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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]
- Thread starter DaBargainHunta
- Start date
Gram Negative Cocci
Member
DaBuddaDa said:
What planet do you live on? They've sold in the millions, yes, but its a HUGE CATASTROPHIC DECLINE from where they once were. PSP, worldwide, has faded entirely into a non factor with the exception of Japan.
Vinterbird
Member
Varth said:
Pachter can't predict the future, but you would have had to be insane to think that Borderlands would have become the hit it is today. Him saying it was gonna tank was not a controversial statement, it was logic speaking.
Huge catastrophic decline is irrelevant. Nintendo had a huge catastrophic decline too back during the turn of the century. The point is, their products aren't failures, they're profitable and have sold millions worldwide. You seem to subscribe to the mindset that "if you're not in 1st place, you are an utter failure and should give up." If you have a product that sells over 42 million units worldwide and is profitable, why would you drop the project and not make a successor? Because some other guy has sold 45 million units of a similar product?Gram Negative Cocci said:
Gram Negative Cocci said:
His point is that the home console business, in particular, is still attracting enough of an audience that - with the right cost base - it can still lucrative enough to make it a going concern for Sony. I think it's pretty obvious Sony intends to continue the Playstation line.
And PSP, whether it had been a huge success or not, would be fading now anyway. But it is and was a marked improvement over the nothing Sony had in the mobile gaming space before.
Sony seems to be changing strategy in the mobile space though. They seem to be, to varying degrees, backing two horses. You could perhaps argue that this is an admission on their part that continuing with their own proprietary platform, exclusively anyway, isn't going to get them where they want to be...but for now at least, they still seem to be holding out hope for the viability another dedicated, proprietary platform.
DaBuddaDa said:
Exactly. Sony is NOT going to pack it up and call it quits because it lost the sales war to the DS. I've bought both because each gives me a different gaming experience. Considering this was Sony's first dance in the handheld market, I'm quite impressed with those sales figures (hardware). Software on the other hand ...
I don't believe dead on arrival, but it's an uphill battle. Being a multimedia machine is going to be a mute point this time around. They'll have to rely on software, which to be blunt. PSP has been the worst system in years for. It's heavily swung to JRPGs, the genre that has decayed the most in the west. And the bulk of their first party line up, has consisted of watered down PS2 affairs.
This is such an epic troll. What would happen if Pachter -- or any other GAF member for that matter -- posted the exact text as quoted as an OP? Bannings? Junior status?
A couple points to make:
At the start of each round, all chips go back to the bank. 3DS install base = zero right now. It's not moving software just yet. Don't take anything for granted. Just look what happened to the PS3. Speaking of which, the 3DS price is kind of high, too.
(assuming the 3DS is the prime competitor for the PSP2 here)
Remember how super-excited we all were for the PSP and its rosy future across the globe when it was first announced? Remember how super-excited we all were for Nintendo's Wii lineup after E3, after seeing Metroid Other M, Kirby and Donkey Kong Returns? And where exactly are we now? Much can change once the products come out.
Bonus: US-based analysts (and pundits) keep underestimating the PSP. No, it doesn't top your charts. It still moves software though, under your radar, and across the seven seas. 45 million units in FY'09, and it will probably show some growth in the current fiscal year.
A couple points to make:
At the start of each round, all chips go back to the bank. 3DS install base = zero right now. It's not moving software just yet. Don't take anything for granted. Just look what happened to the PS3. Speaking of which, the 3DS price is kind of high, too.
(assuming the 3DS is the prime competitor for the PSP2 here)
Remember how super-excited we all were for the PSP and its rosy future across the globe when it was first announced? Remember how super-excited we all were for Nintendo's Wii lineup after E3, after seeing Metroid Other M, Kirby and Donkey Kong Returns? And where exactly are we now? Much can change once the products come out.
Bonus: US-based analysts (and pundits) keep underestimating the PSP. No, it doesn't top your charts. It still moves software though, under your radar, and across the seven seas. 45 million units in FY'09, and it will probably show some growth in the current fiscal year.
