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[yurinka]

When was that confirmed?

Yay, MonHun to one million this week

With 3DS I think it was confirmed when the pricecut. With Vita it wasn't so clear, as I remember some said they were barely breaking even and other said they were loosing like $50 with every launch unit sold.

Sony stated they learned from PS3, so this time they weren't to loose a huge amount of money with launch systems. But I think they still are loosing money.

With DS and PSP HW is pretty clear they are winning money, so considering this week PSP and DS sales I assume PSP profit maybe is enough to cover Vita looses, while DS sales are too weak to cover anything.

This is why I think it's good for Vita to have PSP still selling until it becomes cheaper to produce and to make profit with Vita hardware.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

the thing is - if we judged every system on short term basis then we'd have burried the 3DS alive.

Next to the PS3.

and the Dreamcast (that one WAS actually dead when we threw it in there, to be fair)

Something something future lineup.

Even if they cratered upfront, 3DS and PS3 had announced games in the pipline that would move systems. Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Super Mario, Final Fantasy XIII, Gran Turismo 5, Metal Gear Solid 4, etc. Dreamcast meanwhile was bereft of any surefire huge game (Code: Veronica was probably it's biggest bet) and Vita finds itself in pretty much the same position (uh, FFXHD?).

 

[DCharlie]

You are right, but most people make pretty reasonable long-term assumptions based on what we know about the Vita's future line-up and it's simply not looking very good at all. And people said it before: The 3DS started quite a bit stronger than the Vita and didn't have such a shaky outlook.

Okay - i understand that Nintendo have franchise X,Y,Z and i appreciate that everyone knows those will drive the platform.

But the idea that , 3 weeks in launched in one location, that because we know nothing right now then we can extrapolate that out to mean there's nothing of note coming and definitely no system sellers? Nintendo obviously is the proven safe bet but i'm pretty sure we'll see some heavy hitters come to Vita in the next 12-18 months.

It may even be a misjudgement on Sonys part that people would just be so blown away by the launch line up that they could actually take a holiday at the years end!

 

[Alrus]

Okay - i understand that Nintendo have franchise X,Y,Z and i appreciate that everyone knows those will drive the platform.

But the idea that , 3 weeks in launched in one location, that because we know nothing right now then we can extrapolate that out to mean there's nothing of note coming and definitely no system sellers? Nintendo obviously is the proven safe bet but i'm pretty sure we'll see some heavy hitters come to Vita in the next 12-18 months.

I think people have these feelings because the 3DS had a few potentially big third party titles announced well before launch (KH, RE, and at the time MGS3D). While the Vita has nothing but a HD remaster (not exclusive) and a few promised games we've seen nothing about (Bioshock and CoD for example).

It's obviouslly not set in stone but I understand the feeling.

 

[Alexios]

With 3DS I think it was confirmed when the pricecut.

Any links?

All I've seen is guesses and estimates from third parties, nothing concrete.

 

[FoneBone]

But the idea that , 3 weeks in launched in one location, that because we know nothing right now then we can extrapolate that out to mean there's nothing of note coming and definitely no system sellers? Nintendo obviously is the proven safe bet but i'm pretty sure we'll see some heavy hitters come to Vita in the next 12-18 months.

Nobody's saying that there definitely won't be system sellers. But even putting first-party games aside, I'm still not seeing Vita exclusives equivalent to games like Kingdom Hearts 3D and RE Revelations... and those were announced way before the hardware launched.

 

[slaughterking]

Okay - i understand that Nintendo have franchise X,Y,Z and i appreciate that everyone knows those will drive the platform.

But the idea that , 3 weeks in launched in one location, that because we know nothing right now then we can extrapolate that out to mean there's nothing of note coming and definitely no system sellers? Nintendo obviously is the proven safe bet but i'm pretty sure we'll see some heavy hitters come to Vita in the next 12-18 months.

It's just a little desperate to point at system sellers that are not announced and impossible to predict, even though it's certainly fair to assume that those games may eventually appear.

 

[Celine]

the thing is - if we judged every system on short term basis then we'd have burried the 3DS alive.

