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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
This ship has sailed. Xbox One will not catch PS4 in USA, winning october or not.
Only mau will be released, also software & hardware combined revenue for Xbox one games. All the chess pieces are in place for inevitable defeat and end of the console war. As stated by other posters, xbox has to simply wait as the cycle starts anew and hopefully still be relevant in the console space.
Methinks you're being a tad melodramatic mate. "End of the console war" come on. Cool your jets. Getting all giddy does nothing but make you look petty.
I don't think underdog is the right word. People predicting higher PS4 sales would not be shocked if Xbone ends up winning, it is Halo month after all. Having said that, it is interesting to see how all of us are now aware of the possibility of a small PS4 win, a thought that would have been laughed at even two months ago.
Chobel
Member
Pushing Fallout 4 bundle and the less expensive bundles makes more sense, even for Best Buy.
CosmicQueso
Member
Right. The ranking of the consoles in this cycle isn't in doubt. The only thing that might happen is like what happened with last gen, the Xbox 360 eventually surpassed the Wii in terms of lifetime sales in the US, but only because the Wii was retired.
But by the time that happened, no one cared.
harrisk954
Member
I don't know about that. If the gap is currently between 800,000 and 1 million, MS could conceivably close that gap IN THE US ... but, that opportunity is fast slipping away (and, as you rightly stated, "that ship has [most likely] sailed") and if MS doesn't win at least 2 out of the final 3 months of the year, then I would fully agree that the ship has sailed away permanently.
Haha, I stopped replying to etta about it, it was becoming futile.
I don't know. Even last year when MS had their price drop and amazing bundles they only managed to cut the gap to only like 400k right? Then after that it was back to regularly scheduled programming for the PS4. Now the gap is back up to 800k I believe?
If the Xbox wins this month it won't be by much and now it's possible PS4 may take the win even during halo month.
Now in Nov. and Dec. Sony is in a much better position aligning themselves with COD and Battlefront. I know it's early but we have Amazon already showing s heavy trend towards ps4 thanks to those bundles. After this year I expect the gap to more or less be the same with Sony starting off 2016 strong.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Not even that because even if they close the Gap to 500k early 2016 is PS4 domain with Indies, Gravity Rush, SFV, Uncharted 4, MLB 16 and Ratchet & Clank hitting the first 4 months. I think if XB1 doesn't win October it's over for them not even with PS4 parity sales in November and December.
I imagine they'll make less money from it that way.
I agree. And they wouldnt need to. Unless I read it wrong...I see Roblox is coming to XBO as exclusive.
Between that and Minecraft my kids would play nothing else. I can actually see them wanting an XBO just for Roblox.
MS might stage a major comeback with Roblox.
Omnistalgic
Member
What the heck is Roblox?
Obliterator
Member
COD. Like always
I had Sony pegged for cementing their 1 million gap in 2016 and then building on it. By the time another holiday rolls in and MS wins another November or October, the gap will never go below 1 million.
Sony going into 2016 with a million gap, already? That would be interesting to see.
Primethius
Banned
I'm buying COD. I never buy COD. That's how you know COD's going to be insane.
/s... I think.
As for the Minecraft discussion, a lot of things can happen with it but I don't see it ever giving up the PC market (nor others, but PC above all). It just makes too much money.
Giriath_89
Member
I was all for betting on Battlefront a month ago, but things are really kicking up for BO3. That said, the $399 SW:BF bundle has been selling very well on Amazon since it became available for pre-order, and now the $349 bundle is up there as well.
Battlefront will sell the most bundles, but which game will end up taking the Holiday season? I think it will depend on what happens in December, when the Star Wars frenzy should be at its peak before and after The Force Awakens. BO3 willl easily take November, but Battlefront could be huge in December.
I'm counting only next-gen sales by the way; I imagine BO3 will sell plenty on last-gen despite the awful.
Final Amazon update for October:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames?tag=viglink20241-20
My predictions:
[3DS] 95k
[PS4] 410k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 400k
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames?tag=viglink20241-20
My predictions:
[3DS] 95k
[PS4] 410k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 400k
Katana_Strikes
Member
Still a bloody week away 
I don't want to wish my life away but hurry up a week lol
I don't want to wish my life away but hurry up a week lol
tattooed_dwarf
Member
No, Fallout comes on Tuesday already!Still a bloody week away
I don't want to wish my life away but hurry up a week lol
EdReedFan20
Member
Still a bloody week away
I don't want to wish my life away but hurry up a week lol
You should savor the wait. We're probably not going to get another chance like this again.Still a bloody week away
I don't want to wish my life away but hurry up a week lol
Only if you learn statistic and graphs from arstechnica writer, you will understand that he gap is shrinking and not increasing between PS4 and XBO after 1.3 million.
First Amazon monthly update for November.
#16 / PS4 + Call of Duty: Black Ops III
#20 / PS4 + Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection
#27 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront LE
#30 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront
#37 / XB1 + Fallout 4
#56 / XB1 + Halo 5 LE
#72 / XB1 + Kinect
#75 / XB1 + Gears of War: Ultimate edition
#79 / XB1 + Madden NFL 16
#90 / WIU + Super Mario 3DWorld
#16 / PS4 + Call of Duty: Black Ops III
#20 / PS4 + Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection
#27 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront LE
#30 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront
#37 / XB1 + Fallout 4
#56 / XB1 + Halo 5 LE
#72 / XB1 + Kinect
#75 / XB1 + Gears of War: Ultimate edition
#79 / XB1 + Madden NFL 16
#90 / WIU + Super Mario 3DWorld
slavesnyder
Member
This looks very clean and in order.
