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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Elios83

Member
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.

Not so soon, a price cut will always be bounded to the availability of a new hardware revision that allows them to still be profitable (or around break even) at the new price.
We know that Sony is profitable with the current model at 349$.
It doesn't take a lot to imagine that with a new hardware revision (possibly slimlined), with tons of new games and exclusives to push, with Morpheus/VR needing a lower entry price to become successful, next year they'll finish the job started this year and they'll reach 299$.
But I'm expecting it to happen in the second half of the year.

And I'm expecting a mirrored strategy from MS as well btw (although they don't have a VR headset to promote :D).
 

jjonez18

Member
I see them handling PSVR in the same way MS has recently started handing Kinect. Have a competitively price console+peripheral bundle and let the standalone be sold at a higher price, maybe with a game attached.
 
Why is the NPD secret again? I mean we used to always get a full report from it.

We do not get the report from NPD.
The data is their core business they make money with, selling it to those who have an interest plus a lot of money (we here generally only have an interest...). It's secret and confidential.
But sometimes sales numbers find their way into this forum nevertheless.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.

I don't think they have to. I've been saying this for a while now and I think they've actually dropped the PS4 by $100 but are hiding it under the bundled games. Remove the game and you have a $300 console. This is giving them a lot of leeway to adjust their strategy based on what MS do. They were already giving TLOUR away with the bundles before the pricedrop and just after the price drop they stopped the bundle on Amazon. In my opinion they did this to further hide the fact they've actually dropped the PS4 by $100. They could easily rerelease that bundle at $300 if need be. When UC4 releases, I wouldn't mind betting the bundle will be $350.
 
I don't think they have to. I've been saying this for a while now and I think they've actually dropped the PS4 by $100 but are hiding it under the bundled games. Remove the game and you have a $300 console. This is giving them a lot of leeway to adjust their strategy based on what MS do. They were already giving TLOUR away with the bundles before the pricedrop and just after the price drop they stopped the bundle on Amazon. In my opinion they did this to further hide the fact they've actually dropped the PS4 by $100. They could easily rerelease that bundle at $300 if need be.
Or go down to 300 and take out the bundled game (a first party game, to be precise). Basically the same value but might look nicer. It's just another option they leave open for reaction.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
Or go down to 300 and take out the bundled game (a first party game, to be precise). Basically the same value but might look nicer. It's just another option they leave open for reaction.

I'm thinking in terms of Black Friday. If I'm right then adding TLOUR won't change anything because they were 'supposedly' already giving that away for free (assuming the price drop wasn't already in place and we didn't know about it), so all they have to do is release the same bundle at $300 and lose the profits from ONE game to get a two game bundle. Perhaps: PS4 $300 + TLOUR + Until Dawn. They could even throw Driveclub in that bundle if they wanted to because they've now said on numerous occasions it's a 'service'. DLC is the future of this franchise. PS4 $300 + TLOUR + Until Dawn + Driveclub.
 
I'm thinking in terms of Black Friday. If I'm right then adding TLOUR won't change anything because they were 'supposedly' already giving that away for free (assuming the price drop wasn't already in place and we didn't know about it), so all they have to do is release the same bundle at $300 and lose the profits from ONE game to get a two game bundle. Perhaps: PS4 $300 + TLOUR + Until Dawn. They could even throw Driveclub in that bundle if they wanted to because they've now said on numerous occasions it's a 'service'. DLC is the future of this franchise. PS4 $300 + TLOUR + Until Dawn + Driveclub.
This makes a lot of sense and would be a really great deal.
Also a nice proof of love for Until Dawn and a good fit to TLOUR. Both being horror themed, but also showing the diversity of genres PS4 has to offer.
Driveclub on top would be the icing.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
This makes a lot of sense and would be a really great deal.
Also a nice proof of love for Until Dawn and a good fit to TLOUR. Both being horror themed, but also showing the diversity of genres PS4 has to offer.
Driveclub on top would be the icing.

Yeah, just give people that base Driveclub game because the DLC is currently getting quite a lot of hype. I would also re-release Driveclub mid Dec with ALL the DLC up until now. If they call it something like Driveclub: Ultra or Driveclub: Complete, they can send it out for re-reviewing and get a separate Metacritic score, which it now completely deserves. Next year we'll see season 2 and the more people with the game the merrier.
 
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.

Sorry... That would be awesome, but it ain't gonna happen!
 

gaming_noob

Member
We do not get the report from NPD.
The data is their core business they make money with, selling it to those who have an interest plus a lot of money (we here generally only have an interest...). It's secret and confidential.
But sometimes sales numbers find their way into this forum nevertheless.

Suggestion: Pool money for Evilore to purchase monthly NPD data under the organization name NeoGaf.
 

PhineasRed

Neo Member
[3DS] 89k
[PS4] 455k
[WIU] 79k
[XB1] 442k

Price drops appear to be the most effective way to boost sales, combine that with the general momentum of the PS4 and I think it's a win for PS4. Halo will have helped moved significant XB1s, but I don't think it will quite be enough to edge out the PS4.

