Support NeoGAF

[InsaneZero]

I'd argue additionally that many people's preference for consoles is based on inertia as well. I've met many people who avoid PC gaming, for instance, who will freely admit that PCs can produce a higher fidelity experience (which is something they often care about, although I don't, personally), and can produce more controller options with a greater number of buttons, but who can't make the shift to PC because they can't be bothered or because it just feels weird to them.

Which is totally fine -- I'm not trying to say this is bad. It's clearly part of how humans operate. But the same way many PC or console gamers may stay put because that's what they're accustomed to will lead many mobile gamers to do the same in turn.

Right. People are biased towards familiarity. I'm just using that observation to argue that the idea of "mobile gamers will eventually graduate" doesn't make much sense.

 

[Marty Chinn]

I don't think counting disc-only games is the right barometer when more titles than ever are releasing every week on Xbox Live and PSN. I know others like to discount digital games but I don't think you yourself have that luxury when you're discussing the consoles' position with respect to other digital platforms.

I mentioned this previously but we've seen the opposite of what you're saying happen - some of the most renowned and successful PC developers have migrated to consoles and some of them have made the most money there.

I also think you're distorting the perceived risk of console vs mobile development and I know developers who have told me it's not anywhere near as simple as you're saying. If it was, publishers would have given up on AAA in favor of PCs in the 90s, social games in the 2000s, or motion controls last generation.

Digital only games isn't going to make up for that gap.

 

[Nirolak]

It is. Absolutely, without question.



Separate PC and Console. PCs are multi-use, somewhat ubiquitous devices that do not have the same kinds of cost barriers that a Console presents. PCs were playing games before anything else, they'll also be the last things playing games.

So, let's look at Consoles only.

You're only looking at the Demand side of the equation, not the Supply of content. What drives sales of Consoles? Quality gaming content.

Who provides that content? Developers and Publishers. But what's happening in the space? Developers and Publishers have left big Console development in droves versus just a few years ago.

So the demand might be there, but who's to provide the content? You have a market of potential Billions on the Mobile/f2p/PC side, and a market of maybe 100-200 million on the Console side. The Billions side has lower upfront risk and faster dev cycles. The Console side has seemingly never ending increasing costs, longer and longer development timelines and feeds an audience that is much more demanding and, frankly, merciless if desired quality bars aren't hit. Where would you put your own money if you had to choose where to develop?

Over 70 publishers released a game on a disc in 2009. Last year, it was under 40. In 2009, nearly 800 disc based games were released. Last year, it was just over 200.

The actions of the remaining publishers also paints the story.

Beyond just investing in a small count of AAA games in a very narrow range of game genres/archetypes, increasingly more of their money is going into online and mobile gaming.

Look at how much money companies like EA and Activision are spending on online and mobile games these days. It's very significant, and they're often bringing a lot of those elements back into their main games because 1.) they make a lot of extra money and 2.) they can help make the transition to service games if someday needed.

FIFA and Madden on mobile are just the games while only containing Ultimate Team mode. That's not a hard product to imagine 10 years from now as an f2p game elsewhere.

Someone like Ubisoft has a notably harder time with this, but half new games they show now are minded to being online games that could support some kind of service model in the future.

Going to the Japanese publishers, we see pretty much every last one of them invested heavily in mobile and online or making it a notable corporate goal to get there. They still make other software (sans Konami), but it's clear they see this as a critical component of the company that should represent at least half their efforts.

No one is going to drop a market they're making a ton of money in, but they are overwhelmingly preparing for the scenario where this isn't the case.

 

[Dawnbuster]

My son is 2.5 yrs old and he's been "gaming" since before he was 1. Just depends how you define game.

I never banned him from taking the iPad and playing some of the educational titles I'd bought for him to use years later ... he just sought them out.

It isn't a babysitter, and he'll pick up a book for me to read to him as much as he will a game about the alphabet or numbers. And he'd rather smash my XB1/PS4 controllers into the radiator than play on the iPad lately.

But he's already learned the alphabet, all the letter sounds and can sound out written words, and can count past 100 and do basic addition and subtraction. I credit those "games" more than anything else, but I wouldn't exactly call him a gamer at 2.

