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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]

Lard

Banned
Cosmonaut X said:
For me, it's because that one device is usually a stack of compromises and is inferior to a dedicated device. It's useful if you are prepared to accept those compromises, but for anyone really into gaming, or photography, or... or... a convergence device is markedly inferior to the available dedicated products.

Well put.
 

SmokyDave

Member
Cosmonaut X said:
For me, it's because that one device is usually a stack of compromises and is inferior to a dedicated device. It's useful if you are prepared to accept those compromises, but for anyone really into gaming, or photography, or... or... a convergence device is markedly inferior to the available dedicated products.
Software aside*, a handheld can be markedly inferior to a console due to the compromises made in the name of portability. That console would be markedly inferior to a gaming PC due to compromises made in the name of affordability, ease of mass-production, that kinda thing.

Whatever you're playing, you're probably compromising in one area to support your preferences in another.


*Despite being the most important element, software is highly subjective. Personally I think I have a better library for my iPhone than I do for my PSP and I own all of the PSP big hitters.
 

M3d10n

Member
LCfiner said:
that might be fine for you, but you do realize that this cannot be Sony’s response to SmokyDave’s concern… right?
But is SmokyDave and others like him worth the trouble for Sony? We're talking about people who:

1) Game primarily on their consoles or gaming PCs.
2) Game on the go merely to pass time.

Obviously if such person owns a phone that offers acceptable games, what would Sony or Nintendo be able to do to grab their attention? Unless they turn their handhelds into all-in-ones, they won't be able to get a place in the pockets of people who have such restricted slot in their daily lifes for handheld gaming.

This is very similar to the situation with OSX versus Windows: the way Apple operates, OSX will never topple Windows as the world-dominant OS. There are a lot of home, professional and business users that have needs Mac computers don't meet, but Windows PC do. To dominate the market, Apple would need to change in order to meet those needs, but doing so might put them in a situation where they actually profit less than they do by staying in their self-built corner of the market.
 

commish

Jason Kidd murdered my dog in cold blood!
Lard said:
I didn't say useless, I said I prefer dedicated gaming machines for games and phones for phones. Dedicated devices for each work better for one. Is an Iphone going to play something like Persona 2 Innocent Sin or Tactics Ogre or Dragon Quest IX?

Nope.

I'm not interested in the bite size games that are on the Iphone.


Why can't it have something like Tactics Ogre? Final Fantasy Tactics is on its way to the system, and there are quite a few lengthy RPGs out for the system. But I agree that "normal" handheld games are generally deeper than the typical Iphone game. However, I, for one, play my handheld games AT HOME 99.9% of the time, so I could easily just play a "deeper" game on a console or my computer. For on the go gaming, something like Dragon Quest IX just isn't feasible when I only have a limited time to play on, say, my commute to work in the morning.

Cosmonaut X, the DS and PSP are a "stack of compromises" as well, make no mistake about it. I agree that, for some things, a convergence device is markedly inferior - photography being an obvious category. But I don't see the IOS as being inferior to the DS - I see it as being something that is simply different. Being different does not make it necessarily inferior. It just provides a different experience. For me, the experience it provides and the portability and cost of it all make it very attractive to me.

I still love my DS and play it almost every day, but I recognize the fact that the ios games offer me something that the DS simply cannot at this point.
 

Zoe

Member
FoneBone said:
... four years after the PSP version, and 14 years after the original PSX release. I don't think that's much of a response.

It's a response to the idea that the iPhone can't have that kind of game. And as iOS becomes a more viable platform, you will see quicker turnarounds.
 

Vyer

Member
Cosmonaut X said:
For me, it's because that one device is usually a stack of compromises and is inferior to a dedicated device. It's useful if you are prepared to accept those compromises, but for anyone really into gaming, or photography, or... or... a convergence device is markedly inferior to the available dedicated products.

commish is right, and there's also something to be said about just how wide a gap this 'inferiority' will be for the majority of people currently, and going forward. This concern is more valid if you think technology will suddenly come to a standstill. It will not. Just a few years ago the quality of the average cell phone camera (still photography or video) was vastly inferior to now. Those things have already changed.

Will it be like mid/high grade, professional equipment? Not yet. But then again those people that want a DSLR camera or something is buying that anyway right now, and skipping over the average point and shoot. The market will always exist, and they are not exactly what we are referencing here.
 

LCfiner

Member
M3d10n said:
But is SmokyDave and others like him worth the trouble for Sony? We're talking about people who:

1) Game primarily on their consoles or gaming PCs.
2) Game on the go merely to pass time.

