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[Terrell]

He's just parroting the longtime philosophy advanced by Genyo Takeda, which is that game hardware isn't just about pushing the limits of performance but is also about finding a way to achieve efficiency for the consumer - the common analogy is about cars, where there's a lucrative, prestige-driven market for high-performance vehicles but most consumers just want a fuel-efficient, family-friendly vehicle that gets them around.

Nintendo obviously isn't going to fit with the high-performance market; they would be doing themselves (and the consumers who justify the direction they go with their games) a disservice by pursuing that direction. And Miyamoto isn't saying anything we haven't been hearing for the last 10 years.

We're talking as though PS4 and XBO are "high-performance", when they're actually pretty modest hardware-wise for a console released in 2013 from them. Not a joke, by any means, but certainly not performance-pushers, as GAF has discussed at length.
Seems like Sony and MS bent towards Nintendo's way of thinking instead of it being the other way around if Nintendo equals their performance output 3 years later.

I think the failure of the GamePad to capture the imagination of the market has resulted in a lot of people sleepwalking into the presumption that NX will just be a traditional gaming box with a traditional interface.

I'm not so convinced Nintendo is ready to shed its philosophy of looking for a unique hook - a 'gimmick' for want of a better word - to marry with affordable hardware

It's why I kind of think the price debate is a little moot.

I think they will go hunting for a hook again, whether it be controller, interface, or something more nuanced.

Nintendo's "hooks" are typically mature and inexpensive technologies that they leverage well. No one is saying there won't be a hook this time, merely that whatever it is won't be breaking the bank and thus is mostly irrelevant to the discussion until Nintendo says something about it, which for the most part they haven't.

 

[Fourth Storm]

I think the failure of the GamePad to capture the imagination of the market has resulted in a lot of people sleepwalking into the presumption that NX will just be a traditional gaming box with a traditional interface.

I'm not so convinced Nintendo is ready to shed its philosophy of looking for a unique hook - a 'gimmick' for want of a better word - to marry with affordable hardware

It's why I kind of think the price debate is a little moot.

I think they will go hunting for a hook again, whether it be controller, interface, or something more nuanced.

There is def a hook and it is apparently unlike anything they have done before. No idea what, but I don't think they will reinvent controls again.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

Impossible to know, and even Tamaki didn't know when he made the original tweet.

Yeah it always gonna be impossible since we sont know for sure.. and I dont pay much attention him so thats does nothing for me.

 

[Vena]

There is def a hook and it is apparently unlike anything they have done before. No idea what, but I don't think they will reinvent controls again.

Given everything we've seen and heard, I think its going to be the software overlap and symbiosis between handheld and console and mobile. An "expansive and continuous software environment" so to speak.

The PS4/Vita cross-buy/play taken further and expanded upon.

I don't think Gen 1 NX will have time or the luxury of introducing expensive hardware hooks, or trying to reinvent the wheel on software delivery.

 

[Clefargle]

I think the failure of the GamePad to capture the imagination of the market has resulted in a lot of people sleepwalking into the presumption that NX will just be a traditional gaming box with a traditional interface.

I'm not so convinced Nintendo is ready to shed its philosophy of looking for a unique hook - a 'gimmick' for want of a better word - to marry with affordable hardware

It's why I kind of think the price debate is a little moot.

I think they will go hunting for a hook again, whether it be controller, interface, or something more nuanced.

Yeah, remember that whatever the NX is, it's features were most likely the result of Iwata's influence. This might be his final "hook".

 

[ConceptX]

I wonder if Square would consider FFXV (and KHIII) for the NX as well.

There is a sizable FF fanbase on Nintendo hardware (from the SFC era/Crystal Chronicles, various remakes) and half of the KH games are on Nintendo handhelds.

I haven't followed recent developments regarding the NX so forgive my ignorance, and I feel like I'm quite jaded from the Wii and Wii U's capabilities.

So with that in mind, is there any indication the NX would actually be able to run something like FFXV?

 

[LegendofLex]

Yeah but a car analogy doesn't really make a lot of sense in the electronics space where the wattage difference is going to be pretty minimal, and you're still paying $350 instead of $400 upfront. It's not like a 20k car vs a $70k car and 40mpg vs 15mpg. You're also talking about transportation which is a relative necessity versus a videogame machine.

The benefits to the consumer from a efficient car aren't really about energy usage. They're more about total cost of ownership and the emphasis on the job of the car vs. the performance potential of the car.

We're talking as though PS4 and XBO are "high-performance", when they're actually pretty modest hardware-wise for a console released in 2013 from them. Not a joke, by any means, but certainly not performance-pushers, as GAF has discussed at length.
Seems like Sony and MS bent towards Nintendo's way of thinking instead of it being the other way around if Nintendo equals their performance output 3 years later.

