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[schuelma]

Vinnk-

Could we get a Village report for this week?

I'm very curious about MGS4/PS3 of course, and also Shiren 3- how its selling, whether there was advertising. Also whether you've started to see and ToS:KoR advertising.

 

[Taurus]

awesome lol what episode is this?

I think it's this one: http://www.snpp.com/episodes/4F08.html

 

[Rolf NB]

woah, if that turns out to be true, it's a freaking disaster. I don't wanna be a sony fanboy come next Media Create thread if that resembles reality in any form.

I'll be there and say hi. I'd like it to be more, but after all the data that has come out of Japan this year so far, I just don't see a reason to be optimistic for anything related to the PS3 anymore. January was awesome, but then the PS3 practically stopped selling, and I still don't understand why. Knitting that up to the question of how much MGS4 can do for the PS3 in Japan, I can offer two explanations for what we've seen this year:
a)They have all been holding out for Metaru Gear [and bundles]
b)Japan stopped caring
I'm choosing b. I'd be happy if it turns out I'm wrong.

Vinnk saying that advertisement is stronger than anything before it sure is interesting though.

 

[donny2112]

1st week/LTD

MGS: 317K / 706K (45% 1st week)
MGS2: 457K / 798K (57% 1st week)
MGS3: 487K / 820K (59% 1st week)

2 and 3 had the added advantage of launching shortly before New Year's.

MGS4:
1st day: 200K
1st week: 280K

PS3:
1st week: 80K
2nd week: 25K

 

[Vinnk]

Vinnk-

Could we get a Village report for this week?

I'm very curious about MGS4/PS3 of course, and also Shiren 3- how its selling, whether there was advertising. Also whether you've started to see and ToS:KoR advertising.

Ok, I'll hit stores on Thursday.

As for Shiren 3. I would call the advertising "moderate". It's about average for a Wii game. Much more then "No More Heroes" much less than "Dragon Quest Swords".

All stores have posters. One store has a small kiosk. 2 stores have small flyers.

But at the same time the stores are going CRAZY over MGS4. That game is on every video screen, kisoks at every games store, flyers, free DVD in Famitsu, t-shirts at Uniqlo, banners, advertising on cash registers at convieniance stores, etc.

Compared to that, the advertising looks very small. But it's a better effort than most 3rd parties put out.

I haven't seen ToS:Kor advertising at all yet. But I haven't been looking for it either. I'll let you know more after thursday.

 

[gconsole]

DW fans never cared on the PS2 dont forget that every DW game sold over 1 million copies in japan.. NO MGS game did that

remember that every MinGol game sold over 1 million copies in Japan and that no MGS game did...

Can you explain DMC4 situation? Can that compare to no DMC ever did 1 million in japan but the new game didn't drop at the same percentage as DW and Minna no Golf?

 

[Mr. Pointy]

MGS4 -

220k first day
380k first week
~550k LTD

PS3 - 50k

If MGS4 launched near New Year's, it might have gotten more of a kick in the LTD, but I don't think it'll have legs.

 

[Phife Dawg]

I think the difference with an MGS game is that they only come around every 3 or 4 years and each one if kinda its own beast.

With say DW6 or MinGolf, I don't think, even for series fans, there's as much impetus to jump on them because you can always wait it out and pick up whatever version is most current whenever (if ever?) they do decide to get the hardware.

Also the Japanese MGS fanbase seems a little bit more resilient than the west. IIRC MGS3 bucked the trend in Japan by selling on par with the MGS2. I don't think MGS4 will sell as well as the PS2 games, but I do think it'll retain its audience better than DW6 or MinGolf did.

As for RGGK, maybe it was a case of too much, too soon, with RGG1, 2 and K coming out in the space of 2 and a bit years. Or maybe the modern day setting is a bigger part of the appeal of the series than Sega anticipated.

Well for starters both my hard- and software predicitions are well over what DMC4 achieved.

MGS4 sure is a HUGE game, both in scale, budget and expectations (mainly by Sony). And I do agree that MGS4 as a more hardcore oriented games as opposed to titles like DW and MnG has a better chance to retain its fanbase, especially given the fact that MGS4 has no competition whatsoever on PS3 atm. This theory is also backed by the fact MGS2 and 3 sold roughly the same, even though there was a huge difference in userbase between the two. That's why most of the expectations are rather high in the thread but if you hint at MGS4 performing even better than that I'd like to see your predictions.

