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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Shenmue

Banned
Nah, the real deals at Meijer are in the Thanksgiving Day Ad! Its weird that the WiiU Bundle was like all they had for Black Friday, but Thanksgiving Day is pretty solid!


The Uncharted Collection PS4 Bundle AND the Gears of War X1 Bundle are $299 each and you get a $50 off your next purchase coupon (you have to use it between 11/29 and 12/24). So essentially, each is $250.


They also say there are other Xbox 1 Bundles (it says the prices are $299 - $449, so I assume the Halo Bundle), and it appears they are all the same deal. $50 off the price, with a $50 off your next purchase coupon that prints at checkout. And some good deals on games!

Surprised the gears bundle isn't 249 with the 50 gift card. Usually you would expect ms to undercut by $50. With them at the same price very, very few people are going to pick an xbox over a PlayStation.
 

Boke1879

Member
Yep, knew that we'd see the PS4 at $299. And here we go...

Nov/ Dec NPDs will be madness ;)

$299 + $50 Gift card is insane... Wish there were Meijers in Maryland hehe.

Hopefully Walmart or Target can follow suit and offer both consoles for $299. I'd have to go out of town to get to one of these stores and it's just not worth it and who knows how much stock they really have
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
In the interest of avoiding rampant misinformation I'd like to clarify something in regards to the MS Halo 5 PR. I am seeing a lot of people staying this: "$400 million in one week." The PR doesn't actually say that. It specifies by the end of launch week which if it indeed does include sales of the console bundle and the controllers includes an extra week of sales for the console (it went on sale 1 week prior to the game's official release) and 2 more weeks of sales for the controllers. Y'all need to mind the details of the statement. It is worded the way it is for a very specific reason. The effectiveness of the spin even here on GAF is just mind boggling.

Oh, my, I'd forgotten all about it being available a week earlier. No doubt that was what MS was counting on too.
 

ethomaz

Banned
First Amazon monthly update for November.

#16 / PS4 + Call of Duty: Black Ops III
#20 / PS4 + Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection
#27 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront LE
#30 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront
#37 / XB1 + Fallout 4
#56 / XB1 + Halo 5 LE
#72 / XB1 + Kinect
#75 / XB1 + Gears of War: Ultimate edition
#79 / XB1 + Madden NFL 16
#90 / WIU + Super Mario 3DWorld
It just.

And these preorder for Star Wars since September? CoD has preorders too?

Now I believe Sony will ship over 8 million this quarter.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Oh, my, I'd forgotten all about it being available a week earlier. No doubt that was what MS was counting on too.

Yep. I've already stated as much numerous times in Redon se to people spouting the "$400 million in one week" or even better "almost half a billion dollars in one week" bullshit. Prepare to see a lot of it during the NPD results thread.
 
Surprised the gears bundle isn't 249 with the 50 gift card. Usually you would expect ms to undercut by $50. With them at the same price very, very few people are going to pick an xbox over a PlayStation.



Microsoft had a pretty huge price advantage last year. You would expect them to try to undercut this year as well. Here is how different the Meijer Thanksgiving Day Console sales are from last year. Now last year, Meijer did the exact same thing as this year. Their "real" Black Friday was on Thanksgiving Day. At least that is when they had all the gaming deals, console deals, toy deals, etc. Same way this year.


Meijer 2014 Thanksgiving Day Ad:

PlayStation 4 GTA Bundle with The Last of Us = $399 with $50 off next purchase coupon. Essentially, $349.

Xbox One Assassin's Creed Bundle = $329 with $50 off next purchase coupon. Essentially, $279.


Microsoft had a price advantage of $70 in this same ad last year. The narrative of trying to maximize profits this year for MS, well.......
 

Shenmue

Banned
Microsoft had a pretty huge price advantage last year. You would expect them to try to undercut this year as well. Here is how different the Meijer Thanksgiving Day Console sales are from last year. Now last year, Meijer did the exact same thing as this year. Their "real" Black Friday was on Thanksgiving Day. At least that is when they had all the gaming deals, console deals, toy deals, etc. Same way this year.


Meijer 2014 Thanksgiving Day Ad:

PlayStation 4 GTA Bundle with The Last of Us = $399 with $50 off next purchase coupon. Essentially, $349.

Xbox One Assassin's Creed Bundle = $329 with $50 off next purchase coupon. Essentially, $279.