Next to the PS3.

and the Dreamcast (that one WAS actually dead when we threw it in there, to be fair)

3DS first 3 weeks were good actually and it was launched in a slow period of the year
But you are right there need at least 2 years to get a good idea of a platform status ( and even then sometime it isn't enough, damn you PSP !)

Also it made me laugh reading about a game "legs" on the first three week span.

Speaking of DC launch the guy above I posted a phote came directly from it lol

 

[Barack Lesnar]

So the 3DS has almost a 4 million lead in Japan already. Anyone know how much it has sold in NA and Europe combined? I'll just guess and say 6 million by the time Vita launches in North America and Europe so the 3DS could have like a 10 million worldwide lead. I feel bad for Sony because the hardware and games seem so much better and they've been doing everything right save for the memory card shenanigans. It's a true next-gen handheld which I guess doesn't mean anything anymore. /sadface

 

[slaughterking]

Any links?

I think Iwata never actually said they would lose money on the hardware. There was some flowery phrasing during an investment call that essentially said this price cut would put "red ink on the paper" or something like that, but he didn't really specify what that means.

 

[jcm]

Any links?

All I've seen is guesses and estimates from third parties, nothing concrete.

Can you read Japanese? Andriasang says this story confirms the 3DS was selling at a loss, but I can't read the source article to confirm the translation.

Edit: This may be the sentence in question (but I'm using google translate to try to find it, so big grain of salt):

値下げ後の価格ではハードの販売だけでは赤字になるとした上で「いま手を打っておかないと来年以降の業績に明るいものが見えてこない」と強調した。

 

[Fafalada]

and it seems that Kinect was not, in fact, doomed.

Yep - it's just Kinect software that's doomed.

 

[Huff]

What's the list of upcoming games for Vita? Any semi-big ones?

 

[Alrus]

So the 3DS has almost a 4 million lead in Japan already. Anyone know how much it has sold in NA and Europe combined? I'll just guess and say 6 million by the time Vita launches in North America and Europe so the 3DS could have like a 10 million worldwide lead. I feel bad for Sony because the hardware and games seem so much better and they've been doing everything right save for the memory card shenanigans. It's a true next-gen handheld which I guess doesn't mean anything anymore. /sadface

It's at already at over 10 millions worldwide, probably 12 or even higher, depending on how sales went in Europe (they're probably good, but we don't have any solid numbers).

When is Nintendo's next quarterly report?

 

[DCharlie]

3DS first 3 weeks were good actually and it was launched in a slow period of the year

and it walked into a disaster too.

Game wise the launch was -not- so hot, and the following months were pretty painful. No complaints now though - everythings more than rosey.

I think though that that launch window of yawn is a distant memory and i suspect the Vita japan sluggish start will be forgotten once the line up solidifies over 2012.

While the Vita has nothing but a HD remaster (not exclusive) and a few promised games we've seen nothing about (Bioshock and CoD for example).

it's horses for course though - we have popular HD remasters of old games on 3DS too and only having snippets of info about future big titles puts the Vita in a similar position but without the -guaranteed- previous hand held success. It all depends on the execution of Biohazard/COD - if they truly are exclusive content, fully featured games in their own right then there's no reason for them to not do good numbers (installed base depending). IF all Vita is getting is HD ports (i seriously doubt Sony are going to let that fly on every game) then yes - the target userbase is going to be pretty damned narrow

 

[Sammy Samusu]

From the other thread:

01/19
StarStrike Delta
WipEout 2048

01/26
Tales of Innocence R

02/02
Ragnarok Odyssey

02/09
Gravity Daze
Sumioni

02/16
Kyoukugen Dasshutsu ADV: Zennin Shiboudesu

02/23
@Field
Little Busters! Converted Edition
Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus
Reality Fighters

03/13
Unit 13

 

[Alrus]

Lets hope Sony/3rd parties have better games coming in Q2/the rest of the year. Because that's a pretty mediocre line up (a bit better than the 3DS post launch lineup though).

Edit: I'm speaking sales-wise, some of these games are probably very good.

 

[Mpl90]

From the other thread:

And if we follows Comgnet, ToI R sales won't be pretty. At all. And it should be the best game for selling skills in the first two months.

 

[Gaborn]

and it walked into a disaster too.

