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You're using a prediction as gospel. Its a nice little indicator and nothing more. It could easily debut at or above 100K and show significantly better legs than the Wii U game due to its portability and not being on a dead system.
frankie_baby
Member
Even being "the most successful home episode" (which I'm far from convinced of it being anyway) would still be chicken feed compared to the portable highs, there is one coming, even with capcpom being capcpom on switch suppirt in general another monhun of some sort will have been in the works
SinCityAssassin
Member
3 Ultimate for Wii U debuted at around 105k-110k when it released in December in Japan.
We won't know for sure for a few weeks more, but given the in-holiday drops, I would say that DQXI ultimately didn't do much for hardware on either of its platforms aside from a momentary bump. The legs aren't going to be very long PS4 as now I am doubting its ability to reach 1.5m at retail (we'll know better next week).
Not sure its really laid an all that much more healthy environment for MHW to jump into... five or six+ months from now... with no major software from here to there to bridge the gap. I think we can expect a fairly healthy opening compared to the usual launch for PS4 software but I also don't really expect Aostia's prognosis for this somehow climbing over 1.1mil. DQXI has set the bar, and I don't see MHW getting *that* close to the ceiling with its major USP missing.
Too early to really say for sure, and while DQXI did indeed do really well we're not seeing signs of a prolonged effect.
If I were Capcom, this is what I'd be looking at. I think global will have to pick up a *lot* of slack on this title, and we already know Capcom's expectations for this are high. That said the global rollout also just looks like a mess right now. No crossplay, no PC launch seemingly this FY, the X1 launch...I don't have confidence in its western performance. PS4 will have to carry it globally at launch at least.
Not sure its really laid an all that much more healthy environment for MHW to jump into... five or six+ months from now... with no major software from here to there to bridge the gap. I think we can expect a fairly healthy opening compared to the usual launch for PS4 software but I also don't really expect Aostia's prognosis for this somehow climbing over 1.1mil. DQXI has set the bar, and I don't see MHW getting *that* close to the ceiling with its major USP missing.
Too early to really say for sure, and while DQXI did indeed do really well we're not seeing signs of a prolonged effect.
If I were Capcom, this is what I'd be looking at. I think global will have to pick up a *lot* of slack on this title, and we already know Capcom's expectations for this are high. That said the global rollout also just looks like a mess right now. No crossplay, no PC launch seemingly this FY, the X1 launch...I don't have confidence in its western performance. PS4 will have to carry it globally at launch at least.
Is it really that hard to google or look at Chris' very useful archived thread (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=416253)? We don't need to make up dream-numbers to build a faulty argument.
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201212/11025760.html
WIU - MH3G HD Ver. - 110,149
And our actual own thread on the subject: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=503807
04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW [Media Create]
05./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 110.149 / NEW [Famitsu]
With bundles, they could have the exact same FW sales or within meaningless %-deviations. The problem is that Capcom cut off *higher* sales potential or even legs.
https://www.famitsu.com/news/201212/11025760.html
WIU - MH3G HD Ver. - 110,149
And our actual own thread on the subject: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=503807
04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW [Media Create]
05./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # <ACT> (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (¥4.800) - 110.149 / NEW [Famitsu]
With bundles, they could have the exact same FW sales or within meaningless %-deviations. The problem is that Capcom cut off *higher* sales potential or even legs.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
It's pretty clear Capcom has no interested in making new games for the Switch. So as much as you want to call out that poster for his doom and gloom attitude he's correct.
Kresnik258
Member
I forgot The Lost Child was out this week. Think that's gonna be yet another bomba under Kadokawa's belt.
Like... have they had any successes under their videogame label? I know KanColle sold a good chunk but didn't do as well as it should have done based on the IP.
I guess Root Letter and God Wars did well enough to get PR for their releases worldwide, but domestically they didn't do very much. Rodea seemed to be a disaster; Natural Doctrine did nothing etc.
At least the first Demon Gaze did pretty well for them.
Like... have they had any successes under their videogame label? I know KanColle sold a good chunk but didn't do as well as it should have done based on the IP.
I guess Root Letter and God Wars did well enough to get PR for their releases worldwide, but domestically they didn't do very much. Rodea seemed to be a disaster; Natural Doctrine did nothing etc.
