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March 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

S

S¡mon

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
Can't really see the gap being 400K+ before the Fall. The multiplats that are coming are well known as being multiplats on both last gen and current gen consoles. I feel that exclusive games are what's going to make the gap change and those won't be coming until the Fall -- or, at least multiplats that are XB1/PS4 only.
Click to expand...
It is really impossible to tell. Who knows what happens between now and October. Microsoft can announce a price drop, new games, etc. that might close the gap. On the other hand, Sony indeed enjoys advertising deals for big multiplatform games like Watch_Dogs and Destiny which may draw in new customers. Additionally, Sony might still have 'The Last of Us: Definitive Edition' and #DRIVECLUB this summer.

It's really impossible to tell what is going to happen next, as there are so many variables in play.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
S¡mon;107258396 said:
It is really impossible to tell. Who knows what happens between now and October. Microsoft can announce a price drop, new games, etc. that might close the gap. On the other hand, Sony indeed enjoys advertising deals for big multiplatform games like Watch_Dogs and Destiny which may draw in new customers. Additionally, Sony might still have 'The Last of Us: Definitive Edition' and #DRIVECLUB this summer.

It's really impossible to tell what is going to happen next, as there are so many variables in play.
Click to expand...

Very true. What I feel/think may be different from what will actually happen.

Definitely going to be an interesting 2-3 months -- especially with many announcements coming this E3.
 
S

SeanR1221

Member
*offensive_nickname* said:
why do i always hear that...
makes me sad

sony is silence on infamous sales, too
ea is silence on titanfall sales, too


maybe they wait to surpass killzone shadowfall so they can announce the best selling next gen game*

* on a single platform
Click to expand...

Because Titanfall had a huge amount of hype leading up to release and now there's nothing?
 
Yoda

Yoda

Member
PS4: 301K
XB1: 350K
3DS: ~184K
360: 90K
PS3: 105K
Wii U: 99K

Wildcard it Titanfall obviously. It looks like a lot of X1's initial adpoters were the people the hype was appealing too. Its hard to serperate them from the people who bought the box within the launch period of the game. Due to the stealth price-cut and media frenzy the X1 should win handily. If the X1 doesn't manage to pull ahead in its best market with a month like this, then they should be very worried over at MS.
 
G

gtj1092

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Can't really see the gap being 400K+ before the Fall. The multiplats that are coming are well known as being multiplats on both last gen and current gen consoles. I feel that exclusive games are what's really going to make the gap change or, at least multiplats that are XB1/PS4 only. Fall is going to have a decent amount of games that fit those categories.



People used Amazon sales charts last month for a form of proof but yet the Xbox One sold around the same amount as the PS4.

The Xbox One is easier to find in stores than the PS4 which is probably having an impact on many people getting PS4s from online stores. That's not to say that amazon sales should be completely dismissed though.
Click to expand...

The only way for the gap not to grow is for xb1 and ps4 sell exactly the same for the rest of the year. I've seen nothing to indicate there is equal demand. People point to February as some shift. But the data points to a different picture. No one heralding the resurgence of the Xb1 seems to want to explain the data below. Every console increased in sales it wasn't some special event regulated to Xb1. The only console that didn't increase was Ps4 which was known to have supply issues in February.

Maybe you're right and sells will be equal for now on with the price drop and the bundles but I think there will still be a gap between them every month and as long as there is a gap the overall sales lead of the ps4 will increase.

SwiftDeath said:
So what I find an interesting comparison

Code: 
Platform: Jan Results -> Feb Results | Percentage Change MOM

PS4: 271K -> ~269K | [-.7%]
XB1: 141K -> 258K | [+83%]
3DS: ~97K -> ~151K - 156K | [+56% - +61%]
PS3: ~53.5K -> ~103K | [+92.5%]
Wii U: 49K -> 82.5K | [+68%]
360: ~48.5K -> 114K | [+135%]
Vita: <17K -> ~24K | [+41%]

Average Percentage Change MOM is +68% up from January, median is also +68% oddly enough

What in gods name happened in January? The numbers make it look like sales collapsed only for that month at this point. It's really odd.
Click to expand...
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
gtj1092 said:
The only way for the gap not to grow is for xb1 and ps4 sell exactly the same for the rest of the year. I've seen nothing to indicate there is equal demand. People point to February as some shift. But the data points to a different picture.
Click to expand...

