That game is probably going to open at like half what the did.Damn, no sign of Nights of Azure Switch...
Damn, no sign of Nights of Azure Switch...
Bye, PS4 DQXI.
So Monster Hunter Double Cross might suffer a huge drop, I was hoping for it keep in the 20k range, but now I am not that sure.
And no signs of the Nights of Azure 2 for Switch, and I was expecting a minimum of 10k for this game.
Good job and thanks for compiling this list Nirolak.Road to TGS.™
DQ1 DQ2 DQ3 DQ4 DQ5 DQ6 DQ7 DQ8 DQ9 DQ10 DQ11
Week 1 ~160,000* ~440,000 ~1,370,000 159,000 684,000 1,455,000 1,862,065 2,236,881 2,343,440 420,311 2,080,806
Week 2 ~34,000* ? ? 161,000* 685,000 449,000 1,072,286 559,524 602,856 70,352 426,189
Week 3 ? ? ~362,000* ? 477,000 308,000 329,317 200,033 271,206 45,470 188,250
Week 4 ? ? ~193,000* ? ? 269,000* 154,797 116,731 172,728 20,616 154,130
Week 5 ? ? ? ? 356,000* 80,000 83,918 118,119 106,514 13,616 53,251
5 wk tot:? ? ? ? ? 2.563m 3.502m 3.232m 3.497m 0.570m 2.902m
Wii U: 1
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245485084&postcount=1638Maybe I missed it, but what's the lone Wii U title? The only things I'm aware of that are still coming are the final DLC for Zelda and (presumably) Shovel Knight.
Dragon Quest X: 5,000 Year Journey to a Faraway Hometown Online
Publisher/Developer: Square Enix
Platform(s): WiiU/PC/PS4/Switch
Genre: MMORPG
Release Window: November 16th, 2017
Notes: This is the fourth expansion pack for Dragon Quest X
Yeah, I think the market slots into place very straightforwardly if we just look at who the people spending money on these games must be.Of the overall market size, that sounds fairly small and I wonder how much of that isn't already centralized in the top. But its a good point, I had thought the market plateau had been a bit more rigid and that the overall growth had largely stagnated. But this ties into the next bullet...
This is actually very interesting because I look at the games I have played (but let's focus on FEH), and almost all of the major spenders are Japanese. Even the biggest whales that we know in our discord for the game are small fry compared to some of the major spenders on the Japanese side of things. Perhaps this skewed my perception to think that there was a huge whale distribution/dependence in Japan, but it would seem it is more likely that Japan has (perhaps?) bigger spenders but less of them and the overall market is supported by a more even distribution in spending. So less whales, more dolphins. That said, putting the spending of the average consumer into the frame of the video game retail market does paint a fairly clear and succinct picture on where the "market went".
It didn't disappear, it just went to a place it more prefers.
So in reality, my understanding was actually skewed in reverse of reality. The market *decentralized* and the major tops are actually more heavily competing with each other and the lower market than I thought. I had thought that the top earners would own almost the entirety of the market.
It does also seem that Japan's "top earners" are very much linked to events and even the smaller titles can shoot up around event cycles and make a good bit of money on these periods even if, for the majority of the time, they hang out not in the top 10. In a year over many titles and many events, this would add up to a fairly significant portion of the market cap total for mobile revenue.
I think the fact that some devs have even started outright porting mobile games to the Switch with positive results shows just how close these markets are becoming. I wouldn't even be surprised if we saw more "more like a handheld" mobile games just outright launch with the Switch selling a version. I look at Implosion, old game as it is, and if Implosion 2 were to come out, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it on both iOS/Droid and Switch on the same day.
Dragon Quest X's newest expansion pack.Maybe I missed it, but what's the lone Wii U title? The only things I'm aware of that are still coming are the final DLC for Zelda and (presumably) Shovel Knight.
There's a few factors:Whats surprising for me from road to tgs, why the number of mobile game so little.
Square Enix is also shutting down Final Fantasy Legends II and turning it into a paid app: https://translate.googleusercontent...28228/&usg=ALkJrhhPOWNQ4WSglba4TNLIzd_U07jKww
Seeing as how at this same time last year it was selling only in the ballpark of 6,000, I'd say it's in pretty good shape at the moment. Besides, if this is 'taking a beating', I'd hate to imagine what you thought of the PS3.
Yeah but 6k is litterally deader than dead. It's a testment to just how poorly the Ps4 was actually selling rather than well it is currently doing.
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
|System | [B]This Week[/B] | [B]Last Week[/B] | Last Year | YTD | Last YTD | LTD |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
| PS4 | [B]96.433[/B] | [B]560[/B] | 8.375 | 916.511 | 823.328 | 3.217.591 |
+-------+------------+------------+------------+------------+------------+-------------+
Bye, PS4 DQXI.
[SWI] Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch ver. - 112
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 66
[PS4] Megadimension Neptunia VIIR - 39
[PS4] Shin Yomawari - 29
[PS4] Megadimension Neptunia VIIR (Memorial Edition) - 26
[SWI] Splatoon 2 - 26
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers - 26
[PSV] Shin Yomawari - 22
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age - 19
[SWI] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 19DQXI for PS4 really dropped, no? All the way down to MK8D levels.
...
03./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 30.146 / 1.671.067 (-55%)
04./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 22.600 / 1.314.402 (-54%)
...
Damn, that's pretty bomba for Nights of Azure 2 Switch. I expected a bit better results tbh. The Vita version is doing much better than I was hoping for, compared to Switch. That version is such a technical shitshow - why are people buying that? (And why is the Switch version selling much worse?? >.>)
I guess it's an audience problem. Hopefully the Switch version of Atelier will do much better.
