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[BobLoblaw]

well one good thing out of nafta gate is that the canadian opposition and population were so pissed at the Harper government of leaking the story that there might be a backlash and they might lose in the future election over this issue

If Obama does get in, he won't forget this. Politics is always about getting even when something like this happens.

 

[reilo]

I don't see which states can give her 400k-600k in the popular vote (I counted 400k myself, but 600k comes from another source posted in this thread). There aren't really a lot of states with large populations that would go to Clinton in an overwhelming fashion. It's also difficult to imagine her gaining about 100 pledged delegates over the next 12 contests. The only thing I can think of would be Florida and Michigan reentering the fray.

Or what Ghaleon said.

And Obama would win Michigan which would make her win in Florida a wash in popular votes.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Really? It looked like a pretty even contest going forward. They're going to be trading delegates with each round. If Obama's lead shrinks, I don't see it shrinking very much.

We just had 1/3 of the remaining delegates allocated, and Clinton picked up what, four?

It looked pretty even after Super Tuesday. Then Hillary lost every single contest held after Super Tuesday before this week came along.

 

[Star Power]

Can someone bullet point what the hell happened with this? I completely missed it.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23491522

 

[Mandark]

I'd say nobody among Bush, Clinton, and Reagan made a huge dent in the status quo.

Clinton went to the mat on a number of big, contentious bills in his first couple years. His administration won on deficit reduction and NAFTA and lost on healthcare. After the GOP swept Congress in 94 he was basically on defense. He was aggressive on middle class economic issues where he expected the backing of the public (Medicare, the government shutdown over the budget), and conceded ground where he figured the GOP had the advantage (welfare reform, DOMA).

Dubya got a war and a bunch of awful corporate bills. Reagan got a big regressive tax cut and higher defense spending. Neither of them achieved a lot of big movement conservative goals or were able to roll back the major parts of the New Deal and Great Society programs.

You could argue that the most damage Reagan and Dubya did on domestic policy was through staffing choices in the administrative branch and lax enforcement of labor, environmental and civil rights regulations.

I think the political gestalt is more important than whoever the president is. Nixon presided over the creation of a bunch of regulatory bodies to protect citizens and it wasn't cause he was a bleeding heart anti-corporatist.

Hopefully the math will be tilting towards Democrats and liberals for the next couple of decades regardless of who wins the White House this cycle. Though it would be nice if we could get a Democratic president and a ~56 majority in the Senate.

 

[Tamanon]

Can someone bullet point what the hell happened with this? I completely missed it.

Basically, the Obama adviser was contacted by the Canadian consulate about a month ago. Said the exact same things that Obama's been espousing, that he doesn't want to do away with it, just wants to finetune the labor and environmental standards because they're out of line for America. There's nothing about it being just "political speak" or whatnot, just your typical conversation.

The Clinton campaign made it out to be something completely different 3 days before the election, slammed Ohio with radio ads about it, slammed the media with reports on it, then promptly dropped it once the facts came out(oddly, right after the primary)....especially considering the Clinton campaign actually requested contact also.

 

[AniHawk]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23491522

Thanks. I'll watch it when I get home.

 

[schuelma]

It looked pretty even after Super Tuesday. Then Hillary lost every single contest held after Super Tuesday before this week came along.

Actually if you read between the lines during that time both camps knew Obama was likely to go on a big winning streak. The only surprise was how bad he crushed her.

 

[Tamanon]

Actually if you read between the lines during that time both camps knew Obama was likely to go on a big winning streak. The only surprise was how bad he crushed her.

Yeah, the Obama camp predicted he would win every state up until Wisconsin in that "accidental" release.

 

[AniHawk]

Basically, the Obama adviser was contacted by the Canadian consulate about a month ago. Said the exact same things that Obama's been espousing, that he doesn't want to do away with it, just wants to finetune the labor and environmental standards because they're out of line for America. There's nothing about it being just "political speak" or whatnot, just your typical conversation.

