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[Sydle]

I actually agree with the fool in a way. The more consoles strive to perform and act like HTGPC (home theater gaming pc's) the more people will just buy HTGPCs. I almost skipped this generation because of that and probably will next generation.

Except Nintendo, I will always play Mario even if it's on a 5DWIISU in 10 years.

I would love for MS and Sony to adopt a universal platform approach like EA, Ubisoft, and others do today. Steam app, EA Access app, Xbox app, Playstation app, etc. Then we can just buy a HTGPC (with minimum specs) to play their games.

I will not miss having to own 3+ devices to put under my TV every generation just to play all the great games.

 

[sometimes i game]

Newspapers and physical copies of movies will never die either guys right? Consoles will die eventually, it is just a matter of when.

"What is this Spotify I keep hearing about trying to come to America?" said I before giving it $10 a month for the convenience.

 

[Arkhanor]

Pachter, please. You already had your 15 minutes of fame. Now, stop trying to be relevant.

 

[Kagoshima_Luke]

Newspapers and physical copies of movies will never die either guys right? Consoles will die eventually, it is just a matter of when.

Physical copies of movies died?

*looks at blu ray collection*

*looks at Amazon blu ray selection*

 

[Orayn]

EDIT: NVM, misunderstood your post.

 

[speculawyer]

You "phones can never do what my console can!" folks do know that your PS4 / Xbone has a mobile CPU inside it, right?

You miss the point though. Sure, my phone is much more powerful than previous console generations. And future phones may become better than a PS4. But how great will consoles & PCs be when phones catch up to a PS4?

 

[liquidtmd]

Technically you could perform a lot of a laptop functions on a phone processor - laptop sales have declined somewhat but theyll still be a demand for them for a couple of more decades. Ergonomics and form come into play. He sees the figures but underestimates the 'feel'.

Same with consoles. The market for them may contract and expand over the years but theyll be a demand for them. People can fit thousands of songs on a phone but they still buy stereo systems you jackass

 

[Aeriscloud]

He speaks, we laugh.

 

[CosmicQueso]

You miss the point though. Sure, my phone is much more powerful than previous console generations. And future phones may become better than a PS4. But how great will consoles & PCs be when phones catch up to a PS4?

What will it matter if so few companies can afford to develop for it due to rising costs and declining market that few to no games are released?

You think the current release drought is bad? Why would you buy a new box if only a handful of games total are released to take advantage of that hardware?

 

[Suzushiiro]

I think that the games we play on consoles are going to be fine. Consoles as we know them, however- dedicated gaming hardware sold at a loss by companies who make that money back not just by producing their own software but by charging other developers for the ability to make and print games that run on the hardware- are probably going to go away.

This isn't going to be because of streaming services, this is just going to be because demand for more powerful gaming hardware is slowing down due to the limiting factor in that space moving to production budget rather than hardware, meanwhile the power of cheap hardware is still increasing. VR taking off will delay it for a decade or so, but we're inevitably going to hit the point where sub-$100 hardware is "good enough" for any game anyone could afford to make. When any cheap box running Android can run the games you want to make it doesn't make sense to pay extra just to put your games on Microsoft or Sony's boxes.

This is why MS wanted the XBone to be an all-in-one entertainment device rather than just a games console- so when that happens they'd still have a place next to your TV. This is also why Sony is trying to become the Netflix/iTunes of video games via PSNow.

 

[v1oz]

Nonsense. Consoles are eternal and everlasting.

No they're not.

People said the same thing about dedicated VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray players. But they are all going the way of the Dinosaur.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

You miss the point though. Sure, my phone is much more powerful than previous console generations. And future phones may become better than a PS4. But how great will consoles & PCs be when phones catch up to a PS4?

Mobile tech refreshes annually.
Console tech refreshes twice a decade.
EDIT:
twice a decade at best mind you.

 

[ymmv]

This guy is an idiot. Consoles aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Well, personally I wonder if we'll ever see a PS5, Xbox 4 and Wii 3.

There's a very good chance the Xbox One will sell less than the 360 and the Wii U is tracking below the Gamecube. With game development getting so expensive that every game needs to be a million seller while the audience is shrinking, with gamers expecting either AAA productions or $1 indie games and almost nothing in between, the console games business doesn't look healthy at all. You can still make money, but it's coming from less and less games.

