3 million at the end of 2013
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Microsoft Q1: 2.4 M 360+XBO shipped
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
3 million at the end of 2013
SwiftDeath
Member
Based on the recorded YOY drops for previous quarters of 360 WW shipments maybe? I mean what are you using exactly to claim the XB1 shipped more in FY13/14_Q4? [Using calendar quarters in a quarterly report thread with a company with an offset FY is unhelpful I find]
And besides that's patently false
For say a 7.3M WW shipped estimate
5.1M shipped in FY13Q2+Q3, 650k shipped in FY13Q4, 1.55M shipped in FY14Q1 = 7.3M shipped WW
And that has XB1 selling more in FY13Q4
US sales of the 360 don't show to be great measures for WW shipments absolutely as shown here
For the XB1 to have shipped even 7.5M WW [which by the way I concede is a possibility], the 360 would have had to average a 55% drop YOY for the last two quarters in the table above. Any estimate that places XB1 shipments over 7.5M WW would naturally require 360 shipments drops for those two quarters to average higher than 55%. For instance, XB1 shipping 7.7M WW cumulatively would require the average drop for those two quarters to be 64% which the drops for the preceding three quarters do not at all suggest is likely
airmangataosenai
Member
You can channel stuff a platform only to a certain extent, they overshipped in CYQ1 with 800k 360's. Plus, the XBO in June outsold the entire quarter for the 360. To completely discount both the sales figures and the overshipment in Jan-Mar and just point to the percentages from previous quarters is fully useless. Shipments can fluctuate wildly and you can't pump units into retail endlessly if there's no demand for it. Sony products can sell under the radar but company's like Microsoft and Nintendo don't have as much sales presence in those markets that we have little information on so they can't hide where their sales are coming from the same way.
Your numbers for Q4 are closer to what I think they probably sold, but your Q1 , there's no way to make the numbers add up. You're estimating 360 shipments at 850k for a quarter they only managed to sell 200k to consumers in the US (Not even close actually)? The system has never ever even once had a multiplier that impressive.
The highest I could see for the 360 is maybe 600k, but even that would be pushing it.
SwiftDeath
Member
Right and I already qualified that a larger than previous YOY drop for shipments during FY13Q4 and FY14Q1 is likely hence why I accept an average drop of 55% across both as being a logical possibility. I did not discount the potential over-shipment in FY13Q4 as I accepted the YOY drops for the next two quarters were notably higher as I already dictated.
airmangataosenai
Member
CYQ1=FYQ3 for Microsoft, I was saying they overshipped in Jan-Mar, which makes an additional overshipment far outpacing the likely rate of sales to consumers in their fourth quarter for their fiscal year unlikely.
About the sell-through numbers, we know that WW PS4 was at 10 million in mid-August, up from 7 million in mid-April. That's 3 million in 4 months.
In the US, the Destiny launch caused PS4 sales to more than double compared to the previous month. If we assume that worldwide sales at least doubled too, then we are at 12.25+ million in mid-October. Maybe more if Destiny had any effect on PS4 sales outside its launch month.
XB1 sell-through is a bit harder to estimate but I think they are not close to 6 million.
If you assume that 6 million XB1 sold-through WW LTD, that would mean 1.4 million ROTW in 2014. Which seems implausibly high given that XB1 sales in continental Europe have mostly stalled in 2014:
In the US, the Destiny launch caused PS4 sales to more than double compared to the previous month. If we assume that worldwide sales at least doubled too, then we are at 12.25+ million in mid-October. Maybe more if Destiny had any effect on PS4 sales outside its launch month.
XB1 sell-through is a bit harder to estimate but I think they are not close to 6 million.
Code:
| US | ROTW | WW
-------------+------+------+--------
2013 Nov+Dec | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3.0
2014 Jan-Sep | 1.6 | ??? | 4.6+???If you assume that 6 million XB1 sold-through WW LTD, that would mean 1.4 million ROTW in 2014. Which seems implausibly high given that XB1 sales in continental Europe have mostly stalled in 2014:
I'd rather put ROTW sell-through at 0.8 million YTD which gives us 5.4 million WW LTD by the end of September.