Game wise the launch was -not- so hot, and the following months were pretty painful. No complaints now though - everythings more than rosey.

I think though that that launch window of yawn is a distant memory and i suspect the Vita japan sluggish start will be forgotten once the line up solidifies over 2012.

While this is probably true how long do you expect that to take in practical terms? When is the next "big" release scheduled for that will turn things around for Vita? For that matter how sustainable would any such "turnaround" be? I mean, there will of course be spikes but will anything be sustainable at the current price?

 

[Mpl90]

Ah, just for fun

03./04. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 51,101 / 800,000 (-45%)
02./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G <ACT> (Capcom) {2011-12-10} - 100.042 / 985.498

 

[ULTROS!]

Just wanting to confirm:

3DS - Selling at a loss
Vita - Selling at a profit or breakeven

Am I right?

 

[Alrus]

Just wanting to confirm:

3DS - Selling at a loss
Vita - Selling at a profit or breakeven

Am I right?

We don't know, it's never been said clearly that the 3DS was selling at a loss with the price cut, and it's never been said clearly that the Vita wasn't. All we have is relatively cryptic talk from both companies.

 

[UncleSporky]

Can you read Japanese? Andriasang says this story confirms the 3DS was selling at a loss, but I can't read the source article to confirm the translation.

Edit: This may be the sentence in question (but I'm using google translate to try to find it, so big grain of salt):

&#20516;&#19979;&#12370;&#24460;&#12398;&#20385;&#26684;&#12391;&#12399;&#12495;&#12540;&#12489;&#12398;&#36009;&#22770;&#12384;&#12369;&#12391;&#12399;&#36196;&#23383;&#12395;&#12394;&#12427;&#12392;&#12375;&#12383;&#19978;&#12391;&#12300;&#12356;&#12414;&#25163;&#12434;&#25171;&#12387;&#12390;&#12362;&#12363;&#12394;&#12356;&#12392;&#26469;&#24180;&#20197;&#38477;&#12398;&#26989;&#32318;&#12395;&#26126;&#12427;&#12356;&#12418;&#12398;&#12364;&#35211;&#12360;&#12390;&#12371;&#12394;&#12356;&#12301;&#12392;&#24375;&#35519;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290;

I ask this question all the time about this specific link, which is the only thing that has ever hinted at 3DS selling at a loss (besides logic, I guess, but we really can't assume).

Bloomberg says it's selling at a loss, and Iwata said that a major price cut was necessary to improve fiscal performance. But did Iwata himself say it was selling at a loss?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Ah, just for fun

03./04. [WII] Monster Hunter 3 (Capcom) - 51,101 / 800,000 (-45%)
02./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter Tri G <ACT> (Capcom) {2011-12-10} - 100.042 / 985.498

Will be interesting to see over the next couple of weeks whether this is the start of some real legginess, or just the leftover holiday explosion.

 

[jj984jj]

So before we get to ToI R, the shitty lazy looking DS up-port, bombing, what about Ace Combat 3D, which I think is suppose to be a decent remake/re-imagining of AC2?

 

[test_account]

And if we follows Comgnet, ToI R sales won't be pretty. At all. And it should be the best game for selling skills in the first two months.

But the userbase?

 

[ULTROS!]

We don't know, it's never been said clearly that the 3DS was selling at a loss with the price cut, and it's never been said clearly that the Vita wasn't. All we have is relatively cryptic talk from both companies.

I just checked and they're both selling at a loss:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=433075
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=438853

 

[extralite]

Can you read Japanese? Andriasang says this story confirms the 3DS was selling at a loss, but I can't read the source article to confirm the translation.

