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[SneakyStephan]

Phones are literally a decade behind the current consoles in performance...
He's so full of shit

Also everyone is whining that hardware progress is stalling due to being at the limits of how small silicon transistors can be shrunk

add those together and somehow a 4watt phone is going to match a 160watt console in 2 years.

it'll be more than a decade before a phone can replace a current console, and by then people won't be satisfied with a current console under their tv

 

[Snuggles]

Yes, a device primarily dedicated to playing one form of media is sure to last forever in a world where everything on that front has become increasingly streamlined. I mean, I'm not the only one still using a walkman, right? Things won't change.

 

[Orayn]

I've regarded graphics as the main issue in heightening production values and still think it is. They say back in the 90's, Final Fantasy VII already had a marketing budget of like $100M. That's ridiculously huge even today.

But ask yourself if Square would've actually made a profit off of FFVII if it had to meet the graphical demands of today (and exceed them, as FF always has), let alone any other studio that didn't have such a powerful brand. They would've gone bankrupt faster than you can say The Spirits Within

Professional voice acting... orchestrated music, these things in my opinion don't play nearly as big a factor as is necessary to hire a gigantic team, pay licensing fees everywhere out the wazoo to make some AAA blockbuster with absurd graphical fidelity.

You don't have to abide by professional voice acting, you don't have to get orchestrated music, or a large team of writers (I mean really? 90% of the games that come out today have a completely negligible story line so I'm not sure what these writers are supposed to be doing), but if you're making console games today you do have to abide by these fucking graphic hogs because they're where the money is. Graphics are the easiest 'quality' to see

Okay, then support your own argument by going into more detail. How specifically are "modern graphic demands" are the main thing driving up costs?

Is it the price of licensing a game engine? The assets? The textures? Custom middleware solutions? Fancy stuff like performance capture?

You have a really warped view of game development if your main concern is that they're "putting all the money into graphics."

 

[Coxy]

I thought someone had bumped an old thread to laugh at him

Predicting this AFTER how the PS4 sold is a personal best for Pacther

 

[Harmen]

Yeah, this. I give it about 8-10 years.

Me too. If the streaming services really take off, I can see this happening.

People saying this is total bullshit only look at the current sales and not future potentials and other entertainment markets.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

You "phones can never do what my console can!" folks do know that your PS4 / Xbone has a mobile CPU inside it, right?

 

[Almighty]

I think the console doomsday scenario (tm) comes from this. What happens as the market contracts (which it is clearly is even if the PS4 is doing great) and makes AAA console games less and less profitable? And when fewer AAA games are made, are fewer consoles sold? And so on, in an endless death spiral? This isn't going to happen next year certainly, but it's a possibility in the next decade.

What happened to PC gaming starting around 2000 will be a good idea of what I think is in store for console gaming. It won't die off completely, but it will be a very different place then it was in the 360/PS3 generation.

 

[10k]

A part of me thinks Pachter doesn't take himself seriously when he talks about gaming and just says shit for shits and giggles. He loves the reaction from GAF and other outlets.

 

[Sadist]

MS knows less than Jon Snow Mike. If I were a betting man, I'd never bett on them.

Consoles as we know them right now could end, but I believe they'll evolve into something else.

 

[Percy]

I blame PS1 and Sony for allowing shovelware to make the comeback after Nintendo saved the industry by stopping that.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Of course enthusiast gaming board doesn't believe it, but he's right.

Within the next 20 years, there will no longer be a need for a dedicated gaming console.

Think about it, we have 32% fewer releases on this gen so far than we had in the last gen. Development costs continue to rise and the market for those products is flat at best.

Pretty soon, if not already happening, any remaining incentive to try and put games on these platforms to take advantage of the hardware are declining significantly.

You all may not want to see it, but it's pretty clear what is happening.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Sometimes Pachter can make sense, but this is like shooting in the sky without looking, hoping you'd hit something.

Consoles are here to stay, same thing was said before the ones we have now came out. Both are selling well, with the PS4 hitting 10 millions before it's first year.

Sure, phones are stronger than ever, but I think phones and consoles are different enough to have two different markets without totally cannibalizing one another.

Having a smart phone and paying the money for a convenient address book is costing people more money. I think there's a lot of people who just don't want games period. I say that because I'm consistently around people who use it as "what I remember as a kid" to what I'm playing now. I think people should broaden their horizons before throwing their hat. A lot of that is a form of bullying. People should get rid of their excuses to game and just game.

I can't stand always hearing why you played this or why you play that. Anymore the public needs an excuse. I don't want to stop a conversation in a room just because I play video games. It gets annoying that we have so many people who want to just point that out. Half the people who are against console also support this anti-violent game movement. I never hear them talk about the console they own. All the guys with the suits talk about "their kids" and its like they never found a square inch inside to actually enjoy the technology and what you can do with it. I know some guys my age who have taken that mentality. They always make this point of time management and they always try to turn it around on you. I hate it. I never push the conversation, but it has stopped a few friendships because it's more of an enjoyment to me than it is to them.

 

[Astro Racer]

I think Pachter should go bowling with Anita Sarkeesian and Jack Thompson.

 

[Shogun1337]

Okay, then support your own argument by going into more detail. How specifically are "modern graphic demands" are the main thing driving up costs?

Is it the price of licensing a game engine? The assets? The textures? Custom middleware solutions? Fancy stuff like performance capture?

You have a really warped view of game development if your main concern is that they're "putting all the money into graphics."

I'd say I have a curmudgeons view in that I've stated it bluntly and don't really have an interest in going into extreme detail. "Putting all the money into graphics" is the problem, it's always been problem #1, nothing else is problem #1 (sure there are problems #2 and #3, but they aren't number 1).

Yes, it is everything regarding 'graphics': Assets, designers, textures, game graphics engine licensing, game physics engine licensing, paying for many multiples of developers than we had in the industry even a decade ago (they've even been pulling in dozens of cheap overseas chinese developers just to try and make budget ala FFXIV!), paying for developers specifically tailored to these graphics and physics engines, custom solutions, mocap, CG, the million other things they do in the industry involving GRAPHICS that I don't even know about technologically speaking.

 

[Green Wiggly]

"again."

Yeah, is Pachter ever not predicting the death of the console?

 

[Damerman]

You "phones can never do what my console can!" folks do know that your PS4 / Xbone has a mobile CPU inside it, right?

Ok, thats the cpu, but what about the gpu? And the vram? And the extra cpu and memory that enhances streaming and downloading?

 

[BossLackey]

Why is anyone paying attention to this guy.

Yeah, I don't really understand.

 

[Lord Phol]

I don't care for Patcher or his usually faulty predictions, but I could see consoles loosing ground in the future. Todays consoles are pretty much PCs with different brands and support behind them. Unless they find a certain niche that can't be fulfilled elsewhere I could see them all slowly die out.

Ever since I got a smartphone I'm not using mp3s/walkmans anymore. Ever since streaming became popular I've stopped paying for TV services. Ever since I hooked up a good PC to my HDTV with a controller and discovered Steam my consoles started to collect dust. This seems to be a popular trend here in Sweden. Consoles are still popular but that could change in a decade or two.

 

[Vlade]

Yeah, is Pachter ever not predicting the death of the console?

I think that in 10 years he will be kinda right. maybe.

someone ask ms, sony, and nintendo. are they planning a console release in the future? these things are knowable.

 

[GlamFM]

He has no clue. He predicted the same thing last gen because nobody would ever max out the PS3...

Funny guy, but he should stick with financial stuff.

 

[Sothpaw]

Newspapers and physical copies of movies will never die either guys right? Consoles will die eventually, it is just a matter of when.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Ok, thats the cpu, but what about the gpu?

What do you think that all GPU R&D from AMD, nVidia and Intel have all been focussing on for the last few years? It isn't consoles.

and the vram? And the extra cpu and memory that enhances streaming and downloading?

And the Jiggaflops? And the special sauce? and the Megahurts?

I honestly don't know.

 

[Astro Racer]

Newspapers and physical copies of movies will never die either guys right?

But neither have. What's you point?

 

[The perfect Dark]

Does Pachter have multiple accounts on GAF? Don't give him any attention.

 

[Timeaisis]

Here we go again.

 

[Sayter]

Why is anyone paying attention to this guy.

Supposedly he makes his clients money. But, has his analysis really been that good?

 

[Spinluck]

It's going to happen.

But it won't be phones and smart TVs that do them in.

Gaming will exist in some other form though. The way we get our content will be different.

 

[anotherVegan]

This was the guy who said Nintendo wouldn't show anything new at E3, and thought Nintendo would be playing the old Smash Bros at the invitational...

 

[spwolf]

Supposedly he makes his clients money. But, has his analysis really been that good?

he drives a Porsche and has a trophy wife... right?

 

[Northeastmonk]

Supposedly he makes his clients money. But, has his analysis really been that good?

Does he really game a lot? Did he play Halo 1-4, MW, Tomb Raider, FF?

I could be standing outside of a billion dollar game launch and this guy is at home smoking a cigar and drinking a glass of wine. He just happens to pick up the reports the next day and goes to town.

I wouldn't expect Bill Gates to sign into TitanFall every night either. If they wanted to change everything they would of all stayed for the agenda. I think having them speak out about "it's death" shows just how much faith he has in their product.

 

[Harp]

So he is saying, The box that you connect to your TV will be replaced by a box that you connect to your TV.

 

[Jules Coast]

I don't really see his statement as that crazy, he didn't give a date. I don't really think he meant in the next 2 years.

Same way one can predict the end of Gamestop. Will it happen soon? No, but eventually, sometime in the future, it will.

 

[Arusu]

He's been regurgitating the same line for quite a while now. This isn't really news.

Not so long ago he said that pc market is dead and everyone will just make games for consoles. Let's wait for his opinion about console market in a year or two.

 

[axisofweevils]

I'm no fan of Pachter, but I do think consoles are losing popularity.

Out of the 5 main consoles right now (3DS, Vita, PS4, Xbox One, Wii U), I'd be stunned if even two of them end up outselling their predecessors.

 

[Shogun1337]

Supposedly he makes his clients money. But, has his analysis really been that good?

Who the hell knows anything about this guy actually? He's definitely not some wizard hedge fund manager or something. What exactly does he do? Because with his focus on video games, there have to be hundreds of better candidates that big companies and individuals would prefer to get advice from. Unless they were specifically interested in his video game angle...

 

[GhostTrick]

I have troubles seeing consoles as a dedicated hardware to disappear.
But I also have troubles to see the actual model, aka 3 manufacturers with their exclusives releasing each one their consoles with their architecture and their OS and their exclusives staying.

I could totally see home consoles to take a smartphone path, aka unified OS, different hardware but similar architectures and scalable graphics. Or more like PC.

 

[Radec]

And GAF gave him another +1 in his attention meter.

lol

 

[Acosta]

Consoles will be eternal then, thanks Pachter!

 

[Sarobi]

I think one part of his job is to say things that people don't agree with just to get attention. I mean if he said "Consoles are here to stay" people wouldn't care much.

 

[Hawaii Jeff]

Good news everyone, consoles are here to last.

Lol yes taking the "opposite - of - Pachter" approach!

 

[Cragvis]

Sorry, but phones are at least if not more a decade behind current consoles.

True, in 2 generations phones might be able to play CURRENT console games, but also by that time, the consoles out there will be light years ahead of that.

its like he expects consoles to just stop advancing for no reason, and for us to stick with current gaming tech for the next 20 years.

The market says and has proven otherwise.

How is he an 'analyst' again? He gets paid for this shit? Where do I sign up?

 

[Northeastmonk]

And GAF gave him another +1 in his attention meter.

lol

These same guys stand from a far and watch what GAF buys apparently. I can admit that when I go into Walmart I could be their only customer in their game selection for at least a day.

I don't know. We see this large trend. First the technology is fascinating. Let's put Wii's into every single nursing home across the globe. Let's exercise with body builders. And now the death of consoles. It's so strange. In the last 3 years there seems to have been this large case being brought up. Even the other day I heard this Boy Scouts of America ad on the radio and it said "Don't want your kid to play video games? Join the Boy Scouts of America". It was very one sided and I could almost picture the things parents and people in general were going to say. I think before that it was the Armed Forces. I know they advertised heavily inside GameStop.

I think it's taking more people who believe that video games are enjoyable to keep the industry running. I think a lot of the big wigs in America don't have that same enjoyment. All the famous people want to do is make money, then they go onto something else.

 

[FlyingSaucer]

Numbers seems to indicate that he is right.

 

[Onaco]

Weren't Pachter threads ban worthy? I guess not... I like the guy, but it seems he's getting out of touch a bit. I agree, but dedicated consoles are best for power. Plain and simple.

 

[Zombie James]

Numbers seems to indicate that he is right.

Which?

 

[Piers]

Prepare to be haunted by Pachter, GAF.

 

[Northeastmonk]

Prepare to be haunted by Pachter, GAF.

He doesn't seem like a guy who'd walk into a store and buy a video game. No offence. He didn't really fit into that whole GAF biography either. It's like dealing with an evil toy company through their eyes. They want to say this market is for this age, yet half the games doing well are ranged for everyone. Look at Spencer's quote about MineCraft's audience.

 

[speculawyer]

I thought someone had bumped an old thread to laugh at him

Predicting this AFTER how the PS4 sold is a personal best for Pacther

I so regret not saying AGAIN in the subject line. I was pretty sure he had said it in the past but I was too lazy to look it up.

 

[_Ryo_]

I believe him.

To be wrong.

 

[Baleoce]

The console won't "die" per se, but it will evolve and adapt to fit the market / consumers trends. Of that, I have no doubt.