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Nintendo Q4 FYE 3/15 Results - Beats Market Expectations, FY15 Guidance Announced
- Thread starter vinnygambini
- Start date
The Dutch Slayer
Member
Sorry if asked before any info on the amount of amiibo sold in total now?
Strangely that wasn't on it. I was hoping for a list of sales for that.
The Wii U may be a disaster sales wise but its owners do buy a crapload of games. The attach rates for mk8 and smash are crazy.
kuroneko0509
Member
nope. probably they'll give the numbers during the investor meeting.
when this argument is made, i usually see it from the perspective of people wanting x on y. so i am arguing the quality of their work and not so much the amount of their existence.
CaviarMeths
Member
Yes, Nintendo's forecast for 3DS is down YoY. Like I said though, that is typical of any piece of hardware towards the end of its life.
I see market growth though. Mobile is rising fast, but it's mostly expanding into a market that didn't previously exist. PC gaming is up too, but that doesn't mean console gaming is down. Quite the opposite, actually. The gaming market doesn't have some unified saturation point where only X number of potential gamers exist and they all choose one platform. There is room for console gaming, mobile gaming, PC gaming, and handheld gaming to all exist simultaneously. If Nintendo plays its cards right, it can come back next gen with a bigger slice of the pie it had this time.
Ok I'm sorry but are you kidding me right now? You're responding to me with the last sentence of the quote that I just gave you that shows that they actually never said that they're not making a loss on producing the Wii U anymore?
They did not make a loss on the Wii U in that fiscal year because most of the hardware was produced and the loss booked in the fiscal year before that.
This whole "Nintendo said the Wii U is not sold at a loss anymore" thing is a huge myth, they never said that.
Eolz
Member
Well you can find on Nintendo's IR website several documents about this subject (chose one from november 2014 because it's a bit more clear).
Reggie said in 2012 that the WiiU needed one game sold to be profitable. Since last year, we know that Iwata said that the production costs were still too high in 2013, but that this would be profitable at the next production batch (so 2014).
From this, it seems extremely likely that the WiiU is profitable, but they won't celebrate that if they only gain 10$ from it for example.
I really doubt Nintendo official statements are less truthful and reliable than analysts predictions (your "sources").
shinra-bansho
Member
No, we can. Quite easily.
You are really struggling to accept this truth, aren't you?
ArchedThunder
Banned
Also they get a much larger amount of the pie releasing games on a system that they own, going third party would mean that they would get less with each copy of a game sold.
Dude, you both have the exact same quotes. Read the entire sentence.
Except it has been clarified elsewhere. The Wii U is no longer being sold at a loss. He is just struggling to accept this and is basing his whole "Nintendo should go third party or make hardware to make a small profit" argument on it, when the latter part of the argument is already true.
CaviarMeths
Member
3-4 million few 3DSs sold this year than last. Meanwhile, like 500 million smartphones were sold. I just don't think that it's destroying the dedicated handheld market so thoroughly. It's having a negative effect, definitely, but it's not a disaster that they can't recover from (not to DS-level sales, that will never happen again, but to GBA or post-Pokemon GB-level sales).
I think Sony was hit much harder by the rise of mobile. Nintendo will always manage to sell hardware as long as they have games that people are actually willing to pay $40 to play.
Being a platform owner has advantages and disadvantages.
Of course after the disastrous WiiU it's natural to focus more on the disadvantages but most tend to forget the positive aspects.
The big question for Nintendo however is to understand and adapt to where the industry is going because it's no mystery the landscapes is changing fast and the traditional console gaming is losing ground.
Nintendo was (and is) always the big whale in the small pound, even when the pound was more like an ocean:
Of course after the disastrous WiiU it's natural to focus more on the disadvantages but most tend to forget the positive aspects.
The big question for Nintendo however is to understand and adapt to where the industry is going because it's no mystery the landscapes is changing fast and the traditional console gaming is losing ground.
Nintendo was (and is) always the big whale in the small pound, even when the pound was more like an ocean:
From your link:
"This situation arose mainly because the loss of the Wii U hardware arising due to the production costs being higher than its selling price was taken into account in the previous fiscal year."
Eolz
Member
The difference is, some people read the quote entirely.
The hardware production costs were too high in 2013.
Iwata says that investors shouldn't expect a loss from it in 2014 (due to the lack of any production) and implies that there won't be a loss afterwards in the rest of the document (or Q&A at the same event).
Edit: also works as a reply for above. He doesn't say it explicitly indeed, but implies it strongly.
We can wait for the next Q&A and/or results if you want, and consider it as a draw meanwhile...
