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[VRMN]

I'm pretty surprised the Koch suckers are actually going to throw money behind Walker. Seems like you might as well throw those hundreds of millions down a well.

It's what they did last time, too, so they may be used to it.

 

[thepotatoman]

I love that the two biggest losers are the two candidates the establishment wants most badly. They really cannot control the beast they've created.

It doesn't help that they also chose two pretty horrible candidates to rally behind.

 

[GSR]

EDIT: Actually, no, the post that was here wasn't really helping. Too far from the topic and a bit too confrontational.

More on topic: Walker is just plummeting, isn't he? I thought he was set to go the distance, but it'll be interesting to see where he is in a few months' time.

 

[ivysaur12]

The Walker and Rubio implosions are really surprising. I would not have called that.

 

[And_Gignac]

Merica is gonna vote for the populist wildly successful capitalist over the socialist anytime.


Why would independents vote for Bernie Sanders when they can partake in the largest, most wide open unpredictable field of modern times on the Republican side? Hell I know Democrats who are going to cross over for the primaries for the fun of it.

Truthfully if your political strategy is reliant on getting right wingers/non-Democrats and long time disaffected non-voters to the polls, it's probably going nowhere.

Sanders rallies are as big as they are because he has been able to energize not only the liberal base but the independent, anti-establishment base. Much like Ron Paul did in 2012, which garnered him 21% in Iowa and 23% in NH (even when he was just being pushed by the libertarian wing of the GOP and had little appeal with the conservative base).

Obviously, I dont think Sanders is trying to rely on such demographics. I am just arguing that once he gains popularity with minorities (the debates are crucial for this) he can create a broader electoral alliance.

 

[jtb]

Sanders rallies are as big as they are because he has been able to energize not only the liberal base but the independent, anti-establishment base. Much like Ron Paul did in 2012, which garnered him 21% in Iowa and 23% in NH (even when he was just being pushed by the libertarian wing of the GOP and had little appeal).

Obviously, I dont think Sanders is trying to rely on such demographics I am just arguing that once he gains popularity with minorities (the debates are crucial for this) he can create a broader electoral alliance.

But how did that work out for Ron Paul?

 

[Suikoguy]

The Walker and Rubio implosions are really surprising. I would not have called that.

Same for Bush.

Although, Walker failing is not surprising

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm going to posit that [real or perceived] electability is of greater concern to the poor minority and/or female voter than the affluent white male, as various issues of importance and at risk in the event of the loss of the Executive are more likely to directly and immediately affect them.

For the latter it's "I care about your issues" while the former "That's nice I guess, but I live with those issues."

 

[boiled goose]

I'm glad the establishment candidates are tanking. I prefer a populist if confused trump over a corrupt sellout

 

[Suikoguy]

I'm glad the establishment candidates are tanking. I prefer a populist if confused trump over a corrupt sellout

Right now, it may be for the best, it will certainly shift the conversation.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

While "anti establishment" sounds good in principle, candidates DO matter. Voting for trump is encouraging anti minority rhetoric.

 

[tanooki27]

I refuse to believe America will elect someone who looks as dumb as Scott Walker

 

[SolarPowered]

I don't get how the socialist is not popular with poor people.

Is it ok to make fun of these people like its ok to make fun of southern people on welfare voting R? Some seem to be giving them the benefit of the doubt, that they are backing Hillary as a defensive move to ensure the GOP doesn't win the executive... I think this is quite a stretch. I think they are probably just as ignorant as poor republicans.

They are and there is always time in the information age. There has never been a time as amazing as this one for humankind. Almost all the information in the world is just a few taps/keystrokes away. Twenty minutes a day in just a month will tell you most of what you need to know about nearly all the presidential candidates which should be more than enough to pick a couple you like. I don't think either sides of the political electorate are working so hard that they can't spend less than half an hour every other day educating themselves about the candidates and important issues. This is the nation of American Idol, Honey Boo Boo and excess media consumption after all. We practically invented procrastination and media over-stimulation.

 

[danwarb]

He's made very few inroads with key parts of the Democratic coalition. I believe it was Nate Cohn or Nate Silver mathed and found that affluent white educated liberal white voters are only about 30% of the Democratic primary constituency.

I think the debates will help him a lot. He just needs a bigger platform. Sanders is all about improving the lot of the poorest, middle class and minorities.

 

[sphagnum]

I refuse to believe America will elect someone who looks as dumb as Scott Walker

I don't get how the socialist is not popular with poor people.

