H_Prestige
Banned
Can't say I disagree with him.
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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]
- Thread starter DaBargainHunta
- Start date
yurinka
Member
Not for Patcher, he's too US centric.MightyKAC said:
He even ignores GT5 when talking about best selling games of the year.
He ignores PS3 and PSP sales outside NA.
For him Move is going to be a failure even if it sells more than Kinect worldwide.
He thinks all the game companies have to charge for online play because it would make sense just for a single game (CoD).
He thinks Nintendo fails because they don't release WiiHD even if they don't need it because they have insane profits (less than before, but still insane).
He thinks iPhone/iPod/iPad are dominating both mobile phones and handheld consoles markets even if they are less than a 10% of 2009 worldwide sales of the mobile phone market and their install base are smaller than PSP and specially DS worldwide.
Valkyr Junkie
Member
MightyKAC said:
Yes for Sony, but a lot of the software companies that do gangbusters on PSP in Japan are Japan-only companies; so if they're not traded on the NYSE Pachter has no reason to cover these companies since his clients can't invest in them.
MightyKAC
Member
DaBuddaDa said:
Is that any different from whats happening now? Granted I'm sure that Sony wants more western Dev's on board with the PSP2, but last time I checked, the PSP had a damn fine library of games right now (and 2011 is looking pretty good too) without their support.
Now that I think on it, how many big named titles have western devs put out for the DS?
yurinka said:
Just look at a game like Galaxy on Fire 2. A fully featured 3D space combat/trading game with great graphics and at least 20 hours of gameplay. It easily could have been a full PSP retail game as is. Now that I think about it, GoF2, at $6.99, has as much content as Darkstar One, a similar game I paid $40 for on 360.
yurinka said:
The fundamental advantage of a device like the psp2/3ds, as you've described, are basic elements that have stayed with gaming; controls and physical media.
Large games still are difficult to distribute online, especially over a cellular network. Plopping in a 4GB cartridge is easy. And people that pay $30+ for a game doesn't want to play with touch screen buttons. I'm typing this on an iPad incidentally, and it's a compromise to deviate from standard input methods.
That's not to say that DD and touch based games aren't crucial, but in the same respect it's unreasonable to say that there is no market for more core games on handhelds beyond what the iOS offers.
Chinatown Wars is really the only "big" one. Not to say that there haven't been quality titles here and there, but Western publishers and developers by and large refuse to take handhelds seriously. That's not likely to change with the 3DS or the PSP2.MightyKAC said:
The argument isn't that there's no market now, so much as it is that that market will be either dead or just a niche in a few years. Granted, I don't buy that at all.Doctor_No said:
yurinka
Member
Well, and also consider even US is the biggest one, it isn't the only western market. There are games focused to EU only.MightyKAC said:
I say no. I think it's going to have the price of a high-end smartphone. So I assume we may see the infamous $599 again.AAK said:
Yep. Mobile phones and DS proved (even before the iOS devices) there is a multi billion market for shorter games with simpler controls (touchscreen, gyroscope), mainly because of who are their users and where and when play. And only pay few bucks for a game.Doctor_No said:
But there is a hardcore market who wants portables, that sometimes plays this kind of games, but want deeper experiences with more precise controls (buttons) and higher production values, only affordables by developers with higher prices, the ones these hardcore gamers see normal to pay.
PSP and Nintendo portables proved this hardcore handheld market also exists. And if we ignore the 3D, this is the main addition of the 3DS, current main hardcore 3rd party IPs going back to a Nintendo handheld in a non "dumbed down" way, something DS more or less missed and the PSP had.
Nintendo knows it and goes for it. And if they do, I doubt they think PSP has been a failure and the PSP2 is dead on arrival like Patcher says.
FoneBone said:
Not sure why some people are so worried about PSP2 support so. PSP is performing strong domestically, and PSP2 will probably enjoy strong Japanese pub support on the expectation that a successor will also do well there.
And indeed, it doesn't seem like western pubs are exactly falling over themselves to take 3DS seriously, at least relative to Japanese pubs. Looking at wikipedia's list of 3DS games announced to date, less than a third are coming from western pubs and most of their games are the usual licensed titles etc.
The US install base is "large" meaning it has been big enough to support the platform for 6+ years (that's a long time!) and is still being sold in stores now. Pachter's prediction of "dead on arrival" would mean in practice that the PSP2 would be off store shelves within 2 years of launch due to abysmal sales.MightyKAC said:
Diatribe1974
Member
FoneBone said:
Considering the rampant (and massive success) of iPad, iPod & Droid game sales? Seriously, do you have any idea of the potential of that market versus the handheld market when it relates to the ability of people to take their phone/handheld game device/mp3 player/movie player with them vs. their handheld gaming device?
yurinka said:
you think they can get away with that?
I think they'll be aiming for $250 max. there might be a "value added" bundle for 300 with some extra crap thrown in. they'll want to price it comparably to the base ipod touch (230) and the 3DS (250-ish?).
getting into (unsubsidized) smartphone pricing would be nuts for a gaming-focused machine. and for Sony to make the mistake of $599 twice in a row would be an unforgivable miscalculation of the market. shareholders would be rightfully pissed.
Graphics Horse
Member
DaBuddaDa said:
Absolutely not, if the quote is correct 'DOA' seems to apply as much to the PSP as the PSP2. Due to this rather wide ranging definition it gives him quite a high chance of his prophecy coming true whatever it sells. They don't call him Pachterdamus for nothing.
I'm not blind to the growth in smartphone gaming, no, but the argument that it's actively hurting dedicated gaming handhelds - or will in the near future -- seems to be based on little more than anecdotal evidence, wishful thinking, and denial of the differences between gaming content on the two categories of devices.DiatribeEQ said:
H_Prestige
Banned
PSP2 will be more expensive than the PS3 when it launches.