At least the first Demon Gaze did pretty well for them.
I know we all think Capcom is idiotic, but I find the odds of Capcom ignoring a successful portable in Japan for its portable franchise about zero.
I agree they were caught flat footed, but it seems like they usually are (look at PS4 Capcom support for first 2 years or so)
The only thing that is clear is that Capcom has put zero resources behind Switch until now.
Eolz
Member
PS4 was a completely different situation to be fair. PS3 was still alive, there was nothing coming for the japanese market, etc.
It wasn't just Capcom.
Only clear thing is that they were caught flatfooted. The rushed ports after sales successes does not show a lack of interest, it shows you didn't plan ahead and are playing catch up.
That's really their own fault for having zero foresight and even the slightest bit of reserve planning *just in case*. As I said before, Capcom is its own worst enemy when it comes to its own software. They put their expectations through the roof in the wrong place, and then have under-cut expectations for things that actually do well.
Honestly yes
On mobile isn't easy
But I tried and find out that Ltd of wiiu version were on spot
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php
214k in Japan after 4 months
If YSO is right we could see a debut similar to the wiiu one bit inflated by the bundles
With the promotional push of World I can't see any kind of greategs for XX
It doesn't need great legs to reach the "lofty" heights of 200k.
You do know most of the Wii U 3G HD 1st week sales were bundles right? Launch bundles at that.
Capcom doesnt have unlimited resources either - they dropped RE7, MHXX and a new Attorney game this year while preparing for big 2018 releases like MHW and continuing their HD-Remaster/digital-rerelease initiative.
Its less about Capcom going out of their way to not support the Switch - they just had their hands full with projects planned for 2017 on established systems. Switch always was going to be a afterthought in the first year because of its installed base.
Company is on a tight budget right now and they cant afford to many fuck ups or experiment so they are backing proven systems and IPs - unless a first party supports them like w. Dead Rising, MH XX Switch port or the VR stuff with Sony.
Capcom isnt losing much for not being on Switch this year....neither is Nintendo for not having much more Capcom content. Once Switch hits +10-15m worldwide the tune will change rather fast.
I would get worried if Re2make isnt hitting Switch - but for series like Ace Attorney or Monster Hunter Switch seems like the natural upgrade path sooner or later.
Its less about Capcom going out of their way to not support the Switch - they just had their hands full with projects planned for 2017 on established systems. Switch always was going to be a afterthought in the first year because of its installed base.
Company is on a tight budget right now and they cant afford to many fuck ups or experiment so they are backing proven systems and IPs - unless a first party supports them like w. Dead Rising, MH XX Switch port or the VR stuff with Sony.
Capcom isnt losing much for not being on Switch this year....neither is Nintendo for not having much more Capcom content. Once Switch hits +10-15m worldwide the tune will change rather fast.
I would get worried if Re2make isnt hitting Switch - but for series like Ace Attorney or Monster Hunter Switch seems like the natural upgrade path sooner or later.
James Scott
Banned
Likely the only reason Capcom had so much support for 3DS was that it was always going to be the home for MH. With Capcom's current condition they were likely betting against switch, so to speak, expecting it to do poorly so they would go elsewhere.
Anything since launch is them trying to correct their mistake.
Wait, why do you/people expect it to release on Switch?
That's one of the more unlikely Capcom games to see release on Switch IMO.
Yup. Capcom didn't see MHW as giving up on the portable sales because they never expected there to be a viable platform for it going forward anyway.
^ I agree. Though betting against might be a strong word, they just didn't have *any* confidence. At all.
Its funny you list them like this because almost all of them are fuck-ups in some fashion or other, except RE7 but even that won't meet their nonsensical forecasts. DR is a complete mess, SFV was a tirefire, MHXX Switch is a mismanaged mess, and RE7 had impossible sales goals. RE7 even continues to have impossible sales goals.
Even the smaller releases have been on a varying scales from a mess to a sales disappointment with products of tenuous purpose.
This is demonstrably false. Those who were there early benefited immensely with outside the norm sales results. This time around, those companies just happen to be Konami, NIS, and indies. Even Capcom benefited from the surprising sales of SFII but that wasn't because of any effort Capcom put into it, but because its SFII. Capcom planned poorly for forward support, even by Japanese standards, that's all on them. Book is more or less written at this point. Namco or those still slow to the Switch are either much more successful global players, or serve a comfortable niche.