Edit: This may be the sentence in question (but I'm using google translate to try to find it, so big grain of salt):

&#20516;&#19979;&#12370;&#24460;&#12398;&#20385;&#26684;&#12391;&#12399;&#12495;&#12540;&#12489;&#12398;&#36009;&#22770;&#12384;&#12369;&#12391;&#12399;&#36196;&#23383;&#12395;&#12394;&#12427;&#12392;&#12375;&#12383;&#19978;&#12391;&#12300;&#12356;&#12414;&#25163;&#12434;&#25171;&#12387;&#12390;&#12362;&#12363;&#12394;&#12356;&#12392;&#26469;&#24180;&#20197;&#38477;&#12398;&#26989;&#32318;&#12395;&#26126;&#12427;&#12356;&#12418;&#12398;&#12364;&#35211;&#12360;&#12390;&#12371;&#12394;&#12356;&#12301;&#12392;&#24375;&#35519;&#12375;&#12383;&#12290;

Translation: After the price cut the new price will yield red numbers if only looking at the hardware sales (I guess that means without taking software sales into account), so he stressed that "we need to act now or our business outlook for next year and beyond will be gloomy/lacking perspective."

 

[olimpia84]

Just wanting to confirm:

3DS - Selling at a loss
Vita - Selling at a profit or breakeven

Am I right?

I don't know where people are getting this idea but if it's true that the 3DS is selling at a loss it's impossible for the Vita not to sell for a bigger loss. It's pure common sense.

 

[Road]

3DS first 3 weeks were good actually and it was launched in a slow period of the year

It might take 3 months for the Vita to sell what the 3DS sold in 3 weeks.

 

[Mpl90]

So before we get to ToI R, the shitty lazy looking DS up-port, bombing, what about Ace Combat 3D, which I think is suppose to be a decent remake/re-imagining of AC2?

Probably it'll bomb. Shinren Camera, instead... it could do something.

@test_account: I know, it's obvious, but I'm blaming Namco for the choice, since they selected the worst Tales of to port.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Translation: After the price cut the new price will yield red numbers if only looking at the hardware sales (I guess that means without taking software sales into account), so he stressed that "we need to act now or business will start to look gloomy after the beginning of next year."

Wasn't there also more in one of the investor meetings talking about costs coming down with increased production?

 

[extralite]

Wasn't there also more in one of the investor meetings talking about costs coming down with increased production?

I only translated the sentence quoted here but yeah I remember stagnating 3DS sales being a problem for reducing the manufacturing cost.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

So before we get to ToI R, the shitty lazy looking DS up-port, bombing, what about Ace Combat 3D, which I think is suppose to be a decent remake/re-imagining of AC2?

Totally going to bomba I think, but it's going to sell way better than it did in the US. Anyone have Assault Horizon and X-2 figures, those might give us some idea?

On the other hand, Ridge Racer did decently overall on 3DS and I suspect Tekken might too.

 

[Celine]

and it walked into a disaster too.

Game wise the launch was -not- so hot, and the following months were pretty painful. No complaints now though - everythings more than rosey.

Yeah before the pricecut 3DS sales weren't that good.
It sold 1.31M before the price cut, around 3M after ( but with the holidays and the holy trinity ).
Let's see how good Vita will do in the first 24 weeks...

I think though that that launch window of yawn is a distant memory and i suspect the Vita japan sluggish start will be forgotten once the line up solidifies over 2012.

I wouldn't bet on that.

 

[saichi]

I wonder when Vita will chart above 3DS. Will it happen this year? Knowing whether or not that MH rumour is true will help to predict. I can't see 3DS reducing to tremendously low numbers for a while to come, whereas it appears that Vita will soon be floating in the 10 - 20k region.

Maybe when the Gundam game is released.

 

[ULTROS!]

@test_account: I know, it's obvious, but I'm blaming Namco for the choice, since they selected the worst Tales of to port.

Can't be worse than Tales of the Tempest (I guess it was so bad that they denounced it as a mothership title).

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Will be interesting to see over the next couple of weeks whether this is the start of some real legginess, or just the leftover holiday explosion.

As far as percentage drops go, it's performing on par with MHP3 (both released in December).

If trends follow those of previous weeks, MH3G should sell around 70k next week, bringing it to a total of 1.05 million.

 

[Mpl90]

Totally going to bomba I think, but it's going to sell way better than it did in the US. Anyone have Assault Horizon and X-2 figures, those might give us some idea?

On the other hand, Ridge Racer did decently overall on 3DS and I suspect Tekken might too.