Obviously if such person owns a phone that offers acceptable games, what would Sony or Nintendo be able to do to grab their attention? Unless they turn their handhelds into all-in-ones, they won't be able to get a place in the pockets of people who have such restricted slot in their daily lifes for handheld gaming.

This is very similar to the situation with OSX versus Windows: the way Apple operates, OSX will never topple Windows as the world-dominant OS. There are a lot of home, professional and business users that have needs Mac computers don't meet, but Windows PC do. To dominate the market, Apple would need to change in order to meet those needs, but doing so might put them in a situation where they actually profit less than they do by staying in their self-built corner of the market.


I agree with your post. I honestly don’t think creating a handheld gaming system aimed at people like Smokydave (or myself, for that matter) is a good idea.

And that’s why I find it perplexing that the PSP2 seems to be this rather high end device that looks to be expensive and may not launch at kid-friendly (technically parent-friendly) prices.

Portable gaming that’s not on your cellphone needs to be compelling enough for an adult to bring around this second device with them. that is becoming harder and harder to do. if Sony’s only compelling feature is “console-lite” experiences, I don’t see that being enough for people who already have consoles and gaming PCs.

And if the young teen market that sony is aiming the current PSP at can’t afford the PSP2, then that’s a bad move.

Or, if the hardware is being sold at a loss to get the price down to <300, then Sony needs to think about why all that hardware power is even important in the first place.

Everything I see about this PSP2 just has me scratching my head.

The Mac comparison isn’t exactly apt since they aim those computers at people who have at least a thousand bucks and they are insanely profitable selling them. Mac doesn’t need to overtake windows to be a great business for Apple. Sony’s not going to be successful with that same strategy since they’re selling a single purpose game console, not a multi purpose computer
 
Mrbob said:
You can get some fantastic deals (I bought Lego Harry Potter for $4.99 and it is the full DS/PSP game)
I know about Chinatown Wars also, but does anyone know about other games like this (full-featured like the DS/PSP experience or comparable to a DS/PSP game even if only on iOS)

EDIT: Sent you a PM Smoky btw.
 

SmokyDave

Member
M3d10n said:
But is SmokyDave and others like him worth the trouble for Sony?
I was, and still am, a large supporter of the PSP. I've picked up at least 30 titles for my PSP Go in the last 18 months. I'm exactly the kind of guy that Sony should worry about losing, for the reasons Pachter gave in the OP.

M3d10n said:
We're talking about people who:

1) Game primarily on their consoles or gaming PCs.
2) Game on the go merely to pass time.
Not I sir, I game on the go because I need games. That's why, until lately, I've always carried a handheld. My gaming time is pretty evenly split between PC/Console/Handheld.

M3d10n said:
Obviously if such person owns a phone that offers acceptable games, what would Sony or Nintendo be able to do to grab their attention? Unless they turn their handhelds into all-in-ones, they won't be able to get a place in the pockets of people who have such restricted slot in their daily lifes for handheld gaming.
Nintendo already have my attention with the glassesless 3D (and the fact that all Nintendo handhelds get genuinely irresistible, exclusive games). I'll be buying a 3DS even though I have no intention of ever taking it out of the house. It's Sony that are in a pickle here.

Edit: See the above reply by LCFiner instead, it's a much better read.
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Donnie said:
Erm, or they could make it full 3D, imagine Angry Birds in full 3D with stereoscopic 3D so you can see exactly how far your target is away from you.

That is not how the 3DS works. In fact the scenario you described would be more like, "Imagine the tree parallax looking like simulated depth of field!"
 

Lard

Banned
SmokyDave said:
Edit: See the above reply by LCFiner instead, it's a much better read.

Yes, but if, by a fluke, the PSP2 or the 3DS sells like gangbusters and outsells the iphone, Pachter will accuse consumers of betraying analysts by not buying what he told them to.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
Scott32020 said:
I know about Chinatown Wars also, but does anyone know about other games like this (full-featured like the DS/PSP experience or comparable to a DS/PSP game even if only on iOS)

Crimson Gem Saga
Shining Force (+ tons of other Sega games such as Sonic, Phantasy Star II, etc)
Pheonix Wright
Final Fantasy I/II PSP remakes
Monkey Island 1/2 SE remakes
Puzzle Agent
Eternal Legacy (if it turns out good, slim chance, but it's still such an attempt)
Espgaluda 2 / Don-Don-Pachi Resurrection / Assault Squadron
Galaxy on Fire 2
R-Type
Civilization Revolution
Ash
Carcassonne
Drop 7 (comparable to Tetris)
Puzzle Quest 1/2 (also Castlevania Puzzle: Encore of the Night)
Rimelands: Hammer of Thor
Undercroft
Myst
Riven
7th Guest (coming soon)
Final Fantasy Tactics (coming later)
War of Eustrath
Game Dev Story
Dungeon Hunter 2
Chaos Rings / Ash

Just to name a few. There's really no shortage of meatier, handheld-like experiences on iOS (or even direct ports), and more and more are released all the time.
 