Nintendo, though, ya they probably aren't losing much right now.
Its funny you list them like this because almost all of them are fuck-ups in some fashion or other, except RE7 but even that won't meet their nonsensical forecasts. DR is a complete mess, SFV was a tirefire, MHXX Switch is a mismanaged mess, and RE7 had impossible sales goals. RE7 even continues to have impossible sales goals.
Even the smaller releases have been on a varying scales from a mess to a sales disappointment with products of tenuous purpose.
This is demonstrably false. Those who were there early benefited immensely with outside the norm sales results. This time around, those companies just happen to be Konami, NIS, and indies. Even Capcom benefited from the surprising sales of SFII but that wasn't because of any effort Capcom put into it, but because its SFII. Capcom planned poorly for forward support, even by Japanese standards, that's all on them. Book is more or less written at this point. Namco or those still slow to the Switch are either much more successful global players, or serve a comfortable niche.
Nintendo, though, ya they probably aren't losing much right now.
SinCityAssassin
Member
So between August and March, which is the release month for MHW, you're literally expecting a MONSTER HUNTER game on a POPULAR NEW NINTENDO PLATFORM to sell less than 100k in that period of time.
James Scott
Banned
With rumored games like Okami and the street fighter collection (which will likely retail for the same price as USFII Switch and include USFII) seemingly skipping Switch I'm not sure I could bet on anything modern from Capcom coming.
As for either losing out or not; I'm not entirely sure. Capcom made a bunch off a low effort product. Wasn't even out for launch which likely would've helped it sell more.
Switch likely doesn't "need" Capcom to be a success like Vita and PSP in the past, but they'd also benefit.
So I thought about this, and the two reasons that came to mind were:
1.) If your shareholders are notably unhappy about your current business strategy, you might feel pressure to announce a port in order to prevent them from tanking the stock or trying to change board members in a shareholder revolt.
2.) If your game is being ported to another system, you might not want your fans to feel upset by having bought the original system only for that game. An example of this would be Tales of Vesperia on Xbox 360, where there were a lot of stories about how upset Japanese people who bought an Xbox 360 for that game were when it got a PS3 port.
Afterwards, I looked for a Capcom statement and found this: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/resident-evil-4-coming-to-ps2/1100-6111911/
They cite both shareholder and fan requests for the decision, so I suspect my reasons aren't too far off the mark. It's also notable that the stories about this are posted on October 31st and November 1st, suggesting that it was likely part of their fiscal call (which happens during the night in the US), as financial results calls happen about a month after the quarter ends (which would have been the end of September), so that would be a very investor minded announcement timing.
So, I don't think you will like my answer, but it comes in a few parts.
1.) The PS4/XB1 port of Resident Evil 4 and Resident Evil 5 were released after Resident Evil 7 was announced. However, the counter argument here is that people feel spin-offs and ports on the same platform actually build an audience for an upcoming game regardless of when they're announced.
2.) The late port of Monster Hunter World on PC is publicly announcing that a better version of the game will come at a later date before the game is even released. There are also a lot of popular Monster Hunter YouTubers who are primarily PC gamers that would recommend any of their patient fans wait for that. Co-op games are also very popular on PC. However, the objection here is that the PC (for traditional paid products) isn't vastly more popular than the PS4.
3.) In the reverse of the former, people seem to consider announcing late ports for Switch, even if it's before the game ever releases, to actually be a company actively sabotaging the Switch version. Presumably this is driven by the Switch being less popular than the PS4, and the Switch having worse hardware.
4.) Given the above scenarios, and the fact that Nintendo has not had a platform that is both more popular and more powerful than their competitors in decades, the only scenario that would seem to be accepted as an example is Capcom announcing a mainline entry for a Nintendo platform before a spin-off entry for a non-Nintendo platform released.
I think the only Capcom example that would fit scenario 4 is announcing Monster Hunter Tri for the Wii ~6 or so months before Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G came out for the PSP.