Like I said in my prediction, I'm expecting the Xbox One to do better than the PS4 for March NPD thanks to Titanfall + the deals on the bundle. That will make the gap a bit smaller.

The gap could then slowly go back to where it is now in the upcoming months. Overall, I'm expecting both consoles to sell at least 200K in NPD each month from here on thanks to future games on top of the major games that came out last month -- Titanfall on Xbox One and Infamous for PS4.

I think that for the gap to really widen past 400K+ in NA, the PS4 would need to have another 2:1 month but with the 2:1 being huger than it was in January... something along the lines of 450K vs. 225K since (as I said above) I'm expecting both consoles to sell more than 200K each month for the rest of the year. Could that happen? We'll see...
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Everyone predicting a 100k+ win for the x1... Those numbers just don't seem to carry through to what we're seeing here in retail. It's been a great month for the x1, by comparison with the last two... definitely more sales. But the numbers some of you are posting boggle me. We've had extremely aggressive shipments from Sony, at least once a week, and their sales per week, per store exploded, except Maine(because sales in Maine are always slower, for both systems), and even there they've sold well. If anything, if Titanfall sold exceptionally well (it definitely sold well, don't get me wrong), then I can see maybe a 20k win for either of them, I don't want to put a stamp of victory for either.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Abdiel said:
Everyone predicting a 100k+ win for the x1... Those numbers just don't seem to carry through to what we're seeing here in retail. It's been a great month for the x1, by comparison with the last two... definitely more sales. But the numbers some of you are posting boggle me. We've had extremely aggressive shipments from Sony, at least once a week, and their sales per week, per store exploded, except Maine(because sales in Maine are always slower, for both systems), and even there they've sold well. If anything, if Titanfall sold exceptionally well (it definitely sold well, don't get me wrong), then I can see maybe a 20k win for either of them, I don't want to put a stamp of victory for either.
Click to expand...

We don't have that inside look into retailer stock. We have bestseller lists from Amazon (where TF is ahead of SS in game shipments and the bundle has done well) and Best Buy and MS's aggressive bundling and retailer price drops to go off of.
 
T

The Llama

Member
anexanhume said:
We don't have that inside look into retailer stock. We have bestseller lists from Amazon (where TF is ahead of SS in game shipments and the bundle has done well) and Best Buy and MS's aggressive bundling and retailer price drops to go off of.
Click to expand...

Abdiel works in retail though, and leaked some regional sales numbers for us in the past.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
anexanhume said:
We don't have that inside look into retailer stock. We have bestseller lists from Amazon (where TF is ahead of SS in game shipments and the bundle has done well) and Best Buy and MS's aggressive bundling and retailer price drops to go off of.
Click to expand...

But he actually does...that's why he said "what we're seeing here at retail."


anexanhume said:
Yeah, so what he says would sway my opinion. But most in this thread aren't going off of the knowledge he has, which is my point.
Click to expand...

His insight is a great example of a localized physical retailer channel check, because the unique sampling of stores that he has information for can be projected across the rest of the USA.

So yes, it's always a good idea to take into consideration these kind of personal accounts.

This kind of information is way more accurate than the few channel checks Mr. Pachter performs, for example.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Aquamarine said:
But he actually does...that's why he said "what we're seeing here at retail."
Click to expand...

Sorry, I guess I worded my post poorly. I mean the collective "We" as in those in this thread, including myself, that are predicting XB1 outselling PS4.

