Hmm. While I've plat'd all of the above [and MW twice, ps3 and vita], I honestly can't swear to an answer. It's been so long since i played HP. That said, I absolutely -loved- Hot Pursuit so I'm not really sure what you took issue with.
Overall, I'd say it's -most likely- close to MW, if only because it's more open world like MW is [though I think it feels smaller] vs. the fixed tracks of HP. My guess is it handles more like MW as a result. Plus MW was more recent. But... again, I can't really say... I [generally] quickly adjust to whatever arcade mechanics [from burnout to hp to mp to the run to whatever] a game has.
Others have said it, but it bears repeating -- if you get it (and you should) make sure you set it to offline at first [if not for the whole campaign]. Having experienced cops destroy you while you're still getting warmed up is frustrating.
heck, if you have a 100 hours in mW, why are you even debating a new NFS for under $8? It's worth that just to try it.