Microsoft had a price advantage of $70 in this same ad last year. The narrative of trying to maximize profits this year for MS, well.......

Ah I see, so there's still another ad coming where they can drop the price more. Yeah I fully expect MS to undercut again. I know just because they can doesn't mean they want to keep losing money on each sale, but I think this is the one time of the year they'll lose money hand over fist to keep the sales at least within sight of the PS4's sales. If they don't undercut, then it'll be a massacre like 2014 except the other way around.
 
First Amazon monthly update for November.

#16 / PS4 + Call of Duty: Black Ops III
#20 / PS4 + Uncharted: The Nathan Drake collection
#27 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront LE
#30 / PS4 + Star Wars Battlefront
#37 / XB1 + Fallout 4
#56 / XB1 + Halo 5 LE
#72 / XB1 + Kinect
#75 / XB1 + Gears of War: Ultimate edition
#79 / XB1 + Madden NFL 16
#90 / WIU + Super Mario 3DWorld


"We had more bundles sold during the month of November than any other gaming console!" -MSPR 5 bundles to 4, they aren't lying right?



Honestly though, there are quite a few months of preorders to add to this! Sony has built up a ton of momentum!


In Amazon Monthly Rankings:

September: Star Wars PS4 LE Bundle #16,

October: StarWars PS4 LE Bundle #26, COD PS4 Bundle #39, Star Wars PS4 Bundle #89
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I think both will launch slim models next year at 299$.
It's a pretty predictable move.

I'm thinking that at least MS will due to the size of the system. I'm fine with the current size to be honest (after experiencing overheating issues with my 360) but the system can definitely be smaller.
 
Ah I see, so there's still another ad coming where they can drop the price more. Yeah I fully expect MS to undercut again. I know just because they can doesn't mean they want to keep losing money on each sale, but I think this is the one time of the year they'll lose money hand over fist to keep the sales at least within sight of the PS4's sales. If they don't undercut, then it'll be a massacre like 2014 except the other way around.



No, no, there isn't another ad. I am saying, in Thanksgiving 2014 at Meijer, the X1 was $70 cheaper than a PS4. On Thanksgiving 2015 at Mejier, the X1 and PS4 are the same price!

It is weird, but follows the "maximize profits" narrative that some people were sharing. Microsoft had a pretty big price advantage at all stores last year during the Black Friday weekend. This year, it will be interesting to continue to monitor.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
"We had more bundles sold during the month of November than any other gaming console!" -MSPR 5 bundles to 4, they aren't lying right?

lmao

Honestly though, there are quite a few months of preorders to add to this! Sony has built up a ton of momentum!


In Amazon Monthly Rankings:

September: Star Wars PS4 LE Bundle #16,

October: StarWars PS4 LE Bundle #26, COD PS4 Bundle #39, Star Wars PS4 Bundle #89

Yup, CoD and Star Wars bundle has 2 months of pre orders before release.

PS4 sales are gonna be huge this holidays. :O

Probably you are remembering this from UK.

Where did you got that?
I remember PS4 won December, and November+December, but i'm sure XB1 has won November and Black Friday in UK.
 

Guymelef

Member
Where did you got that?
I remember PS4 won December, and November+December, but i'm sure XB1 has won November and Black Friday in UK.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/ps4-was-the-uk-s-best-selling-console-in-2014/0143505

Comes with this.
It was also the best-selling console in the final week of the year and the best-selling across November and December combined, although it has previously been claimed that Xbox One was the best-selling machine in November alone.
 

ps3ud0

Member
The way people are talking there seems a possibility that XO doesn't win another NPD in 2015 - kinda sounds like madness - I expect MS to go price crazy again as that would be a nightmare considering how they've marketed this holiday...

ps3ud0 8)
 

Elandyll

Banned
It just.

And these preorder for Star Wars since September? CoD has preorders too?

Now I believe Sony will ship over 8 million this quarter.

Amazon pre orders for PS4 to be added to November sales

September 2015
#16: Star Wars LE bundle

October 2015
#26: Star Wars LE bundle
#39: COD BLOPS 3 bundle
#89: Star Wars SE bundle
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
The way people are talking there seems a possibility that XO doesn't win another NPD in 2015 - kinda sounds like madness - I expect MS to go price crazy again as that would be a nightmare considering how they've marketed this holiday...

ps3ud0 8)

Ya its pretty sad really, specially because they have the most appealing games coming out this holiday. Looks like Sony will again be on top with the crazy 3rd party marketing and overall popularity of the console. I remember feeling sad for PS3 last gen. For exact same reason. Now tables have turned.
 