In light of his post, I'll probably come back later and revise down my XB1 total before the deadline. We sometimes get a few more tidbits between now and then.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
mcrommert said:
I'm going to go a little off the reservation :)

[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 800K
[WIU] 20K
Click to expand...

Very unlikely. Demand for Wii U in 2014 has been proven to match 2013 levels:

January 2013: 57K (11K per week)
February 2013: 66K (17K per week)
March 2013: 68K (14K per week)

January 2014: 49K (12K per week)
February 2014: 82K (21K per week)
March 2014: ???

There is no indication that Wii U would significantly dip below ~10K per week this month, so any predictions below ~50K are, in my opinion, not very accurate.


And then you have retailer accounts (like the one above) about Xbox One and PS4 being pretty close in March 2014 because of Sony's aggressive re-stocking in response to Microsoft's Titanfall juggernaut.

So a 400K discrepancy is just unfeasible.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
People would do well to remember that March is 5 weeks of tracking whereas last month, February, was only 4 weeks and historically March is a slightly stronger month than February on average

I.E. it's unlikely based on historic trends, increased tracking period and game releases [TF, ISS, DSII, South Park] that most consoles won't be up significantly from February numbers besides Wii U and Vita of course

Actually does anyone think that the MOM increase from January to February might be the sales that would've happened in January moved into February due to the weather and thus February results might not be accurate either? Thus predicting off of them may be less than accurate? Hmm
 
T

TheCloser

Banned
mcrommert said:
I'm going to go a little off the reservation :)

[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 800K
[WIU] 20K
Click to expand...

800k for the xbox one? lol not happening. I will be glad to admit if i'm wrong but i just don't see it happening. If that were the case, MS would have declared victory by now. No need to wait for NPDs. Anecdotal evidence doesn't even support this estimate. In fact, no console is doing 800k+ till black friday or christmas and it will probably be a last gen console if the price gets cut to $150.
 
D

dolemite

Member
The "historical trend" doesn't seem to apply anymore. The usual October x 2 = November and November x 2 = December trends are a thing of the past. The Jan to Feb jump in sales was unusually high as well. The March numbers ... could be anything.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
dolemite said:
The "historical trend" doesn't seem to apply anymore. The usual October x 2 = November and November x 2 = December trends are a thing of the past. The Jan to Feb jump in sales was unusually high as well. The March numbers ... could be anything.
Click to expand...

Blame January for the February results, my comparison of the two months does indeed show entirely odd behavior that historical trends wouldn't account for [likely weather-related to be honest] but the only reason I can forsee trouble with March predictions based on using slight increases from February [accounting for 5 weeks of tracking over 4 of course] would be that some January sales might've been pushed into February hence obscuring the particular demand in both months and causing difficulty using them for future prediction

I wouldn't just write of past historical trends because of a few cases where it's not true and trends like "October x 2 = November and November x 2 = December" is way too specific to be useful imo
 
A

Abdiel

Member
anexanhume said:
We don't have that inside look into retailer stock. We have bestseller lists from Amazon (where TF is ahead of SS in game shipments and the bundle has done well) and Best Buy and MS's aggressive bundling and retailer price drops to go off of.
Click to expand...

Edit: You guys already clarified to him that I work for Best Buy, haha. But, as to some of the other comments, I can say that I have looked over the larger district spreads on really slow days for our store, just to see what it looks like. Seeing some of the Cali districts (San Diego, San Fran, and LA are all their own district structures) and the numbers are very, very similar in terms of how they break down, just with much LARGER amounts. Stores in my district might get 100 PS4s in a single shipment and 50 XB1s, the LA and SD districts will be getting 2-3 times that many, depending on the store. But the spread of demand is still very similar to what I see in my district every week.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
[PS4] 275K
[XB1] 325K
[3DS]90K
[360] 85K
[PS3] 90K
[WIU] 80K


PS4 supply has been better but cannot compete with price drop and Titanfall rush.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
TheCloser said:
800k for the xbox one? lol not happening. I will be glad to admit if i'm wrong but i just don't see it happening. If that were the case, MS would have declared victory by now. No need to wait for NPDs. Anecdotal evidence doesn't even support this estimate. In fact, no console is doing 800k+ till black friday or christmas and it will probably be a last gen console if the price gets cut to $150.
Click to expand...

