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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]
- Thread starter DaBargainHunta
- Start date
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
PSP2: "Pachter will be useless on arrival"
Personally I couldn't care less what Pacther thinks, I'm still getting some fantastic fun out of my psp, and am seriously looking forward to Tactics Ogre in the new year.
The PSP2 also holds far more interest to me than the 3ds, which tbh just sounds like a fisher price toy with an extra layer of spangle on it, and will probably repeat the same sort of release behavior that all of nintendos machines seem to go by. Which is a big issue for me.
The PSP2 also holds far more interest to me than the 3ds, which tbh just sounds like a fisher price toy with an extra layer of spangle on it, and will probably repeat the same sort of release behavior that all of nintendos machines seem to go by. Which is a big issue for me.
I was stuck at work 'training' a new guy with absolutely nothing to do. I played Rimelands on my iphone the entire time. Great game. What do I need a PSP2 for? To play games that are better on my PS3? There are some people who spend a lot of time with their handhelds, but outside of Monster Hunter that's a Nintendo-dominated market. If they could get Capcom to switch sides, PSP2 would be doomed in every region.
nextgeneration
Member
Whether or not Pachter is wrong here, he is right about one thing. Apple will continue to erode and eat into both Nintendo and Sony's handheld marketshare.
Patrick Bateman
Member
:lolDoor2Dawn said:
True true. Dude's an idiot.
People don't play the same games on a PSP as they would/could on an iPhone.
The lack of a digipad and buttons is a thing why you can't compare both..
PSP2 and 3DS will sell millions.
ShockingAlberto
Member
The audiences for iDevice games and for traditional games exist.
One could graduate to traditional games or prefer the convenience and cost of iDevice games.
No one knows how far it will swing either way, or even if it will only swing once.
Anyone who is saying they know for sure which way it will go is lying or is stricken with hubris.
One could graduate to traditional games or prefer the convenience and cost of iDevice games.
No one knows how far it will swing either way, or even if it will only swing once.
Anyone who is saying they know for sure which way it will go is lying or is stricken with hubris.
Pureauthor
Member
ShockingAlberto said:
Does your name come from Giant Robo? Just wondering.
That aside, I don't agree with Pachter's premise. Thus far, we've not seen the traditional handheld market shrinking. If we can see signs of 3DS adoption not going at the same rate of the DS then predictions about iOS devices taking center stage would make more sense.
ShockingAlberto
Member
Yup. Not the biggest fan, but I liked the name a lot.Pureauthor said:
SonOfABeep
Banned
The audience for both exists but the audience for traditional handheld games is largely due to long running portable Nintendo franchises.
There's a smaller fragment of a fragment group that the PSP2 is good for but I believe they're too small a minority to justify the investment Sony makes into these uber-powerful handheld devices.
It will do well in japan if Monster Hunter stays on that system (and Nintendo better be kissing Capcom's ass to get that changed) but in the US there's nothing so far that will make this do any better than the PSP's so-so performance.
There's a smaller fragment of a fragment group that the PSP2 is good for but I believe they're too small a minority to justify the investment Sony makes into these uber-powerful handheld devices.
It will do well in japan if Monster Hunter stays on that system (and Nintendo better be kissing Capcom's ass to get that changed) but in the US there's nothing so far that will make this do any better than the PSP's so-so performance.
Always-honest
Banned
i have the same feeling, but if this device turns out to be totally rad kick ass da bomb, people will buy it.
DaBargainHunta said:
That means PSP2 will sell like gangbusters. Remember the dead on arrival rule. If its doa, it's actually going to blow you away.
As for ipod touch threat, I don't think the unit itself is the threat, Ipod touch is still largely selling as a music/media/pda type device with the added bonus for games. That makes a huge difference. That said, I think the delivery system for portable games should move much more rapidly to a digital download centric format (though not exclusively DD), and I'm not sure if Nintendo is prepared to do it.
Cheap games is well and good, but it also means markets are tiny and your top softwarehouse is going to be measuring sales in tens of millions per quarter not the hundreds of millions. And you need that kind of scale to produce the kind of games required to make something that isn't a dumping ground for mee too titles. Also it puts the premium priced titles on the same platform at a huge disadvantage.
