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[Diprosalic]

now lets hope mobile games improve drastically, i still haven't played a non port game that i would consider great and i tried a lot.

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

now lets hope mobile games improve drastically, i still haven't played a non port game that i would consider great and i tried a lot.

That's a silly thing to say on two levels.

 

[Diprosalic]

That's a silly thing to say on two levels.

that's just how i feel about the current state of the mobile games market.

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

that's just how i feel about the current state of the mobile games market.

Fair enough.

 

[StevieP]

I responded to particulars only to impeach the soundness of your conclusion - which is very much a part of the format of online discussion forums, and I say that in a non-condescending way. If you want me to solidify that into a position, I think that the console market with two machines at $400 is smaller than last gen, no question. But I also think it's likely they will continue to outpace their predecessors when they start hitting mass market prices of $249 and $199, especially leveraging more emerging markets, as Pachter also predicts in the other thread. If Nintendo positions the NX as a compelling platform in the next two years, it's likely this gen won't compare as badly to last gen as many are predicting, although it will unquestionably be drastically smaller.

The time component of your argument is not lost on me; if anything, it makes your observations more nebulous, not less. Your argument that console games will be available day and date on boxes people already own doesn't just hinge on GPUs matching power of the penultimate generation. You're also saying that they will have the heat dissipation and storage capacity to install and play them for more than a few minutes. And that Apple/Amazon/Google will invest in the multiplayer and support infrastructure to maintain them. And that developers will still invest in cross-gen development, which now requires separate teams and has generally failed to add significant sales.

Your scenario takes for granted that these interdependent developments will extraordinarily happen simultaneously. But there is an even bigger unaccounted factor: Sony/MS/Nintendo will utilize the same technology Apple/Google/Amazon will to shrink powerful components. When your landscape comes to fruition, and they're selling the PS4 Slim and Xbox One Arcade for $149 or $99, your speculation inverts itself, as the prospect of buying an Apple TV becomes more questionable than it already is in the face of Smart TVs, cable boxes, and Blu Ray players offering the same core, streaming functionality that is, of course, the main draw of those devices.

It's not possible for either console to be cost reduced that low, ever, short of firesales long after the gen is done.

 

[Bolivar687]

It's not possible for either console to be cost reduced that low, ever, short of firesales long after the gen is done.

I don't want to derail the thread but I am interested in learning more about some of the reasons for this. I assumed a big factor in eschewing proprietary parts in favor of off-the-shelf components was to cost reduce beyond the price last generation stagnated at. Especially since people expect small form factor devices to eventually compete with consoles at presumably those low prices. I realize it's different manufacturers with different volume and agreements.

Do you have an estimate how far they will be able to cost reduce?

 

[StevieP]

I don't want to derail the thread but I am interested in learning more about some of the reasons for this. I assumed a big factor in eschewing proprietary parts in favor of off-the-shelf components was to cost reduce beyond the price last generation stagnated at. Especially since people expect small form factor devices to eventually compete with consoles at presumably those low prices. I realize it's different manufacturers with different volume and agreements.

Do you have an estimate how far they will be able to cost reduce?

It's your penalty for not having an all digital platform but needing a large and mandatory hard drive anyway.

The hard drive will always cost them at least 40 bucks per unit, the optical drive will likely always cost them at least 35 bucks, and I don't think you'll ever see the whole rest of the system come in at less than 25 dollars. Various radios, apu, memory, flash storage, cooling and power systems, etc etc are a lot more and will continue to be a lot more than that. And that's before you consider the fact that you still have to consider shipping cost, packaging cost and the retailer cut. Those things among others are why the Wii only made Nintendo 6 bucks per unit at launch for example, despite its roots as an over clocked GameCube.

Go look at how much last gen systems still cost. They aren't going to take a loss on these things to sell them for that low, even with mature processes.

 

[jroc74]

Well I was under the assumption that the Wii sold to new customers that normally never bought consoles in the past.

Is it possible that the last generation was the anomoly?

Its funny because I have been thinking this lately.