 

[Scientist Supreme!]

And that right there is exactly why you're missing the point.

You're treating the Wii like an anomaly when you're forgetting that the Wii was a console with people playing console games.

If the market was staying the same then the total number of consoles sold this gen would remain the same because the Wii audience would migrate over / the people moving out of console gaming would offset the number of people moving in but that's not the case at all.

Hate when people bring wii up as a anomaly. Its like calling the ps2 a anomaly.

 

[Opiate]

And that right there is exactly why you're missing the point.

You're treating the Wii like an anomaly when you're forgetting that the Wii was a console with people playing console games.

If the market was staying the same then the total number of consoles sold this gen would remain the same because the Wii audience would migrate over / the people moving out of console gaming would offset the number of people moving in but that's not the case at all.

Right. When Nintendo fell on their face decades ago with the N64 cartridge debacle, the result wasn't a smaller console market, it was that many console gamers switched to PlayStation 1 instead.

When the PlayStation 3 was a failure and sold significantly less well than its predecessor, the market did not shrink; previous PlayStation gamers just shifted over to Xbox or Wii instead.

Every manufacturer produces a less successful console from time to time. In the past, as the market grew, people just shifted in significant number from one manufacturer to another, depending on who was best serving their needs. Now, it appears that none of the console manufacturers are serving their needs, and as a consequence many gamers are leaving the console market entirely.

Again, assuming I am correct about contraction.

 

[CosmicQueso]

No one is going to drop a marketing they're making a ton of money in, but they are overwhelmingly preparing for the scenario where this isn't the case.

I wish I had just a tiny bit of the skill you have in breaking down a point to its essence.

 

[ZhugeEX]

The actions of the remaining publishers also paints the story.

Beyond just investing in a small count of AAA games in a very narrow range of game genres/archetypes, increasingly more of their money is going into online and mobile gaming.

Look at how much money companies like EA and Activision are spending on online and mobile games these days. It's very significant, and they're often bringing a lot of those elements back into their main games because 1.) they make a lot of extra money and 2.) they can help make the transition to service games if someday needed.

FIFA and Madden on mobile are just the games while only containing Ultimate Team mode. That's not a hard product to imagine 10 years from now as an f2p game elsewhere.

Someone like Ubisoft has a notably harder time with this, but half new games they show now are minded to being online games that could support some kind of service model in the future.

Going to the Japanese publishers, we see pretty much every last one of them invested heavily in mobile and online or making it a notable corporate goal to get there. They still make other software (sans Konami), but it's clear they see this as a critical component of the company that should represent at least half their efforts.

No one is going to drop a marketing they're making a ton of money in, but they are overwhelmingly preparing for the scenario where this isn't the case.

Yup. Which is why I think John Riccitiello's return to EA was much needed in order to help them transform into a digital/mobile delivery company. EA have done a good job transitioning over to that and of course Activision has as well.

And yeh, what you say about Japan's market is 100% correct as always. You always know how to word everything well.

Hate when people bring wii up as a anomaly. Its like calling the ps2 a anomaly.

Yup, in that case the PS1 was an anomaly as well.

Right. When Nintendo fell on their face decades ago with the N64 cartridge debacle, the result wasn't a smaller console market, it was that many console gamers switched to PlayStation 1 instead.

When the PlayStation 3 was a failure and sold significantly less well than its predecessor, the market did not shrink; previous PlayStation gamers just shifted over to Xbox or Wii instead.

Every manufacturer produces a less successful console from time to time. In the past, as the market grew, people just shifted in significant number from one manufacturer to another, depending on who was best serving their needs. Now, it appears that none of the console manufacturers are serving their needs, and as a consequence many gamers are leaving the console market entirely.

Again, assuming I am correct about contraction.

Yup, the market has grown with each generation but this is the first generation where the total install base will decline.

If my forecasts are correct then it could be fairly significant. That is of course excluding NX from the equation because I can't forecast for that yet ofc.

 

[lyrick]

Right. When Nintendo fell on their face decades ago with the N64 cartridge debacle, the result wasn't a smaller console market, it was that many console gamers switched to PlayStation 1 instead.