The console space isn't the PC space. Consoles priced at above $350 were not the norm more than ten years ago. Based on the concentration of the audience for consoles to a smaller demographic (I understand many people are in denial about this), it's clear the shift away from mass market pricing toward a "AAA first" mentality pretty closely resembles the performance car market.

 

[AndyD]

Yeah, remember that whatever the NX is, it's features were most likely the result of Iwata's influence. This might be his final "hook".

Indeed.

Most interesting to me is whether they will finally break backwards compatibility to move the tech forward in a significant way. At a $2-300 price point in late 2016, early 2017 they should be able to relatively match PS4/One in power, but if they again have a bespoke expensive side "hook" like the tablet, then the main console will suffer dramatically.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Given everything we've seen and heard, I think its going to be the software overlap and symbiosis between handheld and console and mobile. An "expansive and continuous software environment" so to speak.

The PS4/Vita cross-buy/play taken further and expanded upon.

I don't think Gen 1 NX will have time or the luxury of introducing expensive hardware hooks, or trying to reinvent the wheel on software delivery.

I'm under the impression that the hook is more than just the unified OS/architecture. Remember, it's not necessarily building on something that exists. It's a brand new concept.

 

[Papacheeks]

Indeed.

Most interesting to me is whether they will finally break backwards compatibility to move the tech forward in a significant way. At a $2-300 price point in late 2016, early 2017 they should be able to relatively match PS4/One in power, but if they again have a bespoke expensive side "hook" like the tablet, then the main console will suffer dramatically.

It needs to be $199-249, there will be more competition next year in software and hardware. Doing $300 price tagt again is committing console suicide regardless of the hook. And since they will not be doing VR, the only thing I can come up with is their system will be able to see your mobile devices.

You can use your phone with the console as a controller or device. Imagine holding your bar phone in one hand and making a swinging gesture. Or maybe they have universal grip strap you put your phone into.

It's either that or the new Handheld will be included in a deluxe sku for $299, which would make sense and be a huge value.

The handheld is the controller. Or if you buy the 199 sku you download the NIntendo NX Portal app and connect to the console for control and have the ability to play Nintendo classics through the App/service.

 

[ZOONAMI]

The benefits to the consumer from a efficient car aren't really about energy usage. They're more about total cost of ownership and the emphasis on the job of the car vs. the performance potential of the car.



The console space isn't the PC space. Consoles priced at above $350 were not the norm more than ten years ago. Based on the concentration of the audience for consoles to a smaller demographic (I understand many people are in denial about this), it's clear the shift away from mass market pricing toward a "AAA first" mentality pretty closely resembles the performance car market.

Before XB1 and PS4 the consoles were generally more powerful than PC gpus on release. I don't know if that will ever happen again though as high end GPUs have become extremely expensive.

 

[Terrell]

The console space isn't the PC space. Consoles priced at above $350 were not the norm more than ten years ago. Based on the concentration of the audience for consoles to a smaller demographic (I understand many people are in denial about this), it's clear the shift away from mass market pricing toward a "AAA first" mentality pretty closely resembles the performance car market.

And consoles priced above $250 weren't the norm until the mid-90s. Here's a little secret I'll let you in on: Norms change. As does the value of currency thanks to inflation, which has an impact on how things are priced.

And compared to what the PS3 and 360 were on their release, yes, PS4 and XBO are modest consoles, there has been much debate around this and people have come to this conclusion, considering how quickly that Sony at least started making a profit on hardware sales after launch. Vita was designed to make money off the hardware almost at day one, as well, in contrast to the PSP at the time of its launch. So this isn't some new shocking revelation, either.

It's very clear that Sony and Microsoft bent towards modest hardware not sold at a loss, just as Nintendo has been doing for years (though not as drastically), and so any statement that says they're in the "performance car" market like the PS3 and 360 were is patently false.

 

[iBlue]

I am expecting something similar to the PS4 to be honest..

 

[Vena]

I'm under the impression that the hook is more than just the unified OS/architecture. Remember, it's not necessarily building on something that exists. It's a brand new concept.

Got any ideas on what that might be? I'm honestly at a bit of a loss trying to think what they've cooked up that would exceed that and not be utterly insane all the same.

 

[KC-Slater]

Consoles priced at above $350 were not the norm more than ten years ago.

Taking inflation in to account, console prices have actually remained pretty steady over the last 30 years.

Source

 

[atbigelow]

It does indicate though. Unless you think SE is dedicating resources to port UE4 to Nintendo. I think it is more likely it is powerful enough to run it natively.

Didn't someone port UE3 to Wii for a game?

You're right. I meant it as "we know it's powerful enough to get UE4 running at this stage." That doesn't give any kind of ballpark rather than "better than Wii U", which we pretty much figured.

 

[Rodin]

You're right. I meant it as "we know it's powerful enough to get UE4 running at this stage." That doesn't give any kind of ballpark rather than "better than Wii U", which we pretty much figured.