Americans have poor political education and the phrase "socialist" is a demonized term here that brings up Cold War propaganda about the USSR. Capitalists have been very successful at convincing oppressed people that capitalism is their way to success because if they just try hard enough one day they too can be rich - but not if those lazy poors keep sucking away their money on welfare by raising taxes! This ties in with racism since it is widely supposed among the uneducated people that minorities, primarily black people, are lazy and shiftless and won't go to work to help themselves but just want to live off the Hard Working Man's Dime through abusing the welfare system. There's also a host of cultural issues that lead to white working class voters (who are, gain, often undereducated) to support the conservative platform, like homophobia, anti-feminism, support for religion etc. since many of these cultural issues are seen as an affront to the privileges that these people feel are the last things giving them meaning in an increasingly unstable world.

In terms of poor minorities, Sanders is an unknown going up against someone who has been popular with them for a long time and has a bunch of white liberal college supporters who don't have to live the reality that they do but claim to know how to solve the problem. Regardless of whether or not Hillary is really a good candidate for them that doesn't come off as promising.

 

[Lazyslob]

will there ever be like a revision to this old ass way of choosing a leader. i know people like to jock this system hard for whatever reason

 

[Oddish1]

I think the debates will help him a lot. He just needs a bigger platform. Sanders is all about improving the lot of the poorest, middle class and minorities.

Well he's debating with Democrats, they're all technically for improving the lives of the poor, middle class, and minorities. How they plan to do it may differ, but Clinton and Sanders aren't really all that different politically.

 

[boiled goose]

While "anti establishment" sounds good in principle, candidates DO matter. Voting for trump is encouraging anti minority rhetoric.

With a corrupt government you can't do anything even when the populace is in consensus.

If trump would somehow be able to end money in politics then id sacrifice every other issue in the short run.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Looks like an outlier to me. Fox polling has been understating Clinton's support relative to other polls for a while now. They keep showing Jeb! doing great against her even though his campaign is floundering.

Establishment just trying to run a narrative. Look how electable he is guys! Forget Trump.

 

[Kusagari]

But how did that work out for Ron Paul?

Ron Paul was at odds with the majority of the GOP on countless issues.

Sanders really isn't.

I'm not sure if he'll really gain that much more support from the debates, but the fact I showed above is one of the reasons I hate the Sanders/Paul comparison.

Outside of the socialist boogeyman, Sanders isn't out of place with the Democratic majority like Ron Paul was with the Republicans.

 

[MrToughPants]

Wow. Sanders is coming hard. Love it.

Lol

 

[Flo_Evans]

I'm going to posit that [real or perceived] electability is of greater concern to the poor minority and/or female voter than the affluent white male, as various issues of importance and at risk in the event of the loss of the Executive are more likely to directly and immediately affect them.

For the latter it's "I care about your issues" while the former "That's nice I guess, but I live with those issues."

I think you are probably correct for people that are really into politics. I don't think Bernie even registers for most people, trump is not just sucking up all the air on the GOP side you barely hear about him even on msnbc.

It's also true I personally really wouldn't be effected if obamacare was repealed, abortion outlawed, gay marriage not recognized, and the drug war/mass incarceration continues. Even if the evil republicans do win I don't think they will be able to accomplish any of that.

I'm just not a fan of the "safe bet" I actually think that is Hillary's greatest weakness. Lots of people assume she has it in the bag so they will just not bother turning up. She needs to do something to energize the electorate.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

With a corrupt government you can't do anything even when the populace is in consensus.

If trump would somehow be able to end money in politics then id sacrifice every other issue in the short run.

A candidacy or presidency cannot change a deep rooted system. He would just be a blip because he was personally wealthy enough to not need it. Money and politics are just going to keep going in one direction.

 

[boiled goose]

Well he's debating with Democrats, they're all technically for improving the lives of the poor, middle class, and minorities. How they plan to do it may differ, but Clinton and Sanders aren't really all that different politically.

On stated policies they are not so different but underneath that they are worlds apart. Hillary plays ball with the establishment and money in politics while Bernie is a populist.

Think of all of the biggest problems in our country now.
Industrial prison complex.
Military industrial complex.
LACK of education funding.
War on drugs.
Lack of gun regulation.
The whole net neutrality thing
Wealth inequality

All of these are affected by money in politics . People are justifiably skeptical that Clinton can achieve change by being part of this corrupt system.

 

[shintoki]

I guess here is my thing.


What is the possibility of Sanders being VP? He does seem to be resonating pretty well with younger voters. So a Clinton/Sanders ticket would be pretty powerful since it would basically solidity the entire democratic voting party under one roof.

 

[ivysaur12]

I guess here is my thing.


