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[Zoe]

Publishers want money. If they have a big team they sure as hell aren't going to want to make a $1 profit on games.

Big teams aren't the ones making $1 games.

 

[Josh7289]

Hmmm, isn't Japan quite different when it comes to handhelds?

And isn't it only natural for DS sales to decline 6 years into the system, with a successor on the near horizon?

I think it's as Nintendo says. As long as hardware manufacturers can keep creating something unique and attractive that provides new experiences, they'll be fine.

 

[jrricky]

I know I've asked this question before, but do you really see 10 year olds working around playing games on cellphones and iPods in the US? The image of that seems ridiculous.

Funny thing is, Ive already seen a bunch of 5 year olds with iPod Touch's...its ridiculous...

 

[Zoe]

But Pachter is talking about the iTouch.

Not much difference in the long run between the iTouch/iPhone. And the quote I was replying to included Android.

Funny thing is, Ive already seen a bunch of 5 year olds with iPod Touch's...its ridiculous...

All my friends with young children (< 5) talk about how their kids are better with the iPods than they are.

 

[To Far Away Times]

The iPod is as big a threat to handhelds as web based flash games are to consoles.

 

[Lonely1]

Not much difference in the long run between the iTouch/iPhone. And the quote I was replying to included Android.

You said you don't want to carry an additional device to your phone. Well, the iTouch isn't a cellphone.

 

[xbhaskarx]

The iPod is as big a threat to handhelds as web based flash games are to consoles.

I think you took it a little to far there, the first two are somewhat of a threat to each other, whereas the other two are completely separate.

“What’s the difference if you play Tetris on an iPod Touch or on a DS? Well, you pay a buck on the iPod Touch, you pay $20 on the DS."


How many of the same games can you play on the web and consoles? Alien Hominid, N, Quake...? I know you can't play all the same games on iPod vs handheld, but the overlap will be far greater

 

[bhlaab]

If you want a dedicated gaming handheld you're going to get a 3DS. If you want cheap casual or indie stuff you'd want to go iOS.

You want something that's too much like a console to be a handheld and too crappy to replace the "real" consoles you get a PSP 2. That is, if it takes after the PSP 1. If it doesn't, then it will probably be like a third rate iPad knockoff except with less functionality and a smaller library.

The iPod is as big a threat to handhelds as web based flash games are to consoles.

You mean the iPod isn't a threat to Nintendo handhelds. For Sony handhelds, it certainly fucking is.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

It's like he doesn't get that there's a substantial difference in content, depth, design philosophy and market between iTunes store games and physical store releases.

It's like saying that because Andre Rieu is getting more and more popular each year, therefore Lady Gaga's next album will be dead on arrival.

Does he pay attention to target markets and market positioning at all when he makes his predictions?

 

[Takao]

I saw this a while back, and was really hoping no one would post it. He's got a truly flawed mentality in his observations about the handheld market, but hey, he gets paid to say what he does, not me.

 

[demigod]

Big teams aren't the ones making $1 games.

And exactly why those games aren't aimed at gamers, ya know, the people that buys handhelds.

 

[Proc]

I don't think Sony can sell it based on hardware alone, especially if it is at the same price point as the ipod touch.

I think they are going to have to come out with an awesome launch-window lineup in order for it to gather any momentum in the handheld space.

Personally, as an owner of a launch-day psp, I have no idea what it would take for me to buy one.

 

[rpmurphy]

I agree in principle, but you miss a large part of the point here: what gaming on iDevices and Android do is help scratch the itch of mobile gaming for a lot of people. no, iOS and Android can't match a PSP2 feature-for-feature, but they have *enough* features to make people content enough with them to not necessarily seek out a dedicated mobile platform.

THAT is the problem. iOS and Android make people a little less interested in a dedicated platform. that should put the fear of God into Sony.

Considering that handheld gaming is skewed more towards the younger generations who consider the "wow" factor of games and peer purchases to be probably a much greater priority than convergence and convenience, they might not be as much of a factor. I would like to see more analysis on that, like cell phone usage, music collection size, movie collection size, web browsing time, and video game session play time for those demographics compared to the older generations.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Considering that handheld gaming is skewed more towards the younger generations who consider the "wow" factor of games and peer purchases to be probably a much greater priority than convergence and convenience, they might not be as much of a factor. I would like to see more analysis on that, like cell phone usage, music collection size, movie collection size, web browsing time, and video game session play time for those demographics.

I too would like to see more research.

