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|OT| French Presidential election - 2012 edition

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Magni

Member
I'm happy with the fact that the left will get back in power again (hopefully) in France and the rest of Europe. The post-crisis victories of conservatives all around Europe didn't help the economy at all.

I heard from reputable sources that the French equivalent of the FBI has Hollande winning (and Sarkozy knows this), and they've yet to be wrong in the Vth Republic, so Hollande will probably win unless he fucks up majorly this month (very possible, knowing the French left). I wouldn't be too pleased with this but at this point I don't care so much. I'd just be interested to see Bayrou win to see how much it would shake up the current system.
 
I heard from reputable sources that the French equivalent of the FBI has Hollande winning (and Sarkozy knows this), and they've yet to be wrong in the Vth Republic, so Hollande will probably win unless he fucks up majorly this month (very possible, knowing the French left). I wouldn't be too pleased with this but at this point I don't care so much. I'd just be interested to see Bayrou win to see how much it would shake up the current system.
What ?

How can you have a federal police in a country where there aren't any states ? What are you talking about ? IGS ? DST ?

And then again, on what basis do they say this ? Popularity poll ? Everyone knows them.
 

Magni

Member
What ?

How can you have a federal police in a country where there aren't any states ? What are you talking about ? IGS ? DST ?

And then again, on what basis do they say this ? Popularity poll ? Everyone knows them.

You're right, FBI wouldn't be the right analogous agency. I meant the Renseignements Généraux (edit: DCRI would be their name since 2008 after a quick wiki), they have inside numbers that INSEE doesn't have or publish.

They've never been wrong, so that doesn't bode well for the others, but there's always a first to everything, right?
 
I heard from reputable sources that the French equivalent of the FBI has Hollande winning (and Sarkozy knows this), and they've yet to be wrong in the Vth Republic, so Hollande will probably win unless he fucks up majorly this month (very possible, knowing the French left). I wouldn't be too pleased with this but at this point I don't care so much. I'd just be interested to see Bayrou win to see how much it would shake up the current system.
I don't think Bayrou is even capable of beating Mélenchon. Also, even though he seems like a pretty cool dude, is a huge supporter of the European Union/federalism, so he can go
love himself tenderly
if he wants my vote.
 

Magni

Member
I don't think Bayrou is even capable of beating Mélenchon. Also, even though he seems like a pretty cool dude, is a huge supporter of the European Union/federalism, so he can go
love himself tenderly
if he wants my vote.

You're not a fan of a future "United States of Europe" ? I thought I liked you Computer.. :(
 
Sarkozy says Schengen needs to be revised, or else France will bail out.



There are no words.
He just doesn't give a fuck anymore, might as well end his career trolling everyone.

Also, Hollande wants to remove the word 'race' from the Constitution. Who gives a shit? Damn, what a boring campaign.
 

G.O.O.

Member
I'm sure Merkel will love this.

But yeah, he's over it. The UMP hyped the Villepinte meeting like it would be the rebirth of his campaign, and he didn't say anything about his agenda. The press will slay him.
 
Colonel Gaddafi 'gave French President Nicolas Sarkozy £42MILLION to fund his 2007 election campaign'
By PETER ALLEN and NABILA RAMDANI
PUBLISHED: 15:06 GMT, 12 March 2012 | UPDATED: 15:46 GMT, 12 March 2012
Comments (88)
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Nicolas Sarkozy received up to £42million from Colonel Gaddafi to fund his election as French president, it was sensationally claimed today.
Extraordinary evidence made public in Paris is said to prove that the two former close allies had an illegal financial arrangement which propelled Mr Sarkozy to power in 2007.
A governmental briefing note published by Mediapart, the hugely respected investigative website, points to numerous visits to Libya by Mr Sarkozy and his colleagues which were aimed at securing funding.