The Clinton campaign made it out to be something completely different 3 days before the election, slammed Ohio with radio ads about it, slammed the media with reports on it, then promptly dropped it once the facts came out(oddly, right after the primary)....especially considering the Clinton campaign actually requested contact also.

Huh. And this isn't being talked about, right? Because of Obama's negative campaigning or someshit?

 

[Qwerty710710]

It's not a large lead imo, but I wouldn't call it small. And it will continue to decrease as this contest goes on. As I said, all she needs to do is take it down <50 and regain the popular vote lead

This post confirms that you're a dumbass. His delegate lead will not shrink, hell by next week he's going to regain all of his delegates that lost (lol 4) and more with WY MS. He's going to win more states like NC and Oregon. Plus he'll be within 5-10 points in PA or pull off a upset.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Basically, the Obama adviser was contacted by the Canadian consulate about a month ago. Said the exact same things that Obama's been espousing, that he doesn't want to do away with it, just wants to finetune the labor and environmental standards because they're out of line for America. There's nothing about it being just "political speak" or whatnot, just your typical conversation.

The Clinton campaign made it out to be something completely different 3 days before the election, slammed Ohio with radio ads about it, slammed the media with reports on it, then promptly dropped it once the facts came out(oddly, right after the primary)....especially considering the Clinton campaign actually requested contact also.

Damn thats messed up. Is anyone calling her out about that?

 

[siamesedreamer]

I can't see any reason the 50-state strategy would be repealed unless it actually fails. It's been nothing but unmitigated success thus far.

Is it a success because it works? Or is it a success because of circumstance (re: Bush, cyclical turnover)?

 

[GhaleonEB]

It looked pretty even after Super Tuesday. Then Hillary lost every single contest held after Super Tuesday before this week came along.

Not really. Part of the reason Clinton started talking about Texas and Ohio right after Super Tuesday was because she knew the February road was a rough one for her. It's also partly that she didn't prepare for an extended race, as Obama did. But after the 5th last month, all I read about was how Clinton was going to have a tough month. She put up a bit of a fight in Wisconsin, but that's it.

Looking ahead, the road really is mixed. Obama should take the next two states easily. Clinton will take PA. Obama has a (current) edge in the two states after that, which have a bigger delegate pool than PA does. It's going to be bouncing back and forth, when Clinton needs to win consistently, and with big margins.

 

[reilo]

Is it a success because it works? Or is it a success because of circumstance (re: Bush, cyclical turnover)?

It's won the Dems the 06 elections and it's winning Obama the current nomination. So, thus far, it's working.

 

[Rur0ni]

By the way, where the hell is the new thread? Isn't the next primary on Saturday?

When I get home in a couple hours. It's already ready for posting.

 

[Loudninja]

It's not a large lead imo, but I wouldn't call it small. And it will continue to decrease as this contest goes on. As I said, all she needs to do is take it down <50 and regain the popular vote lead

What?decrease?Umm no, its actually the same.:lol

 

[Tamanon]

Is it a success because it works? Or is it a success because of circumstance (re: Bush, cyclical turnover)?

Ergo my caveat of "until it fails"

 

[siamesedreamer]

My additional points:

-McCain courts to the biggest potential swings in the Republican party, the fiscal republicans. As opposed to Obama, who courts to African Americans, who will go Democratic no matter what, who cannot seem to carry Latinos. If Latinos flipped to McCain, McCain would easily win the election. Obama has an advantage with Independants in general, but it's not really fair to say that just because Obama has shown doing better with Independants there wouldn't be a sizeable amount of Independants who wouldn't vote for Hillary as a second option. I'd argue Hillary has a better chance of scoring Moderate Republican Women than Obama will from Independants after the general election campaigning is underway. Hillary also carries the swing Latino vote in large margins.