But at minimum, I'd be concerned. For those who aren't hardcore mobile game players but do like playing from time to time...some % of them will no longer buy a portable game console because their smartphones can scratch the proverbial itch. how many people does that group make up? I've no idea.

 

[cuyahoga]

I know I've asked this question before, but do you really see 10 year olds working around playing games on cellphones and iPods in the US? The image of that seems ridiculous.

Yes, I have. Actually, I've only seen one person ever play a PSP out in a public, and they were an adult.

 

[Zoe]

And exactly why those games aren't aimed at gamers, ya know, the people that buys handhelds.

So? He's saying that there's a better market for those games than for traditional handheld games. Which is probably true which makes what he's saying relevant to publishers and investors.

 

[seady]

It's really sickening to see these people keep on thinking the iPod Touch is the ONLY future of handheld gaming.

I am sure it will be a part of it, but having only a touch screen and a market that mostly support free to 2 dollars micro games, it will not be in the same market as the 3DS or PSP.

We will not ever see a true Kingdom Hearts or Metal Gear Solid game on the iPod Touch. Not only because App Store audience will not support full $30-40 games, but because the touch screen will limit the gameplay. The most you would see is something like Metal Gear Solid Touch.

The App Store open market is an interesting one. You could argue it to be very innovative and different to our standard retail model, but there is also a huge down side to it (that people like Pachter always love to ignore).

 

[seady]

The iPod is as big a threat to handhelds as web based flash games are to consoles.

More like
"The iPod is as big a threat to handhelds as Wii is to HD consoles."

Different market, different gameplay style. Wii has a ton of gameplay limitation (due to non-HD and motion controller). iTouch has a ton of gameplay limitation (due to touch screen only interface). The 3DS and PSP2 will have touch screen + standard controls, the 360 and PS3 have motion control now + HD graphics.

The people that believe in Pachter are mostly "casual" handheld gamers who doesn't know or care much about handheld gaming - just like how the non-gamers and so called "analyst" who believe the Wii will totally kill the HD consoles few years back.

 

[Hazelhurst]

Dual analog sticks and the PSP, PS1, and PS2 library (all via PSN), plus PSP2 games...yes, this thing has failure written all over it.

 

[Tylahedras]

I hope the PSP2 is a device worth buying, but I agree with pachter.

 

[Kusagari]

Pachter is never right on Sony so I guess PSP2 is going to kill 3DS.

 

[zlatko]

Honestly the PSP2 formula can be so simple for success. Add a second nub/dual stick option. Update the graphics potential, improve wi-fi and online, make it backwards compatible, and try not to go past the 250 price mark.

I'm leaving this last part as it's own stand out thing they need to improve:

STOP IT FROM BEING SO DAMN EASY TO PIRATE GAMES!

That was the PSP's biggest fail if you ask me. So easy to hack it and get free games, and way too many people did. The PSP didn't lack great exclusive titles to make it desirable to the consumer, but with the prices they set it at and the hacking problem it killed its potential.

If Sony can't succeed on a PSP2 when you have to do so LITTLE to have a winner, then they are screwed.

 

[jman2050]

*Reads thread title*

Well yeah, of course it'll be DOA, the 3DS is pretty much going to clean up the dedicated gaming market and Sony won't have the benefit of a head start this time around--

*Reads full-blown iDevice circlejerk #2476*

Oh come on, this again?

 

[Lonely1]

So? He's saying that there's a better market for those games than for traditional handheld games. Which is probably true which makes what he's saying relevant to publishers and investors.

But that doesn't mean that the traditional handhelds are going away. The same way that Farmville will not kill Starcraft.

 

[bhlaab]

It's really sickening to see these people keep on thinking the iPod Touch is the ONLY future of handheld gaming.

I am sure it will be a part of it, but having only a touch screen and a market that mostly support free to 2 dollars micro games, it will not be in the same market as the 3DS or PSP.

Not the ONLY future, but by far the biggest part of it.

We will not ever see a true Kingdom Hearts or Metal Gear Solid game on the iPod Touch. Not only because App Store audience will not support full $30-40 games...

You say that like it even remotely matters.

The App Store open market is an interesting one. You could argue it to be very innovative and different to our standard retail model, but there is also a huge down side to it (that people like Pachter always love to ignore).

Small, independent developers making huge money on smaller projects while the big publishers throw millions of dollars on the same old shit year after year and assemble think-tanks of marketeers to try to figure out the most ideal way to screw the consumer out of more cash.

Tell me again about that downside?