It's not surprising - part of the success of NDS was the fact that it looked less 'gamey' when used in public because of the stylus.SeanR1221 said:
But I disgress, somebody needs to make a Trojan App that broadcasts what people do on their phone to any BT or WiFi device in the radius
SonOfABeep
Banned
MightyKAC said:
Japan matters but success in japan alone isn't enough to keep publishers interested in a platform worldwide.
How many non-japanese PSP releases do you see from the last 6 months, during the busiest release schedule of the year?
You guys can cry all you want about how pachter sucks but he's probably right about this one.
Nintendo will probably always do fine due to the nature of their exclusives and quality/fanbase of their first party. Even the gamecube, which struggled from day one with 3rd party and superior competition, did fine and made a profit due to their strong first party lineup and their solid fanbase.
ScrabbleBanshee
Member
Handheld doesn't work for me any more.
I have a PSP I don't use. A DS I don't use. An Android phone that I never play games on and once upon a stupid time I owned an iPhone that I couldn't stand to do anything with - particularly play games on.
I have a PSP I don't use. A DS I don't use. An Android phone that I never play games on and once upon a stupid time I owned an iPhone that I couldn't stand to do anything with - particularly play games on.
Rolf NB said:
What, there was something wrong with those games? Also just because something can happen doesn't mean it will. Sony didn't take a beating this generation by accident but because Microsoft and Nintendo really got in touch with what the mainstream consumer wanted. Sony is actually going to have to show how they are going to compete going forward, but until then its not ridiculous for someone to assume that they are going to face decline.
Rolf NB said:
Man, you are transparent.
First of all, no one has been banned from Gaf as far as I know (which is not much, but anyway) for stating any opinion without trolling and in a proper thread, ofc. There is nothing trolling about saying you have reasons to believe PSP2 is gonna fail and stating them.
Moving on. PS3 failed on riding the success of what was the best console (non-handheld) in all time, the PS2. When 599$ was announced, and the kinda weak launch lineup, signs showed. And there was an already rolling rival, an Xbox 360. With 3DS's case, it does not matter how non-excited or pessimistic you might be, never before has the industry supported a handheld console with so much development and anticipation: NEVER before. It is unified, developers, publishers, journalists, even gamers: EVERYONE waits for the 3DS. It simply will not fail, if the tech works. That is about its first 2 years, at least. PSP2 however, lacks a formal announcement and lacks every info on how Sony wants to correct their huge mistakes with the previous iteration of the PSP brand. Until that happens..well, it is bound to be unsuccessful to say the least.
And Nintendo already, months before launch, has a massive out pour of announced third party support. I don't remember it being as such with the DS launch. That might be a bad sign for the PSP2 that third party devs seem to be embracing the 3DS as the "next big thing" so soon.SonOfABeep said:
While Pachter does have a point about flood of free and cheap games, he is off-base that portables such as the PSP2 cannot offer higher-end games that consumers are willing to pay more for.
Based on the information available so far, Sony seems to be aiming to bring the PSP2 into the mainstream development environment. So developers won't need to give the PSP2 exclusive attention, rather they can be developed in parallel, using downscaled assets as 360/PS3. The possibility opens up for being able to play downscaled ports of console titles, such as CoD campaigns, Borderlands, SF4, etc on the PSP2 with reasonable level of graphics infidelity.
But I'd agree with Pachter that high-budget PSP2-exclusive games are virtually dead in the water. To expect developer to make games for the PSP2 in a similar fashion as the PSP (or even the 3DS) is a dead end. In most cases third-party tools will be the name of the game. There isn't enough developer attention nor resources, given the plethora of platforms and micro-platforms (Kinect) on the market, to build a PSP2 game from the ground up.
At the same time, the iOS doesn't have the business case to support high-budget AAA titles that core games are used to. Even if the Apple's devices approaches the power of the PSP2 in time, fundamentally the controls don't exist to accommodate those types of game.