-Obama's big delegate advantage comes from not just red states, but red state CAUCUSES. An entire base of the Democratic party are people that are blue collar workers -- workers that have a much harder time going to caucus or showing up to them. Not only has Obama not done well amongst this group -- but the other group, the higher income voters, which allowed him to win so many caucuses -- this group is quintessential to at least two major swing states in the general: Ohio and Pennsylvania.

-Speaking of swing states, Obama hasn't won practically any of them, sans Missouri by a mere 10,000 votes. It might seem foolish and wrong to declare certain states "more important" than others, and you guys give Hillary a lot of flack for it, but there IS a case for it to some extent, and to deny it would be so utterly naive. States like Utah, Texas, Idaho, Wyoming, Kanses, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, Alaska... they're not going to go Democratic no matter what. If you want to add Arizona to that list due to McCain, Obama amasses a huge state, and with it, delegate lead from a ton of states that should have no real business in picking the Democratic nominee. Obama being the nominee over Clinton puts very few states into play that Clinton herself couldn't put into play. The only notable one I can think of is Virginia, but that is still Republican leaning. And yet, if Obama is the nominee, he'd have a harder time in Pennsylvania and New Jersey over McCain. Why would you trade a much tougher time in Pennsylvania or New Jersey (I've seen two polls showing McCain beating Obama in NJ as of right not) for Virginia? If Obama has a problem with Latinos and McCain himself does well amongst them, the southwest becomes a lot more contested. On the other hand, if Hillary is the nominee, she could be counted on to carry even weak Democratic states and could be counted on much more to carry the Latino vote in the southwest -- which John McCain will be competing hard for.

-Obama could see himself getting trounced by McCain in Ohio. It's a working class, pro-Military state. Obama is NEITHER of those things. Does Obama have an edge because he's a Democrat? Yes, but, again, why would you want to have the candidate that's going to have a harder time winning it? Florida is also similar, except that Obama's likely to get beaten much more handidly there than Hillary.

-Demographics. You know what the swing demographics are, particularly IN THOSE SWING STATES LIKE OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LATINOS? Catholics. The only group that Hillary tied Obama in even in Illinois. Obama has sometimes really narrowly won the Catholic vote, but he's only won it by one or two points in states he won by in a landslide (Virginia, Wisconsin). Otherwise, Hillary Clinton does MUCH, MUCH, MUCH better with Catholics. Almost any survey site will show you this -- Gallup and Politico had stories on it in particular.

-Many uninformed people think Obama's a Muslim. Republicans ain't gonna be afraid to use his middle name.

-I think Hillary will not be able to get the party's nomination, however, without the popular vote, at minimum including Florida barring a redo.

-Obama still hasn't proven he could withstand Republican attack. Seriously, you all were so busy throwing hatred at Hillary for daring to go negative against him, when it should've been scaring the utter living bajeebus out of you that it took only three days of going negative against Obama (granted with some convienent timing as far as some other factors but still) for him to LOSE TEXAS.

One more - National Security

All it took was one hypothetical phone call ad to sink Obama in two states. This hints at the idea that national security could play a much larger role in the general than some are thinking.

Even though he's wearing the Iraq collar (which can be mitigated somewhat by his surge positioning), I'll take my chances with McCain on the national security argument against Obama any day of the week.

 

[Star Power]

One more - National Security

All it took was one hypothetical phone call ad to sink Obama in two states. This hints at the idea that national security could play a much larger role in the general than some are thinking.

Even though he's wearing the Iraq collar (which can be mitigated somewhat by his surge positioning), I'll take my chances with McCain on the national security argument against Obama any day of the week.

You are mischaracterizing what actually happened in Ohio and Texas. The 3 AM ads didn't "sink him," especially not in Ohio - where she was always ahead in every poll up to and including the day of the primary. He had a bad newsweek overall, she had a excellent week, did the comedy show circuit, did some negative ads, etc. etc. It's not as black-and-white as you're making it out to be.

 

[AniHawk]

Texas and Ohio were Hillary's states to lose. She had a huge lead a few weeks before that was almost negated in Texas (and was won by Obama in total delegates), and was minimized in Ohio.