I'm not quite sure what the answer is yet, but some kind of cloud based gaming model might work, where you rent /loan digital copies of games to play /try in shorter spurts, while paying full price ($20-30) for games you want to keep.
antiquegamer
Member
evilromero said:
I mention similar observation that all my kids' friends all sporting either iPhone or iPod and that they all move on from PSP/DS. I don't remember last time I see my kids playing with their DS or PSP since I gave them the iPhones (old used one btw). I was told by Gaf that I am crazy for making such observation ... my nieces and nephew during the past year when they come up for visit no longer pack the DS but instead the iPod touch or iPhone.
I thought compact digital cameras would die out as well, when the phones began including a camera. Look how well that prediction went. I have no hope that the iPhone or any phone whatsoever will be able to do everything as good as a standalone device specifically built for its use.
A compact digital camera will ALWAYS be better than the camera on a phone.
A dedicated MP3/music player will ALWAYS be better than the player on a phone.
A handheld gaming device will ALWAYS be better than the games on a phone.
Why? Because a phone has to share its power between all these features (outside of it being a phone of course). A dedicated device will always be better for its purpose than any hybrid will ever be able to, unless the developers travel into the future to pick up components to build it.
A compact digital camera will ALWAYS be better than the camera on a phone.
A dedicated MP3/music player will ALWAYS be better than the player on a phone.
A handheld gaming device will ALWAYS be better than the games on a phone.
Why? Because a phone has to share its power between all these features (outside of it being a phone of course). A dedicated device will always be better for its purpose than any hybrid will ever be able to, unless the developers travel into the future to pick up components to build it.
Dear god, always with the 'how can you make a profit from $4 games'.
I don't know what percentage of the retail price of a console/handheld game devs get, but I'm going to guess its significantly lower than the 70% Apple gives App Store developers.
Digital Distribution and retail are so completely different systems it's ridiculous to compare prices across them.
I wouldn't really say there are many portable media players that are better than an iPhone, especially an iPhone with VLC.
I don't know what percentage of the retail price of a console/handheld game devs get, but I'm going to guess its significantly lower than the 70% Apple gives App Store developers.
Digital Distribution and retail are so completely different systems it's ridiculous to compare prices across them.
I wouldn't really say there are many portable media players that are better than an iPhone, especially an iPhone with VLC.
PuppetSlave
Member
Well who knows what will happen, he who lives will see. But ignoring the limitations of touch screens in the gaming sense seems a tad foolish.
I guess if the general population(as in not really dedicated gamers) does not care enough about those limitations then it could be a serious threat to 3DS and PSP2. Angry birds is a pretty fun game I have to admit even though I have played similar free flash games before.
PSP served a role as a media player as well though didn't it? It was not only piracy that limited peoples game buying on the thing. I know people who simply used it as a way to watch media. This could hamper sales.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
I guess if the general population(as in not really dedicated gamers) does not care enough about those limitations then it could be a serious threat to 3DS and PSP2. Angry birds is a pretty fun game I have to admit even though I have played similar free flash games before.
PSP served a role as a media player as well though didn't it? It was not only piracy that limited peoples game buying on the thing. I know people who simply used it as a way to watch media. This could hamper sales.
It will be interesting to see what happens.
Opus Angelorum
Member
There is some truth in what he is saying, regarding the iPhone/iPod Touch.
My step-son for the last three or four years has always asked for a couple of DS games, and one for the Xbox 360/PS3.
This year all he wants is an iTunes voucher. And I'm more than happy as he can get 20 or 30 games for the same amount of money.
My step-son for the last three or four years has always asked for a couple of DS games, and one for the Xbox 360/PS3.
This year all he wants is an iTunes voucher. And I'm more than happy as he can get 20 or 30 games for the same amount of money.
I don't know. I mean, all my little cousins have iPod Touch's and so on, and it's cool to play the same games as they do on there on my iPhone and that, but I still see them doing most of their non gimmicky solid gaming on the PSP, DS or consoles.
I realise it's purely anecdotal, but I guess my younger cousin anyway still seems to prefer his RPG's on the handhelds, mainly because of the use of buttons from what I can gather.