100k in China was the biggest tier 2 launch I think. In contrast, India reportedly received a [post=132154070]launch shipment of only 4k consoles[/post]. I expect that most other tier 2 countries were closer to India than to China.
regenhuber88
Banned
who cares?
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Even with Mario 3D world? Holy moly, I guess the writing has been on the wall for that console for quite some time...
Financial results have been posted and discussion on GAF for years. If you don't care, you don't have to click on those threads.
Read some of the previous 409 posts and you might find out.
What on earth possessed you to think this post would be a good idea?
Can I ask why you are in this thread?
boredandlazy
Member
About your member status? Obviously not you.
You apparently care enough to make a stupid drive-by post.
Have you taken into account the 360 hitting 84 million LTD?
Edit: Nevermind, I made a mistake adding up the XB1 sales which put it too low. 360 should according to my very crude estimates take up at least 0.3m of last two quarter's Xbox shipments.
No one's forcing you to post in threads like this, y'know. If you or anyone else don't like these kind of threads, then you shouldn't post in them. Simple as that.
Has there been any updates from "tier 2" countries?
Chobel
Member
Should be somewhere around 5.8 Million, and maybe it reached 6 million.
AmaterasuOni
Banned
Nope. But it has "not sold at all". It was like everyone said: DOA, because every Tier 2 country have had their import Xbones since the official launch in 2013 (and these countries are "sonylands" as some people say). So my questimate is 2095,5 consoles sold after the actual launch.
And this is interesting. I'm really suprised that the old Nokia has some momentum.
In my opinion I think close to 6.5-7 been sold with 8-9 being shipped. Then again SO preorders and COD preorders may not have done as well as I may think they may do. Time will tell.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
You mean as of September 30th? Then, no 9 million have not been shipped, as has already been discussed it it between 7.2 and about 7.5 million. If you mean to the present, no, Microsoft did not ship another 1.5 million in the last three weeks. If you mean by the end of this current quarter, then no, they will ship more than 9 million if stores will take them.
Ok. I was kind of projecting for shipped through the end of Oct. Sorry.
Is the amount of 360s sold still have a decent amount of the sales/shipped pie? And I know this sounds like a stupid question, but do preorders of bundles that have not been delivered to the consumers yet get factored into these numbers?
I hope Microsoft continues to have their asses handed to them for some time. Microsoft (and pretty much every multi billion dollar corporation) becomes complacent when they're sitting pretty in a market. They're on a great trajectory, which is a byproduct of them getting a rude awakening. Hopefully it continues.
I did above, and I estimated about 5.4 million:
I would like to know how you arrived at your estimate that XB1 reached 6.5-7 million sold-through.
Whatt??
Anuson.Phan
Banned
How is Xbone numbers looking? 6-7 Million?
Seems like most reasonable estimates are between about 5.8M and 6M
LOL - wat you smokin?
I just think a lot less Xbox 360 moved.. Aka more XBO's sold than the estimated 1.7mil. Its my optimistic opinion.
Welfare
Member
So you think that for 2014, ROTW sales fell farther behind the US, even with what September had? I would say ROTW is 1.0-1.1 million at the end of September, bringing total LTD to 5.6-5.7 million units.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
World of Mouthcraft
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
nvm
icecoldkilla
Banned
Way to go microsoft! so around 7m+ sold and 9+ shipped.
No. (how do people arrive at these figures!)
6m~ sell through and 7.2 - 7.6m shipped.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
How the hell did you get that?
SuperSonic1305
Member
Junior member, Xbox avatar, pro Xbox post history. Just before the holidays. Not suspicious at all.
I wanted to be a dick to icecoldkilla. Say something about not reading the thread or at least this page. But s/he is new here, so I should just say that next time try to read mate.
RealityPales
Member
thelastcrusader
Banned
Some people are just too funny.
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2014/10/analysis-worldwide-ps4-sales-at-least-40-percent-better-than-xbox-one/
Interesting read about the numbers you might enjoy.
Don't read too much into it...
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2013/11/dont-read-too-much-into-the-ps4s-million-day-one-sales/
Nightengale
Member
Mildly hilarious in consideration of the NPD numbers that we know.
Granted, he did say pessimistic assumption, but it's pretty much wrong anyway. =P