Father_Brain
Banned
gofreak said:
Really? Most of PSP's biggest Japanese exclusives - the MGS titles, Monster Hunter and its clones, nearly everything Square Enix has published for it - were acquired largely by default, because the vastly more successful DS simply wasn't powerful enough for them. It remains to be seen whether PSP2 will be able to retain a similar level of exclusive support, and while making any definitive prediction on that front would be premature, there are several signs that don't bode well for Sony (Level-5 and Capcom's announced 3DS support, SE putting the KH:BbS team on 3DS instead of PSP2).
yurinka
Member
The high-end iPhone doesn't cost $230, and the high-end Android phone doesn't cost $250. If you get a free one, without carrier contract, they are around $600.LCfiner said:
If they release a single PSP2 and it includes phone, I assume it will be priced like a high-end iPhone or a bit more expensive because it's supposed to be more powerful. Here is where the $599 makes sense.
If they release multiple PSP2 SKUs (without phone, smaller internal storage size), they can have something for $299, if PSP2 is really considerably more powerful than a 3DS and a $230 iPod Touch. Same would happen if there is a single SKU without phone and a small internal storage.
gofreak said:
The western devs are just being their regular dumb asses. As for Sony not worrying...well they should be big time because Nintendo has gone for the jugular. Nintendo has courted Capcom,Square enix,Konami,Atlas,Level 5 etc and all these publishers are releasing their best ip's on the 3ds.
The only reason the psp is doing well in Japan right now is because the ds couldnt and can't handle a game of monster hunters complexity and graphics but with the strength of the 3ds it will be possible for us to have a monster hunter for the 3ds
Sony has alot to be worried about and it has nothing to do with lack of western third party support and more to do with them sharing/loosing graphically complex game support in japan
Father_Brain said:
Oh there's no doubt that Sony will lose exclusivity on certain types of game that the PSP was able to hold exclusivity of. But I've had the impression from some that Sony would have a hard time getting a look in at all from pubs vs 3DS. I think it's fairly obvious there'll be quite a lot of multiplatform-ism, but I expect Sony won't have too hard a time ensuring games get to their system from these pubs.
yurinka said:
I know how much the unsubsidized phones cost. i said ipod touch very specifically as being 230 bucks.
and who says the psp2 will be a phone?
we know there's a sony android phone with some PSP functionality built in but it's a not a given at all that PSP2 will be a phone. I would say it would limit their market quite a bit by making it a phone. you gotta deal with contracts and data packages, etc.
that's a big reason why the ipod touch is around.
And, going one step further, I don't think Sony, as a company, has the ability to create a kickass phone that's also a kickass gaming device. their departments are too isolated and they have not shown the ability to converge all their separate departments into creating one well put together, multi purpose device.
the PSP2 should try to keep the price reasonable
Rollo Lawson
Banned
i can dig what he is saying...simply because the ideas of carrying around multiple portable devices and requiring wifi to get online are both starting to look pretty archaic.
badcrumble
Member
I agree that the intended audiences are very different, but I think that the notion of competition for pocketshare and free-time-per-day is a valid one to speculate about.FoneBone said:
yurinka
Member
About dev support, I think first we have to see the final tech specs and controls of PSP2.
I think if they are more or less similar to 3DS, we'll see a lot of PSP2+3DS multiplatform development like happened this gen in home consoles.
Just because their costs are rising for AAA hardcore handheld games and they have to pay it. Before, only the PSP was able to handle it. Now they will have 3DS and PSP2. And for these games, forget the $0.99 iphone price.
I think if they are more or less similar to 3DS, we'll see a lot of PSP2+3DS multiplatform development like happened this gen in home consoles.
Just because their costs are rising for AAA hardcore handheld games and they have to pay it. Before, only the PSP was able to handle it. Now they will have 3DS and PSP2. And for these games, forget the $0.99 iphone price.
flyinpiranha
Member
I agree as I have absolutely no interest in a PSP2. But that's purely anecdotal.
FoneBone said:
I would say that the 3DS represents the PSP2's greatest adversary, yes. But I don't think discounting mobile phones is reasonable either - at least at this point without more information as to how Sony is going to position the device. I'm with Tobor in feeling that, taken together, the 3DS and mobile devices are going to make Sony's job damn near impossible.
Rollo Lawson
Banned
Lonely1 said:
assuming the psp2 and 3ds will be as "dedicated" to gaming as their predecessors, then yes
badcrumble
Member
Yep. In my opinion, basically the one thing that can 'save' the PSP and keep it going along in a somewhat-more-distant second place is the handheld equivalent of the multiplatform PS360 ecosystem, and that's unlikely for an assortment of reasons.FoneBone said:
I think there's an argument to be made, though, that mobile-phone gaming has eliminated the possibility of a working 'second place' as the PSP has achieved.
Unless the PSP2 is designed to be a functional music player - and designed as such - then it might not be DOA, but it will certainly limit its potential. That seems obvious.
That's why a more refined slide-out design for the PSP2 makes the most sense. When it's closed, it could function as an iPod-type machine with a touch screen and connection to Qriocity/Music Unlimited, and then when it's open it functions as a PSP2. Maybe Sony could also have games/apps that could be played on the touch screen when the device is closed as well.
That's why a more refined slide-out design for the PSP2 makes the most sense. When it's closed, it could function as an iPod-type machine with a touch screen and connection to Qriocity/Music Unlimited, and then when it's open it functions as a PSP2. Maybe Sony could also have games/apps that could be played on the touch screen when the device is closed as well.