Chobel

Member
Ya its pretty sad really, specially because they have the most appealing games coming out this holiday. Looks like Sony will again be on top with the crazy 3rd party marketing and overall popularity of the console. I remember feeling sad for PS3 last gen. For exact same reason. Now tables have turned.

I remember you said that Sony can't win this Holiday unless they go cheaper than XBO, what happened to that?
 

mejin

Member


pusZpeq.jpg
 

Fat4all

Banned
I just can't see MS doing another across-the-board promotional cut.

They know they can't catch up even with cutting their own margins, they should focus on just staying profitable this holiday season.
 

Elandyll

Banned
The way people are talking there seems a possibility that XO doesn't win another NPD in 2015 - kinda sounds like madness - I expect MS to go price crazy again as that would be a nightmare considering how they've marketed this holiday...

ps3ud0 8)

Well, let's put it that way.
Every deals are crazy around BF, that's not new. And it's going to be the case for all consoles.

And the "season" has already started. Tomorrow is COD.
Tuesday is Fallout 4/ RotTR. The Tuesday after that it's Battlefront.

If there was going to be a game changer widespread price cut, it would have -already- happened.

Right now, MS is fighting back with a (relatively) weak "you can get yourself a COD bundle too!" with a free game for a few days at some retailers. That'll sell some, but nowhere near as much as a general "temporary" price cut for 2 months. That's more like damage control to mitigate the pre orders of the bundles. Somewhat.
 

Boke1879

Member
I just can't see MS doing another across-the-board promotional cut.

They know they can't catch up even with cutting their own margins, they should focus on just staying profitable this holiday season.

Yea I can't see it either. Doesn't mean it can't happen but I just don't see it. Black Friday we'll get deals from retailers that go down to $299 most likely but I can't see MS announcing something like that officially.
 

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I remember you said that Sony can't win this Holiday unless they go cheaper than XBO, what happened to that?

Halo 5 word of mouth doesn't seem that must go buy Xbox One as I expected. May be Halo tournament and momentum around that will do more market awareness. On top of that, based on these PS4 sale prices, they really are hitting the 300$ which I never expected. We will see though, I think during holiday, both console will sell out. It will depend on who will make more.
 

Elios83

Member
I dunno.. I feel like if the PS4 went any slimmer they'd have to have a separate brick to house the mobo CPU and GPU.

They just need to shrink the APU to a sub 20nm process. CPU and GPU have always been integrated on a single die.
Then everything else becomes smaller as a consequence (heatsink, motherboard, power supply).
That's the key component deciding when they can make a Slim model.

I'm thinking that at least MS will due to the size of the system. I'm fine with the current size to be honest (after experiencing overheating issues with my 360) but the system can definitely be smaller.

Remember that for them making a slim model is a way to cut costs first and foremost. It's in their financial interests.
They're not doing it for the sake of making it tiny and pretty.
That's a perceived added value that consumers see in it.

Also next year they need to reduce the entry price of PS4 to push Playstation VR as well, the whole package PS4+PSVR needs to be more affordable.
 

Boke1879

Member
Well, let's put it that way.
Every deals are crazy around BF, that's not new. And it's going to be the case for all consoles.

And the "season" has already started. Tomorrow is COD.
Tuesday is Fallout 4/ RotTR. The Tuesday after that it's Battlefront.

If there was going to be a game changer widespread price cut, it would have -already- happened.

Right now, MS is fighting back with a (relatively) weak "you can get yourself a COD bundle too!" with a free game for a few days at some retailers. That'll sell some, but nowhere near as much as a general "temporary" price cut for 2 months. That's more like damage control to mitigate the pre orders of the bundles. Somewhat.

Isn't it crazy that it's already COD tomorrow? Man then in a few days you have Fallout 4 and Tomb Raider and then a week later we got Battlefront. We're right on the doorstep but my brain keeps thinking we're still a few weeks out from these releases lol.

I guess I'm more so waiting for Black Friday...just to see the deals offered. That and we still have to wait a whole week for NPD lol.
 