When the PlayStation 3 was a failure and sold significantly less well than its predecessor, the market did not shrink; previous PlayStation gamers just shifted over to Xbox or Wii instead.

Every manufacturer produces a less successful console from time to time. In the past, as the market grew, people just shifted in significant number from one manufacturer to another, depending on who was best serving their needs. Now, it appears that none of the console manufacturers are serving their needs, and as a consequence many gamers are leaving the console market entirely.

Again, assuming I am correct about contraction.

If you consider Gen 7 handhelds, you don't have assume anymore, just make the claim. Nothing this Gen is going to make up for that Gap.

 

[viHuGi]

USA NPD - 2/17 Years old.

Console Gaming - 60%

Pc Gaming - 45%

Gaf conclusion: Console Gaming is dead, Pc isn't LOL

Never change.

 

[mckmas8808]

And that right there is exactly why you're missing the point.

You're treating the Wii like an anomaly when you're forgetting that the Wii was a console with people playing console games.

If the market was staying the same then the total number of consoles sold this gen would remain the same because the Wii audience would migrate over / the people moving out of console gaming would offset the number of people moving in but that's not the case at all.

Well I was under the assumption that the Wii sold to new customers that normally never bought consoles in the past.

Is it possible that the last generation was the anomoly?

 

[Sterok]

So what should the console manufacturers (Sony/MS in this case, since we all know Nintendo is going to Nintendo something) do in order to actually grow the audience instead of milking the current ones more? Find more 18-35 males to sell to? Get the kids on consoles via more Skylanders/Minecraft type games? Focus on markets that haven't been penetrated well like China? Go for that blue ocean (which some people seem to think VR will be)? Hope that their current audience size remains stable? I doubt dedicated consoles are inherently on the path to niche status, but some sort of shake up is probably needed to prevent anymore decline.

 

[ExVicis]

You do realize children eventually become adults right?

A generation of young adults who wont give two shits about playstation and xbox.

Yes but as adults are you saying they're going to have the exact same interests as children?

I find trends with children interesting precisely because of how unpredictable it can be.

In time those grown-up children could view mobile gamesas completely childish and as a hold over from youth. Or maybe like our generation there is a small resurgence of childhood interests.

So yeah don't assume anything too much that far down the line about trends.

 

[Boombox On]

USA NPD - 2/17 Years old.

Console Gaming - 60%

Pc Gaming - 45%

Gaf conclusion: Console Gaming is dead, Pc isn't LOL

Never change.

I see you not reading the thread carefully.

Well I was under the assumption that the Wii sold to new customers that normally never bought consoles in the past.

So who were the hundreds of millions of people who bought the first two PlayStation consoles?

 

[Bolivar687]

Digital only games isn't going to make up for that gap.

The issue I was responding to was purely about the number of games being released. I couldn't find a resource but if someone could find the number of games being released every week on PS3 in 2008 compared to PS4 today, I would love to see them.

I think painting the console landscape by the 40 publishers printing discs is a woefully incomplete picture.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Well I was under the assumption that the Wii sold to new customers that normally never bought consoles in the past.

Is it possible that the last generation was the anomoly?

It did.

But so did the PS2 and PS1. The difference with the Wii was that the casual audience was there from day 1 where as with PS2 for example it took till 2004 for the casual audience to really start making a notable impact.

But what that doesn't stop is that there was an audience for consoles last gen and that translated into a significant opportunity for publishers to take advantage of. Just read the below-

Publisher commitment is shifting to Nintendo's Wii platform, with over 80 titles (physical retail only, not downloadable games) scheduled for release in fourth quarter 2007, compared with around 47 for Microsoft's Xbox 360 and 38 for Sony's PlayStation 3. A quarter of Wii releases are exclusive, compared with eight for the Xbox 360 and five for PS3. Wii is proving attractive to publishers not only because of its rapidly growing installed base, but also thanks to lower development costs and the relative ease of transferring development resources to the platform, compared with its 256-bit counterparts. As a result, Screen Digest expects that the number of games available for Wii will surpass Xbox 360's library in early 2008 at current release rates.

Publishers will go where the best opportunity is and where they can be successful. Right now it's across multiple platforms and not just console as it was in the past.