Oh now it's clarified elsewhere, where then? Stop your bullshitting and provide a source for what you're claiming, both the link you/I provided and the link Eoiz provided support what I said.
KillerMan91
Member
You should look more at the whole gen and not one fiscal year. Even Sonys gaming side made some profits during the peak years of PS3 but overall lost a shit ton of money during the gen. When you look at the whole gen Nintendo ends this gen in losses and soon they need to start gearing up for next gen. Profitable quarters and years will be more and more rare if Nintendo can't stop their hw sales dropping next gen and in long term they lose more and more money with ever raising development costs.
2014 sentences referred to previous (13) year...?
or wishful thinking, for someone.
I'm sorry? I'm not sure I understand what you mean.
I'm kinda surprised that people equating a corporation beating analysts expectations as a sign Nintendo's business strategy is on track in the medium turn.
Um newsflash, the majority of companies beat expectations, they spend a good part of a year laying the ground with analysts so they have a positive story to tell when return season comes around, not a negative one. They work very, very hard towards that, esp given past failures.
There's no news story here other than some new numbers, the long term verdict on Nintendo remains that they're going to tough out this product cycle using the keidanren standard giant cash pile and release new hardware. Regardless of how bad the Wii U is, Nintendo is 100% stable in the 5 year outlook, although granted with a stock that'll be shunned like a kosher deli in Nuremberg.
And, more than likely bounce back because there's zero signs that the box under the TV business is contracting in the slightest, even if the mobile business is expanding at a more rapid rate and presents more opportunities to grow. Hell the friggin Chinese market just got opened up, leaving now would be incredibly foolish. Nintendo proved it could make a profit from the N64 and Gamecube, there's zero indication that they'll ever be in a position where they can't eke out an existence with even a very distant third place post Wii U console.
And re Mario Kart 8/Smash, if you think those numbers are good, look at Halo CE's from Xbox launch. It's simply a case of "if you have the console you might as well take what's available to you."
Um newsflash, the majority of companies beat expectations, they spend a good part of a year laying the ground with analysts so they have a positive story to tell when return season comes around, not a negative one. They work very, very hard towards that, esp given past failures.
There's no news story here other than some new numbers, the long term verdict on Nintendo remains that they're going to tough out this product cycle using the keidanren standard giant cash pile and release new hardware. Regardless of how bad the Wii U is, Nintendo is 100% stable in the 5 year outlook, although granted with a stock that'll be shunned like a kosher deli in Nuremberg.
And, more than likely bounce back because there's zero signs that the box under the TV business is contracting in the slightest, even if the mobile business is expanding at a more rapid rate and presents more opportunities to grow. Hell the friggin Chinese market just got opened up, leaving now would be incredibly foolish. Nintendo proved it could make a profit from the N64 and Gamecube, there's zero indication that they'll ever be in a position where they can't eke out an existence with even a very distant third place post Wii U console.
And re Mario Kart 8/Smash, if you think those numbers are good, look at Halo CE's from Xbox launch. It's simply a case of "if you have the console you might as well take what's available to you."
You do realize the positive effects of having hardware is not linked with just the profit you make from selling the hardware itself.
For Nintendo those 5 million Mario Kart copies on their own hardware means they have all the profit, they are not splitting that profit with Sony, Microsoft or Steam. That's the main reason why they are still in the hardware business, they control the market place and keep all the profits. If they were to go 3rd party they would need to sell a lot more copies of all their games in order to stay profitable. Or they would need to do DLC, Season Passes and Mobile the way Warner, EA, Ubi, Activision etc
Very short sighted commenting, even if you make a small loss from Hardware the fact you control the 3DS/Wii U market place is still a lot more profitable than going 3rd party.
CaviarMeths
Member
It doesn't really matter if Nintendo is losing money on hardware or not. They're gaining money on being a platform holder. That's what's important. The Wii U is a profitable platform.
Numbers that state they made a operational profit for the first time in 4 years. They did it by cost reducing, leveraging their IP and DLC. And they did it even in the bad shape they are in (wii u bombing, third party issues, mobile gaming, ...)
KillerMan91
Member
I really don't know why it matters if WiiU makes slight profit now or not when as a whole it will not be profitable venture for Nintendo. When greenlightning next product companies don't think that well it could make money during some years. It needs to be profitable product when you look at its whole life. Of course I still don't think Nintendo should exit home console market after this gen as in home console space there is still room to make money if they can create a compelling product. If their next console ends up doing WiiU then it could be plausible scenario.
We still need to see what Nintendo's next console looks like, but mobile should make some investors and consumers happy assuming they have some decent titles(they should).