 

[grandjedi6]

One more - National Security

All it took was one hypothetical phone call ad to sink Obama in two states. This hints at the idea that national security could play a much larger role in the general than some are thinking.

Even though he's wearing the Iraq collar (which can be mitigated somewhat by his surge positioning), I'll take my chances with McCain on the national security argument against Obama any day of the week.

Did it? The ad only played in Texas districts that already leaned Hillary. And 52 to 35 percent of voters told exit pollers that the ad was unfair

 

[Frank the Great]

i finally finished my barack smith avatar. heres my old obama-is-invincible one if anyone wants it now, or if they want to save it and use it later for the run up to the general election

 

[siamesedreamer]

The ad only played in Texas districts that already leaned Hillary.

No it didn't. I was in Houston Monday night and saw it three times in one hour.

 

[grandjedi6]

No it didn't. I was in Houston Monday night and saw it three times in one hour.

hmm, someone needs to go smack around Slate then

 

[Mandark]

Is it a success because it works? Or is it a success because of circumstance (re: Bush, cyclical turnover)?

Both.

Frag's already pointed out the failure of the alternative, which was Rahm Emanuel's strategy of trying to identify swing seats and focusing all the resources on them.

That only works if you can accurately identify all the swing seats (you can't) and there isn't a diminishing return for money in these campaigns (there is).

 

[Cheebs]

I know about Clinton and Bush. Thought Reagan must have had a majority because of the peoples' fervor for him

Nope. There was always a Dem speaker of the house sitting behind Reagan in his state of the union speeches. Democrats even gained seats under reagan in 1986.

 

[gkryhewy]

Random:

Obama getting a little love on the local (Philly) sports cable roundtable, of all places.

Host: What's a dirtier business, sports or politics?

Commentator (Dick Jerardi, 50-ish white guy): Both, but politics is dirtier. Here you have a guy trying to do things in a new way, a positive way, Barack Obama, and he just gets attacked.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Clinton didn't get major things done...

Welfare Reform

 

[AniHawk]

Random:

Obama getting a little love on the local (Philly) sports cable roundtable, of all places.

Host: What's a dirtier business, sports or politics?

Commentator (Dick Jerardi, 50-ish white guy): Both, but politics is dirtier. Here you have a guy trying to do things in a new way, a positive way, Barack Obama, and he just gets attacked.

Did anyone watch Colbert last night? He had a friend of the Clintons on who, after much prodding said that he'd rather have a "chocolate bunny" than a "marshmallow chick" on Easter. Colbert looked shocked.

 

[siamesedreamer]

Frag's already pointed out the failure of the alternative, which was Rahm Emanuel's strategy of trying to identify swing seats and focusing all the resources on them.

OK...I thought that 's what the 50 state strategy entailed. Guess I need to read up on it.

 

[Cheebs]

Welfare Reform

And NAFTA.

 

[itsgreen]

Whats up with the caucuses in texas? CNN still @ 41%?

 

[ratcliffja]

Try this

http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/georgetown/2008/03/huckobama.html

The more I hear from Obama, the more I love the guy. He's true to his faith without ostracizing non-Christians.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Whats up with the caucuses in texas? CNN still @ 41%?

It will be done soon. Give it another week or so.

 

[ConfusingJazz]

Whats up with the caucuses in texas? CNN still @ 41%?

The returns are only legally required to be postmarked today.

 

[Star Power]

The Odd Couple:

 

[methane47]

Did anyone watch Colbert last night? He had a friend of the Clintons on who, after much prodding said that he'd rather have a "chocolate bunny" than a "marshmallow chick" on Easter. Colbert looked shocked.

yeah i saw it.. .it was hilarious!

"Which would you prefer? Big Momma's House or Medea's Family Reunion? BE WARNED though... both are about older women who are really black men on the inside.."