Epic set the minimum requirement for UE4 support though. 1 teraflop.

I can see a 1tflop console at ~250$ happening in 2016, but there are a lot of things we don't know yet. So it remains a possibility, but nothing more than that, with some things that seem to "confirm" that the console will be in that ballpark and others that seem to encourage a more pessimistic vision.

 

[Oregano]

Square Enix is one of the biggest licensees for UE4 and probably Epic Japan's biggest client. If they wanted UE4 on a system Epic would pretty much have to do it.

 

[LizardKing]

Taking inflation in to account, console prices have actually remained pretty steady over the last 30 years.

Source

So in other words N64, Dreamcast, Gamecube and Wii are the only major consoles in history to release at under $350 in today's money and nothing in the history of major consoles has released for less than $264 in today's money (and we all know what an awesome value the Gamecube was.) The Wii was the only sales success and we all know why that was (you're not replicating it). You would think this would shut people up about a super cheap box but it wont.

 

[Toadthemushroom]

Given everything we've seen and heard, I think its going to be the software overlap and symbiosis between handheld and console and mobile. An "expansive and continuous software environment" so to speak.

The PS4/Vita cross-buy/play taken further and expanded upon.

I don't think Gen 1 NX will have time or the luxury of introducing expensive hardware hooks, or trying to reinvent the wheel on software delivery.

This. Iwata expressed three concerns last year about Nintendo's current way of doing things:

1) The cyclical nature of a console generation means the tide can easily turn in favour of a competitor or different platform holder when a new generation rolls around.
2) Every new generation begins with an effective software library of zero, making it very risky to launch brand new hardware
3) Software shortages when Nintendo and other developers try to juggle developing for 3DS and Wii U. It's one or the other, one tends to cannibalise the other too.

Based on comments from Iwata from both this year and last, the NX platform is aimed at tackling these issues by giving developers a way program for all NX hardware at once -- Iwata cited iOS and the iPhone/iPad/iPod Touch as examples. That solves 3) as developers can target either an NX handheld or NX console or larger iPad like NX handheld or whatever the form factors are, and optimise quickly and cheaply for each configuration. Like you mention, it also makes "cross-buy" work for more widely like it does on iOS and Android. By making it low-cost to target each system, cross-buy can become prevalent and sustainable across the entire platform, not just for independent games and the odd first party offering.

This will be a scalable platform that will retain its software library over generations, much like iOS software or PC software does (Valve is in a position to benefit from that). That solves problems 1 and 2. Indeed, Valve is exposed to little risk at the moment, having built up an extensive library of software and contracts in the long term. Any new competitor hoping to do battle with them in the PC space will need to start from zero, much like Microsoft will be with the Windows 10 storefront.

Nintendo's thus exposed to less risk the longer the platform keeps going for. In the short-term, 3DS, Wii U and Amiibo for those platforms shields them from risk. In the long term, even if NX has a tiny software library at launch, the platform will continue to develop and evolve over time that there will be a point at which it eventually becomes "good enough".

Nintendo can also release new hardware or form factors without having to start from scratch; they can fend off competitors much more easily as well. If Sony actually does end up making another handheld, Nintendo can release a "New NX handheld" while still allowing developers to maintain compatibility with the older handheld.

This is doable in the long run. iOS Devices from 2011 with the Apple A5 SoC still receive regular updates from Apple and support from developers, and they are approaching 5 years old now. The iPad 2 launched on the same day as the 3DS in some countries -- by the time developers and Apple stop supporting it it'll be at least as long as a standard console generation. Furthermore, the iPod Touch has been cannibalised sales-wise by the iPad, yet developing across all the various iOS hardware configurations is low-cost enough that Apple can continue supporting it, and developers continue to targeting it with their software.

So Iwata's comments about not knowing whether only one device may be needed in the future suggests Nintendo will test the waters with several form factors at first, and is unafraid to let one rule over the other. For example, an NX Handheld XL with a higher screen resolution and more real estate that developers can actually use (versus the 3DS XL which developers cannot target specifically) might cannibalise NX Handheld sales. It won't be the end for anyone buying or supporting the original NX Handheld though, and Nintendo would have been able to take the platform in a new direction with the theoretical NX Handheld XL.

Nintendo just needs to make sure the first set of hardware is future proof so they can ensure developers are able to support it for a long period of time. That way they can release new form factors and hardware without peeving off owners of early gen hardware who might not upgrade immediately. They should also encourage developers to adopt a "bottom-up" approach for some of their games, so that they still work great on older hardware before its lifecycle is up. That goes hand in hand with ensuring the first set of NX hardware is futureproof at the time when it launches.

Investing in DeNA for services and to build a new cloud based platform is smart -- Nintendo will likely want things to be as seamless as possible when switching between hardware on the NX platform.

 

[atbigelow]

Epic set the minimum requirement for UE4 support though. 1 teraflop.

iPhones don't have 1TF, yet there are UE4 iOS games already released.

