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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses
- Thread starter Holden
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Where have you seen "nostalgia towards Soviet Union" ?
What is your source on "Russia" financing Mélenchon's campaign ?
The smear campaign against Mélenchon will never stop. Alternative facts and insults are flying from everywhere but people like to focus on Fillon's alternative facts while the topic has plenty of them on Mélenchon.
It's funny to see that it is always the same idea behind ("you're the candidate of the dicatatorships and therefore want to have a dictatorship in your country")...but NGOs that stand for human rights and liberties say that Mélenchon has the best plaform on these topics... (not even talking about the 6th Republic) Same happened with Podemos in Spain, conservative circles import and export their rhetorics to prevent any radical progressist ideas to emerge by trying to put the fear of foreign plots (and the media all go for it, see what happened with the ALBA controversy)
Not that I disagree with you, but we can't deny that when asked on these subjects Melenchon is either not very clear or his answers aren't very pleasant.
It's also written in his program.
Systolique
Member
Mélenchon-loving-Russia is just coming from people reading too much Le Figaro, get real, the "Poutin financing Mélenchon" one isn't even worth mentioning.
I've stopped coming here after quite a few posters tried to post nonsense they claimed as truth when it actually was coming from their friends, family, or quite often their own simple view & thoughts on the world.
Also what a blatant piece of timeless absolute trash Le Figaro has proven to be again, I would have never imagined siding with Dupont-Aignan either but that's Serge Dassault for you alright
I've stopped coming here after quite a few posters tried to post nonsense they claimed as truth when it actually was coming from their friends, family, or quite often their own simple view & thoughts on the world.
Also what a blatant piece of timeless absolute trash Le Figaro has proven to be again, I would have never imagined siding with Dupont-Aignan either but that's Serge Dassault for you alright
Cabaratier
Neo Member
So you suggest that this is nonsense coming from the friends, family, or the simple mind of the former executive editor and managing editor of Le Monde?
"Which brings us back to Putin: a hero of Le Pen's Front National and a constant focus of Merkel's concerns over the future of the continent. Mélenchon has no particular liking for Putin's autocracy (although in 2015 he preferred to criticise Boris Nemtsov, an opposition figure assassinated that year in Moscow, rather than blame Putin for anything). But what is most striking about the far-left leader is how he's systematically refrained from ascribing any responsibility to Russia over the war in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, not to mention the killing fields of Syria. Only the west is ever held guilty for anything. This hasn't changed, even after chemical weapons were used this month and Russia vetoed a UN-sponsored investigation into the crime.
Mélenchon's rallying cry of ”peace" on Earth sounds laudable, but his success would have severe consequences for Europe. Pulling France out of Nato and out of EU treaties, which he wants, would unravel Europe's architecture. It would mean a leap into the unknown, not unlike that advocated by Le Pen. His radical economic policies would kill any hope of reforming eurozone governance. Meanwhile, his vision of international relations – in which Russia's revisionism over European borders and the Syrian dictator's mass killing of his own citizens hardly get a mention, whereas western democracies are constantly critiqued – smacks of moral confusion, and much worse.
(...) He's also on record accusing some foreign workers of ”stealing their bread" from French workers. There is much more of Italy's firebrand populist Beppe Grillo about him than Spain's Podemos."
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...enchon-germany-putin-french-presidential-race
It wasn't an accusation, maybe I wrongly formulated. It was just an example of trying to justify the appeal of Russia for a left wing leader. I'm sorry if it was perceived as an accusation.
So, what do you think about Melenchon's attitude towards Putin?
How about something published in Liberation?
http://www.liberation.fr/debats/201...chon-et-la-russie-ce-qui-nous-derange_1563817
Or what do you think the attitude of Melenchon toward Russia is then?
I see this complain from his supporters here that he is unfairly criticised and yet you and others just come here and throw accusations and disappear once a question that is not easy to answer pops up. How about making it a dialogue instead of a drive-by? Like with Russia, I would love to here what do you think his position towards Russia is?
Edit: and just to avoid playing this game once again, his program clearly states that he wants to get France out of NATO and build an alter-globalist alliance with BRICS (Brazil - Russia - India - China - South Africa)
https://avenirencommun.fr/app/uploads/2017/04/170404_programmeCourt_final.pdf
Systolique
Member
Oh I was clearly refering to drive-by posts too, I wouldn't mind discussing this topic if it hasn't already been discussed a thousand times and answered by Mélenchon during debates, interviews and probably meetings.
I'm not even voting for the guy, but simplifying his stance about the world with quick phrases such as "he loves russia", "Putin gives him money" or "he's nostalgic about russia" is nonsense and brings the discussion down to the abyss.
If I want to read quick and mindless comments I go and browse facebook, not GAF
Hashmal_Bringer_of_Order
Member
Quotes like "he loves russia", "Putin gives him money" or "he's nostalgic about russia" may all be false, but in my mind, there is literally no difference, morally or politically, between those and a platform and worldview that capitulates to, exuses or ignores the injustices and diametrically opposed ambitions of the Russian government at the expense of the EU nations.