The failure of Pachter is that he doesn't accurately predict what Sony is trying to do with the PSP2.
Based on the information available so far, Sony seems to be aiming to bring the PSP2 into the mainstream development environment. So developers won't need to give the PSP2 exclusive attention, rather they can be developed in parallel, using downscaled assets as 360/PS3. The possibility opens up for being able to play downscaled ports of console titles, such as CoD campaigns, Borderlands, SF4, etc on the PSP2 with reasonable level of graphics infidelity.
But I'd agree with Pachter that high-budget PSP2-exclusive games are virtually dead in the water. To expect developer to make games for the PSP2 in a similar fashion as the PSP (or even the 3DS) is a dead end. In most cases third-party tools will be the name of the game. There isn't enough developer attention nor resources, given the plethora of platforms and micro-platforms (Kinect) on the market, to build a PSP2 game from the ground up.
At the same time, the iOS doesn't have the business case to support high-budget AAA titles that core games are used to. Even if the Apple's devices approaches the power of the PSP2 in time, fundamentally the controls don't exist to accommodate those types of game.
The failure of Pachter is that he doesn't accurately predict what Sony is trying to do with the PSP2.
TouchMyBox
Member
As someone who was extremely passionate about both the DS and PSP, I find myself more intrigued by the fantasy of a next-gen iPad than a mystical PSP 2. Though while I find Pachter's reasoning sound, I believe it is far too early to write off the PSP 2 when we know literally nothing about it.
HamPster PamPster
Member
The PSP died for Matsuno's sins so he may rise again and give us Tactics Ogre
We can only pray that the PSP2 dies so we may have Final Fantasy Tactics 2, or god willing, Vagrant Story 2
We can only pray that the PSP2 dies so we may have Final Fantasy Tactics 2, or god willing, Vagrant Story 2
SonOfABeep
Banned
Doctor_No said:
So the PSP2 will survive because it will have reasonable ports of console games?
Sounds exactly like the PSP1 strategy. Why will people now decide they need to buy the same game again on a handheld when they decided they didn't care back in 2004?
Augemitbutter
Member
the NDS was dead on arrival too, wasn't it.
all the better.
all the better.
dacuk
Member
Exactly.To Far Away Times said:
There will be always a large group of gamers (call them "traditional", "hardcore" or whatever) whose tastes target complete, not shallow experiences and games that require real buttons to play (as me)
That does not have to discard the growing market of "casual", "quick-play", etc. games that iDevices appeal to.
yurinka
Member
iOS won't handle AAA home-console like games simply because it can't. It doesn't have retail games, so it can't have 1GB+ games like psp1 has. iOS games have size restrictions of a few MB because of 3G bandwith costs, download speed and quality, and internal storage limits (unlike PSP they can't be expanded with memory sticks).Doctor_No said:
Sony stated they will continue with retail games, even if they are going to remove UMD support. So I supouse they will sell PSP2 games in cards like DS does, in addition to digital games.
I think PSP2 will handle both some home console-like AAA games like PSP did. I think it will be easier than with PSP1 if PSP2 is more powerful and closer to PS3 since they would be able to rehash assets, part of engines, etc.
And obviously PSP2 can handle smaller, simpler and cheaper games, like the ones from iOS, DS, Minis, BC games, etc.
Patcher forgets that PSP1 sold 60+ millions worldwide and still is selling outside US.
FieryBalrog
Member
Playing games without buttons fucking sucks.
Playing Tetris without buttons fucking sucks (yes, I actually bought EA's Tetris game for the iPod).
If that's the future of handheld gaming count me out.
On the other hand Tetris DS was amazing, probably my favorite game on the DS period. Terrible example Pachter, I and many others would gladly pay 20 times the price on the DS.
Playing Tetris without buttons fucking sucks (yes, I actually bought EA's Tetris game for the iPod).
If that's the future of handheld gaming count me out.