 

[mckmas8808]

So who were the hundreds of millions of people who bought the first two PlayStation consoles?

Wat?! What exactly are you doing here? I don't get it......Didn't Nintendo themselves say that they had pulled in people that normally wouldn't game on a console to buy and play games on the Wii?

I'm just repeating what I thought I read back in those days.

 

[Boombox On]

Wat?! What exactly are you doing here? I don't get it......Didn't Nintendo themselves say that they had pulled in people that normally wouldn't game on a console to buy and play games on the Wii?

I'm just repeating what I thought I read back in those days.

And I'm saying Sony did the exact same thing. The Wii isnt unique in that regard at all.

 

[CosmicQueso]

The issue I was responding to was purely about the number of games being released. I couldn't find a resource but if someone could find the number of games being released every week on PS3 in 2008 compared to PS4 today, I would love to see them.

I think painting the console landscape by the 40 publishers printing discs is a woefully incomplete and intentionally deceptive picture.

I don't know what argument you're trying to make.

I'm saying that there will be substitute platforms for Console gaming in the future that many mass market people will find to be "good enough". The vast majority of Console digital only content being made now does not require a dedicated Console to play that content now, and there's no reason to believe that would change in the future.

I'm using the disc numbers as a way to illustrate the kinds of games that are more difficult to find a substitute platform for.

But you're saying that's deceptive? How so?

 

[Opiate]

Well I was under the assumption that the Wii sold to new customers that normally never bought consoles in the past.

Is it possible that the last generation was the anomoly?

There were approximately 80 million people who bought an snes or genesis. There were closer to 150 million who bought a ps1, n64, or saturn.

There were new gamers then, too -- lots of them, nearly half the entire console install base were newo consumers, even if all 80 million returned from the gemeration prior.

My point: growing the console audience is nothing new. The difference this time is that console manufacturers utterly failed to retain themail new customers or continue growing from there. Instead of shifting from Nintendo to Microsoft or sony, they just left, period.

 

[maquiladora]

This seems kinda obvious. All kids either have their own mobile device or access to a parents device. Not all kids have dedicated gaming hardware.

 

[SmokedMeat]

One day all the warriors will unite on PC.

Mobile's beating PC up to. Its taking over period.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

It did.

But so did the PS2 and PS1. The difference with the Wii was that the casual audience was there from day 1 where as with PS2 for example it took till 2004 for the casual audience to really start making a notable impact.

2004 also coincided with a price drop down to $150 I believe. You also saw large releases that year like GTA San Andreas and Battlefront that appeal to broader audiences, as well as the more "casual friendly" specific titles like the SingStar stuff in Europe. And then stuff like Guitar Hero started coming out the year after.

 

[mckmas8808]

And I'm saying Sony did the exact same thing. The Wii isnt unique in that regard at all.

I see what you are saying, but didn't Nintendo tend to get new gamers that also didn't buy alot of software, while Sony brung in new gamers that bought plenty of software (just going off of the attach ratios of the PS2 vs the Wii).?

Perhaps the new gamers that Nintendo introduced to console weren't "cemented" into the culture like new gamers during the PS1 and PS2 era. I'm just guessing here.

 

[ZhugeEX]

2004 also coincided with a price drop down to $150 I believe. You also saw large releases that year like GTA San Andreas and Battlefront that appeal to broader audiences, as well as the more "casual friendly" specific titles like the SingStar stuff in Europe. And then stuff like Guitar Hero started coming out the year after.

Yup, and that just shows how price and software can impact the market.

 

[ANDS]

Playing games and spending money on them are two different things. I'm more interested in spending habits of the various age groups.

 

[Tutomos]

Wii was an anomaly because they had an enormous amount of female customers. Games or systems using traditional controllers are never going to attract the majority of female gamer. Sony and Microsoft are spending very little effort in getting them on board. That's why I don't understand how can something be gone if it's never there in the first place.

 

[Zee-Row]

The PS1's original strategy was to market to people that are 18 , young kids think that 18 year olds are cool and older adults want to be 18 again as well. I think it was a Phil Harrison quote.

 

[mckmas8808]

Yup, and that just shows how price and software can impact the market.

Yeah makes me wonder how long it will take to get the PS4 and Xbox One to $199. By Christmas 2017?