Purest 78

Member
Amazon pre orders for PS4 to be added to November sales

September 2015
#16: Star Wars LE bundle

October 2015
#26: Star Wars LE bundle
#39: COD BLOPS 3 bundle
#89: Star Wars SE bundle

I'm beginning to think Nov will be a blood bath unless MS does something drastic.
 

Guymelef

Member

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Good luck :)

I starting to hope they will ship 8 million just because if will happen will be too hilarius. xD

But i still think won't happen, i believe they already overshipped in Q3 for the pricedrop incoming.

...But hey, if i'm wrong, you know what will happen. :p
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Remember that for them making a slim model is a way to cut costs first and foremost. It's in their financial interests.
They're not doing it for the sake of making it tiny and pretty.
That's a perceived added value that consumers see in it.

Definitely. I'm just saying it because a lot of current Xbox One owners would be interested in a smaller model (since the system is pretty large). It would do well whenever it released.

__________________

I'm beginning to think Nov will be a blood bath unless MS does something drastic.

Pre-orders from September and October will probably only make up around 1/8 of overall November sales. This is going to be a crazy month for game sales. Definitely seems like PS4 will take the Holiday season due to Star Wars & COD branding though. MS would need a $250 SKU at this point to make me feel differently.
 

Javin98

Banned
Of course we will see another insane deals, just wait and see.
But honestly, it looks like MS is not gonna be THAT crazy like last year.

XB1 sales was insane thanks insane deals and a strong line up in 2014. They have the marketing of Call od Durt Advanced Warfare and Assassin's Creed Unity, both with two bundle, but AW bundle was limited, the really strong point was the Assassin's Creed bundle.

This bundle was selling for $329 with 3 games last year ( one game + the two AC BF+Unity ).

This time MS have a lot, too much, of XB1 bundle at $399, and the main XB1 game, Halo 5, has a bundle at $499... They will have for sure very strong deals this Black Friday, but withouth the COD marketing, and the AC bundle of last year, i really can't see XB1 sell as good as last year.
For not even talk about those "disappoint" sales of Halo 5, which as for now we know are only 50% bigger than the MCC in UK...

About Sony, i honestly think PS4 has a good chance for sell what XB1 sold last holidays ( over 2.5 million ).

The Star Wars bundle can be huge nearly like the AC Unity+Black Flag bundle, and they have the Black Ops III marketing, which is gonna be bigger than Advanced Warfare since Activision already confirmed the pre orders are bigger.

Yeah, i think this November and December we will see some like:

PS4 2015 = XB1 2014 > XB1 2015 > PS4 2014

And yeah, PS4 sales last holidays was pretty "meh", at least in the US...
Yup, agreed completely. The PS4 is set to have an amazing holiday season. Assuming both Sony and Microsoft have even more insane deals on Black Friday, I can see the PS4 beating the XB1 by 200K or more. Hopefully, Sony learnt their lesson and prepared enough stock this time because those Battlefront bundles are gonna sell incredibly well.

It just.

And these preorder for Star Wars since September? CoD has preorders too?

Now I believe Sony will ship over 8 million this quarter.
I'm not too sure about shipping over 8 million just yet. 37 million by the end of 2015 should be within reach, so that would be 7.7 million shipped in Q4. Gotta wait for November NPD to see how well the PS4 will do this holidays.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Also next year they need to reduce the entry price of PS4 to push Playstation VR as well, the whole package PS4+PSVR needs to be more affordable.

I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.
 

Three

Member
I starting to hope they will ship 8 million just because if will happen will be too hilarius. xD

But i still think won't happen, i believe they already overshipped in Q3 for the pricedrop incoming.

...But hey, if i'm wrong, you know what will happen. :p
You'll order one of these
The-Chocolate-PS4-Birthday-Cake.jpg
 

stryke

Member
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.

Another price drop? No way.
 

Loris146

Member
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.

No way.
 

Javin98

Banned
I expect the PS4 to have another price drop in March with the launch of UC4 in preparation for PSVR, they need as many PS4s out there as possible, & they need the PS4VR bundle to be as affordable as possible, with another price cut, it's theoretically possible the PS4VR bundle will retail at 499, which is a good price for the bundle.
No way, man, that would be way too soon and they could devalue the console like Microsoft did, dropping the price so quickly. Now a price drop when PSVR launches is possible and I think the bundle will be at least $549.

Also, as for those who expected a XB1 price drop for the holidays, I hate to say it, but I told you so :p It could still happen, but at this point, I doubt it. BO3 releases today, holidays already began.
 
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