 

[Lard]

*Unless* they charge for online.

Pachter is such a douche.

 

[MightyKAC]

I don't think Sony can sell it based on hardware alone, especially if it is at the same price point as the ipod touch.

I think they are going to have to come out with an awesome launch-window lineup in order for it to gather any momentum in the handheld space.

Personally, as an owner of a launch-day psp, I have no idea what it would take for me to buy one.

I know exactly why I would buy a PSP2. Same reason everyone in Japan would.

A portable HD Monster Hunter.

 

[rpmurphy]

I too would like to see more research.

But at minimum, I'd be concerned. For those who aren't hardcore mobile game players but do like playing from time to time...some % of them will no longer buy a portable game console because their smartphones can scratch the proverbial itch. how many people does that group make up? I've no idea.

Right, but I think it's also probably safe to say that mobile gaming has expanded the realm of portable gaming, to become readily available for older demographics who might as well have given up portable gaming time if the technology were as limited as in the past to satisfy their needs. How much real shift there is to mobile gaming from traditional handheld gaming? That's where the research comes into use.

I'm sure that Nintendo and Sony has at least some basic understanding of what they're up against, and it's probably overstatement on the part of Pachter to say that there will be no viable market for portable gaming outside of the mobile space when things have yet to come and considering how well the DS and PSP markets have held up over the past couple years.

 

[Zoe]

But that doesn't mean that the traditional handhelds are going away. The same way that Farmville will not kill Starcraft.

I never said they were going away--on the previous page I said they had their own market. But it's not where the big bucks are anymore.

 

[jman2050]

A select few small, independent developers making modest money on smaller projects while the big studios make millions of dollars on the same old shit year after year while losing those millions because of terrible organizational issues

ftfy

 

[jagowar]

I agree in principle, but you miss a large part of the point here: what gaming on iDevices and Android do is help scratch the itch of mobile gaming for a lot of people. no, iOS and Android can't match a PSP2 feature-for-feature, but they have *enough* features to make people content enough with them to not necessarily seek out a dedicated mobile platform.

THAT is the problem. iOS and Android make people a little less interested in a dedicated platform. that should put the fear of God into Sony.

Agreed.... this is also the reason xbox live is on the new windows phone (ms saw the writing on the wall). Most people don't need full gaming on the go when you typically in smaller periods of time. That is the genius of the cheaper price for ios gaming.

Even sony has seen this hedging their bet with the pretty much confirmed psp phone.

 

[ZealousD]

Patcher is a gaffer?!

Yes.

 

[Proc]

I know what would make me buy it.

Portable diablo 3.

 

[demigod]

So? He's saying that there's a better market for those games than for traditional handheld games. Which is probably true which makes what he's saying relevant to publishers and investors.

They are a better market because the games are dirt cheap, hence my $1 profit comment I made. Do you honestly think they're going to release $1 games that require bigger budget, bigger teams? Nope they won't.

The only way the PSP2 can fail is if they use the same business model as the PSP Go, aka DD only. :lol

 

[badcrumble]

I know what would make me buy it.

Portable diablo 3.

Oh fuck suddenly I understand why people like Monster Hunter Portable so much. I just got it.

 

[ixix]

I think the big woody of the iPod Touch is cutting into the handheld market

What a positively delightful quote.

 

[DR2K]

DOA for PSP2!

 

[bhlaab]

ftfy

I said they throw millions at the same old shit every year.

Never said they make any of it back!

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

PSP2 confirmed to defeat the Nintendo 3DS.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

if you have a smart phone what is the point of them? You can play better games on them yes but when do u have time to play those games all the way through? Most handheld games I play are like angrybirds.. and i play for about 5 minutes.

for one thing, i dont have to pay $200+ just to LEASE a PSP2 and pay a $50 monthly data/talk plan for 2 years.......

 

[The Technomancer]

Saturation on the handheld market? Is he fucking kidding?

Besides 3DS there is nothing else but CELLPHONES coming out next year. PSP2 will be a dedicated gaming handheld, setting itself apart by delivering REAL CONTROLS and (most likely) a substantial graphics boost over 3DS.

Funny, that's what they said six years ago as well...

 

[Zoe]

They are a better market because the games are dirt cheap, hence my $1 profit comment I made. Do you honestly think they're going to release $1 games that require bigger budget, bigger teams? Nope they won't.

Once again, so? Big teams/big budgets are huge risks for publishers. That's why we keep hearing about layoffs and studios closing. That's why you have companies like Disney completely changing their focus to casual games.