Poor WiiU.
Also: 5 XB1 vs. only 4 PS4 consoles.
Clear win for Microsoft
Dash_Riprock
Member
November is gonna be very cut and dry barring a massive BF sale from MS.
Seems like it might really be down to Black Friday being absolutely insane. Otherwise, there's next to zero chance of a 2014 repeat.
I feel like the two single-most sought after bundles for BF sales will be the Battlefront bundle and the Fallout bundle.
I could also see some retailer running ridiculous deals with the Gears bundle.
slavesnyder
Member
I don't think Sony hands Black friday to MS on a silver plate this time.
Also I cannot see that Xbox division got greenlit once again do crazy stuff like last year.
I can see both going low, but Xbox staying 50$ cheaper than PS4 over all.
And so there will be no big change in lead, just in scope.
What would be ridiculous? 299 plus extra game and 2nd controller?
DriftingSpirit
Member
Plus the pre orders from the last two months.
BF will no doubt account for most of the sales but just like we have to account for the halo bundle that was accounted for in previous months we have to assume the SW bundles in previous months will be added to the count.
Barring some massive move from MS ($299) this month would suggest a PS4 win imo. Just seeing a box with Star Wars or COD on it is enough not mention what stores will be doing on their own.
I don't think there's a chance tbh, now that it looks like there won't be a universal $50 price cut for 2 + months.
We already know there will be $299 PS4s at/around BF, and the Holidays are all about baseline.
Right.
I really can't see XB1 wins this holidays... imo, it looks like PS4 will win, and i honestly believe it won't be close.
I don't expect a insane 2014 gap, but still. I can see PS4 beat XB1 by >200k or at least 150k in both November and December.
PanicFreak
Member
Well Lara Croft Go scored an 83 so that last would would be nice.
There won't be a 2014 repeat, actually PS4 will likely gain ground.
slavesnyder
Member
we have to define more precisely.
Yea it'll be tough for them unless they do something insane for BF. But no doubt Sony or the retailers themselves will be doing something crazy for BF as well.
We've already seen good deals already this month for the consoles. I can't imagine what BF will bring? Can they get any better?
Of course we will see another insane deals, just wait and see.
But honestly, it looks like MS is not gonna be THAT crazy like last year.
XB1 sales was insane thanks insane deals and a strong line up in 2014. They have the marketing of Call od Durt Advanced Warfare and Assassin's Creed Unity, both with two bundle, but AW bundle was limited, the really strong point was the Assassin's Creed bundle.
This bundle was selling for $329 with 3 games last year ( one game + the two AC BF+Unity ).
This time MS have a lot, too much, of XB1 bundle at $399, and the main XB1 game, Halo 5, has a bundle at $499... They will have for sure very strong deals this Black Friday, but withouth the COD marketing, and the AC bundle of last year, i really can't see XB1 sell as good as last year.
For not even talk about those "disappoint" sales of Halo 5, which as for now we know are only 50% bigger than the MCC in UK...
About Sony, i honestly think PS4 has a good chance for sell what XB1 sold last holidays ( over 2.5 million ).
The Star Wars bundle can be huge nearly like the AC Unity+Black Flag bundle, and they have the Black Ops III marketing, which is gonna be bigger than Advanced Warfare since Activision already confirmed the pre orders are bigger.
Yeah, i think this November and December we will see some like:
PS4 2015 = XB1 2014 > XB1 2015 > PS4 2014
And yeah, PS4 sales last holidays was pretty "meh", at least in the US...
slavesnyder
Member
They already made a combi deal with a TV.
Now they should add a sofa.
Hey guys, some Black Friday deals even for Wii U, it seem.
$219 Wii U + Splatoon and Super Smash Bros U
This seem pretty good deal.
$219 Wii U + Splatoon and Super Smash Bros U
This seem pretty good deal.
3rdamention
Member
Hey guys, some Black Friday deals even for Wii U, it seem.
$219 Wii U + Splatoon and Super Smash Bros U
Nah, the real deals at Meijer are in the Thanksgiving Day Ad! Its weird that the WiiU Bundle was like all they had for Black Friday, but Thanksgiving Day is pretty solid!
The Uncharted Collection PS4 Bundle AND the Gears of War X1 Bundle are $299 each and you get a $50 off your next purchase coupon (you have to use it between 11/29 and 12/24). So essentially, each is $250.
They also say there are other Xbox 1 Bundles (it says the prices are $299 - $449, so I assume the Halo Bundle), and it appears they are all the same deal. $50 off the price, with a $50 off your next purchase coupon that prints at checkout. And some good deals on games!
In the interest of avoiding rampant misinformation I'd like to clarify something in regards to the MS Halo 5 PR. I am seeing a lot of people staying this: "$400 million in one week." The PR doesn't actually say that. It specifies by the end of launch week which if it indeed does include sales of the console bundle and the controllers includes an extra week of sales for the console (it went on sale 1 week prior to the game's official release) and 2 more weeks of sales for the controllers. Y'all need to mind the details of the statement. It is worded the way it is for a very specific reason. The effectiveness of the spin even here on GAF is just mind boggling.