Close: Extraordinary evidence made public in Paris is said to prove that the two former close allies had an illegal financial arrangement which propelled Mr Sarkozy to power in 2007
One, which is referred to in the note as having taken place on October 6, 2005, led to 'campaign finance to NS (Nicolas Sarkozy)' being 'totally solved'.
At the time Mr Sarkozy was an ambitious Interior Minister who was raising money for his presidential election campaign, even though taking cash from a notorious tyrant would have broken political financing laws.
Mediapart claims that €50million referred to in the note was laundered through bank accounts in Panama and Switzerland.

The Swiss account was opened in the name of the sister of Jean-Francois Cope, the leader of Mr Sarkozy's ruling UMP party, and the President's right-hand-man.
The money was then distributed through an arms dealer called Ziad Takieddine, who was used to acting as a middle man between Arab despots and French politicians.
The revelations follow Gaddafi's son and former heir, Saif-Al Islam Gaddafi, last year stating unambiguously that Libya had financed Mr Sarkozy’s election.

Saif-Al Islam, who is now being held in Libya following the toppling of his father’s regime, said: 'Sarkozy must first give back the money he took from Libya to finance his electoral campaign. We funded it. We have all the details and are ready to reveal everything.
'The first thing we want this clown to do is to give the money back to the Libyan people. He was given the assistance so he could help them, but he has disappointed us. Give us back our money.'

Revelations: Gaddafi's son Saif-Al Islam said last year that Libya had financed Mr Sarkozy's election but did not say what the figure was
Eyebrows were first raised when Colonel Gaddafi was honoured with a state visit to Paris in late 2007. He was referred to as the 'Brother Leader' by the French, and allowed to pitch his trademark tent next to the Elysee Palace.
Now the incriminating evidence has finally emerged through a thorough investigation into Ziad Takieddine's activities. It is Mr Takieddine's doctor, Didier Grosskopf, who has told investigating judges in Paris that he went on many of the trips to Libya and witnessed negotiations about party funding.
They also involved Brice Hortefeux, one of Mr Sarkozy's closes government allies, who has confirmed to Medipart that the meetings took place, but would not comment further, beyond denying any wrongdoing.
The allegedly incriminating note, which is in the hands of the French police as well as examining judge Renaud Van Ruymbeke, was leaked to Mediapart along with other documents.
These includes at least three letters sent from Mr Sarkozy and his colleagues to the Libyan leader in 2005 alone, as well as details of 'one-on-one negotiations' between Mr Sarkozy and Colonel Gaddafi.
Another witnesses who has given evidence in the growing scandal is British woman Nicola Johnson, who has been involved in an acrimonious divorce from Mr Takieddine, her husband of 30 years.
She alleged that Mr Horfefeux visited their luxurious Paris home in 2005 to pick up a large cash payment from Mr Takieddine. As France's head of state, Mr Sarkozy cannot be prosecuted while in office, but looks likely to lose the presidential election in May to his Socialist rival, Francois Hollande.
This would pave the way for a full investigation into Mr Sarkozy's party funding activities.
Mr Sarkozy famously turned on his friend, Colonel Gaddafi, at the beginning of the Arab Spring. French jets were the first to attack Gaddafi’s tanks in a brutal military campaign which ended with the Libyan leader being murdered. The Elysee Palace would not comment on today’s revelations.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...und-2007-election-campaign.html#ixzz1oviDDsw8
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...zy-42MILLION-fund-2007-election-campaign.html

How reliable is Mediapart?
 
Sarkozy just said he wishes for Marine Le Pen to have her 500 signatures. The guy really has no word and no honor. I guess that's the very definition of a politician, but still... I'm speechless. If he does get re-elected or even has a good score, then les Français sont des veaux indeed.

He also denied having his 2007 campaign financed by Gaddafi.
 
Sarkozy takes first round French election lead - poll

PARIS (Reuters) - President Nicolas Sarkozy leads his Socialist challenger Francois Hollande for the first time in an opinion poll on Tuesday for round one of France's presidential election, but is still shown losing in the second round.

The Ifop/Fiducial poll put support for Sarkozy at 28.5 percent in the first round on April 22, up from 27 percent at the end of February. Support for Hollande slipped to 27 percent, from 28.5 percent, the poll showed.