As duckroll said earlier

Why would he have an interest in "gamers" when his job is a financial analyst?

 

[frAntic_Frog]

If Sony can't succeed on a PSP2 when you have to do so LITTLE to have a winner, then they are screwed.

all they need to do is make a hipster piece of handheld with facebook/twitter/app/social-network/texting capabilities and the unwashed masses will lap it up

no real need to focus on gaming anymore....

 

[Lonely1]

They are a better market because the games are dirt cheap, hence my $1 profit comment I made. Do you honestly think they're going to release $1 games that require bigger budget, bigger teams? Nope they won't.

The latest, biggest, baddest iOS High budget games from some of the best studios, specially in the tech department... are $2 and $6 30 minute-long games. I understand the the modern young adult might prefer those to play during their limited free time at work. But what about the other parts of the market? Kids that want to play his Pokemans while their dad is watching the Dallas Cowboys; young adults like myself that want to play something more meaningful during the day; Teenagers that might enjoy WLAN sessions of MH. And lest no underestimate system loyalist that just need to play every Mario and God of War title out there.

 

[Nose Master]

Yeah, one successful handheld suuuure is saturated all right.

 

[DiscoJer]

I hate to agree with him (as the PSP is my favorite gaming device since the Colecovision), but I think that 3rd parties in the West pretty much destroyed the handheld market in the west, with the rush to port everything to the iPhone (and now Android) for under $10. (And not just iPhone, XBLA/PSN as well in some cases, or PS2 in the case of PSP)

Quite a few $30-40 PSP/DS titles got ported there. Why won't that happen with the 3DS and PSP2?

(GTA is the biggest example of this. $50 on PSP, then $20 a few months later on the PS2. And then again, $40 on the DS/PSP, $10/$5 on iPhone)


Nintendo has Nintendo and a handful of 3rd parties that aren't that stupid to sacrifice their DS sales for quick bucks on other platforms.

What does Sony have? They have some decent IP, but nothing at all like Nintendo. And other than Ready at Dawn, they never put any AAA teams (or effort) into their PSP stuff.

And their main IP, Gran Turismo was pretty much ruined by GT PSP. Who on Earth would honestly believe they would deliver a quality GT on the PSP2, given the track record?

I guess they still have Uncharted and God of War, but the last one is almost to the point of being milked.

That said, probably still viable in Japan, especially if they can somehow get MH4 as an exclusive. And that means there might be a stream of games from Japan (much like there is now for the PSP - virtually no Western development for it in the last couple years that wasn't paid for by Sony, but lots of imported stuff from Japan)

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I never said they were going away--on the previous page I said they had their own market. But it's not where the big bucks are anymore.

Correction. That's not where the growth is anymore. The stars of yesteryear become the cash cows of today (i.e. those big bucks are still there - they're just not getting any bigger). Just be prepared to shoot the dogs when you need to.

 

[seady]

I think people here focus too much on the raw power of the PSP2 or 3DS and ignore other possibilities that Nintendo and Sony might do.

The biggest advantage Apple has is those cheap downloadable games. What prevent Nintendo and Sony from going much deeper with their AppStore-like market in the next generation of handheld gaming?

The advantage Nintendo and Sony have is that they already nurture a group of people who are willing to buy $30-40 handheld games from the previous generations - people who pay $40 for a retail Monster Hunter or Dragon Quest. This is something Apple cannot do with their market and their downloadable-only device.

What Nintendo and Sony need to do is to expand their online market presence with more $2-3 PSN/DSshop games and have more sale from time to time. Microsoft and Sony seem to be doing much better lately with their frequent sale of games on PSN and Live. As long as they free up their online market, give it a better interface for the online shopping experience, and be less rigid in their sales and regulations, they can have the best of both world (high budget retail and cheap downloadables).

 

[minus_273]

Considering how often he's wrong I'm not worried about the PSP2 at all.

Actually, I read a lot of stuff pachter writes about other things, we pay for it and he is usually spot on.

 

[Green Biker Dude]

actually, given how bad the situation is for home consoles right now, maybe being a poor man's console isn't going to be that bad for the psp2. as long as sony doesn't try shit like paying for online gaming or allow crap like microtranstactions, the psp2 might be able to attract people who don't feel like support practices that became the norm this gen

big if, but as long as they cater to the right people and market/price it decently, i don't think the psp2 will flop as badly as everyone expects it to. even with all the problems the psp had, they still managed to get decent third party support after all these years of failures and the psp having no games