Also thanks for another week of Road to TGS, Nirolak!
Yes, that one tanked over time, as did the relaunch.Wait, what? So you have to buy the game to play it now? If that's the case, then maybe the game wasn't doing so well.
Damn, that's pretty bomba for Nights of Azure 2 Switch. I expected a bit better results tbh. The Vita version is doing much better than I was hoping for, compared to Switch. That version is such a technical shitshow - why are people buying that? (And why is the Switch version selling much worse?? >.>)
I guess it's an audience problem. Hopefully the Switch version of Atelier will do much better.
Also thanks for another week for Road to TGS, Nirolak!
Will Nights of Azure 2 Switch flop this hard!?
Are people expecting Koei Tecmo's games to do well on Switch?
I just assumed they'd all tank except maybe the Nintendo branded ones.
Sorry, didn't catch your post earlier. We have physical numbers from publishers and they end up being close to the data from Media Create/Famitsu, so we know they're accurate. However Famitsu digital estimates tend to be less accurate, we had instances where the official number was way off compared to the Famitsu estimate. It's still an useful data though.
Okay lets slow down for a bit....even with Switch software selling reasonably well. The system installed base is still quite a bit lower compared to other plattforms - so there is a limit to how many games can sell/perform solid at the same time. Especially when talking about such niche releases.
Just because certain games are off doesn't mean data physical is more accurate than digital for all games. In fact for all we know a lot physical data could be inaccurate, but the problem is we just don't have enough numbers to fully verify them. If you trust Famitsu's physical data, there is no reason to distrust their digital data.
I was responding to a person who disregarded certain numbers because they didn't fit their preconditioned expectations. This is ridiculous. If we start to cherry pick which numbers we trust and distrust, sales discussions would lead nowhere.
Usually niche games have no problem reaching their full potential even on a low install base because the audience are enthusiasts who buy new hardware as early as they can. But since the Switch is so supply constrained even though the niche audience probably wanted to buy a Switch, most of them were not able to so far. So I agree, these releases should get better sales when the installment base increases.
Just because certain games are off doesn't mean data physical is more accurate than digital for all games. In fact for all we know a lot physical data could be inaccurate, but the problem is we just don't have enough numbers to fully verify them. If you trust Famitsu's physical data, there is no reason to distrust their digital data.
I was responding to a person who disregarded certain numbers because they didn't fit their preconditioned expectations. This is ridiculous. If we start to cherry pick which numbers we trust and distrust, sales discussions would lead nowhere.
When they are on 3 systems ? A niche games stays niche even if its released on 5 instead of one or two systems. ..so the number of people who own a Switch but not any of the other systems and is interested in this game will be rather slow.
More importantly KT publishes most of their titles worldwide nowadays - they are building up the Switch to be their 3rd pillar between PC and consoles.
Are people expecting Koei Tecmo's games to do well on Switch?
I just assumed they'd all tank except maybe the Nintendo branded ones.
Nights of Azure 2 will underperform everywhere, it has bigger problems to face than low Switch numbers.
Because famitsu digital had been proven often that the number is not accurate. How hard is to see that? They are wrong on Splatoon number and now with Splat2. Thats why we never fully uses those number.
Just because one or two games are off doesn't mean the whole set of data regarding digital is off too. I mean why do you trust physical data then? We see major differences between trackers all the time. One of them must be wrong. By your logic, shouldn't these data also be considered inaccurate?
Meanwhile, every time we get real digital sales numbers, Famitsu's digital estimates are proven wrong. They're nowhere near as consistently reliable as their physical numbers.
I am unsure on what basis you expected this.
Okay lets slow down for a bit....even with Switch software selling reasonably well. The system installed base is still quite a bit lower compared to other plattforms - so there is a limit to how many games can sell/perform solid at the same time. Especially when talking about such niche releases.
And from the review reaction, i think this one is the one actually going to have chance of doing quite good for S-E.^^
Similarly, The Idolmaster is a straight up rhythm game with console quality graphics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIXWYeRcxBw
3.) There is some decentralization of the money being spent. Most notably, at their height, Puzzle & Dragons and Monster Strike were earning $4-$5 million a day. These days they're more in the $1-$2.5 million range, and the market size has increased dramatically since the time they were making that, so there's a lot more cash to go around to all the other titles. These days you have a lot more $100K to $2 million a day hits, which are all very profitable endeavors. $100K a day works out to $36.5 million a year, so you could even be averaging half that and making a financially significant profit on a lot of mobile titles.
I hope that helps make a bit more sense of the mobile market. In a lot of ways, it's actually pretty similar to the console one, if you just pretended every console game was a service title, or at minimum a singleplayer game like Hitman.
So in reality, my understanding was actually skewed in reverse of reality. The market *decentralized* and the major tops are actually more heavily competing with each other and the lower market than I thought. I had thought that the top earners would own almost the entirety of the market.
Nights of Azure 2 will underperform everywhere, it has bigger problems to face than low Switch numbers.
Switch version was supposed to prevent the decline and prove that these games can sell on Switch, so i am pretty sure it's a big problem.
Switch version was supposed to prevent the decline and prove that these games can sell on Switch, so i am pretty sure it's a big problem.
It's always funny how a single flop on a Nintendo system proves there's no market for that sort of game, while on other systems it's just a thing that happens
It's always funny how a single flop on a Nintendo system proves there's no market for that sort of game, while on other systems it's just a thing that happens