I realise it's purely anecdotal, but I guess my younger cousin anyway still seems to prefer his RPG's on the handhelds, mainly because of the use of buttons from what I can gather.
Here's the odd thing. The iphone 4 has a really good camera. It's actually better as a camera than a phone. Heck, all the iphones are shitty phones, but they sell because people can get all these extra features in one device. Now there will always be those who want a device dedicated to one purpose, but from what I've seen this last year or so, that market is shrinking, while devices like the ipad sell buttloads. As a music player, it's superior to a standalone device because of all the music apps.StarEye said:
The idevice game market is still changing and expanding. This time last year it was almost all flash-type games, now you have developers like Epic and id jumping on board. Square is going to be putting Final Fantasy Tactics on the thing. While I don't think it'll ever match the scale of the better DS and PSP games, but it's closing that gap pretty quickly.nib95 said:
AdventureRacing
Member
Where has this idea come from that the handheld market is going to shrink? This gen the DS and PSP already had to compete with the i devices (obviously not as strong as they are now).
What did we see?
A fucking huge increase in the size of the protable gaming market. The DS alone has sold far better than any previous handheld (and is still selling well). Add on the 60 million or so PSP's and it's a massive difference.
What did we see?
A fucking huge increase in the size of the protable gaming market. The DS alone has sold far better than any previous handheld (and is still selling well). Add on the 60 million or so PSP's and it's a massive difference.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Since buying my iPod Touch I pretty much have ignored my PSP and DS. I had to hunt down my DS charger the other day for a road trip and couldn't find it and to tell you the truth.... I don't even think I know where my PSP unit is right now. But, my iPod Touch is sitting right next to me.
I think Apple is taking a huge chunk from the portable market but PSP/2 isn't DOA I think. The Virtual Boy was DOA.
I think Apple is taking a huge chunk from the portable market but PSP/2 isn't DOA I think. The Virtual Boy was DOA.
MarkMclovin
Member
If Pachter said it, then it's ok guys.
ID jumped on board in 2008 - and fundamentally the question isn't who supports it (pretty much everyone does by now), but how - noone has been willing to risk larger scale investment for a project - Epic's could be the first(too early to tell still, though it's certainly higher budget then most), and there's no telling whether that can/will make a return.Aaron said:
ShinNL
Member
If someone wants an MP3 player they might settle for an iTouch/iPhone instead of a dedicated MP3 player.
Oh, for a little more I can have more functionality.
If someone wants a camera they definitely won't settle for an iTouch/iPhone.
I need a camera for my vacation trip... let's get an iDevice? Haha, just kidding.
If someone wants games, the last thing that person would think is getting an iTouch/iPhone.
I wonder where I can play games that last longer than 5 minutes?
PSP2's biggest competition will be the 3DS. Polls are showing kids are already wanting it despite there being no advertisements yet. The 3DS is going to make people want to spend their time on it. Have you ever seen someone play games on their iDevices in non-waiting situations? That's the difference.
Games in general is not a format like MP3s and videos that are played on multiple devices. It's exclusive. If people lean over and watch you play a game they're interested in, they know they can't get it on a different device.
People don't go: Oh, those puppies are so cute in Nintendogs! I'll fire up Angry Birds now.
That makes no sense.
Oh, for a little more I can have more functionality.
If someone wants a camera they definitely won't settle for an iTouch/iPhone.
I need a camera for my vacation trip... let's get an iDevice? Haha, just kidding.
If someone wants games, the last thing that person would think is getting an iTouch/iPhone.
I wonder where I can play games that last longer than 5 minutes?
PSP2's biggest competition will be the 3DS. Polls are showing kids are already wanting it despite there being no advertisements yet. The 3DS is going to make people want to spend their time on it. Have you ever seen someone play games on their iDevices in non-waiting situations? That's the difference.
Games in general is not a format like MP3s and videos that are played on multiple devices. It's exclusive. If people lean over and watch you play a game they're interested in, they know they can't get it on a different device.
People don't go: Oh, those puppies are so cute in Nintendogs! I'll fire up Angry Birds now.
That makes no sense.