The only possible way Xbox One would hit 800K this month would be if retailer demand matched launch.

Xbox One sold 909,134 units in November / around that in December 2013, consoles were flying off the shelf, and the whole retail environment was abuzz with activity.

Now? We're not seeing that kind of situation. I expect AT THE HIGHEST CONCEIVABLE THRESHOLD we'll see a 2x increase (268,662 PS4 -> 537,324 PS4) (258K XBO -> 516K XBO) but to go any higher than that is ludicrous.

Historical Precedent:

360:

March 2006: 192K
March 2007: 199K
March 2008: 262K
March 2009: 330K
March 2010: 338K
March 2011: 433K
March 2012: 371K
March 2013: 302K

PS3:

March 2007: 130K
March 2008: 257K
March 2009: 218K
March 2010: 314K
March 2011: 365K
March 2012: 337K
March 2013: 211K

PS2:

March 2001: 547K
March 2002: 359K
March 2003: 399K
March 2004: 294K
March 2005: 495K
March 2006: 273K
March 2007: 280K
March 2008: 216K
March 2009: 112K
March 2010: 118K


Not ONCE did the 360 ever surpass 450K in March, so to expect significantly higher results from Xbox One just doesn't reflect the current situation.

The PS2---the most successful console in the world---only hit 500K twice in March throughout its entire lifespan. The Wii fared a little better during its peak years (it hit 500K three times).

But still...to hit such high numbers in March is rare.


In fact, the absolute all-time record for ANY home console sale in the 21st century in March is Wii's 721K March 2008. How on earth could Xbox One sell 800K in March if the ABSOLUTE ALL-TIME HIGHEST RECORD is 80K below it?
 
P

Prine

Banned
Abdiel said:
Erm. Nope. Just... no. You're talking December numbers here, with a prediction that high. Titanfall has sold well, but that number is laughable.
Click to expand...

I seem to remember (i think it was you) that hinted XB1 selling poorly in Feb. At least based on your regional data. I'll try to find the thread.

Edit: Found it, but i dont want to go off topic. We'll see i guess.

[360] 100k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 80k
[PS4] 310k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 400k
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Aquamarine said:
I also expect a Wii U regression this month back to March 2013 norms. March and April are completely dead months for the Wii U retail-wise.
Click to expand...

Ouch if that happens. You're thinking down month to month even with the 5 vs. 4 week month? Ouch.

I think it could hang on better than that since the library is vastly better in March 2014 than it was in March 2013, with a lower entry price.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
prag16 said:
Ouch if that happens. You're thinking down month to month even with the 5 vs. 4 week month? Ouch.

I think it could hang on better than that since the library is vastly better in March 2014 than it was in March 2013, with a lower entry price.
Click to expand...

I don't buy the "library is vastly better" argument because January 2014 was pretty much identical to January 2013 in terms of sales...and February 2014 was pretty close to February 2013 as well. The better library isn't translating into significant YOY gains.

February's results were positively impacted by DKC: TF. Now that the game has released and has made its impact on the market, I expect a regression to follow. Something like this:

January 2013: 57K (11K per week)
February 2013: 66K (17K per week)
March 2013: 68K (14K per week)

January 2014: 49K (12K per week)
February 2014: 82K (21K per week)
March 2014: 75K (15K per week)
 
prag16

prag16

Banned
Aquamarine said:
March 2014: 75K (15K per week)
Click to expand...

That doesn't seem unreasonable. I already forgot what I predicted (90k maybe?). Closer to 75 wouldn't surprise me. Down in the 50-55 range where a ton of predictions are landing WOULD surprise me. At the same time all the predictions 120 and above are probably way off base too.
 
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