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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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K

Koren

Member
Coffinhal said:
There's Nothing that shows that Le Pen could win over Fillon in the 2nd round.
Click to expand...
With our stupid two-turn system, that may be another thing against Fillon in the first turn, I'm sure that many people don't want Lepen and will want to avoid a 2nd turn situation that could be tricky.

I love the charts you post, but I wonder...

Who would vote for Fillon in first turn, and vote for Lepen in second turn in a Fillon-Lepen 2nd turn? Same for people voting Macron in 1st turn and Lepen in 2nd turn in a Macron-Lepen situation?

I can "understand" people voting Lepen in 1st turn as a "warning" (even if I still find it stupid) and changing their vote in 2nd turn because they don't really want FN in charge, but what is the logic to do this with Fillon or Macron ?

Holden said:
new polls

2 Other polls showing the same increase for Macron

The Bayrou boost sure helping him out
Click to expand...
Is it, really? I'm surprised to see Jadot here, since he gave up a couple hours after Bayrou. Has the survey been conducted inbetween?

mo60 said:
I just hope Macron winning the presidential election hurts the FN enough that they aren't a threat in the 2022 presidential elections. I just don't want to see the Marine Le Pen or another FN presidential candidate in the second round again in 2022.
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I wish (any reason will do), but I don't believe it.
 
M

mo60

Member
whyamihere said:
Oh man. Fillon is collapsing.
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The question is if Macron can stay this high in the polls until April 23rd. It will be amazing if Le Pen ends up in second place after the first round. It will be way easier to crush her in the second round if she finished in second place in the first round.
 
C

Coffinhal

Member
Koren said:
With our stupid two-turn system, that may be another thing against Fillon in the first turn, I'm sure that many people don't want Lepen and will want to avoid a 2nd turn situation that could be tricky.

I love the charts you post, but I wonder...

Who would vote for Fillon in first turn, and vote for Lepen in second turn in a Fillon-Lepen 2nd turn? Same for people voting Macron in 1st turn and Lepen in 2nd turn in a Macron-Lepen situation?

I can "understand" people voting Lepen in 1st turn as a "warning" (even if I still find it stupid) and changing their vote in 2nd turn because they don't really want FN in charge, but what is the logic to do this with Fillon or Macron ?
Click to expand...

I don't know, it's like 1 or 2% IIRC, you would have to have qualitative data (1-2h interviews) with these people to provide a correct (and interesting) answer. They're within the margin of error so far, they may not even exist.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I only heard that he cancelled his appearance at the "Salon de l'Agriculture" (major show for everything agricultural, that is a must-go for all politicians and especially candidates to the presidency).
*e - rumors say he's preparing a new press release.
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
Someone at work mentioned he was going to make a press conference behind closed doors sometime today. I can't find a source, so it might be fake news, but yeah, he's still in the ropes.

The Salon de l'Agriculture cancelling is a really bad look.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I don't think he will resign, it's too late now and he'll go all the way.
From what I understand from the rumors, he cancelled after he got a convocation from the "instruction judge", but that would be to take time to decide with his team whether he should answer or not (in a similar situation, Le Pen didn't), and probably needs some time to prepare.
 
P

Palette Swap

Member
That conference is there to get in front of whatever is happening right now. Considering how bad they've been at damage control so far, I half expect Fillon to be behind Hamon in polls by next week.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I would have been very surprised if he had been in custody. Even if everything he's suspected of was true and more, I don't think that would warrant a "garde à vue".
 
H

Herb Alpert

Banned
Fillon is consulting a lot of people this morning including juppe and no one talks

There is definitely something weird going on here.
 
S

Simplet

Member
This is really looking like Fillon will step down...

Will be interesting to see for sure! These elections have certainly been... different.
 
F

FDC1

Member
Koren said:
With our stupid two-turn system, that may be another thing against Fillon in the first turn, I'm sure that many people don't want Lepen and will want to avoid a 2nd turn situation that could be tricky.

I love the charts you post, but I wonder...

Who would vote for Fillon in first turn, and vote for Lepen in second turn in a Fillon-Lepen 2nd turn? Same for people voting Macron in 1st turn and Lepen in 2nd turn in a Macron-Lepen situation?

I can "understand" people voting Lepen in 1st turn as a "warning" (even if I still find it stupid) and changing their vote in 2nd turn because they don't really want FN in charge, but what is the logic to do this with Fillon or Macron ?


Is it, really? I'm surprised to see Jadot here, since he gave up a couple hours after Bayrou. Has the survey been conducted inbetween?


I wish (any reason will do), but I don't believe it.
Click to expand...

By exemple, a Le Pen supporter who would think she's sure to qualify for the second round but would know she can't win there. He would vote for Fillon in 1st round to avoid a lefty candidate in the second round which would then become president.
 
S

Simplet

Member
According to the Figaro it's pretty much over for Fillon, but people aren't sure who's going to take over.

Only Juppé has any kind of a chance IMO, Sarkozy would get slaughtered.

edit : But then again, only Sarkozy is shameless enough to even try!
 
D

DiipuSurotu

Banned
Simplet said:
According to the Figaro it's pretty much over for Fillon, but people aren't sure who's going to take over.

Only Juppé has any kind of a chance IMO, Sarkozy would get slaughtered.

edit : But then again, only Sarkozy is shameless enough to even try!
Click to expand...

Imagine if he were to rally Le Pen...

#darkjoke
 
D

DiipuSurotu

Banned
Screenshot from the conference:

Mmn9KWX.jpg


Oops wrong channel
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Doesn't sound like he will change anything, he's just whining that everybody's unfair to him.
 
O

oti

Banned
En Marche indeed.
Let's just hope Macron can survive whatever propaganda Russia has in store for him.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
CrankyKong said:
What is happening?
Click to expand...

Fillon got a convocation from the judges this morning to be indicted on March 15th, which is a few days before all candidates for the elections are officialized. And Fillon always said he would leave the race if he were indicted.
So a few hours later he does this press conference saying that the justice is targeting him specifically, that things are going too fast to be legit, and that everything is unfair to the electoral process ; and that as a consequence he is still running and asks voters to "do the right choice"

In theory if he's indicted before the elections but still becomes president, he will benefit from immunity for the duration of the presidency and would only be tried after it ends.
 
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