LCfiner

Member
Lard said:
Yes, but if, by a fluke, the PSP2 or the 3DS sells like gangbusters and outsells the iphone, Pachter will accuse consumers of betraying analysts by not buying what he told them to.


I really like this turn of phrase :lol

3DS will probably sell very well if it launches at 250. it has enough of a differentiation factor with the glassless 3D plus the promise of Nintendo IP to get people interested. in fact, Pachter has expected it to be supply constrained for at least a year if it were to sell at 250. it’s only the PSP2 that he considers to be DOA :p
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
DS and PSP sold much more units than consoles.

And 3DS and PSP2 will probably increase the gap with consoles, because they will technically be able to run more killer apps, and killer apps are what drive sales.

Following Pachter's logic, smartphones will make next consoles DOA.
 

Sipowicz

Banned
the people saying this is DOA need to shut the fuck up. there's no reason it wont sell well like its predecessor and there's no reason the games wont sell if they sort out the piracy issue.

i can honestly say that i'm more excited about the PSP2 than the 3DS. In terms of software the 3DS is a DS + a PSP. An amalgamation of two awesome systems

the PSP2 is less of a known quantity, and the back touchpad is something i've never experienced before. i can't wait to try it out
 

FoneBone

Member
Sipowicz said:
there's no reason it wont sell well like its predecessor and there's no reason the games wont sell if they sort out the piracy issue.
There are plenty of valid reasons to think both, and they've all been heavily discussed in this thread and previous ones regarding the PSP.
 

LJ11

Member
A few months ago we were hearing rumors about the 3DS and how it was capable of producing graphics similar to the 360. Sony can't afford to go from broke with the specs, they need to sell it for under $200, even that's pushing the limit.

Would also be nice if they could set up a distribution model similar to XNA creators club, get Indie devs to jump on board and sell small bite sized games for next to nothing.

FoneBone said:
That goes against their existing strategy and everything we know about the system. Not a prayer.

Like I said, months ago we heard the 3DS was going to match the 360. How did that turn out?

If you look at Sony's recent surge in the digital camera market, they've been able to match or exceed competitor products at a lower msrp. They need to do the same in this space to have a realistic shot, especially with the market becoming increasingly crowded.
 

M3d10n

Member
SmokyDave said:
Nintendo already have my attention with the glassesless 3D (and the fact that all Nintendo handhelds get genuinely irresistible, exclusive games). I'll be buying a 3DS even though I have no intention of ever taking it out of the house. It's Sony that are in a pickle here.

Edit: See the above reply by LCFiner instead, it's a much better read.
I saw your post, got a clearer picture now. My post still stands, but not targeted at you.

I agree that the 3DS has less to worry about: the 3D screen is genius since it provides an instant wow factor (most people are unaware of 3D being possible without glasses, and both kids and technophiles will be snared by it) and it will take quite a while for it to make into iDevices (at the very least they don't work well when covered in fingerprints). Also, Nintendo handhelds always have a large amount of games one cannot get anywhere else.

Even if Sony manages to build the monster hardware from the rumors, they risk making the PSP2 nothing more than a port-house: getting mostly ports from PS360 *and* 3DS games. That didn't turn out well for the PSP in its early life.
 

Emitan

Member
I think if they made a system similar in power to the 3DS, but due to not having that expensive screen it was cheaper, and had great online features it would be a real competitor. Going for power will drive up the price too much, and I don't think they'd gain much from overwhelmingly more powerful specs.
 

FoneBone

Member
Billychu said:
I think if they made a system similar in power to the 3DS, but due to not having that expensive screen it was cheaper, and had great online features it would be a real competitor. Going for power will drive up the price too much, and I don't think they'd gain much from overwhelmingly more powerful specs.
Er... Have you been deliberately ignoring every single rumor about the PSP2?
 

Emitan

Member
FoneBone said:
Er... Have you been deliberately ignoring every single rumor about the PSP2?
I'm just stating what I think would be a good idea. I don't like their current plans because I think it's way too likely to fail.
 

Vinci

Danish
LJ11 said:
A few months ago we were hearing rumors about the 3DS and how it was capable of producing graphics similar to the 360. Sony can't afford to go from broke with the specs, they need to sell it for under $200, even that's pushing the limit.

...