When was the last time there has been only 3 major home consoles on the market. When was the last time its been this close in sales. When was the last time it lasted that long overall.

I agree...last gen as a whole could be seen as an anomaly.

 

[Obliterator]

This seems kinda obvious. All kids either have their own mobile device or access to a parents device. Not all kids have dedicated gaming hardware.

I think this is a very very very important point that is almost never talked about in these kinds of threads.

Mobile is exploding. Its going to continue to explode. It only makes sense for it to explode. Phone's are becoming as common in every age group as almost any device in the history of mankind. We are getting to the point where nearly everyone in every modernized society is having one. And that's only going to grow. Mobile is a massive opportunity for many in this industry and will be for a very long time.

That said I don't see how that ties into the "death of consoles" or anything really of the sort. Phones, by design, are not capable of the experiences we see from a console. And they never will be, due to size and cooling alone. A console can, and will, always be more on the cutting edge of technology. There are millions upon millions of consumers willing to invest in high end machines and high end games with gorgeous graphics.

Mobile and console and PC can all live together. One doesn't have to die for the others to succeed or thrive.

 

[Irobot82]

They'll come to the consoles when they are teens.

I'm going to try my hardest to keep them PC Gamers.

 

[Zee-Row]

Are these 2 year olds gaming or just watching videos? Most little kids with phones just watch Barney and Mickey Mouse stuff from what I've seen.

 

[Nirolak]

Are these 2 year olds gaming or just watching videos? Most little kids with phones just watch Barney and Mickey Mouse stuff from what I've seen.

Generally they tend to play relatively simple games where the relationship between their touch motions and what's happening on screen is very intuitive.

Like Angry Birds is actually a pretty good example and I've heard people I know with kids in that age range say they've play it.

 

[Hyun Sai]

It's pretty logical PC would take a bigger hit. Mobile and consoles are still way more simple to use.

In term of future gaming user base, Mobile > Consoles > PC.

Dedicated handheld consoles are dead though.

 

[StevieP]

It's pretty logical PC would take a bigger hit. Mobile and consoles are still way more simple to use.

In term of future gaming user base, Mobile > Consoles > PC.

Dedicated handheld consoles are dead though.

I think the open platforms are going to last a lot longer than the dedicated platforms.

 

[Obliterator]

Dedicated handheld consoles are dead though.

This I can agree with. I dont see mobile hurting home based consoles but they are and will continue to kill the handheld console market

 

[StevieP]

This I can agree with. I dont see mobile hurting home based consoles but they are and will continue to kill the handheld console market

Mobile is already hurting home consoles, both here and worldwide.

 

[Obliterator]

Mobile is already hurting home consoles, both here and worldwide.

I mean not really. I see no correlation or evidence of that in any major territory other than Japan

 

[StevieP]

I mean not really. I see no correlation or evidence of that in any major territory other than Japan

You might want to look again. Unless you're one of those people who believe that for some reason any of these current home consoles are going to engage the casual market somehow post-mobile. You know, the thing that absolutely needs to happen for them to reach certain sales plateaus (like 100m)

 

[Obliterator]

You might want to look again. Unless you're one of those people who believe that for some reason any of these current home consoles are going to engage the casual market somehow post-mobile. You know, the thing that absolutely needs to happen for them to reach certain sales plateaus (like 100m)

PS4 will have no issues whatsoever hitting 100 million. Like as in not even breaking a sweat

 

[Hyun Sai]

I think the open platforms are going to last a lot longer than the dedicated platforms.

Hmm, this is not what the survey is showing, no ? When the market share of the dedicated home consoles will be below the PC, yeah, sure. But I see no indication of that judging by the next generation gaming habits.

 

[Hiltz]

I finally got into mobile gaming with my first smartphone back in June of this year, but the only games I have essentially stuck with are the free titles, Dragon Ball Dokkan Battle, Skyforce 2014 and Primeworld Defenders. This is the first console generation I have chosen to skip even though I do want a Wii U.