As for RGGK its performance is nothing short of a disappointment, either way you slice it. Series fatigue OR new setting (both don't work that well together I think) could have played a role but it's not like RGGK is the anomaly in the PS3's library. PS3's status having an effect on the performance can not be dismissed imo.

Can you explain DMC4 situation? Can that compare to no DMC ever did 1 million in japan but the new game didn't drop at the same percentage as DW and Minna no Golf?

Up until now DMC4 seems to be the exception rather than the norm, which can probably be attributed to the poor performance of DMC3, even then it sits at roughly half of what DMC achieved. So DMC3 had a huge drop-off from DMC1 and 2. DW and MnG are much more mass market friendly and that is a market the PS3 has not tapped yet (and will most likely never tap).

That would be my try on an explanation.

 

[Rolf NB]

I disagree about MGS4 being too "hardcore" for anything in particular. Metal Gear puts so much focus on its characters and narrative that the only thing that stood between it and waves of casual gamers were its arcane control systems. But guess what, they're all fixed now in 4.

OTOH DMC4 is pretty much a gamey game. It has cut-scenes, but nobody takes them serious, nobody plays the game for them, and only the most hardcore even pay attention to what really happens in them.

Both games play to their fan bases, yes, but of the two, MGS4 is clearly the one that has a better chance of reaching out to a more casual crowd of gamers. Also significant is its more serious, plausible kind of tone within the spectrum of stuff that might draw in casuals. It's not a cartoony, saccharine kind of casual. Young males won't feel threatened playing it.

Btw when I say it's casual, I don't mean that as a knock. Games can not only then be good if you call them totally "hardcore". That's just idiot elitism and needs to die.

 

[m3k]

I think it's this one: http://www.snpp.com/episodes/4F08.html

lol!

thanks!

 

[Defuser]

Considering almost every ps3 hype game that came out has lackluster sales.

I'll say...

1st day - 120k
1st week - 180k

 

[Sato Koiji]

Go Sony GO go Sony GOGOOGOGO!!!

Gotta have a lil burst for MGS4 haha,...this will rule.

 

[test_account]

Usually i dont write too many predictions, but here is my predictions for MGS 4 in Japan:

- 1st day = 250k
- 1st week = 350k
- LTD = 550k

- PS3 consoles sold the 1st week of MGS4 = 65k

Its hard to say, but we will have the answers for 1st day sales in about 3 days and the 1st week sales in about 1.5 weeks

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

MGS4 First Day - 250k
MGS4 First Week - 350k
PS3 That Week - 64k

- 1st day = 250k
- 1st week = 350k
- LTD = 550k

- PS3 consoles sold the 1st week of MGS4 = 65k

Damn, not only I forgot to log out of my second account but I also forgot that I already predicted

 

[test_account]

Damn, not only I forgot to log out of my second account but I also forgot that I already predicted

So you noticed that i basicly copied you? I was hoping that you wouldnt notice Hehe, seriously though, i didnt copy you, but your prediction and my prediction are near identical indeed

 

[Vinnk]

Lowered expectations.

2 years ago, who would have thought that we would be predicting that during the week of MGS4 we hope that the PS3 can get sales up to the level of any normal week of Wii sales?

I really didn't see that coming.

 

[Sage00]

Lowered expectations.

2 years ago, who would have thought that we would be predicting that during the week of MGS4 we hope that the PS3 can get sales up to the level of any normal week of Wii sales?

I really didn't see that coming.

Even as late as this January we thought PS3 was stabilizing at a good level, and that was with RGG Kenzan and Valkyria on the way soon.

Shows that we really know nothing.

 

[charlequin]

A lot of these seem really high to me!

Day 1 - 170k
Week 1 - 250k
LTD - 450k

 

[CrisKre]

There is NO WAY its going to sell that low. Konami would be in real trouble if that was the case. This game is being flagshiped as the BIG PS3 title by sony too. no other game has had that privilege before. And the PS3 is at 2 million in japan.

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

its a BIG release. hardware id put on the 70k range for the week.

lower than this is a disaster for sony and konami. This is one of the most expensive games ever developed.