[PSP] Ace Combat X2: Joint Assault (Bandai Namco) - 73.951 / 136.806 / 54,06% 26/08/10

[PSP] Ace Combat X: Skies of Deception (Bandai Namco) - 52.312 / 116.176 / 45,03% 26/10/06

 

[TyRaNtM]

I don't think that 3DS is selling at loss.
But with Vita, is nearly sure that it is.
Also, the memory card trick from Sony (sell SD cards with propietary format at an absurd high price), is to make profit and able to sell the portable at less price than the machine was supposed to be priced.

 

[jcm]

Translation: After the price cut the new price will yield red numbers if only looking at the hardware sales (I guess that means without taking software sales into account), so he stressed that "we need to act now or our business outlook for next year and beyond will be gloomy/lacking perspective."

Thanks for the help.

And if we follows Comgnet, ToI R sales won't be pretty. At all. And it should be the best game for selling skills in the first two months.

The install base will be < 600K when it comes out. There's basically no way for the sales to be anything other than low.

 

[jj984jj]

Can't be worse than Tales of the Tempest (I guess it was so bad that they denounced it as a mothership title).

The whole "mothership title" thing didn't exist before Tempest, they came up that because of it.

 

[Mpl90]

Maybe when the Gundam game is released.

Mmmmmh, I wouldn't count so much on that Gundam, considering it has things from just Seed world and it's a Battle.

 

[Alrus]

Maybe when the Gundam game is released.

As shown by Gundam: the 3D battle on the 3DS, it probably won't do much.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Got the new/last week's Famitsu numbers up.

Mario Kart 7 has been pretty evenly between MKDS and MKWii, but its big week brings it nearly up to MKWii levels.

Super Mario 3D Land passes every 3D Mario platformer except for Super Mario 64 and Super Mario 64.

Monster Hunter Tri G passes where Wii's Tri was at 3 weeks.

All 3DS software, or as I now can't help but think of it, "donny's brontosaurus".

Kirby Mass Attack hits the charts again, and has now done the Kirby norm of quadrupling its first week sales. As of this week Return to Dream Land is at only 3.46x its first week.

PokéPark 2 is notable for having a week that more than doubled its first week.

It's also worth noting that Famitsu has Vita hardware 9K higher than Media Create did. They also have PS3 lower, so in Famitsu World, Vita > PS3. Very tall image.

- Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational is the best selling Golf game of the month

I don't know about that one.

the thing is - if we judged every system on short term basis then we'd have burried the 3DS alive.

Next to the PS3.

I don't anyone was that crazy.

OK, on second thought there are some pretty crazy people around here.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

At the risk of being picky, I think "donny's Brachiosaurus" would be more appropriate:

;-)

 

[test_account]

@test_account: I know, it's obvious, but I'm blaming Namco for the choice, since they selected the worst Tales of to port.

Why is ToI concidered such a bad game actually? I havnt tried it myself, but just wondering.

 

[Mpl90]

Got the new/last week's Famitsu numbers up.

Mario Kart 7 has been pretty evenly between MKDS and MKWii, but its big week brings it nearly up to MKWii levels.

Super Mario 3D Land passes every 3D Mario platformer except for Super Mario 64 and Super Mario 64.

Monster Hunter Tri G passes where Wii's Tri was at 3 weeks.

All 3DS software, or as I now can't help but think of it, "donny's brontosaurus".

Kirby Mass Attack hits the charts again, and has now done the Kirby norm of quadrupling its first week sales. As of this week Return to Dream Land is at only 3.46x its first week.

PokéPark 2 is notable for having a week that more than doubled its first week.

It's also worth noting that Famitsu has Vita hardware 9K higher than Media Create did. They also have PS3 lower, so in Famitsu World, Vita > PS3. Very tall image.


I don't know about that one.

I don't anyone was that crazy.

OK, on second thought there are some pretty crazy people around here.

I request for the brontosaurus' graph that someone put on the highest part the face of that brontosaurus linked to the meme "All my friends are dead", and to put under the graph "All my Vita is dead" [Takao]

 

[ULTROS!]

The whole "mothership title" thing didn't exist before Tempest, they came up that because of it.

I guess it means it's that bad.

 

[test_account]

I don't anyone was that crazy.

I think he means that both systems would be dead, not that they would sell equally.