 

[StevieP]

I see what you are saying, but didn't Nintendo tend to get new gamers that also didn't buy alot of software, while Sony brung in new gamers that bought plenty of software (just going off of the attach ratios of the PS2 vs the Wii).?

Perhaps the new gamers that Nintendo introduced to console weren't "cemented" into the culture like new gamers during the PS1 and PS2 era. I'm just guessing here.

Wii attach ratio: approx 9
PS2 attach ratio: approx 6.5 iirc

You're repeating old inaccurate wii is for babbies talking points.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Yeah makes me wonder how long it will take to get the PS4 and Xbox One to $199. By Christmas 2017?

But then you have to also keep in mind that in 2004 we didn't have the iPhone.... or any real phone gaming market for that matter.

So whilst the price and software support may be there in 2017 for consoles.

It's already there for mobile.

So that will also be interesting to watch.

 

[Alebrije]

Do not know in other places but my kid and his friends (10-12 yold) used to play a lot of games on tablets (5-9 y old), then moved to WiiU and 360 but specially WiiU with Nintendoland. They still play on tablets but so much less time than before.

So I think the older they get they move also play on consoles, not saying they abandon tablets but consoles become part of their "gaming cukture"

 

[CosmicQueso]

Y'all should go take a gander at the post Mr. Pachter just threw down in the latest Pachter thread. Applicable to this convo and generally just impressive.

 

[Mr. MondayNight]

With games like Pokemon going mobile albiet GPS style, Nintendo if they make the game "Free to start" as they say will eventually make a killing, I've seen friends who openly ragged on me for buying a 3DS shit themselves in excitement for Pokemon Go, mobile is here to stay so console manufacturers are going to have to start using it to bring people in, Nintendo IMHO has the right idea with Pokémon Go, get them started and salivating, reminiscing about the glorious old days of playing Pokemon then drop a new game playing on cellphones will pull some of those people into the handheld gaming market that wasn't there before, there is millions of smart phones out there what happens if 5%, 10% of the people that play this game go on to pick up let's say an NX handheld? There will also be the vast majority of people that won't pick up the handheld but will play the game and use real world currency in game just to get a leg up.

 

[silvermember]

Do not know in other places but my kid and his friends (10-12 yold) used to play a lot of games on tablets (5-9 y old), then moved to WiiU and 360 but specially WiiU with Nintendoland. They still play on tablets but so much less time than before.

So I think the older they get they move also play on consoles, not saying they abandon tablets but consoles become part of their "gaming cukture"

Those are your kids. Not the average pop. The report doesn't say or imply every kid will not adopt consoles or pc, just that a lot more than in the past won't adopt consoles.

This is part because corporations will not stay in a shrinking market. They either expand to new regions or some drop out.

 

[Fafalada]

Publishers will go where the best opportunity is and where they can be successful. Right now it's across multiple platforms and not just console as it was in the past.

To be fair - as far as "premium" content is concerned, market is still just PC/Consoles. The money on other devices is pretty much all tied in alternate business models.

 

[Game Guru]

If consoles want to grow the market they have for 2-17 year olds, then they need to make more games for 2-17 year olds for consoles. The core console market is admittingly 18-35 year old men, and the big games for consoles are games made for 18-35 year old men. I do think that mobile gaming will not be a substitute platform for console/handheld gaming though, at least in the way where people buy games up front with physical controls. All of the attempts at making mobile or set top boxes with traditional controls had bombed so far. Games that require payment up front aren't the biggest games on mobile either. Naturally, Apple would be the mobile hardware manufacturer that has the best chance of breaking through. It is notable that the first Apple TV that is gaming capable looks to be directly informed by the Wii, which is probably a better path to take than trying to compete with PlayStation & Xbox directly with traditional controls.

 

[Bolivar687]

I don't know what argument you're trying to make.

I'm saying that there will be substitute platforms for Console gaming in the future that many mass market people will find to be "good enough". The vast majority of Console digital only content being made now does not require a dedicated Console to play that content now, and there's no reason to believe that would change in the future.

I'm using the disc numbers as a way to illustrate the kinds of games that are more difficult to find a substitute platform for.