 

[botticus]

There is NO WAY its going to sell that low. Konami would be in real trouble if that was the case. This game is being flagshiped as the BIG PS3 title by sony too. no other game has had that privilege before. And the PS3 is at 2 million in japan.

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

its a BIG release. hardware id put on the 70k range for the week.

lower than this is a disaster for sony and konami. This is one of the most expensive games ever developed.

Just so we're clear, you're predicting it to outsell every other PS3 game in its first DAY, right?

 

[schuelma]

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

.

I agree that its the biggest release to date for the PS3, but do you realize how poorly software has sold on the PS3?

No game has broken 400K lifetime and you expect MGS4 to break it 1st day?

 

[Link]

There is NO WAY its going to sell that low. Konami would be in real trouble if that was the case. This game is being flagshiped as the BIG PS3 title by sony too. no other game has had that privilege before. And the PS3 is at 2 million in japan.

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

its a BIG release. hardware id put on the 70k range for the week.

lower than this is a disaster for sony and konami. This is one of the most expensive games ever developed.

There's not a good chance of it doing near those numbers. Larger franchises than MGS have come and gone already in Japan and most never even hit LTD's of what you're predicting for first day.

 

[CrisKre]

No game has broken 400K lifetime and you expect MGS4 to break it 1st day?

yes. i do. This is the most marketed game yet for the system and I forsee A LOT of adopters got PS3 systems intending to play MGS4. It will not move an insane amount of systems but it will have a GREAT attach rate with current users. Thats my prediction. Itll end up selling on the 750-850k range imo.

 

[Stumpokapow]

There is NO WAY its going to sell that low. Konami would be in real trouble if that was the case. This game is being flagshiped as the BIG PS3 title by sony too. no other game has had that privilege before. And the PS3 is at 2 million in japan.

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

You are aware that MGS2 did 450k first week and MGS3 did 490k first week, right?

 

[HK-47]

There is NO WAY its going to sell that low. Konami would be in real trouble if that was the case. This game is being flagshiped as the BIG PS3 title by sony too. no other game has had that privilege before. And the PS3 is at 2 million in japan.

I say its in the 350-400K range first day, 500-600k week.

its a BIG release. hardware id put on the 70k range for the week.

lower than this is a disaster for sony and konami. This is one of the most expensive games ever developed.

uh huh

 

[CrisKre]

You are aware that MGS2 did 450k first week and MGS3 did 490k first week, right?

yes im aware. I believe it will do close to those numbers.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Oh goodie, it's a poster not familiar with sales trends in Japan. We don't get a lot of those in MC threads any more.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

yes im aware. I believe it will do close to those numbers.

You do realize that those games hit those numbers on a system that what like 5x - 10x the install base?

 

[Leezard]

Oh goodie, it's a poster not familiar with sales trends in Japan. We don't get a lot of those in MC threads any more.

Let's enjoy him while we can.

 

[CrisKre]

Oh goodie, it's a poster not familiar with sales trends in Japan. We don't get a lot of those in MC threads any more.

hahaha, im familiar. I just dont think the games released for PS3 so far had the appeal MGS4 has for the demographics. Its a prediction. I may very well be wrong but i believe the title is as big of a title the PS3 will get until FFXIII. I think it should be the equivalent of GameCube heavy hitters with a similar installed basesomewhat, and this is even bundeled and advertised to high heaven.

Let's enjoy him while we can.

Dont get all elitist on me fella. thanks.

 

[dead souls]

yes im aware. I believe it will do close to those numbers.

:lol :lol

 

[Opiate]

I don't agree with CrisKre's numbers, but I do think this will be an interesting case study.

I think it's fair to say that MGS4 seems to be getting a bigger advertising push than MGS3 did (likely by a substantial margin), and there's no denying that it's gone from one of a host of major Playstation exclusives to being fairly isolated: there hasn't been a game of this size for months now, and probably won't be again for months on end.

Therefore, the game has free reign of the PS3 for a few months here, has a bundle working for it, has more advertising, and so forth. Absolutely everything is setting it up to sell better than before, except for the platform it's on. Which is why it will be interesting to me: if the game does sell substantially worse, there will be absolutely no argument that the game wasn't hindered by the platform of choice. On the other hand, if the game does manage to equal the sales of MGS2/3, that would indicate that a PS3 game can live up to its previous iterations, albeit only if absolutely everything aligns perfectly and Sony helps you market it.