 

[StevieP]

PS4 will have no issues whatsoever hitting 100 million. Like as in not even breaking a sweat

On the back of what software to engage the mass market? Knack 2? Publishers are doubling down on properties to serve (and monetize further) the safer 18-35yo male market, and this includes most first party studios. Not expand the market as is necessary to sustain the current sell rate.

Hmm, this is not what the survey is showing, no ? When the market share of the dedicated home consoles will be below the PC, yeah, sure. But I see no indication of that judging by the next generation gaming habits.

Games transitioning to games as a service will eventually curb dedicated platforms. At least, in the traditional sense you know today. Open platforms is where service models excel. There are more young folks playing the most popular MOBAs than there are consoles sold this generation.

 

[Lonely1]

That's a silly thing to say on two levels.

Well, while there's indeed very good game son mobile, when you see the top grossing and most popular lists is mostly F2P exploitative-ware.

 

[Obliterator]

On the back of what software to engage the mass market? Knack 2?

Black Ops 3? Fallout 4? SW Battlefront? Uncharted 4? Gran Turismo?

I mean November of this year alone will likely be record setting for console sales

 

[CosmicQueso]

Your scenario takes for granted that these interdependent developments will extraordinarily happen simultaneously. But there is an even bigger unaccounted factor: Sony/MS/Nintendo will utilize the same technology Apple/Google/Amazon will to shrink powerful components. When your landscape comes to fruition, and they're selling the PS4 Slim and Xbox One Arcade for $149 or $99, your speculation inverts itself, as the prospect of buying an Apple TV becomes more questionable than it already is in the face of Smart TVs, cable boxes, and Blu Ray players offering the same core, streaming functionality that is, of course, the main draw of those devices.

Thanks for the responses. I appreciate your taking the time to consolidate your points.

And, actually, we're more in agreement than you might think.

The position I have is that a $300 Console provides a barrier to adoption, which will become more of a barrier over time. And that, if lower priced alternatives are available on which to play this content exist, or if people already have devices that can also be used to play gaming content, people will find those devices as being "good enough" and just use those devices. Only this time on the TV, not just as they have in the dedicated gaming handheld to mobile transition.

Your point is that once Console HW pricing falls to $99-$149 that the cost barrier will be overcome and consoles will continue to thrive.

I'd agree. But if your pricing scenario becomes reality, what then differentiates a $149 PS4 with a $149 set top box? Both play media content, both play games, in fact, it'd be really hard for a consumer to find significant differences between the two aside from perhaps the focus of these devices.

As others have pointed out though, not sure that getting to those price points is realistic for Console HW as it exists today.

But other than that difference in pricing assumption, I don't think our positions are at all different.

 

[lyrick]

Black Ops 3? Fallout 4? SW Battlefront? Uncharted 4? Gran Turismo?

I mean November of this year alone will likely be record setting for console sales

What records do you optimistically see being broken?

 

[Obliterator]

What records do you optimistically see being broken?

Plenty. Xbox One broke one in the US last year already

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

Its going to be sad to see the reaction by gamers in the next five years.

 

[CharminUltra]

RIP in piece, GAF

 

[lyrick]

Plenty. Xbox One broke one in the US last year already

Which one? Certainly not best selling dedicated gaming device ever in a month, probably not best selling console in a month either.

Was it something like: best selling Xbox platform in the month of <whatever Month> since <arbitrary year>?

EDIT: I Found it...
http://venturebeat.com/2014/12/11/u-s-hardware-and-software-sales-weaken-in-november/

And we are amazed by the excitement Xbox fans have shown to start off this holiday. November set a new record for sales of Xbox One, and Xbox One was the best-selling console in the U.S. and U.K.

The Only record beat was the Xbox Ones previous sales in November of 2013.

 

[CoryCubed]

I see this happening with adults to. I never carry my 3DS around and I love the thing, but I also find a fun but separate type of fun with mobile games. Have sunk as much time into Sonic Runners, Star Wars Uprising, and Deer Hunter of all things more than my 3DS lately. Nintendo has to get in or they will be hurting more than ever.

 

[Hyun Sai]

Games transitioning to games as a service will eventually curb dedicated platforms. At least, in the traditional sense you know today. Open platforms is where service models excel. There are more young folks playing the most popular MOBAs than there are consoles sold this generation.