Systolique
Member
Oh I'm sorry, did I miss the part where we - as France - did anything to not ignore Russia's actions outside of their country?
If that's the way you see things then everybody ignores and "excuses" (?) Russia, not Mélenchon, no one is excusing what Russia does in Crimea except Le Pen.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
She likely will get in the second turn but she doesn't have a lot of chance to win that.
The scenario where she has the most chance of winning is if François Fillon (hard right) gets to the second turn which is while possible unlikely.
But the first four candidates are so close that it's hard to predict which way it'll swing.
Systolique
Member
The last pages are a discussion about this with polls if you want a better read, résumé :
she has moderate chances to win the first round (where the best 2 candidates move on), she has very low chances to win against any candidates in the second round where she gets beaten largely by everybody except Fillon.
Basically, the worst case scenario is Le Pen - Fillon, where a huge portion of left wing voters might not want to vote for either one.
But she isn't even certain to pass the first round, so don't be afraid, at least not yet.
About as much as Trump had.
Factually false.
Frankfurter
Member
Realistically next to zero, she might lead in the first round but in the second it will be everyone against her and she'll end up between 30-45%
Which in itself is already worrying enough considering 15 years ago the FN was at 18% in a similar situation.
Her only (slim) chance is a 2nd round against Fillon where some shit happen before the vote that makes Fillon more despicable than he already is.
The 2nd round Fillon VS Le Pen also seems to be unlikely.
Systolique
Member
Absolutely false.
Trump was an unknown name in the politic scene using new communication techniques, he was a clear loser to Hillary and gained ground as time went by until election day.
Marine Le Pen is a known name and known candidate not bringing anything new to french people/media, she always had a strong base and was leading polls since the start (not counting Fillon's demise) and is gradually losing ground lately.
Marine Le Pen and Trump had no chance to win popular vote, which he didn't, and she will not.
Luckily France decides its president using popular vote.
The only slight chance she has winning is fighting Fillon, but even then it's not a clear shot.
Macron is really decent on everything besides economics.
Right, France doesn't have a quirky electoral college that can let minority candidates slip through, and the polling is much clearer that she loses by double digits in any plausible runoff scenario, whereas Trump was within the margin of error.
The real threat is who ends up in the runoff with her, because you could still end up with people pretty hard-right and/or anti-EU in there.
Someone recently wrote an article on medium using some data analysis tool called the french election tracker that tracks which candidate is generating the most news traffic and came to the conclusion using recent data from the tracker that fillon and macron are in a strong position to win the first round while Melenchon has a chance of getting into the second round.
https://medium.com/echobox/fillon-macron-big-data-6ba65cb67b21
He also says in another article that it is unlikely at this point that le pen will secure on the two spots for the runoff on May 7th.
https://medium.com/echobox/marine-l...ench-president-big-data-suggests-8ab8e0dc61fb
https://medium.com/echobox/fillon-macron-big-data-6ba65cb67b21
He also says in another article that it is unlikely at this point that le pen will secure on the two spots for the runoff on May 7th.
https://medium.com/echobox/marine-l...ench-president-big-data-suggests-8ab8e0dc61fb
Cabaratier
Neo Member
While this is a fair point, there are EU sanctions in place against Russia, which have had severe effects on the Russian economy (although it hasn't changed anything as far as I know). The question then is if Melenchon has mentioned whether he wants to keep the sanctions (like Hamon and Macron? have), or if he wants to lift them, like Le Pen and Fillon.
Edit- I just saw your point on how Melenchon has discussed it many times before. I don't speak French well enough to read French sources, and I can't find English sources as easily as with the other candidates. So please, explain what his position is.
Lassalle seems to be the best buddy you never knew you wanted to have.
For the lulz Lassale.
On a more serious note reading their program that would be Cheminade.
Not Asselineau. His main campaign point is "Frexit 2017", so yeah.
Palette Swap
Member
Yeah, Lassalle. When I see people's reactions to him, I feel like the country just discovered my father in law.
Then again, my father in law is awesome but I wouldn't give him the nuclear codes.
Then again, my father in law is awesome but I wouldn't give him the nuclear codes.
I'm more worried about Mélenchon than Le Pen at this point. Le Pen is objectively worse, and I would vote for Mélenchon if it were him against her (the absolute worst scenario), but I'm more worried because he actually has a decent chance to win the whole thing. There are a lot of insoumis among my Facebook friends, and the anti-Macron rhetoric and propaganda has been flowing freely the past week. I know that that's just my bubble, but the polls (and especially the trend in the polls) are not reassuring. I'm getting flashbacks to Fillon and Hamon's rise in the polls in the final days of their respective primaries.
I can easily see Hamon losing half his voters, and that being the difference. Hamon
Does Poutou need to die? Fine then, Lassalle.
I can easily see Hamon losing half his voters, and that being the difference. Hamon
Does Poutou need to die? Fine then, Lassalle.