Like I said, months ago we heard the 3DS was going to match the 360. How did that turn out?

Anyone who actually believed that has larger problems than the extraordinarily remote possibility of Apple taking over gaming.
 

M3d10n

Member
Billychu said:
I'm just stating what I think would be a good idea. I don't like their current plans because I think it's way too likely to fail.
Well, it's a crazy idea, but it could work. With a single screen and no 3D they could make something more powerful (but not oulandishly so) *and* cheaper.
 

Sadist

Member
Still, the Apple comments are getting out of hand. It's like analysts want Apple to succeed.

Allthough Eedar has some different opinions.
 

Takao

Banned
I still don't really consider iOS a serious handheld platform as it's the opposite of what every known handheld device has done. Apple doesn't support it with any software of their own, and the market is always on a race to the bottom where direct clones of other games can succeed. That's before we bring in the whole "image" thing. No one truly views an iPod Touch or an iPhone as a video gaming platform, they view it as a media player, or a phone. And why should they? There's no real compelling software that would want to make a person buy an iOS based device just to play it. I know no one who bought an iPod Touch because of Angry Birds, or Fruit Ninja. Then there's that whole button issue...
 
Aaron said:
Actually, phones and tablets are terrible e-readers for anyone trying to do so at a stretch.

Says you! There are plenty of people here and elsewhere who will sing the praises of the iPad or even a phone-sized device as an eReader -- which is really the point: despite satisfying some uncertain but clearly non-zero percentage of people, these devices aren't actually rendering eInk readers obsolete. It's very much comparable to the issue of "I don't need buttons, I don't need big games, I don't need multiplayer" etc. with gaming -- there are lots of people who really don't need those things, but the market that does is still economically quite significant, more than enough to support at least one high-quality dedicated device.

The Abominable Snowman said:
Do we have iOS game sales figures? I've heard of games like Angry Birds doing well, but did it cross a million? And how many other iOS games have been so lucky?

Angry Birds has passed 12 million paid sales and 30 million free, ad-supported downloads.

Minsc said:
more traditional console/handheld 10+ hour gaming experiences, which as a whole I believe gaming is moving away from anyway.

Just like it did in 2001 when everyone got into Bejeweled, right?

Casual gaming and higher-investment gaming have co-existed for the entire history of the medium. People have decried (or praised) casual gaming as tearing down the edifice of deep, complex, or long games for decades and it has never actually happened.

FoneBone said:
... four years after the PSP version, and 14 years after the original PSX release.

And only after every conceivable cost has been amortized over those other releases, allowing SE to bargain-basement it. People keep saying "ZOMG CHINATOWN WARS IS $10" while ignoring that it's been sold on two platforms beforehand. It's equivalent to looking at Virtual Console releases of stuff like Shining Force and saying "why can't new games with this much content be $6!?"

M3d10n said:
But is SmokyDave and others like him worth the trouble for Sony?

Nope. Sony's primary market in Japan is teens, who are going to continue carrying PSPs (or PSP2s) with them everywhere, blissfully unaffected by the trends we're discussing here; Sony's market in the US is going to be, at best, people who really really want to play significant games portably, or possibly (depending on whether they're smart) people who want a semi-console that's portable but can output to a TV.

commish said:
Why can't it have something like Tactics Ogre?

Because there's currently no conceivable way to recoup the investment on a title like the Tactics Ogre remake with App Store pricing and marketing: you're not gonna be able to sell it for $40 and you'll never sell enough to be profitable at $10.

Sadist said:
Still, the Apple comments are getting out of hand. It's like analysts want Apple to succeed.

No duh. Analyst talks up Apple in public, takes client's money to officially recommend Apple to them in private, Apple's stock goes up for reasons entirely unrelated to the random comments made by the analyst, analyst drives home in their Ferrari while lighting their cigar with a burning hundred dollar bill.
 

McLovin

Member
I'm glad he said that, given his track record we can bet that it will be a success :D
Seriously though, the only way I'll buy one is if it has glasses-less 3D like the 3DS.
 
Stuff like the Tactics Ogre remake could eventually be released for iOS, but only after its sales on the PSP have slowed down to practically zilch in all regions. After that it doesn't hurt to rerelease it for iOS at like $14.99, but doing so any earlier would just undermine the PSP version for no real benefit. If we see a coexisting ecosystem between PSP2/3DS and iOS in the future, it'll likely be something like that: much-delayed releases for cheaper on iOS.

I don't even know how this works for Android, since Android users hate paying ANYTHING for their apps.
 