Hollande would still triumph in the May 22 runoff between the two top candidates with 54.5 percent of the vote to Sarkozy's 45.5 percent, although the lead has narrowed with Hollande losing two percentage points and Sarkozy gaining two.

The election is becoming a clear two-horse race between Sarkozy, who promises tighter immigration controls, structural economic reforms and policy referendums, and Hollande, who is running on a tax-and-spend programme while also promising to cut the budget deficit.

The poll for various French media was carried out on Sunday and Monday after Sarkozy told his biggest rally yet that he would erect barriers to trade and immigration unless the European Union takes tougher stands.

Seeking to breathe new life into his campaign, Sarkozy said that Europe should have a law, modelled on the Buy American Act, requiring governments to buy European-made products.

He also threatened to pull France out of the European Union's Schengen open-borders zone unless progress is made over the year on controlling immigration flows.

Hollande said Sarkozy's move was a sign the incumbent was running out of inspiration and insisted he was focused on winning over voters and not watching every poll.

"I am not going to let myself be impressed by a poll," Hollande said on France 3 TV, adding that nothing was certain yet.

On Monday Sarkozy sought to shed an image as a friend of the rich, promising a new tax on people who move abroad to avoid France's high tax on the wealthy.

Sarkozy is seeking a second term despite being one of the least popular presidents in modern France, with many voters frustrated with his poor economic record and tired of his showy style.

Separately, an Opinionway survey showed Sarkozy's approval rating slipped one point to 31 percent while his disapproval rating dropped two points to 62 percent.

It found that 50 percent of respondents thought Hollande was running the stronger campaign and 38 percent rated firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon's most highly. Only 27 percent thought Sarkozy's campaign was best.

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Michael Roddy)

Reuters
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/in...French_election_lead_-_poll.html?cid=32280940

Exclusive: France's Le Pen clears hurdle to stand in election

PARIS (Reuters) - French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has obtained the backing of 500 elected officials required to be a candidate in the April-May presidential election, she told Reuters on Tuesday, clearing a hurdle days before Friday's filing deadline.
"I have my 500 signatures and therefore I will be a candidate in the presidential election," Le Pen said.


A failure by Le Pen to gather the requisite support by March 16 could have rocked the election race with far-right voters likely to have switched support to conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is behind Socialist Francois Hollande in most opinion polls.
Le Pen - a charismatic speaker who has won a strong following since she took over the National Front leadership from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen in January 2011 - is running third in polls but with too low a score to seriously threaten Hollande or Sarkozy's chances of facing each other in a May 6 runoff.
The former lawyer has shifted from her party's traditional anti-immigration focus and is campaigning for France to exit the euro and erect protectionist barriers. She will hold a news conference later on Tuesday to announce that she is formally in the race.
Sarkozy leads Hollande for the first time in an opinion poll on Tuesday for round one of the election, but is still shown losing in the second round. The Ifop/Fiducial poll put support for Sarkozy at 28.5 percent in the first round on April 22, up from 27 percent at the end of February. Support for Hollande slipped to 27 percent, from 28.5 percent, the poll showed.
Other recent polls put Hollande's support at 28-29 percent and Sarkozy at 27-28 percent for the first round, with Le Pen at around 16 percent, having lost several points in recent weeks. Centrist Francois Bayrou ranks fourth with 12 percent.
In January, Le Pen was just a couple of percentage points behind Sarkozy in polls, reviving memories of the 2002 election when her father made it into a second-round presidential vote against Jacques Chirac. That year, Jean-Marie Le Pen also obtained his 500th signature just before the deadline.
(Reporting by Gerard Bon; Writing by Catherine Bremer; Editing by Michael Roddy)
http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/ex...n-clears-hurdle-stand-election-061703290.html
 

Blimblim

The Inside Track
You're right, FBI wouldn't be the right analogous agency. I meant the Renseignements Généraux (edit: DCRI would be their name since 2008 after a quick wiki), they have inside numbers that INSEE doesn't have or publish.

They've never been wrong, so that doesn't bode well for the others, but there's always a first to everything, right?