Computers are pretty much the ultimate hybrid. Smartphones are basically mini computers now. They have the ability to be better than dedicated handhels just a few things are holding them back like devs getting on board. Phones get updates yearly so power sharing between features is not much of a problem.StarEye said:
So I think it is a little reaching to say ALWAYS. If someone was offered an iPhone or dedicated mp3 player what do you think they would choose?
I don't know how the psp2 is going to do but it's hard to argue the competition they are up against, not going to be easy on them.
antiquegamer
Member
rezuth said:
Sadly I think this is the case.
Nick Laslett
Member
Outside of Japan the PSP2 will be dead on arrival.
The PSP was a great piece of hardware and Sony launched it when they were at the top.
It was a success, but not one that Sony can successfully build on.
I got a Japanese launch PSP, my wife and two kids both have PSPs. I think the PSP is a great device.
But for most people the iPod touch is the way to go.
It is really fraustrating that Sony basically blew the OS software side of the PSP, by not giving it enough RAM. The PSP web browser sucks in comparision to the iPod Touch. The way that movies and music work on the PSP sucks in comparision to the iPod Tound.
The PSN took way too long to arrive on the PSP, the Minis took too long. Even now browsing Mini's is a chore. A group of people with iPods, iPhone of Android phones get together and they start sharing what Apps they have. Then they go and buy more apps. This can't happen with the PSP.
The PSP was just too early to be an always connected device. No online music store, no online Movie store.
The PSPs in my house get a lot of use. But that is despite Sony. I put in the effort to do the DVD conversions, ripped all my kid's movies to the HDD, copied them onto memory sticks for them. Managed 8 different memory sticks for different content. Hand crafted the music folder on the memory stick from the PC to actually create albums. Loaded photos. Bought loads of UMD movies because I actually wanted a decent portable movie playing device. Loaded New York and London Subway maps as jpegs. Bought the PSP Camera. Went through the pain of setting up the web radio app, setup Skype. Used the BT Go app. Bought the component cable so that we could watch movies in Hotel rooms. Had a Sony Digtial Camera so that we could just pop the memory stick in the PSP and use it as a photo viewer.
We used to use the PSPs a lot for plane journeys. But now the inflight entertainment systems are so good there is no need.
I will keep the PSP flag flying for now, even though my kids both want iPod touches, but I can't see myself upgrading to the PSP2. The games on the PSP are actually great, it's the other stuff that lets it down. As I only use my PSP when travelling, there is actually plenty of games I can still enjoy.
It was a great device, way way ahead of it's time, but Sony are not on top any more and I don't see how they can afford to push the PSP2 in the way it needs to compete with 3DS on one hand and Apple iTunes on the other.
I do hope Sony get one thing right and have the PS2 emulation in the device from day one and launch with a PS2 store, well stocked with titles. The hard core gamer will flock to the PSP2 if we get PS2 games on the move in addition to PSOne and PSP titles.
The PSP was a great piece of hardware and Sony launched it when they were at the top.
It was a success, but not one that Sony can successfully build on.
I got a Japanese launch PSP, my wife and two kids both have PSPs. I think the PSP is a great device.
But for most people the iPod touch is the way to go.
It is really fraustrating that Sony basically blew the OS software side of the PSP, by not giving it enough RAM. The PSP web browser sucks in comparision to the iPod Touch. The way that movies and music work on the PSP sucks in comparision to the iPod Tound.
The PSN took way too long to arrive on the PSP, the Minis took too long. Even now browsing Mini's is a chore. A group of people with iPods, iPhone of Android phones get together and they start sharing what Apps they have. Then they go and buy more apps. This can't happen with the PSP.
The PSP was just too early to be an always connected device. No online music store, no online Movie store.
The PSPs in my house get a lot of use. But that is despite Sony. I put in the effort to do the DVD conversions, ripped all my kid's movies to the HDD, copied them onto memory sticks for them. Managed 8 different memory sticks for different content. Hand crafted the music folder on the memory stick from the PC to actually create albums. Loaded photos. Bought loads of UMD movies because I actually wanted a decent portable movie playing device. Loaded New York and London Subway maps as jpegs. Bought the PSP Camera. Went through the pain of setting up the web radio app, setup Skype. Used the BT Go app. Bought the component cable so that we could watch movies in Hotel rooms. Had a Sony Digtial Camera so that we could just pop the memory stick in the PSP and use it as a photo viewer.
