Mass Effect
Member
I think it's a bit too early to be assuming that.
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Microsoft Q1: 2.4 M 360+XBO shipped
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
I think it's a bit too early to be assuming that.
El-Pistolero
Member
Nope, they must be around 12 million SOLD through.
But that's a positive for the X360 though. It was supply constrained and yet still outpaced the X1 during the same time period.
well I'm expecting ridiculous bundle sales as well. If they were able to sell 300k last month off the strength of 1 week with a free game in September, I expect a week of black friday with halo and COD coming out and the same deal ( with SO, COD, and Asscreed bundles all counting) sales, to destroy that.
Welfare
Member
The graph was talking about 2014 sales between the 2, not overall.
The One was able to have a lot of supply for launch, so most sales happened there. The 360 couldn't have the same benefit at launch, so sales were bigger 2006 as a result.
Predictions usually come "a bit early", otherwise they aren't predictions.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
In North America most certainly. But I do not think France nor Germany are going to be buying these boxes for Halo at anywhere near the same level as their western counterparts. Even with great bundling from Microsoft Europe is still going to swing Sony for the holidays.
Brad Grenz
Member
I don't think they will come close to matching the launch period sales from last year.
Sales have flatlined outside the US. There is approximately zero chance sales outside North America will come anywhere close to your projection. I can see 1.5M in the US, but it will be less than half of that everywhere else.
My expectation is Xbox One will have sold through less than 8M by the end of 2014. It took 9 months for it to go from 3M to 5.7M this year, and I expect even slower sales through most of 2015. Ergo, it will be late summer next year before Xbox One crosses 10M sold through.
Welfare
Member
You expect the One to sell less in the next 3 months than last years November and December, even with more games, $399, and more countries to sell in? That's really low balling what the One can do.
Mass Effect
Member
Fair enough.
Are you talking worldwide? Because I just realized that I was assuming you meant US-only. But if you're talking WW, then I'd probably have to agree with you.
Nightengale
Member
Last year's holiday was the launch period for the consoles.
Brad Grenz
Member
You must not have been paying very close attention to what's been happening all year with Xbox One sales.
Welfare
Member
And the One is $399, 3 bundles, and has a Halo game coming out. I believe every console so far sans Wii U has always done better in the first holiday after launch. I don't see how the One sells less this year compared to last.
What, how in January the sales fell like a rock because people that would've gotten one got it in November/December, or how in February/March sales spiked do to the Titanfall hype, and then in April less consumers bought one due to getting the Titanfall bundle, and the console being $499?
Then in May where MS basically said "Don't buy it yet! $399 next month!" and very little did buy one in May, and when it became $399, sales spiked again and have been pretty consistent since then. You can apply this to both the US and WW. I think you are just grossly underestimating the Ones ability to sell, just because of early hiccups in sales.
shinra-bansho
Member
The PS3 exceeded 10M sold-in by the end of CY2007. It's US cumulative sell-through aligned was considerably worse, although it's non-US sales were presumably better given the XBO is essentially already dead in Japan. For reference, I have the PS3's sell-through from Gfk/Nintendo's old charts at around 2.1M for the UK, FR, GE and SP to the end of 2007. It's Japanese sales were around 1.6M. And it's US sales were 3.25M through 2007, which is about a quarter million less than the XBO's through September.
Given that, expecting the XBO to not reach 10M sold-in until the end of MS's current fiscal year or beyond seems like a stretch.
Given that, expecting the XBO to not reach 10M sold-in until the end of MS's current fiscal year or beyond seems like a stretch.
That was because it was launch period. Console launches always have the biggest sales each generation.
I don't expect Xbox One to sell 3 million worldwide this November & December like last year during their launch months, IMO. Everyone knows what Xbox One & PS4 are now.
Worldwide, no question.
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For U.S. only: I still think the Xbox One sells slightly worse this year than last:
Last year, Nov+Dec for the Xbox One was around 1.8M U.S.
To get to 1.8 this year, Oct+Nov+Dec '14 would have to be something like 300k+500k+1M. I don't think it will do that.
Nightengale
Member
I'm not saying XB1 can't sell better than last year. I don't have enough foresight to make that prediction.
However "launch" is just as much a selling point as are all the points you listed above. Plus it's harder to compare this gen's launch months vs last gen's launch months, as this is the first generation where consoles had a really, really strong front loaded sales.
shinra-bansho
Member
I do get the pessimism regarding non-US sales.
I am somewhat curious what's causing people to arrive at, for instance, the idea that a 1.8M Oct-Dec US quarter is outside of likelihood. And what kind of expectations people actually have for it.
Besides one month of gen/gen comp between the PS3 and XBO the latter has consistently outsold the former. That month coincided with a PS3 price cut.
YTD the latter has sold around 500K more than the former.
In terms of revenue (note not units, and inclusive of software and accessories) the holiday quarter typically accounts for 50% or more of industry sales for the year.
The PS3 sold 1.38M that holiday quarter to the 1.17M it sold the 9 months prior.
The XBO's US YTD is 1.67M.
I am somewhat curious what's causing people to arrive at, for instance, the idea that a 1.8M Oct-Dec US quarter is outside of likelihood. And what kind of expectations people actually have for it.
Besides one month of gen/gen comp between the PS3 and XBO the latter has consistently outsold the former. That month coincided with a PS3 price cut.
YTD the latter has sold around 500K more than the former.