If Mobas were such a factor, we wouldn't have a 22 point drop for the PC and a 7 point drop for the consoles.

We will see next year where we're at, but the "curbing" of home consoles is not happening judging by the numbers we have now.

 

[Obliterator]

Which one? Certainly not best selling dedicated gaming device ever in a month, probably not best selling console in a month either.

Was it something like: best selling Xbox platform in the month of <whatever Month> since <arbitrary year>?

It was the biggest in the history of Xbox last holiday yes. Thats still a record even if it doesn't beat Wii 2008 (nothing maybe ever will)

But that doesn't mean anything. Records can still be set. Sony will have its biggest November in history in the US this November. That's a record.

I realize its cool and makes people sound smart when the death of consoles is preached on the Internet and yet there is zero evidence at all of such a thing happening.

The biggest threat to console adoption atm is Publishers not releasing enough titles, not mobile

 

[lyrick]

The biggest threat to console adoption atm is Publishers not releasing enough titles, not mobile

Kind of begs the question: Where are the Publishers releasing titles?

 

[Nirolak]

Kind of begs the question: Where are the Publishers releasing titles?

Most are simply taking 300+ staff that used to make 5-10 games and having them make one game.

They're also investing in mobile and f2p online titles, but again, those are more staff and less volume than before as well.

 

[Obliterator]

Most are simply taking 300+ staff that used to make 5-10 games and having them make one game.

They're also investing in mobile and f2p online titles, but again, those are more staff and less volume than before as well.

Yep exactly. The middle tier of the industry has totally collapsed. Its either massive 300+ staff teams or tiny indie studios. The entire "middle class" of the industry has dissappeared. That and publishers are very risk adverse due to the costs now days and are making "safe" titles in established genres or franchises. For example why open world games are all the rage currently

That said there will alwaybe be a market for the core gamer. Always. We've heard these arguments forever. When the Wii was exploding everyone had to go "casual" and introduce motion control or fail.

Mobile is huge. Its going to get BIGGER. Its going to and is overtaking the traditional gaming space. But what does that have to do with the core market?

The people that play Uncharted, The Last of Us, COD, Halo, Mass Effect, Gran Turismo, Fallout, Skyrim, Batman, Dragon Age, Witcher, etc are just going to say "Fuck it" and start playing mobile based games now? No, not even close at all.

The experiences are vastly vastly different and there are people that want a meatier and more in depth game. A game that is complicated and core as fuck just sold 6 million copies in 6 weeks (Witcher 3). Dedicated gaming is going nowhere for a very long time

 

[CosmicQueso]

The people that play Uncharted, The Last of Us, COD, Halo, Mass Effect, Gran Turismo, Fallout, Skyrim, Batman, Dragon Age, Witcher, etc are just going to say "Fuck it" and start playing mobile based games now? No, not even close at all.

Maybe not, but they're going to have fewer and fewer options as the supply of such content dwindles. Fewer titles, but those fewer titles will become bigger revenue generators to compensate for increasing dev costs and decreasing addressable audience.

The experiences are vastly vastly different and there are people that want a meatier and more in depth game. A game that is complicated and core as fuck just sold 6 million copies in 6 weeks (Witcher 3). Dedicated gaming is going nowhere for a very long time

Kinda represents the point. Were there more options, and more variety in content being offered, games like The Witcher might not sell as much as it has in a market with far fewer options.

Consoles are already, and will become even more, niche over time. It's already happening.

 

[Obliterator]

Consoles are already, and will become even more, niche over time. It's already happening.

Because we dont hit the same numbers the massive last generation achieved? This generation isn't even on track to be small by industry standards.

 

[g.r.e.]

Let's welcome the F2P gacha era.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Because we dont hit the same numbers the massive last generation achieved? This generation isn't even on track to be small by industry standards.

How do you define "small"?

Most forecasts I've seen show Mobile & Tablet being on par with the Console market this year globally. By 2019 that gap grows to where Mobile & Tablet generates more than 3x the revenues of the Console space.