 

[TheXfactor]

i kinda wish the nx speculation thread wasn't locked, mainly because we have to update random threads about the nx to talk about it. was it against the rules to have that thread so early in the game?

 

[AmyS]

Great post, Toadthemushroom.

 

[Rodin]

iPhones don't have 1TF, yet there are UE4 iOS games already released.

We're not talking about Unreal Engine 4 mobile though, otherwise we would have already seen the engine on the Wii U and some UE4 games downported/ported from mobile by using it.

When we discuss UE4 we refer to the full, desktop engine, ported by Epic for the platform and then regularly updated. To get that, you have to meet some minimum requirements. They are, again, set at 1tflop for the GPU.

 

[Toadthemushroom]

Great post, Toadthemushroom.

Thank you, I appreciate it. Sorry if it's a little awkward to read -- was typing it up on my phone.

 

[LegendofLex]

Taking inflation in to account, console prices have actually remained pretty steady over the last 30 years.

Looking purely at currency value, sure, but it's not as though the conditions for today's consumers are as favorable as they were for consumers in the '80s, '90s, and mid '00s. Today's macroeconomic environment is completely new for the games industry. Japan has an aging population; the US has a tougher housing market, ridiculous healthcare costs, and huge student loan debt;

Before XB1 and PS4 the consoles were generally more powerful than PC gpus on release. I don't know if that will ever happen again though as high end GPUs have become extremely expensive.

And consoles priced above $250 weren't the norm until the mid-90s. Here's a little secret I'll let you in on: Norms change. As does the value of currency thanks to inflation, which has an impact on how things are priced.

And compared to what the PS3 and 360 were on their release, yes, PS4 and XBO are modest consoles, there has been much debate around this and people have come to this conclusion, considering how quickly that Sony at least started making a profit on hardware sales after launch. Vita was designed to make money off the hardware almost at day one, as well, in contrast to the PSP at the time of its launch. So this isn't some new shocking revelation, either.

It's very clear that Sony and Microsoft bent towards modest hardware not sold at a loss, just as Nintendo has been doing for years (though not as drastically), and so any statement that says they're in the "performance car" market like the PS3 and 360 were is patently false.

Sure, but before PS3 and Xbox 360 they were able to achieve higher end performance without necessarily doubling the hardware cost at launch. There was no way that was going to happen again after the way those two platforms performed profitability-wise, so instead we've seen what appears to be a relative return to sanity.

Even when we consider PS4 and Xbox One to be a backpedal from the trajectory of PS3 and Xbox 360, there's still a very extreme difference between the way that hardware performance is approached by Microsoft and Sony vs. the way it was approached by Nintendo with Wii U, 3DS, Wii, DS, Game Boy, and even NES.

1) The cyclical nature of a console generation means the tide can easily turn in favour of a completely different platform holder when a new generation rolls around.
2) Every new generation begins with a brand new software library, making it very risky to launch brand new hardware

I suspect that these two problems are linked, and that's part of the reason why I'm fairly certain that all the talk about NX building on the Wii U architecture must have something to do with the idea of the permanent software library that removes risk for consumers, not just toolchains for developers or even just future-proofing of all hardware AFTER Wii U. I can't imagine they'd put so much effort into getting things like GBA and DS games working on Wii U if they weren't part of their future-proof vision.

Notice how PS2, Wii, and 3DS - the only platforms to really offer seamless/compromise-free backward compatibility - all were standouts in their respective categories. As for the other consoles to attempt it:

- Xbox 360's backward compatibility was never strong, since it only supported a limited catalog of titles.
- PS3's backward compatibility with PS2 was kind of a mess (both in terms of its impact on the price and the subsequent solutions once the HW BC was removed)
- Wii U's was always seen as disappointing from the moment we learned it wasn't seamless required you to boot up the console in Wii mode
- Vita only supported BC through digital, so that didn't amount to much for most PSP owners
- Xbox One's compatibility will probably not move any mountains, especially given the early reports of compromises

 

[taps]

Not the same calendar year, but Nintendo 3DS came out less than a year after its reveal. Nintendo DS was also announced and released in 2004.

This makes me wonder which SKU will release first, not to be OT.

 

[atbigelow]

We're not talking about Unreal Engine 4 mobile though. That's something we should worry about for NX portable, not for the home.

There isn't a differentiation, AFAIK. It's like Unity; it'll run where it can. What your game is doing determines its minimum spec after a certain threshold. 3DS can't run Unity; n3DS can.

And again; we're gonna see UE4 running on the Wii U with Bloodstained. Not a 1TF part by a long shot.

EDIT: Oh you put super specific edits on your post and crammed a bunch of definitions into "UE4". We still don't know who ported UE4 to NX. As I said earlier, at this stage it's interesting that it already IS ported. That makes it likely Epic is involved, yes.

