II
4) Infamous Second Son
5) South Park Stick of Truth
6) Call of Duty Ghosts
7) Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes
8) Battlefield 4
9) Thief
10) Castlevania Lords of Shadow 2
geordiemp
Member
Well, looking at Amazon.com sales charts...
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_unv_vg_1_294940_1
and 2014 so far
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Looks as though Titanfall has massive attach rate, but on Amazon cant see much xbox one console sales, even current Ps4 is #4 and Titanfall bundle is # 22. The Titanfall bundle at # 22 on Amazon is same position as Xbox one 2014 YTD.
Appreciate amazon is only a single online supplier snapshot, but using it as a poll is a good an indicator I am going to get....
[Xbox one] 350 K
[Ps4] 520 K
I think people buy consoles for multiple game potential and not just 1 or 2 exclusives, and Ps4 being the stronger console for multiplats will win it again for Sony (next gen)
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_unv_vg_1_294940_1
and 2014 so far
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Looks as though Titanfall has massive attach rate, but on Amazon cant see much xbox one console sales, even current Ps4 is #4 and Titanfall bundle is # 22. The Titanfall bundle at # 22 on Amazon is same position as Xbox one 2014 YTD.
Appreciate amazon is only a single online supplier snapshot, but using it as a poll is a good an indicator I am going to get....
[Xbox one] 350 K
[Ps4] 520 K
I think people buy consoles for multiple game potential and not just 1 or 2 exclusives, and Ps4 being the stronger console for multiplats will win it again for Sony (next gen)
I don't think you are close either.
XB1 had 258K last month, which was a 4 week period. April NPD are five weeks. March is arguably just as strong, if not stronger, than February. 258K / 4 weeks * 5 weeks = 322.5K.
And with this 322.5K figure, it is assumed that March is just as strong as February. You aren't even taking into consideration that:
- March usually is a stronger month than February
- Titanfall launched
- XB1 prices as low as $399 (including a game)
These three factors will probably push it beyond 322.5K units sold.
Similar story for PS4:
- March usually is a stronger month than February
- inFAMOUS: Second Son launched
- Better supply than in February
Can't really see the gap being 400K+ before the Fall. The multiplats that are coming are well known as being multiplats on both last gen and current gen consoles. I feel that exclusive games are what's really going to make the gap change or, at least multiplats that are XB1/PS4 only. Fall is going to have a decent amount of games that fit those categories.
People used Amazon sales charts last month for a form of proof but yet the Xbox One sold around the same amount as the PS4.
The Xbox One is easier to find in stores than the PS4 which is probably having an impact on many people getting PS4s from online stores. That's not to say that amazon sales should be completely dismissed though.