In terms of revenue (note not units, and inclusive of software and accessories) the holiday quarter typically accounts for 50% or more of industry sales for the year.
The PS3 sold 1.38M that holiday quarter to the 1.17M it sold the 9 months prior.
The XBO's US YTD is 1.67M.
Liabe Brave
Member
Microsoft said:
They expect One growth, but it won't "pick up the slack". They're predicting the Surface/Xbox division revenue will nevertheless decline by ~19-23% YOY. (And that's even with Surface profits going up.)
Not that I necessarily agree with him even so, but Brad Grenz specifically stated he was predicting sold-through, not sold-in.
SwiftDeath
Member
Most estimates for XB1 shipped are more in the 7.3M - 7.5M range
Sold through hasn't been discussed as much. Maybe I'll try my hand at an estimate for that in this thread
Plausible enough.
Sales have improved WW since they dropped Kinect and cut the price as well. I just think the majority of the shipments for Xbox are mainly for the X1. Why ship say 1m for the 360 when its not even selling 100k on the NPD.
I have it pegged at between 5.5m-6m sold.
Shipped at a little over 7m+
I expect about about 8.5m XB1 sold by the end of the year.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Has there been a console yet where second holiday was lower than the first? Regardless, by January Xbox had no major shortages, but November and December last year had some stock issues (not PS4 level, but still real problems). They really want to win the holiday and have to stock not one, not two, not three, not four, not even five, but six different SKUs for this Quarter (White bundle, Solo, Kinect, COD, Assassin's solo, and Assassin's kinect). They are going to ship 2 million plus for North America. Will they all sell? We will know in three months, but I have no doubt they will ship that many.
I'm rooting for the Wii U this holiday.
Hope it can hold on to its second place standing going into 2015
I'm fairly confident that the Xbox One will sell more in the US during the holiday than the Wii U will in something like US + Japan. Europe is probably favoring the Xbox One more than the Wii U as well, so it really is just a matter of time until it overtakes it if it hasn't already.
Don't think so. Evidence is that WiiU performs really solid in mainland EU and Xbone is really far behind everywhere outside of NA and UK. Will be nice to see who performs better overall, but honsetly, WiiU was shipped about the same numbers as Xbone last year and people called it a flop already. The numbers are pretty bad actually and I don't see any consumer shift towards Microsoft.
theprodigy
Member
Is this a joke?
NemesisPrime
Banned
hahaha i hope this is a joke.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
you know how it is.....oh WiiU is doing okay in France, it must be doing well in Europe -__-
El-Pistolero
Member
Sounds reasonable. I am expecting 2,5 to 3 million additional sales (to customers) worldwide during the last quarter for the Xbox One, which should bring the total sales of the consoles somewhere within a 8 to 9 millions total.
Only if Sony stop selling PS4.
These threads always bring out the crazies
Italy, Spain, France, Germany and several smaller markets in EU if I remember correctly.
We have data for it and there were offical threads for all this. In every of those markets WiiU sells better than Xbone. Still, the sales are pretty low though but enough to still be in front of Microsoft so far.
Id be shocked if it hit that figure sold, that would mean the next two months selling record numbers.
Pretty much yes. Should be around 2:1 globally.
"Better than Xbox One" and "really solid" are two entirely different things in mainland Europe.
Then excuse my "really solid" phrase. It sells better, if that's is ok.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
You're logic is flawed. The supposed lead (you got any links) in those countries will be very small. XB1's UK lead may very well eclipse the sum of leads in those countries.
Think about weighting not just oh WiiU has outsold XB1 in 4 countries while XB1 has only outsold WiiU in 1 country.
theprodigy
Member
The argument isn't really that Xbox One is winning in mainland Europe or anything, it's that since Wii U still sucks there it's not enough to overcome the UK margin (on a YTD basis obviously).
(not to mention the US+Japan combined margins, Canada/Australia/etc.)
Psycho_Mantis did you even get my PM?
airmangataosenai
Member
Also, I don't know if it's been discussed here but the Wii U at just under 6.7 million, meaning that even if you used the extremely unrealistically low estimates used earlier in the thread of 7.3 million for the XBO (It is almost certainly somewhere north of 7.5 million), even if the Wii U matched it's performance from the quarter that Mario Kart launched it would still fall short. We have no idea what the sell through for either platform really is despite what some here might have you believe, but the Wii U shipments have indeed fallen behind the XBO worldwide as of this quarter.
NemesisPrime
Banned
You remembered wrong.
SwiftDeath
Member
Firstly, I agree that shipments of XB1 have surpassed Wii U shipments worldwide and they will clearly widen the gap going forward
Secondly, how is 7.3M extremely unrealistically low for an estimate of cumulative XB1 WW shipments and how are shipments almost certainly north of 7.5M?
Xbone is now around 6 mil. sold to consumers. You really think that Xbone will be sold in 3.5-4 mil. units by the end of the year? That's insane predictions. There is no launch hype anymore. I wouldn't dare to predict that sale numbers for PS4 also.
I doubt it's at 6 million.
And I can't imagine XB1 would nearly double by the end of 2014.
Good point.
airmangataosenai
Member
For starters, the number assumes that in the second calendar year quarter, the person making the estimate assumes that the 360 outshipped the XBO for..... reasons? The second thing is that they are probably overestimating how the 360 performed this quarter as well, especially given how poorly the system sold the past three months in America, given that the USA accounts for roughly half of all of the system's sales to date.