In the next couple weeks I think we will see a 50 dollar price drop on each of the XB1 holiday bundles along with a huge marketing push touting the new entry price of $299 and BC. That should make for an interesting holiday.
 

Boke1879

Member
Without a price advantage for the Xbox one, it's going to be interesting for the next couple of months.

Well they weren't beating PS4 with a price advantage. They'll sell well at $299 but with PS4 being the same price on Black Friday and with these bundles Sony have I'm calling a november win.
 

Shenmue

Banned
If that newegg xb1 deal is any indication MS will definitely be going super low on the deals again.

I gotta think that deal is initiated by MS because Newegg has no retail store. There's no concept of a loss leader to get people in the stores in the hopes that they'll pick up items with higher profit margins.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Without a price advantage for the Xbox one, it's going to be interesting for the next couple of months.

Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".
 

jackdoe

Member
What's the likelihood of the Uncharted Collection outselling Rise of the Tomb Raider in November (when counting bundle sales)?
 
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".

No, what they did was good business. They didn't have the inventory to meet the demand a price cut would have caused. Plus, they kept a nice profit margin on every unit sold.
 

Rymuth

Member
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".
They're back to almost a million in LTD gap and their profit margins did not have to take a hit. I tend to look at it more of a 'lost the battle, won the war' kind of situation.
 
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".

And in the end, all those punches meant nothing cause one year later and MS is right back to where they were before. They did NOTHING to build on the momentum they got from Holiday 2014, and from the looks of it Sony is not going to stand by this year.
 
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".

Sony made money, MS didn't.

I would walk away happy too.
 

Shenmue

Banned
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".

I don't think that was the reason they walked away happy.

They walked away happy knowing they just made a huge profit on each console sold.
 

Boke1879

Member
Kohls put out their BF ad. $299 PS4 there as well. Anyone know when Walmart/Bestbuy/Target put theirs out?

Kinda expecting $299 PS4 to be the norm.
 

RibMan

Member
I think 400k for Tomb Raider is absolutely doable -- especially if it scores well. Mind you, I'm not talking about bundle sales/sales the creative accountants at Microsoft will use. The problem for Square will be: Is 400k enough for the Tomb Raider IP?
 
I don't think you can say MS didn't make money (overall), but Sony definitely made more. Good to see Sony doing so well and succeeding this generation.

MS hasn't made the XB1 hardware profitable yet, Sony stated they made profit on PS4 since beginning of 2014. Besides how could MS make profit on BF when they were giving away XB1 with 3 games at $329?
 
I think 400k for Tomb Raider is absolutely doable -- especially if it scores well. Mind you, I'm not talking about bundle sales/sales the creative accountants at Microsoft will use. The problem for Square will be: Is 400k enough for the Tomb Raider IP?

400k worldwide or in the US alone? This is an NPD thread, which is US only.... I don't see them moving 400,000 units in the US when they are going up against Fallout on release day and then Battlefront... And let's not forget CoD bringing in huge numbers as well this month... I just don't see TR doing those kind of numbers worldwide this month, let alone just in the US... Maybe a slow burn over the next 2 months, but not in November...Sorry!
 
Interesting thanks. Do you think xbox division as a whole is profitable at least? I bet last christmas really hurt them with that crazy bundle they did.

As long as they keep combining it with other hardware and software profits within the same division we may never know if the "Xbox side" of the division is profitable. My bet is it isn't unless you take into account Xbox Live users.
 
MS hasn't made the XB1 hardware profitable yet, Sony stated they made profit on PS4 since beginning of 2014. Besides how could MS make profit on BF when they were giving away XB1 with 3 games at $329?

Software. Xbox Live. Other hardware (controllers, mics, etc.). Many ways to make money beyond just selling the base console.
 
Kohls put out their BF ad. $299 PS4 there as well. Anyone know when Walmart/Bestbuy/Target put theirs out?

Kinda expecting $299 PS4 to be the norm.


This is when they leaked last year, I expect Target next but who knows?

Gamestop leaked 11 days earlier this year than last year.



2014_leaked_bf_ads_4.jpg
 

RexNovis

Banned
Good to see sony not giving a chance for xbox to close the gap. What they did last year was shameful. They just took all those punches to the throat and walked away happy that they landed a single slap
"won BF on amazon".

They unleashed the dragon and were stunned by the resulting flurry of uppercuts. Obviously.
 

jjonez18

Member
What's the likelihood of the Uncharted Collection outselling Rise of the Tomb Raider in November (when counting bundle sales)?

I honestly think it's very possible. PS4 is gonna move a load of Uncharted in that bundle if the 299$ deal is across all major retailers. I don't see the TR bundle + the game selling much over 300k especially when the consumer could spring for so many other bundle options that will be more widely available.
 
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