It would be quite cool if UE4 had "NX" as a target and worked on any of the devices. I'd bet that is exactly what Nintendo is trying to do.

 

[AmyS]

Thank you, I appreciate it. Sorry if it's a little awkward to read -- was typing it up on my phone.

Hey, thank you. I'm glad you elaborated on the scalability of NX and the advantages it has.

 

[Bots are better than you]

And also not an official port of the engine. Armature will be doing the porting on their own, but there won't be any future support.

 

[LegendofLex]

This makes me wonder which SKU will release first, not to be OT.

I think it'd be a mistake to release the handheld first this time, unless it has a killer handheld only feature that rivals the DS's touch screen. We've seen too often this gen that people aren't typically impressed enough by Nintendo's handheld output for the little-bit-later console-sized versions to shine like they traditionally have, especially as the output has started to become more similar (SM3DL/SM3DW, MK7/MK8, Smash 4, etc.).

Better to lead with the impressive console experiences and then find interesting ways to adapt those experiences to a handheld, IMO (provided the libraries aren't straight-up identical, of course, but even then leading with a handheld wouldn't be a good move).

 

[OmegaSmash]

And also not an official port of the engine. Armature will be doing the porting on their own, but there won't be any future support.

And isn't it based off UE4 Mobile?

 

[Bots are better than you]

And isn't it based off UE4 Mobile?

I'm not sure, but there was definitely some talking that they might use that one ... I think it even was a gaffer who came with this theory.

 

[Mithos]

And also not an official port of the engine. Armature will be doing the porting on their own, but there won't be any future support.

This port of the UE4 engine will also not be available to other developers on Wii U for quite some time.

 

[Rodin]

There isn't a differentiation, AFAIK. It's like Unity; it'll run where it can. What your game is doing determines its minimum spec after a certain threshold. 3DS can't run Unity; n3DS can.

And again; we're gonna see UE4 running on the Wii U with Bloodstained. Not a 1TF part by a long shot.

EDIT: Oh you put super specific edits on your post and crammed a bunch of definitions into "UE4". We still don't know who ported UE4 to NX. As I said earlier, at this stage it's interesting that it already IS ported. That makes it likely Epic is involved, yes.

It would be quite cool if UE4 had "NX" as a target and worked on any of the devices. I'd bet that is exactly what Nintendo is trying to do.

Yeah, i noticed my post wasn't telling much and tried to be more specific

Anyway yes, that's what Nintendo really needs with NX imho. Not a powerhouse to sell at loss, not even a PS4-level of hardware to sell at roughly the same price. Just a family of platforms that meet the minimum requirements to get native support to every engine on the market (the portable would get the mobile versions of UE4,CE, ecc). 3DS wasn't able to run UE4 mobile and Unity, and missed tons of good indies/mobile games that would have made a lot of sense on the platform; Wii U... we discussed it a lot haha

This needs to be a thing of the past once NX platforms are out.

And isn't it based off UE4 Mobile?

We don't know yet.

 

[Toadthemushroom]

Hey, thank you. I'm glad you elaborated on the scalability of NX and the advantages it has.

Cheers. it's something I've been meaning to elaborate on for a while now, I really just needed someone else's post to comment on in order to provide context (thank you, Vena!).

I've added a bit more flavour to the post now I'm at a keyboard.

 

[Toadthemushroom]

I suspect that these two problems are linked, and that's part of the reason why I'm fairly certain that all the talk about NX building on the Wii U architecture must have something to do with the idea of the permanent software library that removes risk for consumers, not just toolchains for developers or even just future-proofing of all hardware AFTER Wii U. I can't imagine they'd put so much effort into getting things like GBA and DS games working on Wii U if they weren't part of their future-proof vision.

Notice how PS2, Wii, and 3DS - the only platforms to really offer seamless/compromise-free backward compatibility - all were standouts in their respective categories. As for the other consoles to attempt it:

- Xbox 360's backward compatibility was never strong, since it only supported a limited catalog of titles.
- PS3's backward compatibility with PS2 was kind of a mess (both in terms of its impact on the price and the subsequent solutions once the HW BC was removed)
- Wii U's was always seen as disappointing from the moment we learned it wasn't seamless required you to boot up the console in Wii mode
- Vita only supported BC through digital, so that didn't amount to much for most PSP owners
- Xbox One's compatibility will probably not move any mountains, especially given the early reports of compromises

That's a good point, but I suspect you might be overstating the importance of the Wii U's software library for backwards compatibility. It's nowhere near as big as Wii's for example, and Wii software catered to a massmarket audience whom Nintendo hoped to capture with Wii U on day one. Wii U doesn't have that luxury -- most of its software, especially in later days, is aimed at Nintendo fans, who will be picking up the NX anyway. The costs (both explicit and implicit) in trying to implement seamless Wii U or 3DS backwards compatibility will be too high as well -- you could argue that Nintendo building the Wii U to heavily and awkward accommodate the Wii cost them a lot this generation. As good as it was from a creative standpoint in allowing a low-cost entry point for families and friends to play local and asynchronous multiplayer in the same room, and developers to make local multiplayer experiences knowing the vast majority of Wii U owners have a bunch of Wii remotes lying around.