 

[Askia47]

Hopefully a miracle happens. ill go low and say 200k First week and 50k PS3s sold.

I would hope for it to do 400K and closer to 75K Ps3 sales first week though. That probably wont happen, but you never know.

 

[CrisKre]

I think it's fair to say that MGS4 seems to be getting a bigger advertising push than MGS3 did (likely by a substantial margin), and there's no denying that it's gone from one of a host of major Playstation exclusives to being fairly isolated: there hasn't been a game of this size for months now, and probably won't be again for months on end.

Exactly my point. And, addressing the difference in userbase with the PS2, my logic is that the PS2 had the favor of the casual market in japan. The PS3 appears to be mainly composed of hardcore gamers, which i believe where the demographic that supported previous MGS titles. I dont think sales should be regarded proportionally to userbase necessarilly.

So, lack of notorious PS3 releases, quality of title, marketing push and PS3 consumer segment tell me this will do better than previous ps3 releases. we will see.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Dont get all elitist on me fella. thanks.

The issue most folks have with your argument is that it's been used for EVERY major Japanese PS3 release to date, most of which are bigger franchises in Japan than MGS and that also had hardware bundles and large marketing pushes AND a sparse marketplace to compete with, and we saw the same result happen everytime - a bit of a hardware bump that slowly decayed until the sales curve returned to normal, with the software nosediving out of the charts after a couple of weeks.

And then the cycle repeats itself with the next big title. If it doesn't happen with MGS4, people will start using GT5, then FFXIII, etc etc etc.

 

[CrisKre]

The issue most folks have with your argument is that it's been used for EVERY major Japanese PS3 release to date, most of which are bigger franchises in Japan than MGS and that also had hardware bundles and large marketing pushes, and we saw the same result happen everytime - a bit of a hardware bump that slowly decayed until the sales curve returned to normal, with the software nosediving out of the charts after a couple of weeks.

And then the cycle repeats itself with the next big title. If it doesn't happen with MGS4, people will start using GT5, then FFXIII, etc etc etc.

so i may be wrong. no need to be a dick about it. and i am by no means uninformed or a PS3 fanboy. Its just my perception of what may transpire.

Plus: im NOT claiming it will save PS3 or make it get out of the mess its in. Im just saying- BIG game will sell pretty well. thats all.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

so i may be wrong. no need to be a dick about it. and i am by no means uninformed or a PS3 fanboy. Its just my perception of what may transpire.

Plus: im NOT claiming it will save PS3 or make it get out of the mess its in. Im just saying- BIG game will sell pretty well. thats all.

I think everyone thinks it will sell pretty well, but with the numbers you're suggesting and past numbers and trends, how did you expect regular MC posters to react? Especially with how past yahoos have done similar posts in the past, most of them fanboy trash. Good to see you're not likely one of them though.

 

[schuelma]

so i may be wrong. no need to be a dick about it. and i am by no means uninformed or a PS3 fanboy. Its just my perception of what may transpire.

Plus: im NOT claiming it will save PS3 or make it get out of the mess its in. Im just saying- BIG game will sell pretty well. thats all.

I apologize if people came across a bit harsh...its just your predictions seem really really out there.

 

[Galactic Fork]

MGS4 Prediction
first day 180
first week 250
LTD 350-375
PS3 first week 50k
five weeks until it drops below 10k again. the two weeks after release will be between 20 and 30k.

 

[CrisKre]

I think everyone thinks it will sell pretty well, but with the numbers you're suggesting and past numbers and trends, how did you expect regular MC posters to react?

Hahaha, its a freaking internet prediction!! not that serious. And i gave WIDE ranges to my numbers too. The higher spectrum very optimistic, true. Still we will see how it fares. As i said its also the fact that so much time and money have been invested on the project... lower numbers than that would be disastrous for the publisher and sony. Some part of me refuses to think they didnt know what they where getting into lol.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

It's a prediction in a regular weekly sales thread on a board notorious for posters who are serious about realistic predictions.