What is the possibility of Sanders being VP? He does seem to be resonating pretty well with younger voters. So a Clinton/Sanders ticket would be pretty powerful since it would basically solidity the entire democratic voting party under one roof.

Probably not -- for one, I don't think it's something Sanders would be very interested in, and also, Hillary doesn't really need Sanders besides youthful enthusiasm. If Sherrod Brown were where Bernie is now, then yes, absolutely. But Vermont is going D no matter what.

Her running mate will probably be Tim Kaine, Tom Vilsack, or Julian Castro. Each one of those covers an important base of support that Hillary will need.

 

[deltatheta]

So many people were saying just weeks ago that Sanders had literally zero chance.

Yeah, the odds are stacked against him, and there's probably a slim chance he'll ever get anywhere near the white house, but I wish people would be more judicious about promulgating the "no chance at all meme" and ask questions about which parties are pushing that idea and who it serves. There's a difference between small chance and zero chance. Stranger things have happened and the electoral system is very chaotic.

 

[boiled goose]

So many people were saying just weeks ago that Sanders had literally zero chance.

Yeah, the odds are stacked against him, and there's probably a slim chance he'll ever get anywhere near the white house, but I wish people would be more judicious about promulgating the "no chance at all meme" and ask questions about which parties are pushing that idea and who it serves. There's a difference between small chance and zero chance. Stranger things have happened and the electoral system is very chaotic.

Yup and unlike in smaller elections presidential elections get a lot of free coverage.money is less important

 

[Days like these...]

I'm going to posit that [real or perceived] electability is of greater concern to the poor minority and/or female voter than the affluent white male, as various issues of importance and at risk in the event of the loss of the Executive are more likely to directly and immediately affect them.

For the latter it's "I care about your issues" while the former "That's nice I guess, but I live with those issues."

Anectdotal and all I know but as a minority I've talked to many Blacks and Latinos about Bernie and not one has brought up his 'lack of electability'. Most minorities I've talked to have no clue who he is which is a huge problem but that can be overcome.

 

[sphagnum]

Anectdotal and all I know but as a minority I've talked to many Blacks and Latinos about Bernie and not one has brought up his 'lack of electability'. Most minorities I've talked to have no clue who he is which is a huge problem but that can be overcome.

Yeah, I would think his primary problem is simply that most people don't know who he is. My girlfriend (who is Filipino) and one of her best friends (who is black) who both work in food service have been trying to inform their coworkers about him and so far the primary obstruction is just that they go "Who?" followed by "Well yeah that sounds good but Hillary is so much more likely to win."

 

[Kusagari]

Anectdotal and all I know but as a minority I've talked to many Blacks and Latinos about Bernie and not one has brought up his 'lack of electability'. Most minorities I've talked to have no clue who he is which is a huge problem but that can be overcome.

The only time my black friends have heard about him, other than from me, is the Netroots/Seattle debacles.

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[And_Gignac]

Anectdotal and all I know but as a minority I've talked to many Blacks and Latinos about Bernie and not one has brought up his 'lack of electability'. Most minorities I've talked to have no clue who he is which is a huge problem but that can be overcome.

He is gaining support there too. He went from 9% to 14% with non-whites.

Hillary raised from 59% to 65%, though.

 

[Kusagari]

Heh, I looked into the poll results and you can really see how much the Tea Party hates Jeb.

In the Hillary/Jeb/Trump scenario Trump actually gets more Tea Party support than Jeb. In the Hillary/Rubio/Trump scenario Rubio gets 48% of the Tea Party vote to only 20 something for Trump.

 

[ivysaur12]

He is gaining support there too. He went from 9% to 14% with non-whites.

Hillary raised from 59% to 65%, though.

Yeah, I think Bernie's electoral problems are best summed up in this Alabama primary poll:

http://wkrg.com/2015/08/12/alabama-republicans-favor-trump-by-wide-margin/

Among Alabama Democrats, Hillary Clinton has an enormous lead over Bernie Sanders, 78-percent to 10-percent.

And Nate Cohn brings up another potential problem with the Bernie campaign:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
@cspkcats that's a separate issue. if hillary goes to jail or something, fine. but that's not about iowa and new hampshire

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
@cspkcats and, should she collapse, bernie still won't win alabama. someone else will

I don't think that's the case, but it's a potential issue that the Bernie campaign would have to deal with if the Hillary campaign fell apart. Which, it probably won't, at least not at this stage.

EDIT: Basically, this map is pretty good indicator of their strengths:

 

[Future]

If you are a sane republican you have to be miffed. I mean look at those candidates. Trump leading the pack and Carson next. Wtf is this shit right here. Can anyone picture these bafoons as an actual president.