It's a market heading for self destruction IMO. MS should get the hell out, because it's got nothing to do with their core business, Nintendo is in a very tough spot with their console sales plummeting and their handheld business being made obsolete by smart phones. Only Sony might give a next gen console a try if the PS4 remains a market leader for the next four, five years.

 

[Ty4on]

Edit: ^^^^^^^ The PS4 will struggle to beat the 360 (without a Kinect boost) and the XB1 can only dream about those numbers.

Of course enthusiast gaming board doesn't believe it, but he's right.

Within the next 20 years, there will no longer be a need for a dedicated gaming console.

Think about it, we have 32% fewer releases on this gen so far than we had in the last gen. Development costs continue to rise and the market for those products is flat at best.

Pretty soon, if not already happening, any remaining incentive to try and put games on these platforms to take advantage of the hardware are declining significantly.

You all may not want to see it, but it's pretty clear what is happening.

The sales figures really show this. Handheld consoles are dead with the 3DS falling behind the PSP outside of Japan (where it might barely beat it) and the current generation looks to be caught by the two before it despite the strong launch.

If you look at the PS4 and XB1 alone compared to earlier consoles the platau after the launch is even more pronounced. Right now PS4 sales have looked like 360 sales and XB1 sales have looked like PS3 sales, but this time there is no PS2 ahead of both and certainly no Wii and DS to brighten the numbers.

Edit2:

Physical copies of movies died?

*looks at blu ray collection*

*looks at Amazon blu ray selection*

Vinyl is "still alive" (and growing!), but that doesn't mean the mainstream isn't into streaming music and ditto with Blu-ray and movie streaming.

 

[TheOMan]

Good news everyone, consoles are here to last.

LOL

I'm beginning to think that Pachasaurus is trolling GAF.

 

[Acti]

Even though I don't agree with is opinion, I have nothing against the guy. In fact I really like some of his opinions on GT. But yeah... Fuck predictions.

 

[Astro Racer]

People said the same thing about dedicated VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray players. But they are all going the way of the Dinosaur.

This bollocks statement always pisses me off.

So when blu-ray players are gone, what the fuck am I supposed to watch movies on? I can't stream at my location. So I'm fucked. Right?...... No. Because there will always be people like me who want a physical media.

Not to mention streaming quality is crap compared to physical media.

 

[speculawyer]

Mobile tech refreshes annually.
Console tech refreshes twice a decade.
EDIT:
twice a decade at best mind you.

Yes, you can get bigger screens, near field communication, better camera chips . . . but the CPU & GPU technology does not grow at annual rates.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Even though I don't agree with is opinion, I have nothing against the guy. In fact I really like some of his opinions on GT. But yeah... Fuck predictions.

I heard someone mentioned that "all games would be F2P in the future". It was like someone took molten hot lava, poured it into my eye sockets, and left it there to dry. That seems nice and all, but it's such a dry and uninteresting outlook towards the industry.

 

[Phrozenflame500]

I mean, your phone will be powerful enough to power any game in two more generations.

This seems super improbably to me. I mean, consoles are not just bigger but are also dedicated gaming platforms. I'd be surprised if the average consumer grade phone will have that kinda of graphical power.

 

[CosmicQueso]

This bollocks statement always pisses me off.

So when blu-ray players are gone, what the fuck am I supposed to watch movies on? I can't stream at my location. So I'm fucked. Right?...... No. Because there will always be people like me who want a physical media.

Not to mention streaming quality is crap compared to physical media.

Eventually for gaming yes, you will be, regardless of your desire for physical media. Not in 5 years maybe, but it's coming.

 

[Astro Racer]

Eventually for gaming yes, you will be, regardless of your desire for physical media. Not in 5 years maybe, but it's coming.

Then I weep for the future.

"Hey, honey. Lets watch a movie or play some games"

"Sorry, we can't. Someone has DDOS'd the servers again. We'll have to sit with our thumbs up our asses instead".

 

[Woo-Fu]

Consoles have already died, they're just lobotomized PCs at this point.

 

[tokkun]

Yes, you can get bigger screens, near field communication, better camera chips . . . but the CPU & GPU technology does not grow at annual rates.

It doesn't? Seems like mobile processor performance is still scaling very fast. Take the Snapdragon 805 vs 801 for example:

http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/qualcomm-snapdragon-805-performance,3887-6.html

40% faster than last year's GPU in a lot of these benchmarks.