I'm sure Konami will be looking at the worldwide numbers more than anything, so even if it doesn't do really well in Japan, if it sells enough overall that's all the really matters for the bottom line.

 

[Opiate]

Again, I do not personally think that MGS4 will shoot to the sorts of sales, CrisKre has suggested, but there is some logic here. Let me name most of the things I believe can push sales for a game:

1) Correct demographic focus (Game X fits the demographics of System Y)
2) Advertisement/Marketing
3) Bundling (In some ways, this is a subset of factor 2).
4) High Production Values
5) Critically Well Received
6) Not crowded by other popular games on the same system releasing in the time frame

In Japan, at least, it seems MGS4 has all of the above criteria in spades. It has everything that pushes software, except for the fact that the PS3 has a small user base and hasn't historically pushed a great deal of software.

Therefore, while I don't agree with Cris' estimations, I do think the stars have aligned for this game, and regardless of how it sells, we should be able to glean significant information from the results of this game in how the Japanese market is working right now.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

CrisKre,

Are you a betting man?

 

[nli10]

Hahaha, its a freaking internet prediction!! not that serious. And i gave WIDE ranges to my numbers too. The higher spectrum very optimistic, true. Still we will see how it fares. As i said its also the fact that so much time and money have been invested on the project... lower numbers than that would be disastrous for the publisher and sony. Some part of me refuses to think they didnt know what they where getting into lol.

You have 350k for first day MGS4 in JP.

I think that might be about right for first month sales for the title (but I mostly stay out of JP sales discussion and only come for the graphs). I'd say YTD, but I'm still thinking that PS3 will be much more desirable as a New Year present in Japan and MGS will still sell then.

As you say, Internet prediction and no right answer yet, AND you are very civil and discussing sensibly so I think it's just a little wishful thinking and hope to continue to see you in the JP threads.

 

[schuelma]

Again, I do not personally think that MGS4 will shoot to the sorts of sales, CrisKre has suggested, but there is some logic here. Let me name most of the things I believe can push sales for a game:

1) Correct demographic focus (Game X fits the demographics of System Y)
2) Advertisement/Marketing
3) Bundling (In some ways, this is a subset of factor 2).
4) High Production Values
5) Critically Well Received
6) Not crowded by other popular games on the same system releasing in the time frame

In Japan, at least, it seems MGS4 has all of the above criteria in spades. It has everything that pushes software, except for the fact that the PS3 has a small user base and hasn't historically pushed a great deal of software.

Therefore, while I don't agree with Cris' estimations, I do think the stars have aligned for this game, and regardless of how it sells, we should be able to glean significant information from the results of this game in how the Japanese market is working right now.

I generally agree, which is why my expectations seem to be a bit higher than most here. That said, Cris's estimates are just absolutely out there.

 

[CrisKre]

It's a prediction in a regular weekly sales thread on a board notorious for posters who are serious about realistic predictions.

O really dude? Should I go search for posts two years ago and dig out some "serious predictions" about Wii, or PS3? or even further back some "serious predictions" about how DS would fare?

Its disingenious to be calling people on predictions because of their nature. Thats my point. Think about it. Its not like I said Castlevania was published by Capcom, hahaha, get it?

CrisKre,

Are you a betting man?

hahaha, i love you. and no. never. i always loose. *wink

 

[CrisKre]

You have 350k for first day MGS4 in JP.

Many, many, MANY high profile games have done WAY over that historically in Japan first day. Even on struggling consoles. If you ask me its more surprising PS3 hasn't had a game amongst its bigger titles that accomplished those numbers yet than predicting the biggest release yet may do so.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

General big predictions are one thing. Predictions on a more granular scale with a more focused forecast window and a lot of past data points are another. You're being highly defensive here.

 

[CrisKre]

General big predictions are one thing. Predictions on a more granular scale with a more focused forecast window and a lot of past data points are another. You're being highly defensive here.

i dont mean to be defensive. My point is predictions can be off many times. Or really unexpectedly on. For all the people that where off about the more general Wii/DS prediction back in the day there where the few that said they would be a big success, those where mocked. All im saying is when it comes to prediction, outladish or not, all of them are acceptable. I gave my train of tought, i think it may happen, we all should learn our lessons, and we will see what happens. <3