Note that Iwata has also referred to their mobile games and the new membership services as being ways at which Nintendo plans on creating a bridge towards their dedicated games platform NX, not backwards compatibility. That being said, I'm sure Nintendo is planning some sort of software backwards compatibility. I'd love to see a resurgence of virtual console. NX will be a long-term platform, it's a great excuse to start renegotiating better contracts for Virtual Console games.

 

[japtor]

Afaik I thought there wasn't a UE4 Mobile, it was all unified as of UE4. There's performance considerations/limitations for mobile outputs but it's still using UE4.

Edit: if that's the case UE4 doesn't say anything for power, but it would bode well for ease of development. DQXI being considered for cross platform with PS4 could be a good sign for power but still wouldn't necessarily say much depending on how well its assets scale.

 

[blu]

Epic set the minimum requirement for UE4 support though. 1 teraflop.

Uh huh.

We're not talking about Unreal Engine 4 mobile though, otherwise we would have already seen the engine on the Wii U and some UE4 games downported/ported from mobile by using it.

When we discuss UE4 we refer to the full, desktop engine, ported by Epic for the platform and then regularly updated. To get that, you have to meet some minimum requirements. They are, again, set at 1tflop for the GPU.

At the time when the 1TFLOPS measure was given, wasn't SVOGI still in?

Yep, it was:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38684378&postcount=1

then

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38684887&postcount=36

 

[Rodin]

Afaik I thought there wasn't a UE4 Mobile, it was all unified as of UE4. There's performance considerations/limitations for mobile outputs but it's still using UE4.

Edit: if that's the case UE4 doesn't say anything for power, but it would bode well for ease of development. DQXI being considered for cross platform with PS4 could be a good sign for power but still wouldn't necessarily say much depending on how well its assets scale.

There are some differences between mobile and desktop rendering, saying "mobile and desktop version" helps understanding what kind of features we expect to see on a certain platform.

Take a look at this video, i found it pretty interesting.

Anyway what i'm saying is that Epic laughed when asked about UE4 on the Wii U, but if it runs on mobile devices then the console should've been perfectly capable of running it. Still not there, aside from whatever version of it Armature ports with Bloodstained. So maybe Rein laughed because the Wii U couldn't support the "full" version of the engine, aka the version of the engine used for consoles/PC games.

Now, if DQ XI on NX is the PS4/UE4 version, that probably means that the console is able to run the version of the engine that Square is using for Dragon Quest XI. So the console would be "on the right" in the first image, while Wii U would be "on the left". Again in that case the console should probably be close to the minimum requirements Epic talked about a while ago: that would be around 1tflop.

This could tell us something about NX ballpark, but there's still a lot we don't know so it's still a wild assumption, pure speculation. Hopefully we'll soon hear more about it from reliable insiders.

At the time when the 1TFLOPS measure was given, wasn't SVOGI still in?

Yep, it was:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38684378&postcount=1

then

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38684887&postcount=36

Ok, thanks for this. But are we sure SVOGI is relevant to the argument? Iirc they had to cut it out because vastly more powerful GPUs couldn't run it properly.

 

[atbigelow]

*snip*

Nice, this is the kind of details I was looking for. Thanks for posting.

I think it would be perfectly accept for the NX portable to use the forward renderer, while NX home used the deferred. While they are different renderers, they're still the same engine. They make it a point of how cross-compatible they are.

 

[blu]

Ok, thanks for this. But are we sure SVOGI is relevant to the argument? Iirc they had to cut it out because vastly more powerful GPUs couldn't run it properly.

Oh, it's relevant. SVOGI was eventually cut out because it did not scale down as originally anticipated. The "1+ TFLOPS" measure was largely an estimate of what would take to run the streamlined SVOGI, which never happened.

As per Mobile/Non-mobile arguments, the highest mobile tier (HDR + sun) is pretty much the same as non-mobile limited to one fully-dynamic light source ('sun') and limited in post-processing. The shading model is the same. Now, if you look at that Android hw table I linked to earlier, you'd notice an Adreno 330 (130-166GFLOPS, dep. on clocks) handling the top mobile tier just fine.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

nm. I'm senile.

 

[LegendofLex]

That's a good point, but I suspect you might be overstating the importance of the Wii U's software library for backwards compatibility.

I think the narrow library of Wii U games is less important than the work they've already done to make as much of Nintendo's broader catalog playable on Wii U. As the face of classic gaming, they're in the best position to gain from "the ultimate game library" approach, and if they don't carry over as much of what they've released on Wii/U as possible to NX (VC titles in particular), I think they'll have missed their last chance to make that count. People don't want to have to rebuy those games again; Nintendo shouldn't want to have to redo all those games again, either.