We used to use the PSPs a lot for plane journeys. But now the inflight entertainment systems are so good there is no need.
I will keep the PSP flag flying for now, even though my kids both want iPod touches, but I can't see myself upgrading to the PSP2. The games on the PSP are actually great, it's the other stuff that lets it down. As I only use my PSP when travelling, there is actually plenty of games I can still enjoy.
It was a great device, way way ahead of it's time, but Sony are not on top any more and I don't see how they can afford to push the PSP2 in the way it needs to compete with 3DS on one hand and Apple iTunes on the other.
I do hope Sony get one thing right and have the PS2 emulation in the device from day one and launch with a PS2 store, well stocked with titles. The hard core gamer will flock to the PSP2 if we get PS2 games on the move in addition to PSOne and PSP titles.
ShinNL
Member
During a time when the 3DS isn't out yet and has no advertisements? Gosh, I would never have guessed. But kids choosing a next year product out of a list of everything, including the iPod and iPad (lol iPad, is this even part of the discussion?), you should at least think a little bit ahead and know something is up.rezuth said:
No need to think, there was a survey. You'd be surprised how many kids know about the 3DS already.antiquegamer said:
Consider that this is without a big marketing push yet.
BloodySinner
Banned
How many of you would have even read the interview were it not for the superfluous thread title? Either way, I don't understand why NeoGAF gets butthurt from Pachter's comments. Always acting as if he insulted your mothers.
Castor Krieg
Banned
rezuth said:
So? Kids want all sort of shit, it's up to their parents to buy it for them, and I don't see parents rushing to buy their kids iPads, nor iPhones. iPods maybe.
This survey is useless and metrics faulty, even the headlien reads "Interest of buying". Kids don't buy anythign themselves. Correct question would be: "Of all the things you think your parents might get you, which is the one you would like to get the most?". Not to mention running a survey for kids 6-12 is retarded in the first place, way better to make it 12-15.
I have t agree that unless the PSP 2 secretly has some unique feature to focus its advertising campaign around beyond improved graphics/dual analogue, then it'll really struggle maintain sales after a few months. I'm sure it'll still have early adopters for sure, but in the mid to long term it will struggle without a strong identity. Especially if it falls between the 3DS and iPhone/iPod Touch price-wise.
the 3DS is safe. It'll get TONS of free advertising on top of what will likely be a aggressive TV campaign and a lower price compared to the iDevices. The word of mouth effect is going to be extra strong compared to the Wii since it's easier to carry one with you and people will be less inclined to share one between a household.
the 3DS is safe. It'll get TONS of free advertising on top of what will likely be a aggressive TV campaign and a lower price compared to the iDevices. The word of mouth effect is going to be extra strong compared to the Wii since it's easier to carry one with you and people will be less inclined to share one between a household.
antiquegamer
Member
Castor Krieg said:
I was shock when my daughter 10 and my son who is 13 tell me how many of their friends have iPod touch and iPhone. I would never buy my kids the touch or the iPhone but they were lucky that they have aunt and uncle who are Apple fanatics and gave them old iPod and iPhone.
I lent my digital camera to my parents when they went on a trip. My mom used her iphone 4 instead. Unless you're a photo geek, the pictures it takes are amazing. Like I said before, I was stuck at work for eight hours with nothing to do. I played a turned based RPG on my iphone almost the entire time. Rimelands. It's a 20 hour game and a solid RPG. Your conceptions are about a year out of date. In another year, they'll seem baffling.Soneet said:
As usual, I'm in agreement with the chap.
I love my PSP, I bought a PSP Go (so I have a lot of legacy PSN content) and I'm firmly in the demographic for the PSP2. The last 6 months, however, I've found myself spending more time playing my iPhone than my PSP. The games are getting far better, they tend to be better suited to portable gaming and whereas I have to remember to take my PSP with me, my phone already goes everywhere that I do.
All it would really take for me to forget about the PSP2 would be underwhelming hardware specs and a lackluster launch. I get my 'proper' gaming from my PC, PS3 & 360, the iPhone takes care of everything else. Gonna buy a 3DS though, I'm a sucker for 3D. I'll probably play OoT and then bang it on a shelf.