Also, I would say the impressive thing about Mario Kart is the attach rate.
shinra-bansho
Member
Nintendo booked an inventory impairment charge in FY13, presumably related to Wii U hardware. [From my reading of that statement] this impaired hardware inventory, was insufficient to meet the fiscal year forecast. The statement implies additional inventory would be sold at a trade price below cost, but almost no loss on hardware would be recognised.
Whether the Wii U is currently sold at a trade price below or above cost per unit is unclear.
Substitution forces aren't going anywhere either, they're only intensifying. Convergent devices aren't necessarily going to completely eradicate the dedicated devices they substitute, the latter just become increasingly niche.
Whether the Wii U is currently sold at a trade price below or above cost per unit is unclear.
Annualised US handheld hardware sales for Nintendo were between 6-8M with the GBA. They currently stand at below 3M, and haven't been above 6M since 2012, while concurrently substituting and consolidating the PSP market. Considerable contraction continues to occur in Japan, which constitutes a large proportion of global dedicated handheld sales.
Substitution forces aren't going anywhere either, they're only intensifying. Convergent devices aren't necessarily going to completely eradicate the dedicated devices they substitute, the latter just become increasingly niche.
Indeed.
They sold 87,18 million pieces of first party software last year. Let's assume a fee of 7 $ per title they wouldn't get as a platform holder (it's assumed to be 12$ for a full priced retail console game). That's 609 million dollars they wouldn't have.
We're not even talking about the cut they have on DLC, third party royalties etc.
Agree, although I also think the level of market share they are losing towards mobile is bottoming out. There is still a market for dedicated handheld devices. If I look at myself for example I dislike gaming on my smartphone for different reasons (interuptions when I get called, controls, battery life etc).
Screamapillar
Member
Interesting nugget from Nintendo's update software sales page...
Mario Kart 8 has sold 5.11 million copies, across physical and digital. That means nearly 54% of Wii U owners have Mario Kart 8. That is an insane attach rate. Bear in mind, this is made even more significant when you consider that Mario Kart 8 is not normally bundled with the system. The primary bundle here in NA is the Super Mario 3D World Deluxe Set.
I believe this is higher attach rate for Mario Kart to a home console than Wii or GameCube.
Mario Kart 8 has sold 5.11 million copies, across physical and digital. That means nearly 54% of Wii U owners have Mario Kart 8. That is an insane attach rate. Bear in mind, this is made even more significant when you consider that Mario Kart 8 is not normally bundled with the system. The primary bundle here in NA is the Super Mario 3D World Deluxe Set.
I believe this is higher attach rate for Mario Kart to a home console than Wii or GameCube.
It's always relevant.
CaviarMeths
Member
This is what I was trying to say. I'm not denying that mobile left a big dent in dedicated handheld hardware. I just think that the market for handhelds will never really disappear.
And after bottoming out, having 40 million people who will buy your new $160 device every 6 years and all buy 6 pieces of software for it for $40 each isn't a scenario that will make Nintendo consider dropping hardware. There's still more potential there than there there is selling cheap Pokemon games on someone else's smartphone.
But I still think there's room in the market for Nintendo to improve their market share.
Do you understand how many MK8 copies would Nintendo need to sell on PS4 to get the same amount of profit that it gets from the current sales on Wii U?
(and compare that to the best sellers on PS4 currently)
Do you think Mario Kart was just profitable at 5 million copies? MK made them a ton of cash.
Also they'd have the possibility of selling tons more if they were on all platforms, since the amount of people interested in a couple Nintendo franchises or just willing to try out some on a whim is probably significantly larger than the people willing to buy a system for nothing but those games.
Furthermore they could even open up their own marketplace on PC for selling their games, all the revenue made on that would essentially go to 100% to Nintendo and I can guarantee that there's a lot of interest in Nintendo software among the PC crowd.
Imo it is short sighted to just dismiss the opportunities that making their software available to more platforms can bring to Nintendo because of the platform holder fee.
Octavianus
Banned
But I thought Nintendo was doomed. What's going on Neogaf?
DeuceGamer
Member
Glad to see Nintendo in the black again. It's especially good to see in spite of the low Wii U sales. It shows that if Nintendo is careful they can profit and prosper without being the leading console manufacturer.
A healthy Nintendo is good for the industry, IMO.
A healthy Nintendo is good for the industry, IMO.
Using the split that someone posted on page 5 about 7.4 million, that is excluding the generally higher digital adoption on the PS4/X1 and most of all the PC, plus the above mentioned possibility for Nintendo to just open their own store front on PC.