You're definitely right to question whether it'd be worth it to put in the effort just to preserve the catalog of Wii U games, though. I also think you're right that the membership service is probably a strong key to how they'll proceeed. It might be most efficient to simply build NX versions of the software that counts (Zelda U, Smash 4, Mario Kart 8, maybe some old favorites like Mario Galaxy) to have a strong lineup at or close to launch, and give current Wii U fans some kind of super-sweet deals on those new versions through the membership program.

But if it can be achieved without much compromise on the hardware design/cost, and particularly if it can be achieved in a way that provides minimal disruption for the user - something more like the DS backward compatibility in the 3DS than the Wii backward compatibility on Wii U - then I think it's worth doing. It has to point to that idea I mentioned about the permanent games library, though, or it's all for nothing.

 

[Rodin]

Nice, this is the kind of details I was looking for. Thanks for posting.

I think it would be perfectly accept for the NX portable to use the forward renderer, while NX home used the deferred. While they are different renderers, they're still the same engine. They make it a point of how cross-compatible they are.

Yup, i said mobile and desktop to make that difference immediately obvious, but ended up with the opposite result haha

Anyway that's exactly what i meant in my previous posts. NX portable should be able to run the forward renderer, and the home should do the same with the deferred one (used in consoles/PC games like DQ, KH3, etc).

Oh, it's relevant. SVOGI was eventually cut out because it did not scale down as originally anticipated. The "1+ TFLOPS" measure was largely an estimate of what would take to run the streamlined SVOGI, which never happened.

As per Mobile/Non-mobile arguments, the highest mobile tier (HDR + sun) is pretty much the same as non-mobile limited to one fully-dynamic light source ('sun') and limited in post-processing. The shading model is the same. Now, if you look at that Android hw table I linked to earlier, you'd notice an Adreno 330 (130-166GFLOPS, dep. on clocks) handling the top mobile tier just fine.

Ok, thanks for further clarifying. So your point is that NX should be able of running the UE4 version of the game even if the specs are below 1tflop, right?

Also, looking at those Adreno 330 numbers, seems like the Wii U would've been perfectly capable to run the top mobile tier. Now that's not a surprise for me, but if it's so similar to the "lower end" non mobile, that laugh from Rein was largely unnecessary.

 

[Terrell]

Sure, but before PS3 and Xbox 360 they were able to achieve higher end performance without necessarily doubling the hardware cost at launch. There was no way that was going to happen again after the way those two platforms performed profitability-wise, so instead we've seen what appears to be a relative return to sanity.

Even when we consider PS4 and Xbox One to be a backpedal from the trajectory of PS3 and Xbox 360, there's still a very extreme difference between the way that hardware performance is approached by Microsoft and Sony vs. the way it was approached by Nintendo with Wii U, 3DS, Wii, DS, Game Boy, and even NES.

N64 and Gamecube is proof positive of why Nintendo, as opposed to their competitors, were able to maintain a $200-$250 price point well into the 2000s when others could not: better engineering.

N64, PS1 and Saturn, at their time, were the top tier for 3D modelled games and no other platform could come close to touching them; PC was actually forced to play catch-up to an extent with what these 3 were offering (mostly MIPS CPUs and proprietary GPUs manufactured by NEC, if I remember right), and began offering Voodoo1 video cards for PCs around the same time for the cost of an entire PS1 console. PS1 and Saturn were designed in a way that they were mild loss-leaders. Meanwhile, N64 had to sacrifice its margin made to achieve the lowest price point of $200, but it was making money out of the gate and STILL pioneering what 3D games were capable of.

During the PS2 and Gamecube eras, PCs were finally starting to eclipse consoles in terms of 3D gaming, but not without a cost. PC gaming hardware was becoming prohibitively expensive if you wanted performance that eclipsed a console. Sony maintained its $300 launch price by over-designing the PS2, Xbox came in at $300 due to under-designing and taking a huge hit on hardware to enter the market with essentially a PC in a console box. And meanwhile, Nintendo kept pace with both of them and the current PC hardware market at the time for $200 and little to no loss on hardware sold.

And we all remember what happened with PS3 and 360. Both over-designed and bleeding-edge for their time at launch, well above what PCs were capable of in that specific moment, they shattered expectations of what hardware was capable of, and prices ballooned to match. And then there was the Wii, which I won't even bring into the discussion.

So while this generation was a "return to sanity", as you described, Nintendo has had a long history of designing hardware that can match the industry standard both without loss-leading and still being cheapest to market. Their engineers have been capable of outright miracles before, and I don't see how matching 3-year-old consoles at a cheaper price is a miraculous feat. I am just not seeing how Nintendo achieving what it's been consistently been able to achieve up until the Wii is somehow unfathomable.