I love my PSP, I bought a PSP Go (so I have a lot of legacy PSN content) and I'm firmly in the demographic for the PSP2. The last 6 months, however, I've found myself spending more time playing my iPhone than my PSP. The games are getting far better, they tend to be better suited to portable gaming and whereas I have to remember to take my PSP with me, my phone already goes everywhere that I do.
All it would really take for me to forget about the PSP2 would be underwhelming hardware specs and a lackluster launch. I get my 'proper' gaming from my PC, PS3 & 360, the iPhone takes care of everything else. Gonna buy a 3DS though, I'm a sucker for 3D. I'll probably play OoT and then bang it on a shelf.
There's definitely plenty of scope to build a business around dedicated game handhelds for the quite some time.
But more and more is happening to make me wonder about the inevitable convergence of even more serious 'dedicated' type of gaming onto smart devices.
Android 2.3 is somewhat subtly significant here - adding support for real game controls. That suggests in time you could have numerous Android devices with 'real' controls on the market - translating ultimately into perhaps many millions of users.
With such devices with real game controls - you effectively do have machines capable of providing the same gaming experience as your PSP has. The big question is whether developers will be able to shift that experience onto those devices at the kind of prices they've been able to support on dedicated systems. It raises the question also of for how long dedicated devices will be able to stay ahead of smartphones in terms of the experience they can deliver.
Sony's strategy seems to be particularly odd though. They basically seem to be somewhat hedging their bets, both supporting Android with Playstation-branded machines as well as soldiering on with their own proprietary platform. I don't know if that's sustainable in the long term? What happens when in even just a couple of years, there's Android devices out there - perhaps Playstation branded ones among them - that can play games that look just as good as PSP2 games? Isn't there kind of a conflict there?
But more and more is happening to make me wonder about the inevitable convergence of even more serious 'dedicated' type of gaming onto smart devices.
Android 2.3 is somewhat subtly significant here - adding support for real game controls. That suggests in time you could have numerous Android devices with 'real' controls on the market - translating ultimately into perhaps many millions of users.
With such devices with real game controls - you effectively do have machines capable of providing the same gaming experience as your PSP has. The big question is whether developers will be able to shift that experience onto those devices at the kind of prices they've been able to support on dedicated systems. It raises the question also of for how long dedicated devices will be able to stay ahead of smartphones in terms of the experience they can deliver.
Sony's strategy seems to be particularly odd though. They basically seem to be somewhat hedging their bets, both supporting Android with Playstation-branded machines as well as soldiering on with their own proprietary platform. I don't know if that's sustainable in the long term? What happens when in even just a couple of years, there's Android devices out there - perhaps Playstation branded ones among them - that can play games that look just as good as PSP2 games? Isn't there kind of a conflict there?
Haunted
Member
The price differential between DS/PSP and iOS/Android games is indeed a large source of concern for many.
It's very hard to pitch a big effort, big budget (comparatively speaking, obviously) game on the iOS/Android platforms because you have to sell a ridiculous amount to break even at those low prices (< 10).
So in that way, the DS/PSP are "safe" to provide these kinds of games on the platforms.
Pachter's Tetris reference is pretty much spot on for these types of games.
It's very hard to pitch a big effort, big budget (comparatively speaking, obviously) game on the iOS/Android platforms because you have to sell a ridiculous amount to break even at those low prices (< 10).
So in that way, the DS/PSP are "safe" to provide these kinds of games on the platforms.
Pachter's Tetris reference is pretty much spot on for these types of games.
No, but Michael Pachter is.Anasui Kishibe said:
Graphics Horse
Member
Haunted said:
Indeed, but the market has already changed in that regard. It's not like 3DSware and PSP2minis won't be providing those type of games.
I think the 3DS should do well but not sell nearly as many units in the long term. These days the DSi is advertised as a defice for the elderly and infirm, I'm not convinced the same thing will work this time!
It's pointless talking about the PSP2 because it is a completely unkown quantity right now. I'm not even sure if it's guaranteed to have physical media?
Patrick Bateman
Member
I wonder if Sony and Nintendo will set up some kind of App store for small, cheap games playable on the PSP2 or 3DS. That would be one option to get those customers who like Apple's concept.