Democrats don't have as many candidates, but Hillary and Biden are safe comfortable bets. At least you can kinda picture them as president whether you like them or not. Bernie is the democrats trump in terms of shaking things up... Just instead of spewing bullshit he is in love with socialism

 

[Walpurgis]

Man, I wish Sanders was Canadian, we could use him in our elections. I hope he keeps working his way up, the US really needs him.

We have Elizabeth May of the Green Party which is even better.

I'm going to posit that [real or perceived] electability is of greater concern to the poor minority and/or female voter than the affluent white male, as various issues of importance and at risk in the event of the loss of the Executive are more likely to directly and immediately affect them.

For the latter it's "I care about your issues" while the former "That's nice I guess, but I live with those issues."

This is how it is in Canada (at least in my family and friends).

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Damn. Huge age/income/gender/race gaps. Bernie is dominating with young affluent white dudes.

I suppose I should be surprised given: https://www.reddit.com/r/sandersforpresident

 

[Oddish1]

On stated policies they are not so different but underneath that they are worlds apart. Hillary plays ball with the establishment and money in politics while Bernie is a populist.

Think of all of the biggest problems in our country now.
Industrial prison complex.
Military industrial complex.
LACK of education funding.
War on drugs.
Lack of gun regulation.
The whole net neutrality thing
Wealth inequality

All of these are affected by money in politics . People are justifiably skeptical that Clinton can achieve change by being part of this corrupt system.

Well, I was responding to someone who was talking to how they are perceived during the debates and that Bernie would get attention for his support of the poor and minorities, but during the debates they're all going to be very similar on social issues. So I can't see it mattering that much.

But to what you're saying, for President I don't think it matters all that much. Obama was president when Citizens United happened and there wasn't anything he could do about it. Similarly, with the way Congress is made up will make it difficult for Sanders or Clinton to pursue very many liberal agendas and they're both going to appoint liberal Supreme Court Justices. So I think on social issues and domestically Clinton and Sanders would look very similar.

 

[sphagnum]

If you are a sane republican you have to be miffed.

This doesn't really exist anymore. At most there are "pragmatic" Republicans, which are capitalists who don't care about the culture wars, but whose primary purpose is to use the party to further their FYGM agenda.

 

[SolarPowered]

On stated policies they are not so different but underneath that they are worlds apart. Hillary plays ball with the establishment and money in politics while Bernie is a populist.

Think of all of the biggest problems in our country now.
Industrial prison complex.
Military industrial complex.
LACK of education funding.
War on drugs.
Lack of gun regulation.
The whole net neutrality thing
Wealth inequality

All of these are affected by money in politics . People are justifiably skeptical that Clinton can achieve change by being part of this corrupt system.

Don't forget climate change or voter representation issues (gerrymandering, citizen's united and congressional term limits). Climate Change is a particularly huge issue. Mother Nature won't distinguish between class, race, religion or ideology when our oceans acidify, our crops wither and our summers cook us.

 

[VanWinkle]

Is Rand Paul not running anymore? I don't see his name on that list.

 

[Suikoguy]

Is Rand Paul not running anymore? I don't see his name on that list.

It is so damn amusing it took this long for anybody to notice he was left out of the OP.

Bwhahahahaha

He got 3% in the poll.

 

[PopeReal]

What a shit list. I wonder how Gaf republicans are feeling right now. The crazy guy with a build a wall idea and not much else is crushing it.

 

[danm999]

I'm guessing Rand's plan to pitch himself as an anti-establishment outsider is having a lot less bite in a field with Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorini etc

 

[Flo_Evans]

I suppose I should be surprised given: https://www.reddit.com/r/sandersforpresident

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, but I see Cornel West just endorsed him as "the best candidate for African Americans"

 

[Damaniel]

EDIT: Basically, this map is pretty good indicator of their strengths:

So Bernie has support mainly in the places where Democrats always have support, but Hillary's support extends into states where Democrats are usually very weak. Doesn't look too good for Bernie, to tell the truth - this chart shows that he's the candidate of choice for rich white liberals and not much else.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Rubio down?

Thank you for vacating your seat.

 

[Inuhanyou]

I don't trust Fox news, but it would be nice to see Bernie within striking distance, that would give him some time to close the gap. But he has a lot to do courting the minority vote considering they don't really know his platform unlike Hillary

My question is: why do people think that young liberal white voters are Bernie's only constituency on the issues considering his platform? All he needs o do is let other people hear and they will follow

 

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Not sure what that is supposed to mean, but I see Cornel West just endorsed him as "the best candidate for African Americans"

It's a very large and active subreddit on a site that meets the demographics he dominates.