 

[atbigelow]

Yup, i said mobile and desktop to make that difference immediately obvious, but ended up with the opposite result haha

Anyway that's exactly what i meant in my previous posts. NX portable should be able to run the forward renderer, and the home should do the same with the deferred one.

That's what I'm hoping for, yeah.

I was surprised to see their Android hardware table show my phone (Nexus 5 with the Adreno 330) capable of the highest settings. It benchmarks pretty solidly for what it is and its age. If the NX portable has something newer and more efficient, that'd be good territory. NX would also be driving a screen with a quarter the pixels (assuming NX uses a single 540p screen).

 

[blu]

Ok, thanks for further clarifying. So your point is that NX should be perfectly capable of running the UE4 version of the game even if the specs are below 1tflop, right?

Yep.

Also, looking at the Adreno 330 numbers, the Wii U could've run UE4 perfectly fine? Maybe i'm wrong but i don't think Espresso would've been that big of a problem.

At the time people took Mark's famous reaction to the question 'What about WiiU?' as some sort of mockery of the wiiU. In retrospect, I think it was more about Mark being nervous at the time about how their SVOGI would scale down to much larger fish, so that wiiU question got his candid response on an otherwise sensitive subject.

Dry FLOPS numbers and armchair psychoanalysis aside, Epic's actual attitude towards the wiiU has always been 'if somebody took the effort, that'd be great. We're not doing it'. And low and behold, somebody is doing it. So unless we think Armature are idiots*, it should be doable, from a developer's perspective. And that's all that matters at the end of the day.

* Which they aren't.

 

[LegendofLex]

N64 and Gamecube is proof positive of why Nintendo, as opposed to their competitors, were able to maintain a $200-$250 price point well into the 2000s when others could not: better engineering.

[...]

Yes, but if history has anything to say about N64 and GameCube, it's that they overshot the needs of the mass market regardless of anything they did to achieve better power, higher efficiency, and a lower price. Remember, Nintendo based the successful Wii direction on the failures of the N64 and GameCube direction, which in their view were that focusing on sustaining innovations wound up putting them in a corner. Why? Because "bigger and better" doesn't grow your audience; it only grabs your more dedicated customers.

https://youtu.be/5foJ-cwj4Mk

Not all customers need "bigger and better," and certainly the audience of customers who want "bigger and better" is smaller than the audience available to be reached by something that is "smaller and friendlier." Indeed, for many people, "smaller and friendlier" is in fact "better" than what hardcore users see as "better" - more power, bigger games, better graphics performance, more competitive, more difficult, etc.

The problem for Nintendo is that their house shrinks when they focus on bigger and better. 3DS is a "bigger and better" DS; Wii U is a "bigger and better" Wii. The main tech leaps enjoyed by those systems are purely aimed at satisfying the more demanding customers (better graphics, more 3D, more processing power, "traditional" control inputs, etc.). They've done absolutely nothing to attract people looking for "smaller and friendlier" since everything from the hardware design to the game experiences goes in the opposite direction from what they were doing with DS and Wii.

I can't imagine a reality where Nintendo aiming for the demands of existing game customers actually works out for them; they are not going to cannibalize the PlayStation or Xbox markets. Instead, Nintendo needs to correctly serve the needs of overshot customers, like they've done with most of their successful consoles and games. As such, I think that trying to achieve similar results but at a lower price is doomed to fail; better to not compete with them on performance at all and instead focus on going after opportunities that are being neglected by PlayStation and Xbox.

Nintendo are best when they pioneer simplicity and pleasantness; Mario looked great, but it really shone because it was incredibly accessible; Zelda is often considered a benchmark game, but its selling point was really that it was more lightweight and approachable than most console RPGs. That can be paired with bleeding edge tech, but more often than not the tech hasn't been the driver. No one buys Smash Bros. for the graphics, and higher performance (than what we've seen on Wii U) wouldn't really move the needle.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Got any ideas on what that might be? I'm honestly at a bit of a loss trying to think what they've cooked up that would exceed that and not be utterly insane all the same.

Between Takeda's comments and NERD's webpage, I'm currently under the impression that it's either cloud based or using some other technology in gaming which has yet to be used. I dunno. Some type of data analytics/profiling that transfers to your mii? haha

Even in Silicon Valley, the core technology that is researched and developed has shifted from the area of semi-conductors. Engineers and developers should not do their research just by thinking about what technology has traditionally been relevant to them. Today’s engineers and developers must look into more diverse fields, including cloud and software-related technology. We discussed a bit about our QOL project today, which uses different technology than what Nintendo has traditionally used. And each one of these different technologies is showing independent progress in its own field. The world of technology has been quickly evolving – every one of us has to be as flexible as possible, even to the extent that we have to rethink what we have firmly said before. This is a global movement. We cannot afford to say things such as, “We are Japanese and we only need to think about Japan.”