Console will still be a huge, multi-billion business, but one that generates billions less than it does now.

Niches can still be very profitable and healthy.

I mean, unless something like PlayStation VR launches and sets the world on fire. Or some other crazy thing happens to disrupt and invigorate the Console market. Stranger things have happened.

 

[sörine]

Because we dont hit the same numbers the massive last generation achieved? This generation isn't even on track to be small by industry standards.

It's probably going to end up roughly half last gen. It's also going to undershoot Gen 6 and end up being the first Generation in history to decline rather than grow the console market.

 

[AmFreak]

It was the biggest in the history of Xbox last holiday yes. Thats still a record even if it doesn't beat Wii 2008 (nothing maybe ever will)

The 360, Wii and PS2 all beat what the One sold last nov+dec multiple times.

 

[SparkTR]

Didn't this exact same thing happen with PC back in 2003? Something like 80% of gamers back then we're using consoles and I'm sure the kids were also skewing that way in similar studies then (I was in that demographic at the time). Theoretically PC gaming shouldn't still be a thing today looking at the pessimistic responses in this thread regarding other gaming platforms, much less be arguably the most popular gaming platform worldwide.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Didn't this exact same thing happen with PC back in 2003? Something like 80% of gamers back then we're using consoles and I'm sure the kids were also skewing that way in similar studies then (I was in that demographic at the time). Theoretically PC gaming shouldn't still be a thing today looking at the pessimistic responses in this thread regarding other gaming platforms, much less be arguably the most popular gaming platform worldwide.

STEAM disrupted the trend and provided a new platform that benefited everyone. Your analogy doesn't really apply, unless some similar disruption happens in the Console space. If STEAM never existed, perhaps it would be a much different world on the PC today.

But I dont buy into the idea of a collapsing core market at all. Again I see little evidence such a thing is occurring

Who said it was collapsing?

 

[Obliterator]

How do you define "small"?

Most forecasts I've seen show Mobile & Tablet being on par with the Console market this year globally. By 2019 that gap grows to where Mobile & Tablet generates more than 3x the revenues of the Console space.

Console will still be a huge, multi-billion business, but one that generates billions less than it does now.

Niches can still be very profitable and healthy.

I mean, unless something like PlayStation VR launches and sets the world on fire. Or some other crazy thing happens to disrupt and invigorate the Console market. Stranger things have happened.

Ive never disagreed with that. Mobile is and will be much larger than the traditional market. In a sense console gaming has always been "niche"

But I dont buy into the idea of a collapsing core market at all. Again I see little evidence such a thing is occurring

 

[Marty Chinn]

Black Ops 3? Fallout 4? SW Battlefront? Uncharted 4? Gran Turismo?

I mean November of this year alone will likely be record setting for console sales

All of those focus on one specific demographic though. The problem is how narrow focused consoles are these days in what they offer. In the past you need a broader market in order to hit those types of numbers and right now Sony and publishers aren't really even trying to attract that demographic. That's limiting their potential in sales.

 

[Obliterator]

All of those focus on one specific demographic though. The problem is how narrow focused consoles are these days in what they offer. In the past you need a broader market in order to hit those types of numbers and right now Sony and publishers aren't really even trying to attract that demographic. That's limiting their potential in sales.

Honestly I think thats the only way consoles will really survive / thrive is to focus on the core market. Casual and social gamers will go for cheaper set top boxes and mobile. The core market which is smaller but still 10s of million of gamers globally will be the ones that keep this part of the industry alive

 

[CosmicQueso]

Honestly I think thats the only way consoles will really survive / thrive is to focus on the core market. Casual and social gamers will go for cheaper set top boxes and mobile. The core market which is smaller but still 10s of million of gamers globally will be the ones that keep this part of the industry alive

Isn't that the definition of a niche?

 

[XiaNaphryz]

Who said it was collapsing?

Maybe he's interpreting "shrinking market" as "collapsing market" for some reason.

 

[mrdeiz]

Mobile is further taking desktops over. Gaming is about to be the next one to surrender