 

[TetraGenesis]

Dear Michael Pachter

...What

Yours,
Franck

LOST IT at "Yours, Franck". Where is that silly sonnuva bitch anyway?

 

[zou]

You "phones can never do what my console can!" folks do know that your PS4 / Xbone has a mobile CPU inside it, right?

mobile as in laptop.

 

[SgtCobra]

Dear Michael Pachter

...What

Yours,
Franck

Okay this got me.

 

[Devilgunman]

No they're not.

People said the same thing about dedicated VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray players. But they are all going the way of the Dinosaur.

Dedicated Bluray player?? Has it ever been a thing? PS3 has been used as a Bluray player even until now.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Consoles have already died, they're just lobotomized PCs at this point.

That's such a generalization. Even when computers were first coming out they were numerous bits in large boxes of metal or plastic. Video games are the same way. They had to start with that computer structure. I can't believe we've all become this technology guru to the point where we need the creator's machine to enjoy the game. I think the saying that "once you learn more about something you enjoy, you start to enjoy it a lot less" is somewhat true or at least "how it's created".

We know the power of the PC, but we know the power of creativity with consoles. We're seeing it more and more on PCs because games are becoming expensive to make and we can't renew that love for the console if we own the hottest graphics card on the market.

 

[zou]

No they're not.

People said the same thing about dedicated VHS/DVD/Blu-Ray players. But they are all going the way of the Dinosaur.

Yeah, I call bs. People have been writing off Bluray right from the beginning, VHS was 30+ years ago so who the fuck cares. You're just making things up to help with your bs claim.

 

[orochi91]

He's not wrong.

This will be the last gen of traditional console hardware. I expect MS/Sony/Nintendo
to have PC distribution platfroms for their games, similar to Steam.

 

[JNA]

Good news everyone, consoles are here to last.

Win.

 

[antitrop]

First two posts of the thread deliver hard.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

mobile as in laptop.

Kabini is aimed at notebooks and Temash is aimed at Tablets. They both use the same Jaguar microarchitecture.
Its a pretty meaningless distinction.

 

[AlwaysPlaying]

 

[CosmicQueso]

I'll just leave post #2446 from this month's NPD thread here.

Depressingly realistic indeed.

Oh dang... a thought crossed my mind, are we (the hardcore gamers) a dying breed that won't be replaced?, kids now are growing up with them dang smart devices and seem to be ok with playing vapid hollow free (next to free) games. I fear for the future of the gaming market as we know it once we (the hardcore gamers) start pushing up daisies... oh well... i wouldn't possibly care about that in the afterlife now would i?.

Well, this isn't some new phenomenon. Do you know how everyone's Dad seems to have dated taste in music that no longer represents the mainstream? How 40 year olds of every generation think the new music that kids are listening to is "just noise?" How kids today read books like Twilight and Vampire Academy instead of Roald Dahl or Gertrude Warner? How kids today aren't interested in 2D animation films any more?

Yes, it is reasonable to assume that your taste in games will fall out fashion and eventually be replaced by stuff that you hate. That is not particular to you, or to gaming, though. Welcome to the wonderful world of "you're getting older."

 

[JNA]

I'm no expert on this stuff, but it doesn't seem like it. Charts?

 

[dead souls]

He's not wrong.

This will be the last gen of traditional console hardware. I expect MS/Sony/Nintendo
to have PC distribution platfroms for their games, similar to Steam.

I couldn't disagree with this more. Console hardware sales may decline, but they aren't going anywhere for years and years and years and years.

 

[Northeastmonk]

I'll just leave post #2446 from this month's NPD thread here.

Depressingly realistic indeed.

I want to be forever young.

 

[RedHotChimiChanga]

"iPhone 6 is as powerful as current gen consoles"

 

[phoeniks314]

So instead of buying a console for 400, i'm going to buy a high-end phone for 600 or wtf. A chromecast? But then i still need a good pc to stream from.

 

[Sydle]

Yeah, I call bs. People have been writing off Bluray right from the beginning, VHS was 30+ years ago so who the fuck cares. You're just making things up to help with your bs claim.

Sony Warns Demand For Blu-Ray Diminishing Faster Than Expected

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Dear Michael Pachter

...What

Yours,
Franck

Alt account?