It's also ignoring the way higher potential audience that they can reach on those platforms via sales, after all they can offer MK8 for like $15 on Wii U as often as they want at the end of they day there's still only 9.5 million Wii U owners.
Unless you think the game has costs well above $100 mio. (I assume the revenue is at list $20-25 per copy - Nintendo being publisher, developer and platform holder) I don't see how it isn't profitable. Now calculate how many copies should they sell on PS4 to achieve the same profit.
Potential? Higher than for the 1st party titles on those platforms? What is the biggest seller (non-bundled) 1st party game on those platforms?
And I don't think MK8 was ever $15 (and this another advantage of being 1st party - bigger prices for 1st party software).
ninjablade
Banned
I agree with you 100% imagine how many units mario would move being bundled with a ps4. what some people don't realize is nintendo has a chance to be a huge on XB1/ps4 maybe cod or GTA huge.
CaviarMeths
Member
Nintendo doesn't really have a lot of interest in publishing in a marketplace where they do not have 100% control, so that rules out PS4/XB1. But sure, they could publish on PC in their own marketplace like EA and Ubisoft do. They could also make a unified marketplace available on any device that will support it, like PC, mobile, and... their own dedicated hardware.
I think it's clear at this point that Nintendo needs to diversify and enter new markets (which they've started, so that's good), but that still doesn't mean they should drop hardware. If they made a unified marketplace and started producing hardware with similar architecture, they could release a single piece of software on any platform they wanted, greatly reducing cost and increasing sales potential. They would still have every benefit as a platform holder, 100% control of their marketplace, and a lot more resources to make games.
You mean lowest selling handheld that also outsells all their home consoles bar the Wii?
There's been an undeniable contraction in handhelds this gen due to mobile but 50m+ units is still a sizable figure. And it still has another 2 years to close out it's active cycle.
How long till they reach saturation on another platform ? Right now to get MK8/SSB/Zelda other flagship titles you need to buy their platform, when you have their platform every additional piece of software you purchase there - they mkae money. They have their Market place - where they can advertise their own titles. Right now they can sell games from previous consoles and handhelds on this market place.
How much would a re-release of a title like Metroid cost on Steam right now or a few years from now? Not very much, because of the over saturation the Steam platform and expectation about pricing from users. Nintendo by being a platform holder can release such games on their new platform at the price they choose.
How long before because of over-saturation they lose control over price even for their main IPs ? Right now MK8 is full price, it will likely be full price by the end of Wii U's life and beyond. On a different platform they need to sell more copies and thus would need to Promote their games much more, best way to promote a game is price cuts.
There is just too many consideration about being in control of a market place for Nintendo to step away right now, in fact creating a unified market place for their next Hybrid Console might be their main focus right now.
geordiemp
Member
Mathematically speaking if Nintendo had to pay Sony / MS / Steam even 30 % of the sales....then the game would have to sell 30 % more to compensate.
So the question is, would Mk8 sell 30 % more being on other platforms. If MK would sell 10 million on all platforms, then the splitting of profit is irrelevant in monetary terms. Political and strategic is another story.
The interesting thing about the back to profits is there is no mention of Amiibo, which was probably a big contributor to profits.
You should also consider the increase development costs for developing for different configuration and for different requirements. Nobody would buy a 720p Nintendo game on other platforms. And while some of the assets are visibly made at higher resolution, there also a lot of lower textures and simple geometry. Upgrading those to fit the requirements only adds to the development costs.
While I would like Nintendo to have a PC market of their own, it's a different thing altogether to develop for scalable configurations instead of fixed ones. Maybe the new framework will help somehow in that area.
While I would like Nintendo to have a PC market of their own, it's a different thing altogether to develop for scalable configurations instead of fixed ones. Maybe the new framework will help somehow in that area.
Nintendo has a Bad Year = They need to go 3rd for better sales + revenue
Nintendo has a good Year = They need to go 3rd for more sales + revenue
Oh and because of MK Sales on 3rd Party, what aboaut the sales they would lose on their own Platform.
For sure, going 3rd will ever be the last Option for Nintendo as long as they can turn a shitty Gen for them self as Profitable as Possible, something that our other 2 Friends in this Business are not able to.
Nintendo has a good Year = They need to go 3rd for more sales + revenue
Oh and because of MK Sales on 3rd Party, what aboaut the sales they would lose on their own Platform.
For sure, going 3rd will ever be the last Option for Nintendo as long as they can turn a shitty Gen for them self as Profitable as Possible, something that our other 2 Friends in this Business are not able to.