My father (now retired) was a Commissaire at the RG for most of his career. I can vouch for the fact that they were never wrong in their polls. It was fun having the election results (and usually *much* closer to the real results than the first officially announced ones) usually at least an hour before the official time.
 

keuja

Member
So Hollande will win...
Not sure if happy (because Sarkozy will finally be kicked out), sad (because I don't think the PS will help improving the economy or the general state of the country), or just don't give a fuck (because I am completely jaded about politics and also partially because I don't live there anymore but, hey it's still my country after all).
 

G.O.O.

Member
Think I'm gonna go with Bayrou in the first round, no point in having more than two parties if we always end up voting PS/UMP.
I'll advertise my link once again but it might interest you : http://www.bigblogger.org/bigblogger/2012/03/11/des-ambiguites-du-centrisme/

It's not meant to persuade you to vote for a party or another but it's an interesting point on Bayrou & the UMPS system (even if the guy says he'll vote for Hollande).

EDIT :

The big news for me is that Ferrari dared to ask him...
Bad idea, apparently.

http://www.lepoint.fr/chroniqueurs-...-fache-sa-direction-13-03-2012-1440697_52.php

On ne peut pas dire que Laurence Ferrari ait reçu les félicitations de ses patrons ni que Nicolas Sarkozy ait apprécié d'être questionné sur le financement de sa campagne en 2007. À la sortie du plateau, Nonce Paolini, le P-DG de TF1, lui a sauté sur le râble, la sermonnant sur sa question outrageante sur la manière dont Kadhafi aurait financé le candidat de l'UMP. La journaliste avait, en effet, relayé les accusations portées par le site Mediapart. "Eh bien, dites-moi, s'il l'avait financée, je n'aurais pas été très reconnaissant", répond d'abord Nicolas Sarkozy en tentant la sortie par la boutade.
 
What a friend of a friend said:

Saw Sarkozy yesterday on 'Des paroles et des actes', on France 2.
Sarkozy was good, very good, it's incredible to see how he managed to answer the audience and journalists's questions.
Either he knows his dossiers or he knew the questions in advance. Either way, outstanding performance, he really 'got his shirt wet' (figuratively and literally).
As for the ideas, he was fantastic: he hijacked everyone else's ideas and exposed them as his own, and defended those ideas better than the other candidates.
Modifying European treaties was the FN's idea. Taxing French people living abroad was Mélenchon's. Industrial policy and favouring French-made products was Bayrou's.
I've never seen such a political beast!
He trailed a lot in the polls but now, in my opinion, he's the favorite and his adversaries will have a lot to do in order to beat him.

Also:

BJML9.jpg
 
Jacques Cheminade might vote for Hollande in the second round.

Cheminade votera éventuellement pour Hollande au 2e tour

Jacques Cheminade, candidat de "Solidarité et Progrès" à l'élection présidentielle, a assuré mardi qu'il ne voterait au deuxième tour ni pour Marine Le Pen, ni pour Nicolas Sarkozy ni pour François Bayrou, mais éventuellement pour François Hollande en fonction de la façon dont "il se comporte".

Interrogé par Radio Classique-Public Sénat, ce candidat s'est dit "gaulliste parce que Nicolas Sarkozy ne l'est pas". "Je suis de gauche parce que François Hollande ne l'est pas toujours" a-t-il ajouté. Au second tour, pour qui votera-t-il ? "Certainement pas pour Marine Le Pen, certainement pas pour Nicolas Sarkozy et certainement pas pour François Bayrou. Donc tirez-en les conséquences". François Hollande ? "On verra comment il se comporte. S'il continue à faire preuve d'une certaine faiblesse, il y a aussi le vote blanc qui est possible" a-t-il fait remarquer.
http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/politique...llement-pour-hollande-au-2e-tour-7056145.html
 
The Wall Street Journal doesn't like Sarkozy very much:

Nicolas Le Pen

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has ramped up the anti-immigrant rhetoric in recent days, telling a TV audience last week that France has "too many foreigners" and offering to cut the number of immigrants admitted to France by half should he be re-elected to a second term. Then on Sunday, before a monster rally in a stadium near Paris, he threatened to suspend France's participation in Schengen, Europe's internal borderless-travel zone, unless it is reformed to better keep out the great unwashed.