He might be right

 

[Daviii]

Microsoft already knows that. That's why they stopped losing money on Xbox, created Chromecast, and try to maintain their 95% market share on mobile devices.

Well done Patcher.

 

[Indiedevs]

Im quite surprised some of you actually believe that streaming services like Onlive and Gaikai is the future of gaming, the one and only. If that comes true, im willing to give up everything that`s called gaming and find myself a new hobby.

But let`s play along. Let`s imagine this actually happened in a galaxy far far away, where would that leave PC? Will I still be able to play my games on local hardware, like gaming should be? Or will PC gaming die because streaming has taken over?

Some of you... Streaming? Really?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Im quite surprised some of you actually believe that streaming services like Onlive and Gaikai is the future of gaming, the one and only. If that comes true, im willing to give up everything that`s called gaming and find myself a new hobby.

But let`s play along. Let`s imagine this actually happened in a galaxy far far away, where would that leave PC? Will I still be able to play my games on local hardware, like gaming should be? Or will PC gaming die because streaming has taken over?

Some of you... Streaming? Really?

PC isn't going anywhere. We're talking about dedicated consoles.

Nintendo has one more crack at a console. Microsoft may already be setting themselves up for making the One the last console they make. Sony may indeed come out with a PS5, but release it to a shirking and aging market. It is a definite possibility.

This is the same kind of guffawing that was going on when people first talked about mobile killing off dedicated handhelds 5 or so years ago.

 

[oneils]

Lmaooo

http://www.neowin.net/news/analyst-michael-pachter-microsoft-will-win-next-gen-console-war

I don't really see anything wrong with this prediction. It was before MS talked about always online and drm. MS pretty much screwed up their launch with the awful messaging.

It was a bold prediction, but he made some basic assumptions (i.e., That MS wouldn't be a fuck up) and it didn't pan out.

 

[Duderz]

Again, I'm really not seeing where he is wrong.

Does anyone expect the Wii U to outsell the Wii? Of course not.

Does anyone expect the Xbox One to outsell the Xbox 360? Doubtful.

Does anyone expect the PS4 to outsell the PS3? Possibly. But 2/3 consoles that do not live up to their predecessors, and in one instance very sharply (the Wii U) shows we are in a serious contraction.

The Wii was an anomaly that will likely not be repeated. The PS2 will never be repeated. Consoles are pretty much dead in Japan, and it is only a matter of time before it catches up here. I doubt that this will be our last console cycle, but I'm sure things will be radically different by 2020.

 

[DevilFox]

Actually, I almost agree.. I don't think consoles will disappear, but their market will shrinks as tech goes on and new business models become possible.

Just my ignorant opinion, but as I see it, gaming consoles, PCs (HTCPs) and TVs themselves are all going in the same direction, trying to be more than what they are for a richer and wider experience and audience.
TVs now are Smart TVs with internet connection and a lot of streaming services to offer, USB I/O to play media from HDDs etc,
HTCPs (not preassembled shit, I mean custom HTCPs) want the place taken by gaming consoles fixing all the "negative sides" of desktop PCs, starting with size (micro and mini atx), compatibility issues (a lot harder to have now) and STEAM is there to make everything faster and easier.
Gaming consoles started from an advantageous position being part of the "gaming in the living room" culture but they had to offer more to keep the place under the TVs, with the same services we can find on TVs and PCs (Twitch, Youtube, things like that), paying attention to details like user friendly OSs, accounts system for more devices (well, not Nintendo..) and social craps because they have to look like devices that can offer more than simple gaming, they need to take the center position of the living room.
It's more or less what happened to portable consoles, when smartphones took a huge slice of consumers. It didn't happen because smartphones had better games, right?

Maybe they will all stay like this and to complete one another, but if they don't, it looks inevitable to me that one or more of this evolutions will fail as they can't suvive all together at the same time.
I don't think Sony and MS are spending so much over server infrastructure just for the present day, it's a long term investment. PSNow and MS's service could be the next big thing, with or without a physical console under the TV.

 

[zou]

Kabini is aimed at notebooks and Temash is aimed at Tablets. They both use the same Jaguar microarchitecture.
Its a pretty meaningless distinction.

"phones can never do what my console can!"

This is what you compared it to, phones. Bit of a difference between laptop and phone.