I'm more worried about Mélenchon than Le Pen at this point. Le Pen is objectively worse, and I would vote for Mélenchon if it were him against her (the absolute worst scenario), but I'm more worried because he actually has a decent chance to win the whole thing. There are a lot of insoumis among my Facebook friends, and the anti-Macron rhetoric and propaganda has been flowing freely the past week. I know that that's just my bubble, but the polls (and especially the trend in the polls) are not reassuring. I'm getting flashbacks to Fillon and Hamon's rise in the polls in the final days of their respective primaries.
I can easily see Hamon losing half his voters, and that being the difference. Hamon
Does Poutou need to die? Fine then, Lassalle.
Nah I think people will still vote for hamon to make sure he gets past 5 percent.I think he will end up around 6 to 8 percent on sunday.
Edit: Does anyone know what happens if for example Fillon and Le Pen or Melenchon and Le Pen end up tied in second place in terms of votes. Who would face macron in this case?
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
I will certainly vote for Hamon, but the pressure from the pro-Melenchon side is really intense. Not mentioning the general left for the "useful vote". I think they do have a point, but Melenchon is such a douchebag and his comment about Syria and Russia make it impossible for me to vote for him. His stance on Europe are really worrying as well, but i agree that Hamon is a bit naive and you need to be a little offensive to get some change.
That would be impossible, there's no way they'd get exactly the same number.
I only keep alive the alcoholic and the crackpots
Asselineau can suck a fat one
Lassalle seems nice but he's friend with Assad so that's worrying
So... Cheminade ? At least we'd get spaceships
dottme
Member
There's few issues in Guyane. So I'm not sure you can take a spaceships.
It is really funny seeing the insoumis trying to shame people into voting "utile". The same insoumis who would cry out a month ago that the "vote utile" was an insult to democracy.
This morning I've received a leaflet for Fillon in my mailbox, isn't this illegal? I mean at this point the only legal one should be the one sent with all the others on the official brown envelope no?
Also got one for Macron but that was way before they started delivering the official ones.
Also got one for Macron but that was way before they started delivering the official ones.
Alx
Member
I can't wait either... even if I know I'll just go to the station around the corner, vote and get back in less than 10 minutes, and then spend the whole day watching TV where journalists all say "here I am in front of the voting station in XYZ, and we won't have anything interesting to say until tonight !".
Anyway, had a chat with a close relative of mine. We never talk about politics, but of course the elections came into the conversation. I found it amusing that she didn't like any candidate but chose Mélenchon mostly "because he is older, so probably wiser... Macron looks like a baby !". For all his anti-system speech, he got her vote because he's been in the system for the longest time.
Anyway, had a chat with a close relative of mine. We never talk about politics, but of course the elections came into the conversation. I found it amusing that she didn't like any candidate but chose Mélenchon mostly "because he is older, so probably wiser... Macron looks like a baby !". For all his anti-system speech, he got her vote because he's been in the system for the longest time.
Golden_Pigeon
Banned
Exactly.
I feel that both have a share of responsibility in their unability to make a common left front though. Mélenchon more, impossible a guy like him would accept to rally behind Hamon. Hamon couldn't rally behind Mélenchon because he was elected by a different structure. Mélenchon political structure is only about him.
No sane candidate would agree to rally behind a dysfunctional political structure like the current PS though. It would be political suicide.
PotionBleue
Member
So are we doing bets for tomorrow's results? I guess I'm bad at this but let's try anyway:
25 % Le Pen
20 % Fillon
18 % Macron
14 % Hamon
13 % Mélenchon
I secretly hope there'll be another big failure from polls (either in figures or ranking among candidates) so that people's faith in them and their omnipresence go down.
25 % Le Pen
20 % Fillon
18 % Macron
14 % Hamon
13 % Mélenchon
I secretly hope there'll be another big failure from polls (either in figures or ranking among candidates) so that people's faith in them and their omnipresence go down.
I can't wait either... even if I know I'll just go to the station around the corner, vote and get back in less than 10 minutes, and then spend the whole day watching TV where journalists all say "here I am in front of the voting station in XYZ, and we won't have anything interesting to say until tonight !".
I feel you. I live in NZ so I'll vote 12 hours before polling stations even open in France, it's going to be a loooong day haha
Europe Ecologie Les Verts were happy to throw themself under the bus.
I hope you actually did not bet on this.
Alx
Member
I have the opposite secret hope actually, so that we could still talk about polls without hearing "but but Trump and Brexit !" every time. It's good to know that polls are flawed, but the excessive scepticism is borderline obscurantist at this point. A too convenient way of saying "the polls aren't in my favour but that's because polls are shit anyway".
Congratulations for being so much smarter than the rest of us mere mortals drawing conclusions from statistical data I guess.
Interesting to see who you chose as your top 2 in your secret little fantasy.
So are we doing bets for tomorrow's results? I guess I'm bad at this but let's try anyway:
25 % Le Pen
20 % Fillon
18 % Macron
14 % Hamon
13 % Mélenchon
I secretly hope there'll be another big failure from polls (either in figures or ranking among candidates) so that people's faith in them and their omnipresence go down.
It's funny how you have chosen your top two to match your dream scenario (for your favourite) in the second round based on the same polls you're arguing about.
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