FoneBone

Member
Zoe said:
It's a response to the idea that the iPhone can't have that kind of game. And as iOS becomes a more viable platform, you will see quicker turnarounds.
Nobody's said it can't. The question is just how viable it is to develop that sort of content from the ground up (at this point, probably not very).
 

jman2050

Member
FoneBone said:
Nobody's said it can't. The question is just how viable it is to develop that sort of content from the ground up (at this point, probably not very).

Not for the prices people are paying on the App Store anyway.

Which is why if those games start being made the prices logically need to go up. or alternatively the expected price range will stay the same and iDevices will forever be doomed to short non-meaty titles like it is now. It can't have its cake and eat it too.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
Minsc said:
List

Just to name a few. There's really no shortage of meatier, handheld-like experiences on iOS (or even direct ports), and more and more are released all the time.
That's lots of old software being ported over (Even Game Dev Story is an old Japan only PC game). Is a not brainier to port that for minimal cost. But new high budget games? The big names from big studios that were supposed to show the real capabilities of the platform (on a technical level) ended being budget 30 minute games.
 

Zoe

Member
FoneBone said:
Nobody's said it can't. The question is just how viable it is to develop that sort of content from the ground up (at this point, probably not very).

Lard, who I was responding to, said so:

Lard said:
I didn't say useless, I said I prefer dedicated gaming machines for games and phones for phones. Dedicated devices for each work better for one. Is an Iphone going to play something like Persona 2 Innocent Sin or Tactics Ogre or Dragon Quest IX?

Nope.

I'm not interested in the bite size games that are on the Iphone.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
jman2050 said:
Not for the prices people are paying on the App Store anyway.

Which is why if those games start being made the prices logically need to go up. or alternatively the expected price range will stay the same and iDevices will forever be doomed to short non-meaty titles like it is now. It can't have its cake and eat it too.
Put is this way, iD Software first iPhone project was to test the waters for higher priced iOS games, at $10. Their latest high end spectacular game is $1-$2...
 

.la1n

Member
Iv'e really grown tired of 3D in movie (Avatar's method included.) Growing up an 80s kid I do not see any difference in what they did then and what they are doing now, an excuse to jack up ticket prices with an increased chance of headache and disorientation. Iv'e played the 3DS and it's on the same page as far as i'm concerned. If the games are great then good but otherwise please keep 3D away from the rest of my handhelds, kthxbye.
 

jman2050

Member
Lonely1 said:
Put is this way, iD Software first iPhone project was to test the waters for higher priced iOS games, at $10. Their latest high end spectacular game is $1-$2...

Then I guess we're going the "doomed" route for the time being.
 

Mrbob

Member
gofreak said:
The IGN article says so, but other reports have been notably quiet about. Maybe cause it's just not so remarkable to have one.

You could make a great bubblewrap popping game with that and the rear touch ;)

Hahaha, if the device has rumble you could feel every pop. :lol

The rear track pad alone is interesting, but without a multi touch front panel I wonder about its usefulness. Now you add a front multi touch panel with a rear track pad and you may have a something which could lend itself to unique game experiences.
 

commish

Jason Kidd murdered my dog in cold blood!
jman2050 said:
Not for the prices people are paying on the App Store anyway.

Which is why if those games start being made the prices logically need to go up. or alternatively the expected price range will stay the same and iDevices will forever be doomed to short non-meaty titles like it is now. It can't have its cake and eat it too.

http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/eternal-legacy/id402027104?mt=8

yeah, i agree. No one will ever make "meaty" titles for under 10 bucks. Ios is doomed.
 

LCfiner

Member
FoneBone said:
Hm, I really, really wonder how a Gameloft clone compares to the JRPGs on PSP and DS. No, wait, I don't.

SE’s FF remakes (still not available for PSP Go owners) and Chaos Rings (for 13 bucks) are probably better examples...
 

commish

Jason Kidd murdered my dog in cold blood!
LCfiner said:
SE’s FF remakes (still not available for PSP Go owners) and Chaos Rings (for 13 bucks) are probably better examples...

Probably so, but the game I linked was just released today so it was the first thing I thought of. My point is that there are companies out there making "meaty" new games and selling them for less than $10. To suggest otherwise is to blatantly ignore what games have already been released. Of course, you can always say "but but it's not as good as DS RPGs!" I've played RPGs on the ios system that were very good and lasted 15 to 20 hours for a few dollars. I'm not sure what the guy I quoted meant by "non-meaty".
 

FoneBone

Member
LCfiner said:
SE’s FF remakes (still not available for PSP Go owners) and Chaos Rings (for 13 bucks) are probably better examples...
Chaos Rings would be a good example. Sloppy fifths like the FF remakes wouldn't be.
 
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