But you're saying that's deceptive? How so?

Sorry! Deceptive goes too far (will edit) but I do think it's disingenuous when you said the content is all niche when I would argue it's more diverse than ever, or emphasize the content creators who left, which discounts all those hopping onboard.

I totally get that you were framing that in the context of software which will move units and I think thats unfair as well. I disagree that only those 40 publishers releasing retail discs will drive hardware. When I look at the PS4 and the Wii U, I have to imagine that consumers today buy machines for the complete ecosystem and not only system sellers, otherwise there wouldn't be "strategic content" teams dedicated to procuring smaller-scope content, showcasing it on press conference stages and highlighting them for seasonal promotions.

I also don't think you can discount games because they are on substitute platforms. I guarantee you more people bought a PS4 to play The Witcher III than built a PC for it. And that's an example of a developer from a larger market coming to consoles despite the contraction, directly contrasting the trajectory you're predicting.

I'm not an apologist, I just think the story is not as one dimensional as you're portraying it.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I'm still not certain what your point or main argument is. Are you saying that Consoles are fine, growing, and will continue to do so in perpetuity despite the challenges? You're debating a lot of particulars, but I still don't see what the main point is you're trying to make.

Sorry! Deceptive goes too far (will edit) but I do think it's disingenuous when you said the content is all niche when I would argue it's more diverse than ever, or emphasize the content creators who left, which discounts all those hopping onboard.

But those hopping onboard are developing their content for a variety of platforms, not just the Consoles. Is that false? There aren't many console exclusive digital only games being made that I'm aware of.

I totally get that you were framing that in the context of software which will move units and I think thats unfair as well. I disagree that only those 40 publishers releasing retail discs will drive hardware. When I look at the PS4 and the Wii U, I have to imagine that consumers today buy machines for the complete ecosystem and not only system sellers, otherwise there wouldn't be "strategic content" teams dedicated to procuring smaller-scope content, showcasing it on press conference stages and highlighting them for seasonal promotions.

In ten years, a game like No Man's Sky or Rocket League would be playable on Consoles, PC, most likely set top box, etc. By eliminating the big disc based type technologically taxing games, the incentives people would have to buy a $300 box up front get even less appealing, no?

I also don't think you can discount games because they are on substitute platforms. I guarantee you more people bought a PS4 to play The Witcher III than built a PC for it. And that's an example of a developer from a larger market coming to consoles despite the contraction, directly contrasting the trajectory you're predicting.

But they brought The Witcher to consoles because that's where customers are today. And we're not talking about today, or even 5 years from now. We're talking long term.

I'm not an apologist, I just think the story is not as one dimensional as you're portraying it.

One dimensional is not how I've been addressing this.

 

[ZhugeEX]

But they brought The Witcher to consoles because that's where customers are today. And we're not talking about today, or even 5 years from now. We're talking long term.

I think that's the point a lot of people miss.

This thread and the pachter thread have mostly be around discussion for the future.

Not what is happening now. I've made plenty of points on what is happening now and the console market has actually rebounded back compared to how it was 2009-2012. That's mainly thanks to the new hardware releases as well as fast adoption rates from a core audience who is willing to spend more this gen.

 

[ExVicis]

Do not know in other places but my kid and his friends (10-12 yold) used to play a lot of games on tablets (5-9 y old), then moved to WiiU and 360 but specially WiiU with Nintendoland. They still play on tablets but so much less time than before.

So I think the older they get they move also play on consoles, not saying they abandon tablets but consoles become part of their "gaming cukture"

That was my point kind of with my post. There is nothing to suggest the capricious nature of children will keep them on the phone and mobile market as they get older. Especially if and and when there's software on consoles that, though maybe aimed at an older audience, will grab them too. Then with the lack of that kind of software on phones they'll naturally seek out the devices that do good that kind of thing.

However, if we ever get to a point where CoD can be in some or any sort of decent mobile form well be in for an interesting ride.

 

[Bolivar687]

I'm still not certain what your point or main argument is. Are you saying that Consoles are fine, growing, and will continue to do so in perpetuity despite the challenges? You're debating a lot of particulars, but I still don't see what the main point is you're trying to make.