Even in France, it rarely gets more cynical than this. The attacks on immigration are an attempt to woo supporters of Marine Le Pen's xenophobic National Front ahead of the first-round poll on April 22. Mr. Sarkozy trails his Socialist rival, Francois Hollande, 29% to 27%, according to a recent poll for Paris Match magazine. Ms. Le Pen comes in third at 17%. Little wonder that's where the Sarkozy camp is now mining for votes.

Still, the immigration talk is mainly a cover for French anxiety over their increasingly rickety welfare state. Mr. Hollande's answer for keeping the system afloat is a 75% top marginal income-tax rate, which may do something for emigration but won't do anything to improve France's budgetary health. Mr. Sarkozy, by contrast, argues that "at a time of economic crisis, if Europe doesn't control who can enter its borders, it won't be able to finance its welfare state any longer."

This is an ugly thought, not only for the ugly sentiments on which it plays but also as a textbook example of economic illiteracy. Not least among the threats to France's welfare state is an aging (and increasingly long-lived) population and a birth rate that—while the highest in Europe—is still below the replacement rate. Barring fundamental cultural changes, only immigration can maintain an active work force large enough to pay for the growing rolls of pensioners and dependents.

The real task for the French government is to ensure that those immigrants are assimilating properly, and to create economic conditions in which they can thrive with the rest of France. Mr. Sarkozy no doubt understands that. But we wonder if Mr. Sarkozy also understands that transparent displays of cynicism like this one have brought him to his current political predicament.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...2360.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hpp_sections_opinion#
 

G.O.O.

Member
This is an ugly thought, not only for the ugly sentiments on which it plays but also as a textbook example of economic illiteracy. Not least among the threats to France's welfare state is an aging (and increasingly long-lived) population and a birth rate that—while the highest in Europe—is still below the replacement rate. Barring fundamental cultural changes, only immigration can maintain an active work force large enough to pay for the growing rolls of pensioners and dependents.
I don't understand why this still has to be a confidential truth during this campaign.
 
Debate:

Fortress Europe

Candidate for re-election Nicolas Sarkozy argues for tightening Europe's borders to outside immigrants and companies. Mere political grandstanding or is the French president undermining the EU’s common groundrules?

Catherine De WENDEN. Research Director, CERI Sciences Po Paris;
Yves PASCOUAU. Senior Fellow, European Policy Center (from Brussels);
Christian STOFFAES. President, French-German Council of Economic Analysis;
Yves BERTONCINI. Secretary General, Notre Europe.
Part 1: http://www.france24.com/en/20120312-debate-Fortress-Europe
Part 2: http://www.france24.com/en/20120312-debate-Fortress-Europe-part2
 

Magni

Member
New poll contradicts previous polls that called Sarkozy winner in the first round:

Un nouveau sondage dément Nicolas Sarkozy en tête au 1er tour

Un nouveau sondage TNS-Sofres pour i-Télé vient démentir un éventuel "croisement des courbes" entre Nicolas Sarkozy et François Hollande, mardi 13 mars.
Plus tôt dans la journée, un sondage Ifop Fiducial pour Europe 1, "Paris-Match" et Public Sénat donnait, pour la première fois, Nicolas Sarkozy (28,5%) au-dessus de François Hollande (27%) au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle.
Selon le sondage de TNS-Sofres, François Hollande est toujours à un haut niveau au premier tour (30%, stable), Nicolas Sarkozy, lui, chute de deux points à 26%.
Au second tour, le candidat socialiste l'emporte même largement (58 %, +1) sur le président-candidat (42%, -1).


tl;dr: Hollande wins first round with 30% of the votes (Sarkozy second with 26%). Hollande easily wins the second round with 58% of the votes (Sarkozy losing with 42%)
 

G.O.O.

Member
Former president Jacques Chirac would vote for Hollande, says "le canard enchaîné". Same for his daughter, while his wife supports Sarkozy.