On the other hand Tetris DS was amazing, probably my favorite game on the DS period. Terrible example Pachter, I and many others would gladly pay 20 times the price on the DS.
Graphics Horse
Member
Melfice7 said:First time i agree with Pach, i think Sony would be better off scraping the psp all together
On the other hand im known for having an unusual hatred for handhelds O:
They sold 1/3 of a million of the things this week. Even if they can only find a market in Japan for them, it's probably worth carrying on.
SonOfABeep
Banned
I honestly don't understand what Sony has to gain from staying in the handheld market.
PSP1 at least had the hope of starting a media format for portables.
PSP1 at least had the hope of starting a media format for portables.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Tetris is 5 dollars on the DSi store
Just throwing that out there
Just throwing that out there
Jonnyram said:
I'm really hoping this is the way forward. You can see it already with the PSP's component cables (even if the resulting image is blurry and only takes up half of your TV screen). Play some Ys 7 at work or in the coffee house on the portable, then hook it up my 40" plasma when I'm at home.
The PSP right now is quickly becoming my favorite console of the generation, 2011 looks to be an even better year than this one, too. So here's hoping that the PSP2 continues this momentum.
Graphics Horse
Member
SonOfABeep said:
Sony are pretty optimistic when it comes to their proprietry formats!
They were originally in it for the money weren't they? It's been a while but I don't remember PSone being sold as a cheap CD player.
That's not strictly true (or even loosely true). Although they tend to be the exception, there are plenty of 500MB+ games on the app store, and a couple that weigh in over a gig. I see no reason that a game possible on DS or PSP wouldn't be possible on iOS. Lego Harry Potter is a good example of a recent game that would have been perfectly at home on a 'traditional' handheld as a 'traditional' £25 release. It was £2.99.yurinka said:
MarshMellow96
Member
Teetris said:
Unless it's made by Nintendo, of course.
starchild excalibur
Member
I think he's wrong about the handheld market clamming up, but right about the fact that there probably are many people out there who may have bought a handheld at one point in time that are probably just content using an iPhone and Angry Birds for that sort of entertainment. The iPhone has definitely eaten into the market somewhat at least.
SonOfABeep said:
Higher cost of development will push development towards unified development centered around cross platform tools. This has changed since the ps2-psp1 days.
We are ultimately going to see a large range of games on both the psp2 and 3ds. Ranging from free/99 cent games distributed digitally and games distributed in physical media. The economics for selling sub $15-20 games distrubuted via physical media doesn't exist. Ultimately they will need to be fully fleshed out games to justify that price.
There is not going to be a single answer. Some developers will likely aim for the $5-10 range distribute digitally, some may offer free games that are ad-supported, we will see a lot of 'minis' that are ports of iOS games, some may offer direct console ports if their game is fitting. However, we shouldn't think of the psp2 one-dimensionally as being a platform for 99 cent games only, or high-priced psp1-style physical media based games only anymore.
yurinka
Member
Wow. Then it changed since I stopped developing iPhone games. I supouse with this size it should have the same amount of content than a PSP or DS game (features, stages, enemies, etc), unlike the "dumbed down" versions of console games I played (Spore, Metal Gear, Street Fighter IV, etc).SmokyDave said:
In this case now the controls and the monetization (selling less units at a far lower price) would be the main issue for iOS to handle traditional AAA home console like games (in certain genres, of course).
He is predicting the iPhone/iPad/Android and 3DS will fill the portable gaming space in the United States in the future, and there is no room in the United States market for a PSP2. Therefore, when the PSP2 launches in the United States, it will not catch on and die off quickly; "Dead on arrival."Teetris said:
How he is able to make this prediction with nobody knowing anything about what the PSP2 actually is is the big question I have. This prediction sounds like he is saying: "If the PSP2 is essentially the same as the PSP but with the usual graphical enhancements inherent to new hardware, it will fail in the United States."
Developers are investors too. If the United States market for the PSP2 is weak, then western developers might not want to invest in games for the platform.MightyKAC said: