Your point being?
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Pachter predicts the death of the console
- Thread starter speculawyer
- Start date
Your point being?
Yup that's why he is changing his tune now.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Fewer AAA games will be made but that was going to happen anyway.
Last gen everyone wanted to make there games AAA and that was part of the problem.
The game industry just becoming more like the movie industry where not every movie is a summer blockbuster.
Actually, that was about DVD, since Sony is probably western-world's largest "disc" media producer, of any kind.
BD is still growing, DVD is falling.
But nevertheless, movie is different proposition completely. You can rent on any service or via Netflix and watch on many different devices. You are much more limited with disc based media.
Patcher knows very little about technology, so he is misguided in his thinking that mobile phones will be used to play games on tv... thats not going to happen.
If someone makes SoC thats 10x more powerful than current best mobile chip, all that means is that it will be 20x more powerful without mobile chip limitations, and also cheaper too. There is no reason whatsoever to limit yourself to performance limited to 4w TDP of mobile phone.
So you will always have people buying "consoles" that cost half the price of latest phones, have 5x-10x better graphics and dont spend your battery while they are doing that,
JordanN
Banned
Why would a console die? I was in EB Games yesterday and the demand for console games couldn't be any greater.
I saw one guy pre-order 10 PS4 games. There was a family trading over 20 PS3/360 games. One guy was buying GTA 5 for his 4 year old child (lol).
Not only that, but the library of games is huge. One wall was full of all this Playstation stuff. The other side was full of Xbox games.
I think consoles will stick around as long people like me are buying them. And when consoles die, it might not be a death, but an evolution. Playstation and Xbox could still exist, but in some other form that's not a box sitting next to your TV.
I saw one guy pre-order 10 PS4 games. There was a family trading over 20 PS3/360 games. One guy was buying GTA 5 for his 4 year old child (lol).
Not only that, but the library of games is huge. One wall was full of all this Playstation stuff. The other side was full of Xbox games.
I think consoles will stick around as long people like me are buying them. And when consoles die, it might not be a death, but an evolution. Playstation and Xbox could still exist, but in some other form that's not a box sitting next to your TV.
Good. If consoles is starting to suck, I need to go back to PC, full time.
7DollarHagane
Banned
Well shit.
Here I was hoping he was actually right about the crazy Xbox one holiday offers and then he poops this diarrhea from his mouth. Guess I'm going to stick with the $50 gift card offer target has this week.
Here I was hoping he was actually right about the crazy Xbox one holiday offers and then he poops this diarrhea from his mouth. Guess I'm going to stick with the $50 gift card offer target has this week.
CosmicQueso
Member
Please tell me you understand the difference in demand today versus demand 10 and 20 years from now.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I agree with him in part, consoles are in a transition phase and I'm not sure what form next gen gen will take as different companies probably have different ideas.
I think some ppl are forgetting is that most gamers don't have high stds (overwise we would all be PC gamers) so as phones, streaming etc improve the traditional playerbase will dwindle.
I think some ppl are forgetting is that most gamers don't have high stds (overwise we would all be PC gamers) so as phones, streaming etc improve the traditional playerbase will dwindle.
Sony stated that both blu-ray and DVD sales in decline.
7DollarHagane
Banned
But there's a difference between "death" of console and integration into other devices. Going by the strict 1994 definition of console people back then would think them dead today.
There will always be desire for a cheap box that primarily plays games and connects to a TV. Unless games stop being made on a large scale "consoles" will exist.
Beerman462
Member
When are phones getting 8GBs of ram though. IPhone 5 only has 1GB. Some Androids have 3GB, but what's the bandwidth?
Chaplain
Member
I do not agree with Pachter's Either/or Reasoning, Hasty Generalization, Oversimplification, and Slippery Slope fallacies.
What I do think is bound to happen is that the consumers that are young and middle school will eventually be conditioned to the point where they will prefer cell phones for certain types of experiences and Virtual Reality for others. There might be a certain segment of console gamers who would be forced to 1) either succumb to these not-so-enticing gaming options (e.g. due to 1st and 3rd parties abandoning home consoles), 2) stay in the past through retro gaming, or 3) a new player emerges and fills the void left by the companies who have abandoned (e.g. similar to Nintendo and MS last gen) their hardcore base. Companies primary goal is to bring in money. So, if all the money is in cell phones, then that's were companies will gravitate towards.
speculawyer
Member
And why would you want it? Refreshing all that RAM would drain your battery. I guess you could have a mobile mode where it uses a small amount and a stationary plugged-in mode where it uses more RAM.
But why not have a phone and a console as separate items? What a concept.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
The arguments there are the same as the arguments for convergence of any other device
7DollarHagane
Banned
It does more shit you don't need for a higher price only it does it worse!
Yup, sounds like exactly what people want these days.
BronsonLee
Member
Franck's goddamn signing off on every post deserves to be drilled, even if he's not here!
JordanN
Banned
I'm ok with this. Angry Birds at 4k will look nice. That's all the power in a phone will be used for.
For AAA, I'm not expecting it. The mobile market believes in $1 games, they wont be able sell stuff on the level of Uncharted without going bankrupt. If not that, then it's probably some F2P game with microtransactions for every single command. Still not enough to drive me away from consoles.
Zombie James
Banned
If you look at the PS4 and XB1 alone compared to earlier consoles the platau after the launch is even more pronounced. Right now PS4 sales have looked like 360 sales and XB1 sales have looked like PS3 sales, but this time there is no PS2 ahead of both and certainly no Wii and DS to brighten the numbers.
I think worldwide numbers would be more valuable that just from one region.
Beerman462
Member
I wouldn't want it. I was being facitious.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
I don't believe you can made a good comparison to console sales falling behind their predecessors when the reasons for the XBO and WiiU's relatively underwhelming numbers are due more to poor decisions than demand, especially in the XBO's case. The WiiU, even without that name or the controller gimmick should've never been expected to come close to the Wii's numbers, the Wii crossed over into Tickle Me Elmo, Cabbage Patch Doll and so on fad territory no one in their right mind should've expected that to continue. Mobile is certainly have an impact on the casual market for handheld platforms but again I think a good portion of the 3DS's short comings in relation to the DS were again things Nintendo did themselves, especially early on though there's a large segment they would've lost regardless but they're not anywhere close to taking that away from actual consoles, mobile devices for as long as they have so many needed restrictions will never catch up.
As for the death of consoles, yeah not any time soon however everything will just continue to consolidate into one "living room hub" sort of device. Eventually they'll be powerful enough to multi-task to handle everything in the house hold and in the future be integrated into homes themselves just as shows/stories showed of the "future" (or well, Ironman with Jarvis) with hardware that'll be easy to upgrade in a unplug/plug-in manner in a small closet or something. It won't be a death, it'll be an evolution, an evolution that's been taking place for well over a decade already, pretty much since consoles did more than just play games.
As for the death of consoles, yeah not any time soon however everything will just continue to consolidate into one "living room hub" sort of device. Eventually they'll be powerful enough to multi-task to handle everything in the house hold and in the future be integrated into homes themselves just as shows/stories showed of the "future" (or well, Ironman with Jarvis) with hardware that'll be easy to upgrade in a unplug/plug-in manner in a small closet or something. It won't be a death, it'll be an evolution, an evolution that's been taking place for well over a decade already, pretty much since consoles did more than just play games.
I don't care on what I'll be playing in the future if I can still have them on my TV with no lag. What I'm kinda done with though is the "smart devices are the future" stuff. I've been hearing this line for so many years now and to be honest I'm kinda getting sick of those devices altogether now. I mean yeah, it's cool that my twitter machine can now play Infinty Blade Exodus or whatever but it's A: not a great game and B: I don't really care. I feel like people keep pushing this narrative and it makes sense seeing how people still are crazy for those devices but come on, PC gaming didn't die either after all.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
How are standalone MP3 players, pagers, digital cameras and netbooks selling these days?
You probably don't want to see Japanese sales figures.
Bright-Light
Member
It's difficult to argue with Pachter. Although it's obvious that mobiles phones will not be able to replace a pc/dedicated console in terms of graphics, depth etc, maybe the next generation just doesn't care for a dedicated graphic fidelity or deep gameplay mechanics. Maybe youngsters want 5 minute time wasters, your Kim kardashian games, candy crush, angry birds. (Even angry birds feels old school these days).
I'm 31 years old, I like games that have long narratives and last 10 to 20 hours. I don't know if I'm the target audience for the next generation.
The next two generations of phones takes us to 2016, which means pachter thinks phones can offer an experience which matches games like Uncharted 4, Gears of war 4, or Fallout 4.
I just don't see it.
Disclaimer: I have drank lots of tequila, this post might not make lots of sense.
I'm 31 years old, I like games that have long narratives and last 10 to 20 hours. I don't know if I'm the target audience for the next generation.
The next two generations of phones takes us to 2016, which means pachter thinks phones can offer an experience which matches games like Uncharted 4, Gears of war 4, or Fallout 4.
I just don't see it.
Disclaimer: I have drank lots of tequila, this post might not make lots of sense.
No they did not. They said disc based media, as they produce everything. Although thats not relevant to this thread anyway.
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/13revision_sony.pdf
Max Knight
Member
I actually think I would prefer that Microsoft focuses on PC in the gaming sphere. I'd much rather buy Microsoft games for the PC I already have than have to buy a brand new console for a handful of exclusives.
*cough*mybloodstreamismostlyKillerInstinctatthispoint*cough*
*cough*mybloodstreamismostlyKillerInstinctatthispoint*cough*
But then you have something like the Shield Tablet + Controller that can be hooked up to a TV and function basically as a console, but is also an Android tablet.
I think the lines will just become even blurrier; at what point does something like Amazon Fire TV become a console and the Vita TV a media player?
Way to miss the point. The argument was about some made-up people believing bluray to be forever.
The economics favor mobile devices.
People are willing to pay much more for them than they are for consoles. Every single person on earth is part of the addressable market, and hundreds of millions of people living in first world societies are willing to shell out $600-1000 for a new smartphone every two years. And it's no big deal to buy a $500 tablet every four years. There's much more profit to be made, and therefore more competitors and more innovation.
In contrast, dedicated, living room video game consoles appear to have a total addressable market of around 150M to 200M at the most. These people are willing to pay, $300-$500 (maybe) every five years.
So it's not inconceivable that mobile devices could surpass dedicated consoles in a few generations, and we could wind up with an Nvidia Shield-like solution for gaming. Not to mention streaming, which is enjoying rapid improvement.
It's likely that expensive PCs with higher wattage components will always crush mobile devices, but the console market is much more like the tablet market than the PC market.
People are willing to pay much more for them than they are for consoles. Every single person on earth is part of the addressable market, and hundreds of millions of people living in first world societies are willing to shell out $600-1000 for a new smartphone every two years. And it's no big deal to buy a $500 tablet every four years. There's much more profit to be made, and therefore more competitors and more innovation.
In contrast, dedicated, living room video game consoles appear to have a total addressable market of around 150M to 200M at the most. These people are willing to pay, $300-$500 (maybe) every five years.
So it's not inconceivable that mobile devices could surpass dedicated consoles in a few generations, and we could wind up with an Nvidia Shield-like solution for gaming. Not to mention streaming, which is enjoying rapid improvement.
It's likely that expensive PCs with higher wattage components will always crush mobile devices, but the console market is much more like the tablet market than the PC market.
Temash is clocked at 1 GHZ with a 8-10W TDP, Jaguar is close to double that at 1.6/1.8 GHZ and with a ~45W TDP.
The iPhone 5 is running at 1.3 GHZ and throttles to 1 GHZ after 2 minutes. TDP is probably around <3W. So not even close.
Edit: And no, Jaguar is based on Kabini, which is meant for netbooks.
Whew...I was getting a bit nervous there for a second.
Manmademan
Member
you're overlooking some really obvious stuff that makes this logic pretty silly.
1.) Most mobile hardware sold (at least in the US) is on contract and subsidized. no one anywhere is paying $600-1000 for a new smartphone every two years. Nobody. Even the people buying phones off contract aren't paying that- the vast majority of android phones simply don't cost that much.
2.) phones are highly limited in what they can do because they need to be able to run off a battery as well as still take calls/texts/etc. they're bad devices for gaming compared to a console and you won't see one match even something as old as a PS3 for quite some time.
3.) Tablet adoption has slowed down massively and prices have cratered. They aren't being replaced as often as cell phones, and most new models are in the $150-$300 range, and dropping fast. The Nvidia Shield itself is $300 new and will likely be half that six months from now. There's a lot of indication this market is getting saturated.
4.) Data caps mean mobile streaming isn't happening, so you can forget about that one for phones. That's Wifi only, and IF you can get a reliable, high bandwidth connection. not really a plausible solution for the broader market. Physical media is going to reach substantially more customers for a long time, and that's not even getting into the developing market, which is a growth area for Sony and MS.
Interceptor
Banned
Obligatory.
With the likely rise of oculus by next generation I doubt consoles go away any time soon.
They might even have a huge boom if oculus takes off. And the power needed to have a good oculus experience will be something that won't be possible on a roku, smart TV, tablet or cell phone.
They might even have a huge boom if oculus takes off. And the power needed to have a good oculus experience will be something that won't be possible on a roku, smart TV, tablet or cell phone.
1. Subsides, contracts -- I don't think you understand: That's precisely my point. If you buy an iPhone 6 this Friday, it may cost you "only $199" but, in reality, that's a $649 device. That's what Apple collects. If you go through T-Mobile, or some similar installment plan, you can get it for just $30/month, making it far more affordable to the average consumer -- but Apple still collects the full $649. Nothing like this exists for consoles, unless you want to put your new Xbox One on your credit card and make minimum payments. The existence of subsidies (and/or installment financing) is unique to mobile devices and majorly advantageous.
Imagine what would happen if Microsoft released a new version of the Xbox every single years that *started* at $649. Now realize that Apple and its high-end Android competitors do this and they sell hundreds of millions of units.
2. Have you seen Frostbite running on Apple's A7? That's already PS3 level, and it's in the iPhone 5S and iPad Air. The Tegra K1 could/will be equally as impressive. I'm expecting some big video game related demo when the Nexus 9 makes its debut next month.
3. Tablet adoption has slowed, but still absolutely crushes consoles. Last year, there were 200 million tablets sold. The PS4 and Xbox One, combined, over their entire lifespans, will be lucky to break 150 million.
4. Storage is a legitimate problem, but one that will be solved in time. Mobile-based gaming is much more likely to catch on in emerging markets than traditional consoles -- the idea that you can sell a $500 gaming box to many people in emerging markets is laughable.
ROFL. And we're done here.
HolyBaikal
Banned
I... I don't like the word... it disturbs me.