Publishers don't actually consider piracy to be a major issue, which is why everyone makes PC ports as well. It was more about trying to blame financial issues caused by flawed products on any excuse but themselves. Similarly, this is why used games and renting were presented as the devil for quite a few years, but no one even mentions it now that they're all doing better financially.
Are you expecting a MONSTER HUNTER game on a POPULAR NEW NINTENDO PLATFORM to sell less than 100k at launch?
Because YSO is
SinCityAssassin
Member
And that's fine if they do expect that, there are a number of factors and circumstances that led them to predict this.
However, you thinking the legs of the port won't get it up to over 215k in the span of 7 months is asinine. It's the only MH the Switch is getting at this point in time, people who want the Switch and also want a Monster Hunter they can take with them will not have another choice.
I don't think there's any late ports to Switch that are analogous to something Resident Evil 4 or Tales of Vesperia. Very few of them have any new content for one thing and the ones that do have miniscule amounts.
The closest example would be DQHI&II but those games aren't just inferior to their PS4 versions performance wise, they're downright bad.
EDIT: I realise that's a bit out of context as you were discussing later PC ports but a lot of people also think that trend is stupid.
What is stopping those people who want to the switch and also want mh to buy it at launch?
They don't have other choice
SinCityAssassin
Member
Money, stock and supply, they want Splatoon 2 first, the usual.
And in the incoming months they will look for other games first too
As LordKano said (despite it continuing to downtown my posts just because I have different opinions) this is a lowkey release, for many reasons, all on Capcom shoulders
Well I mean it's the most notable third party release for Switch to date(And probably for quite a while)...
Look, it's not that you have different opinions, and I have nothing against you in particular, but you're always so keen on picking the first occasion to remind everyone here that you have absolutely no belief on Switch's third party support that I can only be annoyed that the only reason the thread is active right now is again because of that.
Thats actually the wrong way to go at it. Its bad for your mental health. Being optimistic and occasionally dissapointed is better. People that keep expectations in check are more likely to go into depression. Google TED talks about it.
Sure, but unless I'm misreading this news story, there was no new content announced for Resident Evil 4 PS2 before the GameCube release came out. They just announced that the game was being ported to a system with inferior hardware almost a year later.
However, people feel that was sabotage, so presumably the explanation there was the popularity of the PS2.
Unless the Switch outsells the PS4 significantly, it feels unlikely people would ever make the same assessment of a late Switch port of a PS4 game, even if it's announced prior to launch. The only game people even seemed willing to consider that for was Dragon Quest XI on Switch impacting 3DS sales, but we didn't get nearly as much discussion of it impacting PS4 sales. I'm guessing that's a hardware power difference perspective?
You can see where I feel the situation is reassessed in the most negative way for Nintendo regardless of what happens. If we do always view playing games on PlayStation as preferential to playing games on Nintendo systems, then there's basically no port situation where the Nintendo platform impacts the Sony one negatively, which is why I gave the Nintendo mainline Monster Hunter vs. Sony spin-off example.
What is stopping people from buying any game or console day one? I don't see how you can just apply that logic solely to Monster Hunter and Switch, especially when the latter is having trouble meeting demand.
So you're conceding Capcom isn't supporting the release...then claiming Capcom will abandon Switch because of the results?
That's probably true, I don't think they announced it. I don't think it was as common for late ports to not have extra content and I'm fairly sure SCEA had official policy well into the PSP era that forbade late ports without extra content.
To the bottom bolded: Whilst power is definitely a big factor I think you'd need to first have an example of game actually getting a definitive edition on a Nintendo platform. Out of interest do you think Dragon Quest XI is going to have any real positive value proposition over the PS4 version other than being on Switch/Portable?
Jon Carter
Member
I think another Monster Hunter being in development for the Switch is obvious. There's a new Monster Hunter releasing every year, the Switch is a successful platform worldwide, and it already has a Monster Hunter less than six months after launch. The odds that there is no MH in development on Switch are incredibly low.
I think it's important not to count the chicken before they hatch though. Rewind five years and there was a lot of talk of how Capcom wouldn't just drop Sony platforms and that Ichinose's team was presumably working on a Vita/PS3/PS4 game In the end Capcom doubled down on their new platform.
It's not inconceivable that Capcom would devote as many resources to making PS4/XBO/PC Monster Hunter a thing, especially if they never even considered Switch an option when making those plans.