:lol

 

[Slurpy]

When people state that they don't see a difference between Obama's character and integrity, from that of Clinton's. Just answer me this:

-Can you honestly imagine Obama acting anywhere near how Clinton did, jumping up and down with the SHAME ON YOU, SHAME ON YOU shrieking?

- can you imagine Obama ridiculing Clinton, mocking her, in the same style as she did with her whole ridiculous 'Celestial Choirs' act?

When I try to imagine him acting in that fashion, I realized he's never stooped to that level, anytime during his campaign, and I cant imagine him doing so. The difference between their level of self-control and respect are night and day. I'm left scratching my head as to how don't see, don't admit to, or don't care for the massive distinction in their conduct. Really, what in the hell do you even look for in a commander-in-chief when it comes to character? It shows an utter lack of inner strength.

 

[reilo]

What's with all the HDR bloom effects on CNN with Loud Dobbs Tonight?

 

[APF]

I can imagine Obama bare-naked except for a pair of pumps and a riding crop stuck in an intriguing area.

That's just me though.

 

[Ripclawe]

The Odd Couple:

This Hillary/McCain lovefest is weird but if they want to portray Obama as young and inexperienced it works.

In a Cabinet-style setting, surrounded by retired military leaders, Sen. Hillary Clinton said the public should ask whether Democratic presidential rival Barack Obama has met the criteria needed to become the nation’s commander in chief.

“I think that since we now know Sen. (John) McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant’s bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.

“I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy,” she said.

Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a “distinguished man with a great history of service to our country,” Clinton said, “Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold. That is a critical criterion for the next Democratic nominee to deal with.”

 

[Tyrone Slothrop]

When people state that they don't see a difference between Obama's character and integrity, from that of Clinton's. Just answer me this:

-Can you honestly imagine Obama acting anywhere near how Clinton did, jumping up and down with the SHAME ON YOU, SHAME ON YOU shrieking?

- can you imagine Obama ridiculing Clinton, mocking her, in the same style as she did with her whole ridiculous 'Celestial Choirs' act?

When I try to imagine him acting in that fashion, I realized he's never stooped to that level, anytime during his campaign, and I cant imagine him doing so. The difference between their level of self-control and respect are night and day. I'm left scratching my head as to how don't see, don't admit to, or don't care for the massive distinction in their conduct. Really, what in the hell do you even look for in a commander-in-chief when it comes to character? It shows an utter lack of inner strength.

its true i could never see obama doing that. but i don't think hillary's stooping to egregious lows, like some people here suggest. as somebody who usually defends clinton, i've got to say she's made me cock an eyebrow these past few months. but overall, it's politics as usual

edit: the celestial choirs thing just good old fashioned ribbing. thats nowhere near below the belt

 

[AltogetherAndrews]

Age really shouldn't be the strong point that they are pushing it as. Evidently, too long in the system turns you into a dusty bat that is incapable of anything but turncoat ax-wielder politics.

Although the irony here is that Bill Clinton was at one point hailed as the young, fresh alternative.

 

[reilo]

Age really shouldn't be the strong point that they are pushing it as. Evidently, too long in the system turns you into a dusty bat that is incapable of anything but turncoat ax-wielder politics.

Although the irony here is that Bill Clinton was at one point hailed as the young, fresh alternative.

Bill Clinton was the same age as Obama when he ran for office. He was only 32 when he became governor.

 

[CowboyAstronaut]

Whats up with the caucuses in texas? CNN still @ 41%?

Obama was leading time to "fix" things.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Obama was leading time to "fix" things.

I remember that Hillary memo demanding the caucus results be delayed. Don't know if this has anything to do with it, but it does make me wonder.

 

[reilo]

I didn't know Obama co-sponsored some of McCain's border security and immigration bills.

Wonder if McCain will bring those up to help lure in the latino vote when Obama was in favor of both of those bills. Interesting.

Lou Dobbs ranting [yea.. again] on border security and immigration right now, which made me look those up again.