But those hopping onboard are developing their content for a variety of platforms, not just the Consoles. Is that false? There aren't many console exclusive digital only games being made that I'm aware of.



In ten years, a game like No Man's Sky or Rocket League would be playable on Consoles, PC, most likely set top box, etc. By eliminating the big disc based type technologically taxing games, the incentives people would have to buy a $300 box up front get even less appealing, no?



But they brought The Witcher to consoles because that's where customers are today. And we're not talking about today, or even 5 years from now. We're talking long term.



One dimensional is not how I've been addressing this.

I responded to particulars only to impeach the soundness of your conclusion - which is very much a part of the format of online discussion forums, and I say that in a non-condescending way. If you want me to solidify that into a position, I think that the console market with two machines at $400 is smaller than last gen, no question. But I also think it's likely they will continue to outpace their predecessors when they start hitting mass market prices of $249 and $199, especially leveraging more emerging markets, as Pachter also predicts in the other thread. If Nintendo positions the NX as a compelling platform in the next two years, it's likely this gen won't compare as badly to last gen as many are predicting, although it will unquestionably be drastically smaller.

The time component of your argument is not lost on me; if anything, it makes your observations more nebulous, not less. Your argument that console games will be available day and date on boxes people already own doesn't just hinge on GPUs matching power of the penultimate generation. You're also saying that they will have the heat dissipation and storage capacity to install and play them for more than a few minutes. And that Apple/Amazon/Google will invest in the multiplayer and support infrastructure to maintain them. And that developers will still invest in cross-gen development, which now requires separate teams and has generally failed to add significant sales.

Your scenario takes for granted that these interdependent developments will extraordinarily happen simultaneously. But there is an even bigger unaccounted factor: Sony/MS/Nintendo will utilize the same technology Apple/Google/Amazon will to shrink powerful components. When your landscape comes to fruition, and they're selling the PS4 Slim and Xbox One Arcade for $149 or $99, your speculation inverts itself, as the prospect of buying an Apple TV becomes more questionable than it already is in the face of Smart TVs, cable boxes, and Blu Ray players offering the same core, streaming functionality that is, of course, the main draw of those devices.

 

[Sandfox]

The market is going to be interesting to in a decade or so when these kids either become the "main" audience or are creating the games themselves.

 

[ExVicis]

The market is going to be interesting to in a decade or so when these kids either become the "main" audience or are creating the games themselves.

Somewhat off-topic but I find it incredibly interesting what kids nowadays are into and know about media compared to me and people my age.

Just the idea that there are kids whose only knowledge of Star War is the prequels and cartoons is incredible sometimes to me. Then I realized the upcoming movies might be there first four a lot.

That means a while generation will have a storage view of Star Wars from is. Crazy to imagine.

 

[RPGam3r]

lol, 2 year olds playing video games.

My 2yr old daughter loves some games on my phone, and she's been clearing some of the Mario Maker levels I've made for her.

Not sure what's funny?

 

[pislit]

My 2yr old daughter loves some games on my phone, and she's been clearing some of the Mario Maker levels I've made for her.

Not sure what's funny?

Yeah, I have a godchild who plays challenging puzzle games on her iPad, and now she has a British accent because of the educational videos her mother put there. Mobile gadgets are great supplements for children's development for those parents who know what they're doing.

 

[Marty Chinn]

My 2yr old daughter loves some games on my phone, and she's been clearing some of the Mario Maker levels I've made for her.

Not sure what's funny?

People like that don't actually have experience with kids nor know what a young child is capable of. What they think of a 5 or 6 year old can do is actually what a 2 or 3 year old can do.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I wish CNET had a deeper breakdown of the report, since that 2-17 age window is enormous and the article suggests that the 2-5 age is skewing some of those figures, especially the decline of PC.

That is important info. I've seen many parents toss a kid a smartphone to play on while in Walmart.

On a side note, I predict these kids will grow up to have shit taste in games. I don't care if I sound like a stereotype saying that.

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

I really really want to get into mobile gaming but I just can't... I really can't. Maybe with this iPhone, I can try again but they are so boring sometimes.

 

[Silent Chief]

$13 over 3 months is nothing. They might as well be reading a book.