Jacques Chirac votera pour François Hollande, selon "Le Canard Enchaîné"


Alors que Bernadette Chirac affiche son soutien à Nicolas Sarkozy, comme elle l'a fait dimanche 11 mars au meeting de Villepinte (Seine-Saint-Denis), Jacques Chirac, lui, serait plutôt un partisan de François Hollande.

Dans son édition du mercredi 14 mars, Le Canard Enchaîné affirme que l'ancien président de la République, "quand il est en forme et reçoit des visiteurs, confie toujours ses sympathies pour le président socialiste du conseil général de la Corrèze et son souhait de le voir l'emporter".

En juin 2011 déjà, lors d'une rencontre avec M. Hollande au musée de Sarran (en Corrèze), M. Chirac avait affirmé : "Je voterai François Hollande". Des propos qualifiés de "blague" par sa femme dimanche, cette dernière assurant sur RTL que M. Chirac "soutient bien sûr Nicolas Sarkozy".

Le Canard Enchaîné va plus loin en affirmant qu'au nombre des soutiens de M. Hollande dans la famille Chirac, il faut également compter la fille de l'ancien président, Claude, qui "fait de la retape pour Hollande en expliquant qu'il faut voter pour lui, 'dès le premier tour'". Ainsi que son ancien conjoint, Thierry Rey, qui s'est officiellement engagé dans la campagne socialiste.
http://www.lemonde.fr/election-pres...selon-le-canard-enchaine_1668872_1471069.html
 

Alx

Member
LOL apparently we have another fucking unknown candidate, François Amanrich.

With so many micro candidates getting their 500 signatures, I don't see how anybody can believe that it's hard for the Le Pen family to get theirs.
 
With so many micro candidates getting their 500 signatures, I don't see how anybody can believe that it's hard for the Le Pen family to get theirs.

The majority of mayors in France is halal or kosher, that's the only explanation.

Interesting idea of François Amanrich, but I can't see the theory being applied to real life.
 
The deadline for the 500 signatures ends today, in a little less than ten hours.

Dominique de Villepin announced that he was out, since he couldn't gather enough of them.

This signature rule needs to die.
 

Alx

Member
Dominique de Villepin announced that he was out, since he couldn't gather enough of them.

Just saw it this morning... I stand corrected then, if Villepin cannot get his signatures, then maybe it may be more difficult for some than others.
 

Mistouze

user-friendly man-cashews
Just saw it this morning... I stand corrected then, if Villepin cannot get his signatures, then maybe it may be more difficult for some than others.
You gotta note that Villepin never tried to get elected at ANYTHING. He really doesn't have an electoral base, no city to call his own and no real political formation. I'm not suprised and not sad for him really. START WORKING ON IT NOW FOR 2017 DOMINIQUE!
 
What would you replace it with?
Reasserting that the sponsorship is an administrative act, not political, and allowing officials to give signatures to an unlimited number of candidates.
You gotta note that Villepin never tried to get elected at ANYTHING. He really doesn't have an electoral base, no city to call his own and no real political formation.
He graduated from Sciences-po and ENA, before having a career as a diplomat. He's never been elected to anything but he does have a political formation.
 

G.O.O.

Member
You gotta note that Villepin never tried to get elected at ANYTHING. He really doesn't have an electoral base, no city to call his own and no real political formation. I'm not suprised and not sad for him really. START WORKING ON IT NOW FOR 2017 DOMINIQUE!
This.

He also had like 1% in the polls. It's not like his presence was needed for this election. If a clown like Cheminade could manage to have them, then it should be possible for him provided he learns from his mistakes and starts working early on his campaign.
 

Mistouze

user-friendly man-cashews
Reasserting that the sponsorship is an administrative act, not political, and allowing officials to give signatures to an unlimited number of candidates.

He graduated from Sciences-po and ENA, before having a career as a diplomat. He's never been elected to anything but he does have a political formation.
I meant that he doesn't have "une formation politique/un parti" behind him. Me love neogaf long time.
 
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