Grampa Simpson
Banned
So you're making predictions that you know to be unattainable in a sales-age thread for what reason then?CrisKre said:
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Media Create Sales 5/26 - 6/1
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
CrisKre said:
If you look at consoles that struggle, the iterations of previously huge series tend to decline. It happened with the GC and so far it has absolutely happened to every franchise to hit the PS3 sans Devil May Cry. That''s why people think your predictions are so unlikely.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
CrisKre said:
Warren Buffett makes bets on his predictions - http://www.boingboing.net/2008/06/09/warren-buffet-make-1.html - and he's going to be 80 soon.
You're doing something else entirely.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Am I the only one that thinks there's no possible way Konami is making back the money put into this game?XiaNaphryz said:It's a prediction in a regular weekly sales thread on a board notorious for posters who are serious about realistic predictions.
I'm sure Konami will be looking at the worldwide numbers more than anything, so even if it doesn't do really well in Japan, if it sells enough overall that's all the really matters for the bottom line.
Link said:
I kind of doubt they'll recoup costs at 1 mil games. I would think R&D would have run up the costs a lot but they often don't get attributed to a specific games production budget because they're seen as an overhead investment for future games as well.
And apparently the quote was 1 mil games needed on day one.
Sharp said:
Theory? Doesn't there need to be some hard evidence to support a theory? That's more like a fantasy. For OoT, you're talking about a game that was released 2 years into the N64's lifecycle while LttP was released at 1 year for SNES. The hardware numbers weren't that different at each games release. The PS2 to PS3 console difference is huge and MGS3 was released 4 years into the PS2's lifecycle.
Narag said:
The only information we have is from Barlog I think his name was? He made a comment on the budget of MGS4 from what he had heard. Im pretty sure I saved this quote after seeing it while lurking GAF months ago:
Thats about all we have. Even if he isn't spot on, and is just somewhere in the neighborhood, 1m units isn't going to cut it. However the game will make a profit of that I'm certain.
Phife Dawg
Member
Shooting low? No way is MGS4 gonna sell that few copies on launch day and then go on more than doubling these numbers for the first week. A broad appeal this game has not. If it were that way we would've seen an increase in sales from MGS2 to MGS3 due to the heavily increased userbase. Most of the first week numbers will be from day 1.kassatsu said:
So has there ever been a reliable guide as to how much a game has to sell to break even or make a profit? Development costs for big-budget 'next-gen' (ugh) games would be how much? 5-15 million? More? (Was it GTA4 that was 100 million...?)
It's not too difficult to calculate the sales needed to make x revenue, but who knows what cut goes to developers?
It's not too difficult to calculate the sales needed to make x revenue, but who knows what cut goes to developers?
AnimeTheme
Member
Vinci said:
You seriously think it will be worse than DMC4?
Phife Dawg
Member
Well I wouldn't have thought that RGGK would do worse than DMC4 - strange things have happened this gen. Although I do agree that the propability is indeed very low for MGS4 to do worse than DMC4.AnimeTheme said:
Phife Dawg
Member
That's awfully low as well in the light of the bundles.kassatsu said:
PS3 DMC4 release week was ~40k and then dropped off the weeks after. Even RGGK bumped the PS3 from ~10k to ~20k. There should be more in the cards for MGS4, it'll almost certainly only be a temporary bump but still.
Phife Dawg
Member
dp
AnimeTheme
Member
kassatsu said:
:lol
Well, seriously, how much MGS4 can push the hardware sales is definitely the hardest part to guess.
norinrad21
Banned
first week 250k
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
You can't just look at hardware sales as an aggregate, however, because you need to look at demographics and who's buying the game. OOT is the best selling Zelda because it was hyped as the singular greatest game of all time. Enough fringe consumers bought it so that its reach eclipsed mere hardware sales. Perhaps it could have sold more with a Playstation high user base, but there were enough consumers who wanted the game badly enough on that particular console. They converted consumers who otherwise would not have bought it; in effect, they found the right sort of perfect storm so that they could maximize their user base, creating a greater ratio of OOT to N64 sales. Metroid Prime had a similar dictum, as even without Japanese sales it still was the greatest selling game of the series with a relatively small user base.Ceres said:
I am merely saying that these games are doing more with less. Of course MGS4 would have to have an extraordinary level of hype, and given how ubiquitous MGS and MGS2 were, it will be tough to reach that, and so perhaps sales will suffer in comparison. But it can happen, and part of it will be contingent on many variables. Looking at OOT, it was part quality, part timing, part build up and release, part breakthrough, along with other factors.
Perhaps release date into a console's life span is a big factor, but there have been way too many counter examples of a sequel doing worse farther into the console's life. So I think there are bigger things at work here.
Terrell said:
N64 failed to break 6M in Japan. At worst, the PS3 will do 75% of N64s LTD. Personally I think that it will eventually pull ahead due to the Final Fantasy XIII twins hitting the console in the next year or so (I'm guessing an eventual 7-8M LTD for the PS3). Either way, the N64 didn't sell several leagues better than the PS3 in Japan. Maybe in North America, but N64 sales were horrible everywhere else.
creamsugar
Member
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slaughterking
Member
Nice, little Shiren-bump. 