I believe its been confirmed somewhat that that the X/XX team isn't involved with World.
Jon Carter
Member
The Switch is getting a Monster Hunter bundle within its first six months. It's also the first special edition Switch. That seems a pretty clear sign that they know there's a fanbase there worth appealing to. Unless the system collapses, another MH game is a guarantee in my opinion.
You should read the post I was replying to
Nope
Let's try it again, hopefully people will start reading instead of attacking
Capcom development pipeline clearly didn't involve switch in a meaningful way
I was hoping for a strong counter sign by the market with bold result for mhxx on switch (relatively speaking)
The predictions are very low, confirming what we were saying in the past weeks, so that capcom sent it to die in many way and the only actual push seem to come from Nintendo
This will surely not be seen as a strong signal toward the switch internally in capcom, and strong signals is what the switch would need to move capcom resources toward the console in a meaningful way
Instead it will sell poorly, and capcom will continue to not support the console as a primarily chosen one
That doesn't rule out the possibility of that team working on a separate game for the same platform.
Who's they? Nintendo will be the reason it's getting a bundle and it's not necessarily a question of whether they think there's a fanbase but if Switch can fit into their plans. Evidently it's not that important or World would be releasing on Switch.
Gotdatmoney
Member
Even though I'm sure Capcom is making a MH game for the Switch having 2 separate titles is the worst thing for the franchise. Splitting the buying base and even the game styles over multiple platforms is dumb. Instead of consolidating everything on a consistent set of platforms they are gonna crank out a title every year on different platforms.
That's throughly unappealling from a consumer perspective and from a business point of view you're devloping entirely separate product lines that could easily be 1 product with lower cost and reach a bigger total audience. I dont really get why anyone would want that.
That's throughly unappealling from a consumer perspective and from a business point of view you're devloping entirely separate product lines that could easily be 1 product with lower cost and reach a bigger total audience. I dont really get why anyone would want that.
I agree that Nintendo (that offered the bundle, asked capcom to hurry up with the release of this game, asked capcom to showcase the Japanese version in the recent European/French fair) want to retain the MH fan base on Switch.
Capcom on the other hand? Don't even bother to localize the game for the western market despite it being almost already translated (being an expansion of XX , already localized), to not move the focus away from World
- [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 181
- [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 71
- [3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers - 68
- [SWI] Splatoon 2 - 31
- [PS4] Dragon Quest X: All in one pack - 22
- [3DS] Pokémon Sun - 16
- [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 14
- [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 13
- [SWI] Arms - 12
- [SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 12
- [3DS] Layton's Mystery Journey: Katrielle and the Millionaire's Conspiracy - 12
- [PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy - 11
- [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Game of the Year Edition - 10
- [3DS] Pokémon Moon - 10
- [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? - 10
- [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 9
- [3DS] Great Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 2 - Naruhodou Ryuunosuke no Kakugo - 9
- [3DS] Puyo Puyo Chronicles - 9
- [3DS] Hey! Pikmin - 9
- [3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 9
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 93
[PS4] New Everybody's Golf - 54
[PS4] Megadimension Neptunia VIIR - 49
[SWI] Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch ver. - 48
[PS4] Nights of Azure 2 - 40
[PS4] Sen no Kiseki 3 - 37
[3DS] Etrian Mystery Dungeon 2 - 34
[PSV] Nights of Azure 2 - 30
[PS4] Ark: Survival Evolved - 20
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux - 19
[PS4] Destiny 2 - 15
[SWI] Pokken Tournament DX - 14
[PS4] Winning Eleven 2018 - 14
[PS4] The Evil Within 2 - 13
[PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX - 12
[PS4] Call of Duty: WWII - 12
You're literally just restating what I said- Capcom is sending it do die but then according to your logic is going to use that result as an excuse to not support the console. I know we hate Capcom, but that's just asinine.
I'll give Capcom a little slack- World isn't even going to be ready on PC at launch- not sure how feasible it is to expect it day and date on Switch.
Sorry but asinine is your logic that would see a negative sales result on a console as a signal for a software house not supporting that console to start supporting it
It doesn't make sense
Take a look also at the discussion happening g in this very thread about re4 and capcom