Generation is over? That's news to me. We have one 8th generation system that has launched WW and this generation is over?
The handheld generation is over, yes. DS and PSP are legacy systems now, neither will be supported going forward and publishers need to be moving franchises that appeared on either onto 3DS/PSV.
Capcom's goal is to make as much money as possible, not to hope to migrate a fanbase to a system they make no money on.
Monster Hunter, like any successful franchise, is an asset, and must be managed for
long-term value. It's worth putting out a single game that does
only 2.5m worldwide (or whatever) if it cements the fanbase on a new system and allows Capcom to release two, three, four titles that sell 4+m over the course of the gen. Conversely, they might sell 5m PSP copies today but if the result is difficulty migrating the franchise, it'll cost them much more in the long run.
There isn't always an exactly right answer here (3G for PSP now and 4 for 3DS in 6 months might've worked out better, conceivably) but it's absolutely correct for Capcom to be thinking about the long-term health of their franchise far more than the success of any one title, and making an early play to move platforms is certainly well within the range of reasonable ways to accomplish that.
Re: the Capcom/Nintendo thing, I can't dig up a good source on it, but I seem to recall it being mentioned somewhere -- maybe an Iwata Asks or something?
They certainly can. Money talks. I certainly don't think you're naive enough to think that ToV, SO4, and other JRPGs were being considered as 360 (timed) exclusive and the MS talk just made the publishers commit to it.
That's kind of the point, though. Moneyhats got Microsoft bupkis. They weren't able to draw in any system-seller franchises or move the needle on 360 performance in Japan, and the only two notable titles to come out of the whole effort (SO4 and ToV) were both given significantly improved PS3 versions right away. That's with a desperate Microsoft with a wide-open checkbook casting about for anything that could possibly make 360 a success in Japan. (Nobody else in the industry has ever come even within orders of magnitude to Microsoft's specific willingness to cut co-marketing deals with third parties.)
Monster Hunter is now, over the course of a generation, something like a billion dollar franchise. The plausible amounts of money a platform-holder can spend are not actually very large at all in comparison. If Capcom expects to make an extra $300m over the course of the generation by picking a specific platform or moving at a specific time, Sony can't possibly offset that.
Niche developers are not gonna do anything. They are already situated and very happy on iphone and android.
When I say "niche developers" I'm talking about a) in Japan and b) games that sell 50-200k at retail prices right now, not $1 ultra-indie stuff -- Nippon Ichi and the like.
As far a "franchise up for the taking", Sony doesn't really have a choice, do they?
No, they don't, which is part of why people have been saying Sony had a hard hill to climb in Japan for years now. I agree that Sony's in a tough spot on this, I just don't think they have very many outs.
Looking at Vita's sales in Japan, I really don't see how you can honestly say that Sony needs indie developers more so than the franchises you mentioned.
I didn't say that; I said that Sony has somewhere between a very slim chance and no chance whatsoever to get most of those franchises on their system, so focusing on building up a wide library of smaller titles (and hoping to find another breakout hit somewhere in the process) is their best available bet.
If all they had to do was pick a new handheld system, you would think they would have waited until the system was up and running with a well established userbase before making the decision.
Why would they do that? Monster Hunter is the single biggest franchise in Japan. They're a kingmaker. Within remotely reasonable bounds, the platform they pick will succeed
just by virtue of having MH on it. Capcom has the advantage here; they can afford to look at the online infrastructure, development costs, licensing arrangement, likely regional success outside of Japan, or whatever else they want about each platform and make a decision solely on those factors because their franchise will do well with either choice.